At Your Own Peril

Episode

Title

First
Broadcast

Repeated

Comments

The Gamble

20250203

20250526 (R4)

The Ancient Romans had a passion for dice and would even consult them to predict the future, but despite a love of gambling - and a life of danger - they didn't have a theory of risk. Fate was in the hands of the gods.

With the discovery of probability during a game of chance between a French nobleman and two brilliant mathematicians in the middle of the 17th century, there was a revolution in human thought as, for the first time in history, we could calculate risk and begin to look - however dimly - into the future.

But did this give us mastery over our fate or simply the illusion of control? Is prediction an art or a science? Are the ‘superforecasters' of today like the oracles of the past? And how much are we simply gambling with our future, playing with dice while the volcano smokes in the distance.

Lucy Easthope is the co-founder of the After Disaster Network in the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience at the University of Durham, Professor in Mass Fatalities and Pandemics at the University of Bath and the author of When The Dust Settles.

[LISTEN NOW]

Cassandra

20250204

20250602 (R4)

The theory of risk that emerged from the Renaissance and Enlightenment was based on the idea of the individual as rational and self-interested - ‘homo economicus' - and decision-making as an objective science. But as Lucy Easthope discovers, risk is ultimately a subjective construct, and our perception of it is shaped not only by our psychology and feelings but by our beliefs and values.

Risk is political - which has a number of significant consequences for our management of risk, for if we can't agree on the risks that face us as a society then how are we supposed to prevent these hazards from becoming a disaster?

With the scientific and technological progress of the past few centuries, we've created new hazards that threaten our very survival and in this series, emergency planner and disaster recovery expert Lucy Easthope explores the history of risk to find out how it's understood, perceived and managed, and to ask how we can become more resilient as individuals, as a society and as a planet.

[LISTEN NOW]

The Great Tide

20250205

20250609 (R4)

The North Sea Flood of 1953 - the combination of a high spring tide and a storm surge which swept across the East Coast killing 307 people in England - was described as the worst natural disaster in Britain of the 20th century.

It was also the birth of modern risk management as the state began to recognise its increased responsibility - and accountability - in preventing future disasters.

From cost-benefit analysis and risk assessments to the insurance industry, Lucy Easthope finds out how we protect ourselves from these hazards, and whether there is ever such a thing as a ‘natural' disaster or if they are always the result of political choices.

[LISTEN NOW]

Show Me The Bodies

20250206

20250616 (R4)

Every few years, the government publishes the National Risk Register, a long list of the most serious short-term hazards that we face as a society.

But what happens when these acute risks are themselves the product of chronic risks? How do we deal with these long-term risks within the short-term cycle of politics? And why do we always wait until there is a disaster before we do anything?

As Lucy Easthope discovers, not acting is the same as acting - and when it comes to the prevention of a disaster like the COVID-19 pandemic or the Grenfell Tower fire, the consequences of not acting can be catastrophic.

[LISTEN NOW]

05 LAST

The Precipice

20250207

20250623 (R4)

The atomic bomb which would go on to destroy the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - marked not just the end of the Second World War but also a turning point in history as for the first time we had the ability to destroy life on Earth.

In this episode Lucy explores the subject of ‘existential risk', from nuclear war to artificial intelligence, to discover how in the effort to liberate ourselves from the constraints of nature we have created new hazards that threaten not only society but the environment upon which we depend for survival.

The greatest risk that faces us as a planet is undoubtedly climate change, but despite the overwhelming evidence of the human impact on the climate she finds out why we have done so little to mitigate this catastrophic threat.

[LISTEN NOW]

Episodes

Episode	Title	First Broadcast	Repeated	Comments
01	The Gamble	20250203	20250526 (R4)	The Ancient Romans had a passion for dice and would even consult them to predict the future, but despite a love of gambling - and a life of danger - they didn't have a theory of risk. Fate was in the hands of the gods. With the discovery of probability during a game of chance between a French nobleman and two brilliant mathematicians in the middle of the 17th century, there was a revolution in human thought as, for the first time in history, we could calculate risk and begin to look - however dimly - into the future. But did this give us mastery over our fate or simply the illusion of control? Is prediction an art or a science? Are the ‘superforecasters' of today like the oracles of the past? And how much are we simply gambling with our future, playing with dice while the volcano smokes in the distance. Lucy Easthope is the co-founder of the After Disaster Network in the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience at the University of Durham, Professor in Mass Fatalities and Pandemics at the University of Bath and the author of When The Dust Settles. [LISTEN NOW]
02	Cassandra	20250204	20250602 (R4)	The theory of risk that emerged from the Renaissance and Enlightenment was based on the idea of the individual as rational and self-interested - ‘homo economicus' - and decision-making as an objective science. But as Lucy Easthope discovers, risk is ultimately a subjective construct, and our perception of it is shaped not only by our psychology and feelings but by our beliefs and values. Risk is political - which has a number of significant consequences for our management of risk, for if we can't agree on the risks that face us as a society then how are we supposed to prevent these hazards from becoming a disaster? Lucy Easthope is the co-founder of the After Disaster Network in the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience at the University of Durham, Professor in Mass Fatalities and Pandemics at the University of Bath and the author of “When The Dust Settles ?. With the scientific and technological progress of the past few centuries, we've created new hazards that threaten our very survival and in this series, emergency planner and disaster recovery expert Lucy Easthope explores the history of risk to find out how it's understood, perceived and managed, and to ask how we can become more resilient as individuals, as a society and as a planet. [LISTEN NOW]
03	The Great Tide	20250205	20250609 (R4)	The North Sea Flood of 1953 - the combination of a high spring tide and a storm surge which swept across the East Coast killing 307 people in England - was described as the worst natural disaster in Britain of the 20th century. It was also the birth of modern risk management as the state began to recognise its increased responsibility - and accountability - in preventing future disasters. From cost-benefit analysis and risk assessments to the insurance industry, Lucy Easthope finds out how we protect ourselves from these hazards, and whether there is ever such a thing as a ‘natural' disaster or if they are always the result of political choices. Lucy Easthope is the co-founder of the After Disaster Network in the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience at the University of Durham, Professor in Mass Fatalities and Pandemics at the University of Bath and the author of “When The Dust Settles ?. With the scientific and technological progress of the past few centuries, we've created new hazards that threaten our very survival and in this series, emergency planner and disaster recovery expert Lucy Easthope explores the history of risk to find out how it's understood, perceived and managed, and to ask how we can become more resilient as individuals, as a society and as a planet. [LISTEN NOW]
04	Show Me The Bodies	20250206	20250616 (R4)	Every few years, the government publishes the National Risk Register, a long list of the most serious short-term hazards that we face as a society. But what happens when these acute risks are themselves the product of chronic risks? How do we deal with these long-term risks within the short-term cycle of politics? And why do we always wait until there is a disaster before we do anything? As Lucy Easthope discovers, not acting is the same as acting - and when it comes to the prevention of a disaster like the COVID-19 pandemic or the Grenfell Tower fire, the consequences of not acting can be catastrophic. Lucy Easthope is the co-founder of the After Disaster Network in the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience at the University of Durham, Professor in Mass Fatalities and Pandemics at the University of Bath and the author of “When The Dust Settles ?. With the scientific and technological progress of the past few centuries, we've created new hazards that threaten our very survival and in this series, emergency planner and disaster recovery expert Lucy Easthope explores the history of risk to find out how it's understood, perceived and managed, and to ask how we can become more resilient as individuals, as a society and as a planet. [LISTEN NOW]
05 LAST	The Precipice	20250207	20250623 (R4)	The atomic bomb which would go on to destroy the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - marked not just the end of the Second World War but also a turning point in history as for the first time we had the ability to destroy life on Earth. In this episode Lucy explores the subject of ‘existential risk', from nuclear war to artificial intelligence, to discover how in the effort to liberate ourselves from the constraints of nature we have created new hazards that threaten not only society but the environment upon which we depend for survival. The greatest risk that faces us as a planet is undoubtedly climate change, but despite the overwhelming evidence of the human impact on the climate she finds out why we have done so little to mitigate this catastrophic threat. Lucy Easthope is the co-founder of the After Disaster Network in the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience at the University of Durham, Professor in Mass Fatalities and Pandemics at the University of Bath and the author of “When The Dust Settles ?. With the scientific and technological progress of the past few centuries, we've created new hazards that threaten our very survival and in this series, emergency planner and disaster recovery expert Lucy Easthope explores the history of risk to find out how it's understood, perceived and managed, and to ask how we can become more resilient as individuals, as a society and as a planet. [LISTEN NOW]