Apocalypse How

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Three-part series looking at existential threats to humanity.

Episode

Title

First
Broadcast

Repeated

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The Knockout Pulse

20201123

20201125 (R4)

In the first of a series looking at existential threats to humanity, Jolyon Jenkins asks whether an electromagnetic pulse bomb could send us literally back to the dark ages

The arrival of COVID has brought home to us just how vulnerable we are to external threats, but we've been lucky that it hasn't been a lot worse. So what else is out there that might hit us from nowhere? For many years, some campaigners, particularly on the American right, have been talking up the threat of a nuclear weapon, detonated high in the atmosphere, that could, according to a congressional commission, wipe out 90 per cent of the population in the first 12 months, by bringing down the electric grid and frying electronic devices. They claim that China, North Korea, Russia, and even some terrorist groups might be capable of staging such an attack.

Mainstream arms control experts don't give the idea much credence, but they rarely engage with the detail of the argument. So is this a real threat, or just the right's attempt to conjure up an apocalypse that can be survived if you have enough guns, food and defensible real estate?

Presenter and producer: Jolyon Jenkins

Jolyon Jenkins asks whether civilisation could be ended by a electromagnetic pulse bomb

Insectageddon

20201130

20201202 (R4)

Could our food supplies be at risk from a worldwide decline in pollinating insects? Much attention has been focused on honey bees, but bees are farmed species and their numbers are largely determined by the activities of beekeepers. Other wild pollinators could be at greater risk. In fact, by trying to protect honey bees, legislators may have made the situation worse for other insects, and reduced food security. Moreover, the majority of the world's crops do not rely on insects for pollination. And yet, long term data does seem to suggest that insect numbers are declining and that eventually the loss of biodiversity will have serious knock-on effects. Jolyon Jenkins tries to disentangle the competing claims.

Producer/presenter: Jolyon Jenkins

03 LAST

Death, By Dna

20201207

20201209 (R4)

Has DNA technology advanced so far that a rogue scientist, or even a biologically competent terrorist, could assemble a deadly pathogen from genetic sequences bought by mail order?

The complete genetic codes for some of nature's most lethal viruses, such as polio and smallpox, are publicly available. The technology for synthesising genes using this information has developed so fast in the past few years that it's not particularly hard to order fragments of the gene from commercial companies; and it's not very expensive either. Assembling the fragments into a complete live virus is hard, but researchers in Canada have succeeded with a pox virus, horsepox, and have published their results and methods.

Smallpox is one of the most deadly pathogens ever to strike humans. It was eliminated from the world in 1977, but now the door is open for it to be recreated in the lab, and even made resistant to the vaccines that we have for it. Little stands in the way of this other than the good sense of scientists, and the customer screening processes of DNA synthesis companies that sell genetic sequences. Is it time for the scientific community to rethink its approach to information, so that at least some of it remains unavailable to those with bad or foolish intentions?

Presenter/Producer: Jolyon Jenkins

Could a rogue scientist or a terrorist assemble a lethal pathogen from mail order genes?

Episodes

Episode	Title	First Broadcast	Repeated	Comments
01	The Knockout Pulse	20201123	20201125 (R4)	In the first of a series looking at existential threats to humanity, Jolyon Jenkins asks whether an electromagnetic pulse bomb could send us literally back to the dark ages The arrival of COVID has brought home to us just how vulnerable we are to external threats, but we've been lucky that it hasn't been a lot worse. So what else is out there that might hit us from nowhere? For many years, some campaigners, particularly on the American right, have been talking up the threat of a nuclear weapon, detonated high in the atmosphere, that could, according to a congressional commission, wipe out 90 per cent of the population in the first 12 months, by bringing down the electric grid and frying electronic devices. They claim that China, North Korea, Russia, and even some terrorist groups might be capable of staging such an attack. Mainstream arms control experts don't give the idea much credence, but they rarely engage with the detail of the argument. So is this a real threat, or just the right's attempt to conjure up an apocalypse that can be survived if you have enough guns, food and defensible real estate? Presenter and producer: Jolyon Jenkins Jolyon Jenkins asks whether civilisation could be ended by a electromagnetic pulse bomb
02	Insectageddon	20201130	20201202 (R4)	Could our food supplies be at risk from a worldwide decline in pollinating insects? Much attention has been focused on honey bees, but bees are farmed species and their numbers are largely determined by the activities of beekeepers. Other wild pollinators could be at greater risk. In fact, by trying to protect honey bees, legislators may have made the situation worse for other insects, and reduced food security. Moreover, the majority of the world's crops do not rely on insects for pollination. And yet, long term data does seem to suggest that insect numbers are declining and that eventually the loss of biodiversity will have serious knock-on effects. Jolyon Jenkins tries to disentangle the competing claims. Producer/presenter: Jolyon Jenkins
03 LAST	Death, By Dna	20201207	20201209 (R4)	Has DNA technology advanced so far that a rogue scientist, or even a biologically competent terrorist, could assemble a deadly pathogen from genetic sequences bought by mail order? The complete genetic codes for some of nature's most lethal viruses, such as polio and smallpox, are publicly available. The technology for synthesising genes using this information has developed so fast in the past few years that it's not particularly hard to order fragments of the gene from commercial companies; and it's not very expensive either. Assembling the fragments into a complete live virus is hard, but researchers in Canada have succeeded with a pox virus, horsepox, and have published their results and methods. Smallpox is one of the most deadly pathogens ever to strike humans. It was eliminated from the world in 1977, but now the door is open for it to be recreated in the lab, and even made resistant to the vaccines that we have for it. Little stands in the way of this other than the good sense of scientists, and the customer screening processes of DNA synthesis companies that sell genetic sequences. Is it time for the scientific community to rethink its approach to information, so that at least some of it remains unavailable to those with bad or foolish intentions? Presenter/Producer: Jolyon Jenkins Could a rogue scientist or a terrorist assemble a lethal pathogen from mail order genes?