More Or Less

(Photo: Seven-year-old twin sisters Seye and Sayo on their way to a party. Credit: Pius Utomi Ekpei/Getty Images)



(Photo: Seven-year-old twin sisters Seye and Sayo on their way to a party. Credit: Pius Utomi Ekpei/Getty Images)

Two claims from Nigeria are scrutinised this week. First we look at news reports stating that: ?a Nigerian senator earns 1.7 million US dollars year, far higher than the salary of the US President.?? We also hear of a popular belief going back decades which has appeared again on social media - that yam consumption has led to Nigeria?s Yoruba people having the world?s highest twin birth rate. But is there any evidence for this? We talk to the fact-checkers at Africa Check.

Two claims from Nigeria are scrutinised this week. First we look at news reports stating that: ?a Nigerian senator earns 1.7 million US dollars year, far higher than the salary of the US President.?? We also hear of a popular belief going back decades which has appeared again on social media - that yam consumption has led to Nigeria's Yoruba people having the world's highest twin birth rate. But is there any evidence for this? We talk to the fact-checkers at Africa Check.

Two claims from Nigeria are scrutinised this week. First we look at news reports stating that: “a Nigerian senator earns 1.7 million US dollars year, far higher than the salary of the US President.?? We also hear of a popular belief going back decades which has appeared again on social media - that yam consumption has led to Nigeria’s Yoruba people having the world’s highest twin birth rate. But is there any evidence for this? We talk to the fact-checkers at Africa Check.

Repeated from Friday

5/8. With Tim Harford. Repeated from Friday

Debt: A European Odyssey

On More or Less we're always looking for the perfect analogy to help clarify complicated things. And the European debt crisis is pretty complicated. The good news is that we think we've come up with exactly the right way to describe the whole sorry business - as Homer's Odyssey.

Alternative medicine and the placebo effect

Earlier in the summer a study was published which seemed to suggest that acupuncture might help some patients with unexplained symptoms. Interesting. We asked Margaret McCartney, a Glasgow GP and a blogger on medical evidence, to investigate. But Dr McCartney thinks the study tells us about more than just acupuncture - it tells us something about the whole way in which treatments are administered on the NHS.

Asking the right questions

This summer, the Office for National Statistics celebrates seventy years of its social surveys. We've been looking back at their work, some of which is a little surprising. In November 1941 the Wartime Social Survey Unit undertook a major study of women's undergarments. The reason? Steel. Britain needed to know how much metal was being used to support the country's women, rather than the war effort.

Producer: Richard Knight.

Euro debt odyssey, the placebo effect and 70 years of social surveys.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

Investigating estimates of the number of people who illegally share files on the internet.

5/6. Tim Harford gets behind more numbers in the news. Repeated from Friday

(Photo: Seven-year-old twin sisters Seye and Sayo on their way to a party. Credit: Pius Utomi Ekpei/Getty Images)

'1/6. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere. Repeated from Friday'

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers in the news.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

Repeated from Friday

6/8. With Tim Harford. Repeated from Friday

The National Literacy Trust said this week that one in three children does not own a book. The national media lamented, but we take a closer inspection of the report and the data collected, and find some better news.

Supermarket price wars:

Tim Harford and Anthony Reuben work out how all supermarkets can claim to be cheaper than each other, without being slapped down for false advertising.

Eurostats II:

We continue to scrutinise the enormous numbers emerging from the Eurozone crisis. Do Italian tax payers really pay 2 billion euros a year for their politicians to be chauffered around? Wesley Stephenson checks out the figures.

Amazing?

What are the odds of breaking four double-yolk eggs into your baking bowl, one after another? That's what happened to our colleague Jennifer Clarke and her friend Lynsey as they prepared profiteroles at the weekend. Tim Harford works out the probabilities for the amazed bakers...before Jennifer then breaks the remaining two eggs in the box...will they too be double yolkers?

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Editor: Richard Vadon.

The maths of supermarket price wars and odds of cracking six double-yoke eggs in a row.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

Tim Harford examines reports that the world will cool over the next two decades.

6/6. Tim Harford gets behind more numbers in the news. Repeated from Friday

Tim Harford and the team ask if claims made about energy efficient lightbulbs are true.

Repeated from Friday

2/8. With Tim Harford. Repeated from Friday

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

2/6. Tim Harford investigates numbers in the news. Repeated from Friday

Tim Harford challenges a much-quoted statistic on domestic violence.

Repeated from Friday

7/8. Tim Harford presents the programme about numbers. Repeated from Friday

Higgs Boson:

In the week that scientists at the Large Hadron Collider announced that the most coveted prize in particle physics - the Higgs boson - may have been found, Tim Harford hears how everyone is getting confused about how to report statistical significance. Robert Matthew of Aston University says the meaning of 2, 3 and 5-sigma evidence is being misinterpreted by science journalists and some of the physicists themselves.

Medieval mathematics:

Tim Harford talks to author Keith Devlin about how Fibonacci revolutionised trade by introducing medieval businessmen to simple arithmetic.

How (not) to corner a market:

Performance artist Jamie Moakes is trying to corner the market in a 1980s plastic doll from cartoon series He- Man. Tim Harford explores the difficulties of Jamie's quest to push up the price of something that for many years no one has much wanted. He hears from Professor Eric Smith of the University of Essex who says that there is no saying why certain items gain value, although in this instance Jamie may struggle to achieve his goal. He also hears lessons from history from John Gapper of the Financial Times.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

~More Or Less is made in association with the Open University.

Higgs boson statistics; how to corner a market; and Fibonacci's medieval mathematics.

Repeated from Friday

Tim Harford presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

Repeated from Friday

3/8. With Tim Harford. Repeated from Friday

Tim Harford presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

An Open University co-production for BBC Radio 4.

Tim Harford and the team test the reliability of swine flu data.

Repeated from Friday

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers in the news.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Repeated from Friday

'8/8. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally. Repeated from Friday'

99 v 1%:

Tim Harford asks what we do and don't know about income inequality in the UK, the US, and other countries around the world. He speaks to Professor Sir Tony Atkinson of Oxford University; Stewart Lansley, author of 'The Cost of Inequality'; and Professor Donald Boudreaux of George Mason University in Virginia.

Laughing in the face of risk:

David Spiegelhalter, the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University explains what led him to take on what could be his riskiest venture to date - appearing as a contestant on BBC One's Winter Wipeout. Really.

The magic of maths:

As a special Christmas treat, we're honoured to have a guest appearance from a top professor of maths and statistics - described by magician (and loyal listener) Paul Daniels as a 'legend'. Persi Diaconis, of Stanford University in California and co-author of 'Magical Mathematics', has an enthralling story to tell of how he discovered magic as a boy, and then, as a consequence, a love of maths. And to illustrate how closely maths and magic are linked, Crossing Continents editor and the BBC's in-house magician, Hugh Levinson, performs a mathemagical card trick - see the performance below.

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford discusses income inequality and meets the professor appearing on TV's Wipeout.

As a special Christmas treat, we're honoured to have a guest appearance from a top professor of maths and statistics - described by magician (and loyal listener) Paul Daniels as a 'legend'. Persi Diaconis, of Stanford University in California and co-author of Magical Mathematics, has an enthralling story to tell of how he discovered magic as a boy, and then, as a consequence, a love of maths. And to illustrate how closely maths and magic are linked, Crossing Continents editor and the BBC's in-house magician, Hugh Levinson, performs a mathemagical card trick - see the performance below.

As a special Christmas treat, we're honoured to have a guest appearance from a top professor of maths and statistics - described by magician (and loyal listener) Paul Daniels as a 'legend'. Persi Diaconis, of Stanford University in California and co-author of Magical Mathematics, has an enthralling story to tell of how he discovered magic as a boy, and then, as a consequence, a love of maths. And to illustrate how closely maths and magic are linked, Crossing Continents editor and the BBC's in-house magician, Hugh Levinson, performs a mathemagical card trick - see the performance below.

Repeated from Friday

The Chancellor recently said that while he would continue to protect deserving benefit claimants, people who claimed benefits 'as a lifestyle choice' would have to stop because the money would no longer be there. What does the evidence tell us about how many people fall into that category - and how incentives work in the welfare system?

After spotting a new unit of measurement - the Prime Minister's salary (£142,500) - we create our Prime Minister Index, allowing us to calculate any individual's place on the index (or, as we like to say, work out their PMI).

The median salary in Britain is £25,800, so that's a PMI of 0.2, for example. If you jump to a PMI of 10,000, you get to the hedge fund manager John Paulson on £1.4 billion.

Last week the British Trust for Ornithology published the results of its 40th annual garden bird-feeding survey - revealing huge falls in the numbers of some species. Blue tits down 42% over 40 years. House sparrows down 70%. Song thrushes down 75%. Are cats to blame?

Last week we were examined how to adjust for age and sex to create a level playing field for two runners - a 28-year-old woman, and a 52-year-old man. Our very own 28-year-old woman and 52-year-old man entered the Great North Run half marathon to test our calculations. This week, we bring you the results.

This week: welfare numbers, pay revisited and how many birds do cats kill?

Tim Harford and the More or Less team tackle the budget, drink-driving statistics, the maths of public toilet equality and they reveal the surprising results of their 'what are you doing right now' data-gathering exercise.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team explain the numbers behind the news.

In More or Less this week:

Scottish independence

Listeners have already been in touch with us asking for clarification on the various claims made about the economic viability of an independent Scotland with the prospect of a referendum in the next five years. Is Scotland subsidised by the rest of the UK or does it more than pay its way through North Sea oil revenues? And what would have happened if an independent Scotland had to bail out RBS and HBOS?

Mobile phones and cancer

There have been some scary headlines about mobile phones and links to brain cancer recently after the WHO classified radiofrequency electromagnetic fields as possibly carcinogenic to humans. But did all the press coverage get this right? Professor Kevin McConway from the Open University explains what this development really means.

Is Tendulkar the greatest sportsman alive?

It's a question that often prompts heated discussion but can maths help us arrive at a more definitive answer? Writer Rob Eastaway makes the case for Indian cricketer, Sachin Tendulkar.

Producer: Phil Kemp.

Scottish independence, mobile phones and cancer; and is Tendulkar the greatest sportsman?

4/8. Tim Harford is joined by Konnie Huq and Dave Gorman. Repeated from Boxing Day at 1.30pm

Tim Harford presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

Is Britain's record on prosecuting rape is as bad as headlines suggest?

4/6. Tim Harford gets behind more numbers in the news. Repeated from Friday

A short film for the Draw A Line campaign has made the claim that one in three girls first sexual experience is rape. This seems shockingly high, but what is the evidence? Is it just for the UK or a global figure? We go back to the reports that were used to source the claim, and find the research has been misinterpreted.

How long can a shark go for without eating?

A recent episode of Blue Planet II stated that after a large meal a Sixgill shark might not have to eat for 'up to an entire year'. Tim Harford speaks to Dr David Ebert, a shark expert who has studied the stomach contents of Sixgills over the years. And to Professor Alex Roger, a zoologist who advised the Blue Planet team, to try and find out how accurate the claim is and why the deep sea is still a mystery.

The wonder of Prime Numbers

Oxford mathematician Vicky Neale talks about her new book - Closing The Gap - and how mathematicians have striven to understand the patterns behind prime numbers.

Multiple grannies

A Swiss mummy has recently been identified as a distant ancestor of Boris Johnson. But some people have been getting tangled up over just how many great-great-great-great-great-great-great grandmothers the Foreign Secretary might have. We tackle an email from one listener - none other than the broadcaster Stephen Fry.

Challenging the claim that one in three girls' first sexual experience is rape.

Border brouhaha

Just how long have travellers been waiting to get through immigration at Heathrow Airport? We wade into a statistical slanging match between an airline operator and a Home Office minister.

Bank holidays

What are you planning to do with the bank holiday? Paint the bathroom? Listen to old podcasts of More or Less? Or DESTROY THE ECONOMY? Could it possibly be true that cancelling all eight regular bank holidays in England and Wales would boost GDP by 1.3%?

Choral coincidence

Lister Julia Atkins wrote: 'I belong to a wonderful choir, Rock Chorus, in Milton Keynes. I discovered one evening that 3 new ladies had come along from Olney, 10 miles away. They all sat next to each other. They had never met before. But most extraordinary was that they all lived in the same road!! That's quite a combination of coincidences, I think you'll agree.' Well, we'll see.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Knight.

Austerity, border queues and bank holidays. With Tim Harford.

Could computers do a better job than humans of exposing fake news and holding politicians to account? Tim Harford interviews Mevan Babakar of the fact-checking organisation Fullfact about the software tools she and her team are building to try to automatically verify statistical claims.

The Child Poverty Action Group claims low-earning parents working full-time are unable to earn enough to provide their family with a basic, no-frills lifestyle. Tim Harford examines the numbers with the author of the group's report, Professor Donald Hirsch of the Centre for Research in Social Policy at Loughborough University.

Presenter: Tim Harford.

Tim Harford on no-frills living, automated fact-checking and Lord of the Rings maths.

Do 85 people really own half the world's wealth? An advert for a BBC2 programme claims so, but More or Less listeners aren't so sure.

The media has also been full of stories about a new study, which reportedly shows that most cancers are caused by 'bad luck'. But, actually, it doesn't. Tim Harford finds out what the research really tells us about the causes of cancer, speaking to PZ Myers, a biologist and associate professor at the University of Minnesota, Morris, in the United States and Professor George Davey-Smith, clinical epidemiologist at Bristol University.

The Financial Times' Chris Giles joins Tim Harford to discuss statistical claims which are both true and unfair.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Programme credit: the song Bad Dream, featured in the item about cancer, was composed by Nick Thorburn.

Including NHS target data, bad luck and cancer, and statistics that are true and unfair.

In two weeks' time the Republic of Ireland is holding a referendum into whether to make changes to its strict abortion laws. We have been inundated with emails and Tweets from listeners asking us to look at some of the statistics that keep coming up during the course of the campaigns for and against changing the law. The one that has caught the most attention is a statistic which has appeared on posters saying: 'In Britain, 'Limited' abortion kills 1 in 5 babies.' We take a look at the numbers.

Superforecasting

How good are political and economic forecasts? Philip Tetlock, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania collects forecasts from a wide range of experts to see if they come true or not. One nickname he has for some the best forecasters is the 'foxes' - not to be confused with the woeful 'hedgehogs'.

Modern Slavery

Former Crimewatch presenter Nick Ross asked us to look into the numbers of 'modern slaves' reported in the UK. We explore the definition of modern slavery and how the authorities create estimates of the size of what is largely a hidden phenomenon.

Math versus Maths

North Americans like to use the word 'math' while the Brits like to say 'maths' - but who is correct? We hear the case for both words and try work out which one is right, with the help of the Queen of Countdown's Dictionary Corner, Susie Dent.

The British abortion statistics gaining attention in Ireland's referendum debate.

In two weeks' time the Republic of Ireland is holding a referendum into whether to make changes to its strict abortion laws. We have been inundated with emails and Tweets from listeners asking us to look at some of the statistics that keep coming up during the course of the campaigns for and against changing the law. The one that has caught the most attention is a statistic which has appeared on posters saying: In Britain, Limited abortion kills 1 in 5 babies. We take a look at the numbers.

How good are political and economic forecasts? Philip Tetlock, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania collects forecasts from a wide range of experts to see if they come true or not. One nickname he has for some the best forecasters is the foxes - not to be confused with the woeful hedgehogs.

It was also claimed that six fast-growing African countries could provide significant trade openings for the UK as it seeks to expand its trade relationships outside the EU. But how big are these African economies?

No alcohol safe to drink, global study confirms' ran a recent BBC headline about a paper published in the Lancet journal. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter tells Tim Harford why moderate drinkers should not be alarmed.

President Trump tweeted this eye-catching claim recently: 'Over 90% approval rating for your all-time favorite (I hope) President within the Republican Party and 52% overall.' That does sound impressively high. Tim Harford asks the BBC's senior North America reporter, Anthony Zurcher whether the figures are true.

What proportion of the UK's population are immigrants? What proportion of teenage girls give birth each year? Research suggests most people get the answer to these questions, and many others about everyday facts, very wrong. Tim Harford interviews Bobby Duffy, Global Director of Ipsos Social Research Institute and author of the book, 'Perils of Perception: Why We're Wong About Nearly Everything', about our most common mistakenly-held beliefs and what they reveal about us.

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford fact-checks EU trade deals with Africa, and whether one drink is one too many.

Last week it was reported that more boys were getting top grades than girls in A Levels. This bucked a trend which previously showed that girls got better grades. But is it as simple as boys getting better? We find out that it really depends on what subjects you take.

Is a lack of school swimming lessons leading to more deaths by drowning?

Are more young people really drowning due to children in primary schools receiving fewer swimming lessons? That was the question posed to us by one loyal listener after she read newspaper headlines suggesting that was the case. So what do the numbers say? Tim Harford talks to Mike Dunn from The Royal Life Saving Society.

Why are dress sizes so weird?

What clothes size are you?' - the question every woman hates to be asked. Not only because it's a bit rude, but because quite frankly it's hard to know the answer. Today most shops hire a 'fit' model - a real life woman who they consider to have the dimensions of their perfect customer. They then create clothes to fit her dimensions - waste, hips and bust. More Or Less takes one size 8 fit model shopping to show how sizes differ between shops.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Editor: Jasper Corbett.

Are boys getting more top A-Level grades than girls?

The government says it has identified 120,000 troubled families who are responsible for a disproportionate share of society's ills. It's set up a 'Troubled Families Team' to deal with them. But in fact the government has counted extremely deprived families and then announced that it has counted extremely disruptive families instead.

Nursing numbers

This week government ministers have been arguing with the Royal College of Nursing about job losses in the NHS in England. It seems they've also been arguing between themselves. We unravel the numbers.

The mathematical consequences of unneutered cats

If one unneutered female cat was allowed to go about her business, how many cats would she and her descendants have created in two years? Would you believe that it was as many as 370,000, as a new advertising campaign claims? Neither would we.

Greek taxis. Again.

The former Greek finance minister has said he thinks the Greek rail system is so inefficient it would be cheaper to send each passenger by taxi. We examined his idea and found it was almost - but not quite - true. But many listeners sent us their thoughts about other ways of looking at the problem. So, this week, we revisit our calculations.

Preenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Knight.

Troubled families, nursing numbers and the mathematical consequences of unneutered cats.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Greek rail

In recent editions of More or Less we've tackled a lot of 'Eurostats' - some of the wad of statistics which have emerged, with increasing frequency, as the Euro crisis has deepened. How about this one: it's said the Greek railways are so expensive to run, it would be cheaper to send all its the passengers by taxi instead. Can it possibly be true?

Chess puzzle

Forget the Olympics, the World Chess Championship match has just started. The champion is a man. His challenger is a man. In fact there is only one woman in the world's top 100 chess players. Why?

Dilnot returns

The first in a regular series of interview with former presenters of the show. Actually, it may be a short series, because there is only one: Andrew Dilnot. He's gone on to better things as the new chairman of the UK Statistics Authority. (Broadcast in the May 13 and podcast versions only.)

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Knight.

Executive pay, chess and trouble on the Greek railway.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Are natural disasters on the rise? Following the devastating hurricanes to have battered the Caribbean and the United States, the floods in Asia and the mudslides in Sierra Leone, the UN Secretary General told a press conference that the number of disasters in the world has quadrupled since the 1980s - is he right?

Police Pay

Theresa May said at Prime Ministers Question's that pay for certain police officers who started in 2010 had risen by 32%. This statement outraged the Police Federation - Tim Harford puts this claim into context and discovers that that the Prime Minister picked this particular group of officers for a reason.

Zillions

We like a specific number on More or Less but the English language isn't always so exact. It turns out that people love words that give a sense of size, but are vague about an actual number, terms like zillion and umpteenth. Helen Zaltzman is the presenter of the podcast 'The Allusionist' that looks at the way we use language. Tim has been talking to her about what are called indefinite hyperbolic numbers.

A present for a Statistically significant other.

Last series, Dave called us for help. 'What should he buy his statistics-mad partner who also loved cross-stich?' Zillions of More or Less listeners got in touch to suggest ideas - so did he take their advice?

Has the number of natural disasters really quadrupled in the last forty years?

How many cows for a fiver?

The news that products from cows have been used to make the new five pound notes has caused consternation. Vice News have tried to work out statistically how many animals must have died in order to make these new notes in circulation. It is a very low number.

Five year olds not so bad after all

‘Shocking’ stats were revealed this week by the Department of Education. School assessments showed that just under a third of five year olds were below the expected standards for children of their age. But not only are these results not that shocking there is another reason why the statistics are not all they seem.

How to wrap a football

Christmas is approaching and Tim Harford has a puzzling present-related question – what’s the best way to wrap a spherical object? Fortunately mathematician Hannah Fry has been thinking about this and gives her best thoughts on how to tackle this festive problem.

Cleaning up water

In the Desk of Good News, we look at how improving sanitation has transformed lives. We speak to Johan Norberg, author of ‘Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future’ about the Great Stink of 1858.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Image: Danny Dyer on 'Who do you think you are?'. BBC Copyright

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

The BBC series ?Who do you think you are?? has traced the ancestors of the actor Danny Dyer, famous for parts in Eastenders and many films. The programme revealed that he is in fact related to Edward III. But how unusual is that? We look at the odds of someone with English heritage being descended from this medieval king who died in 1377.

?Shocking? stats were revealed this week by the Department of Education. School assessments showed that just under a third of five year olds were below the expected standards for children of their age. But not only are these results not that shocking there is another reason why the statistics are not all they seem.

Christmas is approaching and Tim Harford has a puzzling present-related question ? what?s the best way to wrap a spherical object? Fortunately mathematician Hannah Fry has been thinking about this and gives her best thoughts on how to tackle this festive problem.

In the Desk of Good News, we look at how improving sanitation has transformed lives. We speak to Johan Norberg, author of ?Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future? about the Great Stink of 1858.

The BBC series ‘Who do you think you are?' has traced the ancestors of the actor Danny Dyer, famous for parts in Eastenders and many films. The programme revealed that he is in fact related to Edward III. But how unusual is that? We look at the odds of someone with English heritage being descended from this medieval king who died in 1377.

‘Shocking' stats were revealed this week by the Department of Education. School assessments showed that just under a third of five year olds were below the expected standards for children of their age. But not only are these results not that shocking there is another reason why the statistics are not all they seem.

Christmas is approaching and Tim Harford has a puzzling present-related question - what's the best way to wrap a spherical object? Fortunately mathematician Hannah Fry has been thinking about this and gives her best thoughts on how to tackle this festive problem.

In the Desk of Good News, we look at how improving sanitation has transformed lives. We speak to Johan Norberg, author of ‘Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future' about the Great Stink of 1858.

What do you do with bored children on a bus? Rob Eastaway, author of 'Maths on the go,' gets three pupils to play a game on the Number 12 in south London.

Prime Minister David Cameron said this week that 22% of British Muslim women speak little or no English. He says that equates to 190,000. We look at the figures.

Plus, was the Hatton Garden Heist the biggest robbery ever? Is water more expensive than oil? And a new prime number is discovered.

Does it matter that 62 people now own as much wealth as half of the world's population?

This week there was much debate over the Treasury report which modelled how leaving the EU would affect the economy. Tim Harford speaks to the Spectator's Fraser Nelson about how the document was presented to the public, and how it was reported. Chris Giles of the Financial Times explains that there are useful points to take from the Treasury's analysis.

Hinckley Point nuclear power station

What is the most expensive 'object' ever built? The environmental charity Greenpeace has claimed it is set to be the most expensive object on Earth. But could it really cost more to build than the Great Pyramids? We take a look at some of the most costly building projects on the planet.

Chances of serving on a jury

A listener in Scotland is curious to know what the chances are of being selected for jury service. Several of his family members have received summons, but he has not. We look at who is eligible to serve, and what your odds are of receiving a summons.

European Girls Maths Olympiad

Last week we told the story of how the European Girls Maths Olympiad (EGMO) came into being. We followed the UK team on their recent journey to Romania to compete against 38 other teams from Europe and around the world.

Life expectancy of a Pope

In 2014 Pope Francis alluded to the fact he didn't expect to live more than another two or three years. A group of statisticians have taken a look at the life expectancy of popes over the centuries and decided that he may have been rather pessimistic.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Do the Treasury's Brexit numbers add up?

Do dairy farmers make a loss on each litre of milk that they produce, as is often claimed? Charlotte Smith from Farming Today talks us through the numbers.

England cricketer Stuart Broad has prompted anger after tweeting: 'I've heard if you earn minimum wage in England you're in the top 10% earners in the world. #stay #humble.' More or Less considers whether this is true or not.

The UK's unhappiest workers are retail staff and teachers, reported the Guardian this week. Really?

How to use maths to find your life partner, with Matt Parker, author of 'Things to Make and Do in the Fourth Dimension'.

And, what are the chances that two friends, given the same due date for their babies' birth, actually do give birth on the same day? Tim discusses the reliability - or otherwise- of pregnancy due dates with Professor Jason Gardosi of the Perinatal Institute.

About one-third of American girls become pregnant as teenagers' a New York Times article claimed. More or Less asks if this is true and looks at the long-term pregnancy trends in developed countries.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

The Conservatives' employment claims, milk, teachers, dating and pregnancy due dates.

The Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, said this week that over the past decade, 450,000 women have accidentally not been invited for breast cancer screening because of a computer error - and that up to 270 women may have had their lives shortened as a result. But where does that number come from? We'll be checking the Health Secretary's maths.

Counting the Windrush Generation

Do we know how many who came to the UK from Commonwealth countries before 1971 are now at risk of being deported? We speak to the Migration Obvservatory at Oxford University to find out where the Windrush Generation are actually from, plus how many are missing vital documentation.

Has Nigel Farage been on Question Time too often?

The former UKIP leader has appeared on Question Time 32 times. Is that too many? Labour's Lord Adonis thinks so. We go back through the archives to look at the different times he was invited on and compare it to some other frequent panelists.

Painting a picture with an audiogram

Data journalist Mona Chalabi talks to Tim Harford about her unusual approach to analysing numbers. She has spent years making interesting visual depictions of data. Now she has turned her attention to some audio projects. We discover the correlation between men's voices and their testicles.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Editor: Richard Vadon.

Calculating the benefits and risks of breast screening. Plus, patchy citizenship data.

What British Muslims really think' poll

This week many news outlets covered polling research carried out for a documentary on Channel 4. Some of the points that came out included that half of all British Muslims think homosexuality should be illegal and that 23% want Sharia Law. But how representative are these views? We speak to Anthony Wells from the blog UK Polling Report who explains the difficulties of carrying out polling.

The number of Brits abroad

Figures released this week suggested that there was an increase in the number of people coming to the UK from other parts of Europe. But many listeners have been asking - how many Brits are living in other parts of Europe? We try to find the best figures available.

European Girls Maths Olympiad

In 2012 a new international maths competition was started at the University of Cambridge. It was a chance for female students to get a chance of meeting girls from other countries and try to solve hard maths problems, as they are under represented at most other international competitions. We hear about how the competition got started in celebration of this year's competition in Romania.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Short clip of Alan Rickman from Sense and Sensibility, Columbia Pictures.

Have more famous people died this year than usual?

Last week, the TUC made headlines with a new report it had published, claiming more 1 million more children from working families are living in poverty than they were in 2010. But is this because a lot more people are working today than ten years ago? Tim Harford speaks to Jonathan Cribb from the Institute for Fiscal Studies about how we define poverty, and whether things are getting worse or better

Progress 8

School league tables in England used to rank schools by the proportion of pupils who managed to achieve five A* to C grades in their GCSE's. There was an obvious problem with that: schools with lots of middle class kids might do well on the league tables, even if the actual teaching wasn't so great. And brilliant schools in deprived areas might be undervalued. So in 2016 the system was changed - instead league tables are now arranged by a measure called Progress 8. It's meant to be a fairer way to assess things. But one listener got in touch to ask - how does it work? Is it better?

How green is grass?

A listener wants to know whether a garden product can really make you grass 6 times greener so we'll be exploring the greenness of grass. Can you put a numeric value on how green a colour is? Is it possible to tell when something is six times greener than baseline with the human eye, and is there a maximum green to which all lawns should aspire?

Royal Wedding economics

In the run up to the marriage of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, media outlets and newspapers have been musing over how much money the wedding will bring to the UK economy. We speak to Federica Cocco of the Financial Times who doesn't think there will be much impact at all.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Photo credit: Getty Images).

Are more working families in poverty? Plus exploring the new school league tables.

How big is the market, how many investors does it have and does it tell us anything about the wider Chinese economy?

Eight Million Foreigners

Are there really eight million foreigners in the UK?

What does 95% less harmful actually mean?

E-cigarettes are 95% less harmful than ordinary cigarettes according to last week's report by Public Health England. But what does this mean? The number was arrived at using something called 'multi criteria decision analysis' so how does it work - we ask the man who brought it to the UK, Professor Larry Phillips.

Thinking Like an Engineer

Guru Madhavan from America's National Academy of Scientists lifts the lid on how engineers think and argues that those making policy should ask engineers as well as economists about solving social problems.

Sprinters legs

It's may seem strange, but world class runners don't move their legs faster than average park runner. That's the claim anyway - is it true and if so what is it that means athletes like Usain Bolt and Justin Gatlin run so fast?

(This programme will be blocked to users outside of the UK for rights reasons - if you want to listen to this week's programme and you are outside of the UK please download the podcast).

The Chinese markets may have crashed but was it really Black Monday? With Tim Harford.

How will they fare with questions based on a range of topical subjects including the Olympics, the EU Referendum and reindeer? Plus, friend of the programme, Rob Eastaway poses a mathematical puzzle.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Scorekeeper: Simon Maybin

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Tim Harford poses a tough statistical challenge.

The risks of Covid-19 for different age groups and what restrictions mean for the economy

We?ve dedicated this special episode to the numbers surrounding the Coronavirus pandemic. Statistical national treasure Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter put the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. We ask whether young people are safe from serious illness, or if statistics from hospitalisations in the US show a high proportion of patients are under 50. We try to understand what the ever-tightening restrictions on businesses and movement mean for the UK?s economy, and we take a look at the mystery of coronavirus numbers in Iran.

We've dedicated this special episode to the numbers surrounding the Coronavirus pandemic. Statistical national treasure Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter put the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. We ask whether young people are safe from serious illness, or if statistics from hospitalisations in the US show a high proportion of patients are under 50. We try to understand what the ever-tightening restrictions on businesses and movement mean for the UK's economy, and we take a look at the mystery of coronavirus numbers in Iran.

We?ve dedicated this special episode to the numbers surrounding the Coronavirus pandemic. Statistical national treasure Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter put the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. We ask whether young people are safe from serious illness, or if statistics from hospitalisations in the US show a high proportion of patients are under 50. We try to understand what the ever-tightening restrictions on businesses and movement mean for the UK's economy, and we take a look at the mystery of coronavirus numbers in Iran.

In a joint investigation with BBC Newsbeat and BBC Monitoring, we've analysed nearly 25,000 news articles to assess whether 2016 so far has been a unusually deadly year for terrorism. It certainly feels like it. But what do the numbers say? We estimate that, between January and July this year, 892 people died in terrorist attacks in Europe - making it the most deadly first seven months of a year since 1994. But the vast majority of those deaths have been in Turkey. The number for Western Europe is 143, which is lower than many years in the 1970s.

Dying 'at the hands of the police

This week retired footballer Dalian Atkinson died after being 'tasered' by police. His death has renewed concerns about the number of people who die after coming into contact with the police. Recently it was claimed that one person a week dies 'at the hands of the police' and that 'black people are disproportionately affected.' We take a look at the numbers.

Olympic predictions

As the Games in Rio draw to an end, we look back at the medal predictions we made before they started. Which countries have performed as expected? And which failed to meet our expectations?

The cost of a wedding gift

Can economics tell us how much to spend on a wedding gift? Our reporter Jordan is in a tight spot. He's heading to an old friend's wedding and needs to figure out how little he can get away with spending on a gift. Luckily, economist Maria Kozlovskaya is on hand to explain her findings on our 'internal exchange rate' for gift giving. Can she preserve Jordan's friendship while protecting his wallet?

What's behind the claim that 1 in 3 people born in the UK this year could get dementia?

How reliable is the science in psychology?

The Reproducibility of Psychological Science project reported recently and it made grim reading. Having replicated 100 psychological studies published in three psychology journals only thirty six had significant results compared to 97% first time around. So is there a problem with psychological science and what should be done to fix it?

One of mathematics' enigmas

He is described as one of the most charismatic mathematicians but he is also shy and enigmatic. Professor John Conway has been described as a genius whose most famous innovation is the cell automaton The Game of Life - Tim talks to Siobhan Roberts about the man and his life. Thanks to Numberphile for allowing us to use a clip of their John Conway interview in this piece. Listen to their full interview with John Conway here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8kUJL04ELA and you can see other number goodness at numberphile.com

Is it more difficult to play against ten men?

Arsene Wenger has said it, Sam Allerdyce and Steve Bruce have said it too - it's more difficult to play against ten men. It's an oft quoted footballing clich退 but is there any truth in it?

Decimate

Tim used the word in an interview last week to mean devastate rather than cut by ten percent - many listeners said this was unforgivable - was it? - We ask Oliver Kamm - Author of 'Accidence Will Happen: The Non-Pedantic Guide to English Usage'.

Tim Harford asks whether one in three people born in the UK this year will get dementia.

Arsene Wenger has said it, Sam Allerdyce and Steve Bruce have said it too - it's more difficult to play against ten men. It's an oft quoted footballing clich? but is there any truth in it?

Research last month claimed to show that e-cigarettes harm your chances of quitting smoking. The paper got coverage world-wide but it also came in for unusually fierce criticism from academics who spend their lives trying to help people quit. It's been described as 'grossly misleading' and 'not scientific'. We look at what is wrong with the paper and ask if it should have been published in the first place.

A campaign of dodgy statistics

Are American presidential hopefuls getting away with statistical murder? We speak to Angie Drobnic, Editor of the US fact-checking website Politifact, about the numbers politicians are using - which are not just misleading, but wrong.

Will missing a week of school affect your GCSE results?

Recently education minister Nick Gibb said that missing a week of school could affect a pupil's GCSE grades by a quarter. We examine the evidence and explore one of the first rules of More or Less - 'correlation is not causation'. We interview Stephen Gorard, Professor of Education at Durham University.

What are the chances that a father and two of his children share the same birthday?

A loyal listener got in touch to find out how rare an occurrence this is. Professor David Spiegelhalter from the University of Cambridge explains the probabilities involved.

Tim Harford investigates whether e-cigarettes harm people's chances of quitting.

The pitfalls of fact-checking

It seems to be a burgeoning age for fact-checkers. There are websites and journalists keen to examine the truth behind what politicians and governments say. More or Less has been part of that tradition for many years. But do people always find these fact-checks persuasive? And when does fact-checking and myth-busting backfire? We take a look at some of the problems.

Humans or goldfish

Everyone knows our attention spans are getting shorter. It's just obvious. In the always-connected world of social media, smartphones and hyperlinks in the middle of everything you read, it's become that much harder to stay focused. And there are statistics too. They say that the average attention span is down from 12 seconds in the year 2000 to eight seconds now. That's less than the nine-second attention span of your average goldfish.

But the statistics are not all that they seem - and neither is the received wisdom about goldfish.

Plus, we also ask why, when children's teeth are getting healthier, so many newspapers have been reporting that tooth extractions are on the rise. And are house prices increased by a good school - we're not so sure.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Why airlines take a bet that you won't show for your flight.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Neal Razzell

50,000 nurses? 40 hospitals? Corporate tax rises? Tim Harford looks at Election pledges.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Neal Razzell

50,000 nurses? 40 hospitals? Corporate tax rises? Tim Harford looks at Election pledges.

Labour spending plans, Conservative claims on homelessness, the SNP's education record.

Who pays tax?

What proportion of adults are paying income tax? How much are they paying? Where does the highest burden lay? We take a look. Also, we look at the different political parties' tax policies. This includes corporation tax, but what about National Insurance?

How do you cut migration?

The Conservative manifesto again includes the aim to lower net migration to tens of thousands. How has this aim fared in the last six years? And what could the Conservatives do in future years to achieve their goal? We also take a look at what impact that might have on the economy.

Taking the nations' temperature

Summer has arrived - but we cast our minds to the chilly months ahead and think about the Winter Fuel Payment. The Conservatives are proposing to change this to a means-tested system - everywhere except Scotland. Is this because Scotland is colder than the rest of the UK? BBC Weather Man Phil Avery has the answer.

Free School Meals

It's been a popular topic in party manifestos - free school meals. Jamie Oliver thinks school dinners are essential for fighting obesity - but is there really a case to be made for the health benefits of a school lunch? Emily Tanner from the National Centre for Social Research puts the case for and against Universal Free School Meals - while munching a pie and a packed lunch.

Who pays income tax, cutting migration and where in the UK is cold?

And, is Beeston in Nottinghamshire really the most adulterous town in the country?

Tim Harford and a panel of experts discuss how pre-election polls tallied with the results

Thousands of children in Greater Manchester are starting school unable to speak in full sentences or use the toilet' ran a headline in the Manchester Evening News earlier this week. The new mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham also made the claim. Can that really be true asked a loyal listener? More or Less investigates.

Will we need 10 new power plants by 2040 for the electric car revolution?

Sales of new petrol and diesel cars will be banned from 2040 in the UK. So it's expected there will be a huge increase in the number of electric vehicles on our roads. But what will happen when we all try and charge them? Newspaper headlines have quoted us as needing ten new nuclear power plants to cover it and some have even suggested we won't have enough power to charge these vehicles. So we set out to look at the numbers driving the electric car revolution.

Maths underpinning science

Professor Alison Etheridge from the University of Oxford tells the programme why maths can sometimes be overlooked. She talks about her interest in genetics and why mathematicians need to be more vocal about their work.

And we deal with a number of complaints about last week's programme.

How many people have come from the EU to live in the UK? Can we trust the numbers? And if the UK leaves the EU, what would it mean for immigration controls and the future of the economy? We tackle these questions with the help of Jonathan Porte, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and Matthew Pollard, Executive Director, Migration Watch.

Fire death shock

Recently the Guardian somewhat alarmingly reported that the number of fire deaths jumped 21% in one year - the biggest rise in a decade. This comes against a background of shrinking Fire Brigade budgets, and Labour says the figures show the cuts have already gone too far. But something about the story didn't smell right to us...

Simpson's Paradox

A Dutch statistician recently became suspicious by headlines in the Dutch news that women were being discriminated against when it came to getting science research funding. Professor Casper Albers of the Heymans Institute for Psychological Research, Groningen, helps explain what is known as Simpson's Paradox with the aid of a choir metaphor, performed by the BBC Singers.

Fermat's last theorem

What could connect British mathematician Sir Andrew Wiles and the makers of the Simpsons TV show? Science author Simon Singh explains that both have a love of Fermat's Last theorem. A sketch of the famous equation appears on the American cartoon, while next month Professor Wiles will go to Oslo to collect the Abel prize, widely regarded as the Nobel for mathematics, for his work in proving Fermat's Last theorem. We explore why it draws so much interest.

What will happen to migration if the UK leaves the EU?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Giant bombs, a war hero and the foreign secretary's stats.

This week it was claimed that only 1 percent of men are taking up the option of shared parental leave - a new provision that came into force a year ago. A number of media outlets covered the story, interviewing experts about why there was such a low take-up. But in reality the figures used are deeply flawed and cannot be used to prove such a statement.

Exponential Love

I love you twice as much today as yesterday, but half as much as tomorrow.' - This is the inscription on a card that teacher Kyle Evans once saw in a card from his father to his mother. But if that was true, what would it have meant over the course of their relationship? Kyle takes us through a musical exploration of what exponential love would look like. The item is based on a performance he gave for a regional heat of Cheltenham Festivals Famelab - a competition trying to explain science in an engaging way.

The cost of the EU

One of our listeners spotted a comparison made this week between the UK's contribution to the EU and a sandwich. One blogger says it's like buying a £3 sandwich with a £5 note, and getting over a £1,000 in change. We look at the figures on how much the UK pays to the EU, and what it gets back.

The story of 'average

In the 1600s astronomers were coming up with measurements to help sailors read their maps with a compass. But with all the observations of the skies they were making, how did they choose the best number? We tell the story of how astronomers started to find the average from a group of numbers. By the 1800s, one Belgian astronomer began to apply it to all sorts of social and national statistics - and the 'Average Man' was born.

And we set a little maths problem to solve...

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Have only 1 per cent of men taken the option of shared parental leave?

Thousands of people are dying after being declared 'fit for work' by the government according to the Guardian. The figures are from a long awaited freedom of information release from the Department for Work and Pensions. But do the figures actually tell us anything? More or Less investigates.

Sugar

Sugar has had a pretty bad press over the last few months and seems to have replaced fat as the current 'evil' in our diets. We look at some of the claims that have been made about rotting teeth and the justifications for a sugar tax.

Zero-hours contracts

The latest figures show a 20% rise - but does this really mean that more people are on zero hours contracts thab=n last year?

Queuing Backwards

Britons love to queue, but have we been getting it wrong? Lars Peter Osterdal from the University of Southern Denmark discusses his theory of how to make queuing more efficient.

Are people dying after being declared 'fit for work' by the government? With Tim Harford.

What is the total number of possible tweets that could be created from 140 characters? In a recent programme Professor John Allen-Paulos told us that when you take into account all of the symbols available, the total number of possible tweets is Googol2.8 (which is a 1 followed by 280 zeros.) But has he missed some options?

One of our listener's questions whether Christmas Eve is really the busiest day on the roads. We take a look at the figures.

Plus - which is the bigger number? The total number of Storm Trooper toys ever made, or the number of real life soldiers serving in armies around the world?

Is there a north-south divide in the amount of money spent on flood defences in England?

With weather being the national obsession, More or Less has received a number of weather-related emails - specifically about the BBC's weather app. This was updated earlier this year, and it now includes an hour by hour breakdown telling users what chance there is of it raining wherever they are - but what does this percentage actually mean? Tim Harford speaks to meteorologist Nikki Berry from Metrogroup, which provides the BBC's weather forecast analysis.

University of Oxford admissions statistics

How diverse are the most recent undergraduates to start at one of the country's top universities? We take a look.

Waiting for the facts on Voter ID trials

In the recent local elections in England there were five authorities taking part in a trial, requiring voters to show ID for the first time when they turned up at the polling station. In the initial days after the vote it was reported that up to 4,000 people were turned away and couldn't vote because they didn't have identification. But now, Newsnight's David Grossman has collected the data from the trial areas to discover the original estimate was out by a factor of 10.

Counting teabags

How much tea do we drink? A figure that is often quoted suggests that Brits drink 165 million cups of tea a day which works out as around 60 billion a year. We take a look at what evidence is available and whether it is possible to calculate such a statistic.

Are pensioners richer than workers?

A More or Less listener heard a claim that the average income for pensioners is higher than the average income for people of working age - is that true? Jonathan Cribb from the Institute for Fiscal Studies has an answer.

How to read the weather forecast, plus measuring the amount of tea we drink.

This topic has been in the news this week after the Institute for Fiscal Studies published research showing women end up 33% worse off than their male counterparts after they have children. But earlier in the summer, Fraser Nelson wrote in the Telegraph that the pay gap is 'no longer an issue' for women born after 1975. Can both assessments be true? And could the label 'gender pay gap' be hindering our understanding of what really lies behind the numbers?

The cost of a hospital

If a politician or commentator wants to underline just how wasteful a piece of expenditure is, a common strategy is to compare it to the number of hospitals you could build instead. Of course, hospitals are positive things - we all want more, right? But just how much is a hospital? Is it really a useful unit of measurement? We speak to health economist John Appleby.

Corbyn Facts

As Labour members begin voting on the party leadership, we investigate some of the claims made on the 'Corbyn Facts' website set up by Jeremy Corbyn's campaign. Did he really give 122 speeches on the EU referendum during the campaign? Were this year's local election results as good as Labour's best performance under Ed Miliband? We look at what the numbers tell us.

Death Penalty abolition

Statistics suggest that officially about half of the countries in the world have abolished Capital Punishment, and a further 52 have stopped its use in practice. But we tell the story behind the numbers and show why the picture is more complicated. We speak to Parvais Jabbar, co-director of the Death Penalty Project.

The Holiday Desk of Good News

This week we outline a handful of statistics to make everyone feel better about the UK and their holidays.

Making sense of the difference between men's and women's pay.

This week the Office for National Statistics has published analysis trying to find out why it is that on average women are paid less than men in specific industries and occupations. We examine their findings, as well as taking a look at the current discussion about equal pay at the BBC.

Alcohol reaction times

We take a look at a study that suggests that people's reaction speeds are affected over time by regular drinking. It recommends that official guidelines for the amount of alcohol consumed a week should be lowered. But what does the evidence show?

Bus announcements - when is too many?

Transport for London has introduced a new announcement on its buses to warn travellers that the bus is about to move. We discuss the benefit of such messages.

How many words do you need to speak a language?

Ein bier bitte? Loyal listener David made a new year's resolution to learn German. Three years later, that's about as far as he's got. Keen to have something to aim for, he asked More or Less how many words you really need to know in order to speak a language. We find out with help from Professor Stuart Webb, and put Tim through his paces to find out how big his own English vocabulary is.

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

(Photo: Man and woman working on a car production plant. Credit: SEBASTIEN BOZON/AFP/Getty Images)

How much more are men paid than women? And how many words do you need to speak a language?

Swimming World Records

New world records are being set in swimming at a much faster rate than other sports - but why? Tim Harford speaks to swim coach and blogger, Rick Madge about the reason swimmers keep getting better results in the pool. Why do other sports, like athletics, not seem to have the same continual improvements in results?

Teenage girls aren't so bad after all

This week's Desk of Good News challenges the concept that teenage girls and young women are badly behaved. It features statistics on falling teenage pregnancy rates, drinking figures and improving educational success.

The rise of TV

Was the Queen's Coronation the event that sparked the biggest rise in TV sales ever? We take a look at the rise of television in the UK.

Lottery wins

Adam Kucharski, author of The Perfect Bet, looks at the maths behind playing the lottery or gambling.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Do selective schools improve grades and improve social mobility?

Some people were also sceptical at the numbers of fatalities being reported by the police - and then the media. Were the police being too conservative in their estimates?

A local resident emailed the programme asking us to look into the numbers. Tim Harford talks to Commander Stuart Cundy, who oversaw the Met police operation following the fire; to ask him why it is has been so hard to establish the death toll.

Houston - we have a problem

Hurricane Harvey has caused devastation in Texas and neighbouring states. Commentators have speculated that this will be one of the costliest storms in history. We explore why this might be - could the US Government's flood insurance programme be inadvertently contributing to the problem by supporting the buildings in flood plains?

How many sexual partners do we have?

Recently on the Today programme John Humphreys said: 'Thirty years ago a man would have had eight sexual partners and women three, now those averages are 12 for men and eight for women' This sparked a discussion on Twitter among our listeners. How can the number of average partners of men and women be so different? We speak to Sir David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of Risk at the University of Cambridge.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

The difficulties of finding the true number of people who died in the fire.

Homophobic hate crime

The Home Office recently published reported crime figures showing that in England and Wales there was a big post-referendum rise in the number of racially or religiously aggravated offences. And – according to The Observer and others – there was an even higher rise in homophobic hate crime over the summer in the UK. But we’ve been talking to the LGBT anti-violence charity behind the story and they say the stats may not actually show what the headlines suggest.

The value of a royal yacht

The royal yacht was decommissioned in 1997 but, with Brexit on the horizon, there have been calls for Britannia to rule the waves again. The argument goes that the yacht would be the perfect venue to make trade deals – as happened in the Britannia’s time. But there’s been a flotilla of – sometimes contradictory - figures about how much the deals signed on the Britannia actually benefited the UK economy. With the help of a commodore, we investigate the claims.

The Queen’s Christmas Message

Mathematician Hannah Fry has analysed every Christmas broadcast that the Queen has given since her reign began. Taking each year’s message, Hannah and a colleague have compared the number of words she has used to the number of unique words used by rappers and singers in their music. Hannah also explains that she has found a way of generating her own Queen’s Christmas Speech, using a simple algorithm to suggest passages that the Queen might say judged on her previous messages.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Notable deaths, Rule Britannia and creating your own Christmas speech

The Home Office recently published reported crime figures showing that in England and Wales there was a big post-referendum rise in the number of racially or religiously aggravated offences. And ? according to The Observer and others ? there was an even higher rise in homophobic hate crime over the summer in the UK. But we?ve been talking to the LGBT anti-violence charity behind the story and they say the stats may not actually show what the headlines suggest.

The royal yacht was decommissioned in 1997 but, with Brexit on the horizon, there have been calls for Britannia to rule the waves again. The argument goes that the yacht would be the perfect venue to make trade deals ? as happened in the Britannia?s time. But there?s been a flotilla of ? sometimes contradictory - figures about how much the deals signed on the Britannia actually benefited the UK economy. With the help of a commodore, we investigate the claims.

The Queen?s Christmas Message

Mathematician Hannah Fry has analysed every Christmas broadcast that the Queen has given since her reign began. Taking each year?s message, Hannah and a colleague have compared the number of words she has used to the number of unique words used by rappers and singers in their music. Hannah also explains that she has found a way of generating her own Queen?s Christmas Speech, using a simple algorithm to suggest passages that the Queen might say judged on her previous messages.

The Home Office recently published reported crime figures showing that in England and Wales there was a big post-referendum rise in the number of racially or religiously aggravated offences. And - according to The Observer and others - there was an even higher rise in homophobic hate crime over the summer in the UK. But we've been talking to the LGBT anti-violence charity behind the story and they say the stats may not actually show what the headlines suggest.

The royal yacht was decommissioned in 1997 but, with Brexit on the horizon, there have been calls for Britannia to rule the waves again. The argument goes that the yacht would be the perfect venue to make trade deals - as happened in the Britannia's time. But there's been a flotilla of - sometimes contradictory - figures about how much the deals signed on the Britannia actually benefited the UK economy. With the help of a commodore, we investigate the claims.

The Queen's Christmas Message

Mathematician Hannah Fry has analysed every Christmas broadcast that the Queen has given since her reign began. Taking each year's message, Hannah and a colleague have compared the number of words she has used to the number of unique words used by rappers and singers in their music. Hannah also explains that she has found a way of generating her own Queen's Christmas Speech, using a simple algorithm to suggest passages that the Queen might say judged on her previous messages.

Does Britain rely on imports of Danish sperm?

A listener contacted the programme to say they'd heard on BBC Radio 4's Today programme that 80% of the UK economy is services. Could that really be right, they asked. We speak to Jonathan Athow from the Office for National Statistics to find out whether the claim is correct (Clue: it is).

And are there really more statues of goats than women in the UK?

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford questions the usefulness of a popular heart age calculator.

In the wake of the Paris killings, an imam in Paris told the BBC that 95% of terrorism victims around the world are Muslim. Is that true? More or Less speaks to Erin Miller of the Global Terrorism Database.

The reported death toll of the Boko Haram attack in Baga, Nigeria, this month has ranged from 150 to more than 2000 people. More or Less speaks to Julian Rademeyer of Africa Check, who's been trying to get to the truth.

Which are the world's worst boardgames? Oliver Roeder, a senior writer for the website FiveThirtyEight, has done a statistical analysis of player reviews to answer this question. He's also been looking at which are considered to be the best. Tim Harford challenges Oliver to a transatlantic game of Snakes and Ladders.

And the coverage of the Living Planet Index and its claim that species populations have dropped 50% in the last 40 years aroused much suspicion among More or Less listeners. The team looks at what the figure means and how it was calculated.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Post-election spending, terrorism victims, Nigeria death toll and the worst board games.

Have 25% of guide dogs in London been hit by a cyclist? Tim Harford fact-checks the numbers behind a questionable headline.

The Justice Secretary Chris Grayling has said an 'unexpected' rise in the prison population is in part driven by 700 more sex offenders being sentenced this year than last. But is this really what's driving the numbers? Tim Harford speaks to Carol Hedderman, visiting scholar in criminology at University Of Cambridge.

Internet rumours abound that 10,600 people have died within six weeks of being pronounced fit to work. But the numbers are not quite all they seem. Tim Harford takes a close look at them with Tom Chivers of The Daily Telegraph.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford scrutinises claims made about the outbreak. Plus guide dogs, prisons and ATOS.

Sepsis - do 44,000 people die of it a year? Is it the country's second biggest killer? We speak to Dr Marissa Mason about the difficulties of knowing the numbers.

Dan Bouk tells the story of a statistician who crept around graveyards in South Carolina at the turn of the century recording how long people lived - all to help out an insurance firm.

It's from his book 'How our days became numbered' - looking at how data from insurance company has shaped knowledge about our lives.

Have refugees caused a gender imbalance in Sweden or is there something funny going on? It has been reported that there are 123 boys for every 100 girls aged between 16 and 17 in Sweden. In China, the ratio is 117 boys to 100 girls. We explore if the numbers add up and why this might be.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Are there problems with the way we judge the harms from alcohol? Tim Harford finds out.

On the 20 September 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, where residents are United States citizens. George Washington University has published a report – commissioned by the Puerto Rican government – claiming that the hurricane accounted for nearly 3,000 deaths in Puerto Rico. President Trump disputed these official figures, tweeting that the Democrats were inflating the death toll to 'make me look as bad as possible'. So, who is right, and how do you determine who died as a result of a natural disaster? Tim Harford speaks to the lead investigator of the George Washington University report, Dr Carlos Santos-Burgoa.

The shadow chancellor John McDonnell recently claimed 'for the first time shareholders now take a greater share of national income than workers'. But is it true? Tim Harford speaks to The Financial Times’ economics editor Chris Giles.

Loyal listener David from Sheffield has been in touch to query a claim he heard on BBC Radio 4’s Start the Week that more people visit museums than attend football matches. Ruth Alexander finds out if we really do favour culture over the nation’s game.

Plus, what is the most dangerous sport? Tim Harford thinks he has the definitive answer.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Tim Harford on child carers, shareholder income, football, museums and dangerous sports.

On the 20 September 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, where residents are United States citizens. George Washington University has published a report – commissioned by the Puerto Rican government – claiming that the hurricane accounted for nearly 3,000 deaths in Puerto Rico. President Trump disputed these official figures, tweeting that the Democrats were inflating the death toll to make me look as bad as possible. So, who is right, and how do you determine who died as a result of a natural disaster? Tim Harford speaks to the lead investigator of the George Washington University report, Dr Carlos Santos-Burgoa.

On the 20 September 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, where residents are United States citizens. George Washington University has published a report ? commissioned by the Puerto Rican government ? claiming that the hurricane accounted for nearly 3,000 deaths in Puerto Rico. President Trump disputed these official figures, tweeting that the Democrats were inflating the death toll to 'make me look as bad as possible'. So, who is right, and how do you determine who died as a result of a natural disaster? Tim Harford speaks to the lead investigator of the George Washington University report, Dr Carlos Santos-Burgoa.

The shadow chancellor John McDonnell recently claimed 'for the first time shareholders now take a greater share of national income than workers'. But is it true? Tim Harford speaks to The Financial Times? economics editor Chris Giles.

Loyal listener David from Sheffield has been in touch to query a claim he heard on BBC Radio 4?s Start the Week that more people visit museums than attend football matches. Ruth Alexander finds out if we really do favour culture over the nation?s game.

On the 20 September 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, where residents are United States citizens. George Washington University has published a report - commissioned by the Puerto Rican government - claiming that the hurricane accounted for nearly 3,000 deaths in Puerto Rico. President Trump disputed these official figures, tweeting that the Democrats were inflating the death toll to 'make me look as bad as possible'. So, who is right, and how do you determine who died as a result of a natural disaster? Tim Harford speaks to the lead investigator of the George Washington University report, Dr Carlos Santos-Burgoa.

The shadow chancellor John McDonnell recently claimed 'for the first time shareholders now take a greater share of national income than workers'. But is it true? Tim Harford speaks to The Financial Times' economics editor Chris Giles.

Loyal listener David from Sheffield has been in touch to query a claim he heard on BBC Radio 4's Start the Week that more people visit museums than attend football matches. Ruth Alexander finds out if we really do favour culture over the nation's game.

HOW TO REDUCE EXAM REVISION WITH MATHS

A self-confessed lazy student has asked for help with his exams - what's the minimum amount of revision he needs to do in order to pass? Rob Eastaway from Maths Inspiration does the sums.

A BILLION DEAD BIRDS?

It's claimed that a billion birds in America die each year by flying into buildings. Where does this number come from and how was it calculated - and is it remotely correct?

LONDON v NEW YORK CITY

It was reported earlier this year that London's murder rate was higher than New York City's for the first time - but how do the two cities compare a few months down the line, and is there any value in making these snapshot comparisons?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Fenton-Smith

Editor: Richard Vadon.

Tim Harford explains how maths can help lazy students reduce their revision workload.

Ed Balls

Did the former MP get more votes at a general election or performing on the BBC show Strictly Come Dancing? We wanted badly to answer our listener’s question but we struggled to get to the truth.

Is modern life really killing our children?

Earlier in the year there were many headlines about cancer in children and young people having risen 40%. The Telegraph headlined their piece ‘Modern Life is Killing Our Children’ stating that air pollution, powerlines, pesticides and poor diets were possible causes of the rise. The piece was based on work by a charity Children with Cancer UK. But as we’ve discovered the numbers are deceptive and they’ve been dismissed as scaremongering. Is modern life killing our children? – no, more like it’s saving them.

The economics of dining couples

Imagine you’re out to dinner with a date. You’re looking at the menu thinking about what you will have. Now you may not immediately think that economics could play a part in explaining what happens next, but Megan McArdle has been thinking about just that. She’s the author of The Upside of Down and a columnist at Bloomberg View. She says that couples – and indeed she and her husband – go through four stages of how they choose their food.

How risky is the contraceptive pill?

Many of the potential side effects of the pill, such as blood clots, have been well documented since its release in the 1960s. And now, a study has claimed to have established a link between depression and the pill. But perhaps the main risk women face is poorly interpreted statistics.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Image: Tourists in Parliament Square, Westminster/Credit Getty

The economic doom that never was; childhood cancer figures and Ed Balls

Did the former MP get more votes at a general election or performing on the BBC show Strictly Come Dancing? We wanted badly to answer our listener?s question but we struggled to get to the truth.

Earlier in the year there were many headlines about cancer in children and young people having risen 40%. The Telegraph headlined their piece ?Modern Life is Killing Our Children? stating that air pollution, powerlines, pesticides and poor diets were possible causes of the rise. The piece was based on work by a charity Children with Cancer UK. But as we?ve discovered the numbers are deceptive and they?ve been dismissed as scaremongering. Is modern life killing our children? ? no, more like it?s saving them.

Imagine you?re out to dinner with a date. You?re looking at the menu thinking about what you will have. Now you may not immediately think that economics could play a part in explaining what happens next, but Megan McArdle has been thinking about just that. She?s the author of The Upside of Down and a columnist at Bloomberg View. She says that couples ? and indeed she and her husband ? go through four stages of how they choose their food.

Did the former MP get more votes at a general election or performing on the BBC show Strictly Come Dancing? We wanted badly to answer our listener's question but we struggled to get to the truth.

Earlier in the year there were many headlines about cancer in children and young people having risen 40%. The Telegraph headlined their piece ‘Modern Life is Killing Our Children' stating that air pollution, powerlines, pesticides and poor diets were possible causes of the rise. The piece was based on work by a charity Children with Cancer UK. But as we've discovered the numbers are deceptive and they've been dismissed as scaremongering. Is modern life killing our children? - no, more like it's saving them.

Imagine you're out to dinner with a date. You're looking at the menu thinking about what you will have. Now you may not immediately think that economics could play a part in explaining what happens next, but Megan McArdle has been thinking about just that. She's the author of The Upside of Down and a columnist at Bloomberg View. She says that couples - and indeed she and her husband - go through four stages of how they choose their food.

After the Brexit vote in June, so many Britons applied for Irish passports that Ireland's foreign minister had to ask them to stop - pointing out that the UK remains, for now, in the EU. If some of the figures that have been quoted are correct, the Irish passport service may find itself completely inundated in future. But does one in four Britons really have Irish heritage? We reveal the dubious history of that number and attempt to estimate the number of Britons who are actually entitled to dual nationality with Ireland.

Do women's periods sync?

It is a commonly held belief that if women spend time together, their bodies start to sync and they will have their periods at the same time. But where does this idea come from? And is it really true? We look at the evidence and wonder - could it be down to chance?

Numbers in music

Marcus du Sautoy takes us on a journey through some of his favourite musical pieces, pointing out the interesting mathematical patterns hidden in the compositions.

Dangerous algorithms

Cathy O'Neil, a data scientist and activist, has written a new book, 'Weapons of Math Destruction.' She is concerned about the proliferation of certain kinds of algorithms - that help make important decisions, but that could be based on unfair statistics with hidden biases. She explains how to look out for them, and what we can do to protect ourselves.

Desk of Good News - organ donations

We look at the trends for organ donations and transplants.

Do one in four Brits claim Irish ancestry?

Who is in the global 1% of wealthiest people, and where do they live?

More than 200 of the MPS voting on the 2012 NHS reform have recent or current financial connections to private healthcare, a recent editorial in the British Medical Journal claimed. Richard Vadon and Keith Moore explain why it's not true.

Sixty bodies in 6 years - is a serial killer stalking the canals of Great Manchester? Hannah Moore investigates a theory first raised by the Star on Sunday's crime editor Scott Hesketh.

Plus the programme hears from Professor Carlos Vilalta from the University of California San Diego and Steven Dudley from Insight Crime about claims that '98% of homicides in Mexico are unsolved.' A shocking statistic, but is it true?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford asks if the majority of hate crime in the UK is directed against Jewish people

Help for number-phobes

The term 'maths anxiety' has become more popular in recent times, people who are scared of or hate numbers. We found an organisation that is determined to help. Citizen Maths is a free online course designed to help adults become more confident with maths in both work and everyday life. To test this out we found a digit dodging colleague willing to give the course a try. Noel-Ann Bradshaw from Citizen Maths spoke to us about the state of maths in Britain today.

When is a cut not a cut?

This week Jeremy Corbyn sent out a Tweet stating that if elected, Labour would stop Conservative cuts of £22 billion to the NHS. The NHS is certainly facing funding difficulties over the coming years with a rising and ageing population. But we explain how it's not correct to suggest that funding is being cut.

The mathematics of mazes

Children love a maze. Adults love a maze. And it seems mathematicians love them too. We send Jordan Dunbar to Crystal Palace with maze expert Dr Ruth Dalton, to put some classic mathematical methods to the test.

But can a wooden die, some office post-it notes and a thorough understanding of mathematical probability really save Jordan when he gets lost amidst the hedges?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

It looks like homicides are on the rise - but better check the footnotes.

Oliver Hart interview

The Nobel memorial prize in economics was recently awarded to Oliver Hart. He talks to Tim Harford about his work on incomplete contracts. He explains how people drawing up a contract to work together can never foresee every eventuality – and what can be done about it.

The chocolate muffin puzzle

Last week we set a puzzle for listeners. Two members of the team ate a chocolate muffi More Or Less

During the election for the leadership of the Labour Party in the UK Jeremy Corbyn has whipped up unprecedented support among grass roots activists pushing him into a surprising lead. Bernie Sanders the left-wing Democratic candidate has done the same energised grass roots support in the United States in a similar way. Their supporters believe in both cases they can shake up the political mainstream and convince non-voters to turn out at the ballot box. But is this a wise strategy?

The latest on deaths for people admitted at a weekend?

Reports suggested 11,000 are dying in hospital after being admitted at the weekend but what does the report actually say?

Too dense

Is the UK already more densely populated than other places in Europe and is this a good argument against taking more refugees.

How many houses do we need?

We're told that we need to build 200,000+ houses a year to meet housing need in this country. We talk to Kate Barker the woman who first came up with this number about where it comes from and what it means.

How many bananas will kill you?

There's a belief among some people that too many bananas will kill you. Eat too many and you will overdose on potassium and die. But how many bananas would you need to eat?

Can the left rely on non-voters to get them into power? Tim Harford looks at the numbers.

Has the new tuition fees regime saved money? Newsnight's Chris Cook talks Tim through the numbers.

Is infidelity among cruise ship passengers rife?

How many political seats are genuinely safe? David Cowling, editor of BBC Political Research, looks at the numbers.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford looks at claims that keen runners might be damaging their health.

Donations to the Manchester Dogs' Home have exceeded £1m in the wake of a fire, which killed more than 50 dogs. The large sum raised caused Today presenter Justin Webb to comment that it often seems easier to raise money for animals than humans who are in need. Is it true that we give more generously to animals? Ben Carter reports.

Is Britain poorer than every US state, except for Mississippi? Journalist Fraser Nelson calculates that's the case. Tim Harford speaks to economist Chris Dillow about why he's right.

An edition of BBC Four's Wonder of Animals states that there are 14,000 ants to every person on earth, and that were we to weigh all of these ants they would weigh the same as all the people. Can this be true? Tim Harford and Hannah Moore investigate with the help of Francis Ratnieks, professor of at the University of Sussex.

Friday, September 19 is Huntrodds' Day - a chance to celebrate coincidence and the extraordinary tale of Mr and Mrs Huntrodds. As Michael Blastland explains, they shared their birthday and day of death.

A complaint has been held up against a BBC programme for calling Eritrea 'tiny'. Can any country rightly be described this way?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford on kidney donation, charity-giving, Huntrodds' Day, ants and tiny countries.

A recent Guardian front page suggested that sexual harassment at British universities is at 'epidemic levels'. We looked at the data cited and we are not so sure the evidence backs that up.

Maths teacher and performer Kyle Evans takes us on a mathematical journey of some of his favourite songs. He checks the Beatles, Bob Dylan and Kate Bush for the accuracy of their lyrics.

Do the Conservatives really have a 20 point lead over Labour in the opinion polls? We have been sceptical in the past of the accuracy of polling. We speak to Matt Singh about whether we need to be worried again now.

Recent headlines suggested that returning to blue passports once we leave the EU may cost half a billion pounds. We discover this is not at all what it seems.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Are people's incomes falling? Plus singing Pi like Kate Bush.

Back to school, and there's good news: apparently more and more children are in schools rated 'good' or 'outstanding'. But our loyal listeners wonder if the improvement is real and we think they're right to ask the question. While there is evidence of genuine progress, that's not the only thing going on. Tim Harford discusses the statistics with education journalist Laura McInerney.

Are female tennis players treated unfairly by umpires? After Serena Williams' outburst at the US Open and her claim that she was judged more harshly by the umpire because she was a woman, we look at what the statistics can tell us about whether men are treated more favourably than women when they break the rules.

Are you more chimp or Neanderthal? We're talking about DNA, not spirit animals. We often hear scientists talking about how we are related but what's the difference between 96% similarity and sharing 20% of our DNA, and do some of us literally have pieces of Neanderthal within us? Tim speaks to Professor Peter Donnelly to help answer this genetic generation game.

And the results of the great goat statue count are in.

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford on what statistics tell us about suicide, good schools and sexism in tennis.

Did missed appointments cost the NHS £1 billion last year?

New figures published recently suggest that the financial cost to the NHS for missed appointments was £1 billion last year. But our listeners are curious. How has this figure been worked out? And don't missed appointments actually ease the pressure on an overcrowded system?

Graduate pay - is it always higher than non-graduates' pay?

It is often claimed that if you go to university and get a degree, you will earn more than those who do not. But is that always true? We take a look to see if there are occasions when having a degree makes little difference or whether the benefit of a degree has changed over time.

How much cocaine is on a bank note?

Tim Harford speaks to Richard Sleeman who works for a firm, Mass Spec Analytical, that specialises in working out how much cocaine can be found on bank notes across the country. Do some parts of the country have more cocaine on their notes than others? Is it true that 99% of bank notes in London have cocaine on them?

Is it true that one in five can't name an author of literature?

Last year the Royal Society of Literature made this claim - but what was it based on? It turns out a polling company found that 20 percent questioned failed to name a single author. Should we be surprised? We took a look at the data.

Diet Coke Habit

The New York Times claims that Donald Trump drinks 'a dozen' Diet Cokes a day. With each can of 330ml containing 42mg of caffeine - what impact, if any, could this have on the President's health?

Do missed appointments cost the NHS £1 billion? And do you always earn more with a degree?

New figures published recently suggest that the financial cost to the NHS for missed appointments was £1 billion last year. But our listeners are curious. How has this figure been worked out? And don't missed appointments actually ease the pressure on an overcrowded system?

Graduate pay - is it always higher than non-graduates' pay?

It is often claimed that if you go to university and get a degree, you will earn more than those who do not. But is that always true? We take a look to see if there are occasions when having a degree makes little difference or whether the benefit of a degree has changed over time.

How much cocaine is on a bank note?

Tim Harford speaks to Richard Sleeman who works for a firm, Mass Spec Analytical, that specialises in working out how much cocaine can be found on bank notes across the country. Do some parts of the country have more cocaine on their notes than others? Is it true that 99% of bank notes in London have cocaine on them?

Is it true that one in five can't name an author of literature?

Last year the Royal Society of Literature made this claim - but what was it based on? It turns out a polling company found that 20 percent questioned failed to name a single author. Should we be surprised? We took a look at the data.

Diet Coke Habit

The New York Times claims that Donald Trump drinks 'a dozen' Diet Cokes a day. With each can of 330ml containing 42mg of caffeine - what impact, if any, could this have on the President's health?

Do missed appointments cost the NHS \u00a31 billion? And do you always earn more with a degree?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Series Producer: Jon Bithrey

Reporters: Josephine Casserly, Octavia Woodward, Ellie House

Sound Engineer: James Beard

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

A fall in those waiting longest for NHS treatment in England isn't telling the whole story

Counting the favourite words of well-known authors



Stephen King once said that wannabe authors should avoid using adverbs which end with ‘ly’ but does he follow his own advice? Data journalist Ben Blatt decided to find out. He also analysed texts written by some of the best known authors to discover the words they use obsessively, and why. Elmore Leonard whose book inspired the film Jackie Brown loved exclamation marks, while Vladimir Nabokov who wrote Lolita was keen on the colour ‘mauve.’

Presenter: Tim Harford

(Photo: American novelist Ernest Hemingway in 1954 on safari in Africa. Credit: Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

Stephen King once said that wannabe authors should avoid using adverbs which end with ‘ly' but does he follow his own advice? Data journalist Ben Blatt decided to find out. He also analysed texts written by some of the best known authors to discover the words they use obsessively, and why. Elmore Leonard whose book inspired the film Jackie Brown loved exclamation marks, while Vladimir Nabokov who wrote Lolita was keen on the colour ‘mauve.

Stephen King once said that wannabe authors should avoid using adverbs which end with ?ly? but does he follow his own advice? Data journalist Ben Blatt decided to find out. He also analysed texts written by some of the best known authors to discover the words they use obsessively, and why. Elmore Leonard whose book inspired the film Jackie Brown loved exclamation marks, while Vladimir Nabokov who wrote Lolita was keen on the colour ?mauve.?

Contributors include: Professor Jane Green, Helen Arney, Paul Lewis, Andrew Samson, Leonard Doyle , Peter Cunliffe-Jones, Farai Chideya, Claire Melamed and Professor John Allen Paulos.

Tim Harford looks back at some of the most interesting numbers behind the news in 2015.

Amid reports of nurses using food banks, Jeremy Hunt said he doesn't recognise claims their wages are worth less now than in 2010. He says nurses are actually paid £31,000 - more than the average person. If he's right, why do so many nurses say they're earning much less than that?

The Great Scottish Election Conspiracy

The reporting of the Scottish council elections has caused a bit of a stir. Did the SNP lose seven seats or gain six. The media including the BBC reported that they had lost seats, the many SNP supporters are sure that this isn't a fair representation of their performance. This all hinges on how you look at the results last time around and how you account for the major boundary review that took place between elections. Tim tries to get to the bottom of what has happened with Professor David Denver from Lancaster University.

Penalty shootout maths

What do coffee, stew and nerve-biting football finales have in common? Maths whizz and football aficionado Rob Eastaway explains all.

UEFA, European football's governing body, is currently trialling a new system for penalty shootouts. But what is the maths behind the new system - and could a century-old Scandinavian mathematical sequence offer a better approach?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Are nurses paid more than the national average? We take a look.

We'll also be looking at claims that those of us who aren't binging on drugs are binging on biscuits instead. Apparently much of the UK and almost the entire population of Ireland is going to be obese before long. But how have such alarming forecasts fared in the past?

We're often told that we consume so much that we need one and a half planets - and not just to provide room for all those obese people. What does that number even mean, and is it helpful?

Tim Harford looks at how recent obesity projections were calculated.

In Philip Hammond’s Autumn Statement he said that: “We will meet our pledge to our country’s pensioners through the triple lock.” This should ensure that the state pension continues to rise. However, are pensioners the ones struggling with stagnant incomes? We speak to the Institute for Fiscal Studies about who has a higher income – the retired or those working.

Predicting Norovirus outbreaks

The Food Standards Agency has been using Twitter to predict outbreaks of the ‘winter vomiting bug’. They want to warn the public as cases of Norovirus start to rise, rather than after they have seen a peak in lab reports. Dr Sian Thomas explains how social media can help.

Finding friends at a club

Have you ever been in a nightclub or festival and lost your friends? One PhD student has been modelling your options on finding them. Nathan Cunningham explains whether you should actively search for them, or stay put. We send out one of the team to try it out.

Air pollution deaths

Are 40,000 people dying a year in the UK from air pollution? Is breathing the air in London the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day? These are a couple of claims that have been in the news and shared online recently. We speak to Professor Anthony Frew from the Royal Sussex County Hospital about understanding the risks of air pollution.

Image: Pensioner playing the slot machines in a casino. Credit: John Moore/Getty

High-rolling pensioners, predicting norovirus, finding friends, and air pollution.

In Philip Hammond?s Autumn Statement he said that: ?We will meet our pledge to our country?s pensioners through the triple lock.? This should ensure that the state pension continues to rise. However, are pensioners the ones struggling with stagnant incomes? We speak to the Institute for Fiscal Studies about who has a higher income ? the retired or those working.

The Food Standards Agency has been using Twitter to predict outbreaks of the ?winter vomiting bug?. They want to warn the public as cases of Norovirus start to rise, rather than after they have seen a peak in lab reports. Dr Sian Thomas explains how social media can help.

In Philip Hammond's Autumn Statement he said that: `We will meet our pledge to our country's pensioners through the triple lock.` This should ensure that the state pension continues to rise. However, are pensioners the ones struggling with stagnant incomes? We speak to the Institute for Fiscal Studies about who has a higher income - the retired or those working.

The Food Standards Agency has been using Twitter to predict outbreaks of the ‘winter vomiting bug'. They want to warn the public as cases of Norovirus start to rise, rather than after they have seen a peak in lab reports. Dr Sian Thomas explains how social media can help.

Olympic Medals at Rio 2016

The Olympic Games are with us again. So how can we use statistics to predict how many medals each nation will win? We speak to Dr Julia Bredtmann, an economist at the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research.

Income inequality

Politicians and commentators often claim that the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer. But what do the numbers actually tell us about income inequality in the UK? Tim Harford interviews Jonathan Cribb of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the co- author of a comprehensive analysis of Living Standards, Income Inequality and Poverty in the UK.

Desk of Good News - Maternal mortality rates

The number of women dying in childbirth is falling around the world. In 1990, maternal mortality rates were 385 deaths per 100,000 live births

Today there are 216 deaths per 100,000 live births. This means the death rate is down by nearly half.

The Coastline Paradox

Why is it so difficult to measure coastlines? The further you zoom into the detail of a coastline, the longer it becomes. This is referred to as 'The Coastline Paradox'. We speak to Mairi Walker, a mathematician at the University of Edinburgh, and Danny Hyam, from The Ordnance Survey - the UK government agency responsible for mapping our coastlines.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Has a 5p charge caused a drop in the use of carrier bags?

On the eve of the UK's general election, Tim Harford takes a look at what polling data can tell us about predicting elections.

Plus, Matt Parker the stand-up mathematician is invited back to the programme to respond to a listener's query about his theory on the best way to find a life partner.

Is the number of Catholic nuns on the up? And Tim Harford explores polling data.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producers: Nathan Gower, Perisha Kudhail, Debbie Richford and Olga Smirnova

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: Sarah Hockley

Editor: Richard Vadon

Is school funding at record levels? Did 6.5bn creatures come to the UK by plane last year?

Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics used in everyday life

Is school funding at record levels? Why did the ONS change how they measure excess deaths? Did 6.5bn creatures arrive in the UK by plane last year?

The second piece of questionable research comes from reports that a quarter of a million UK students are getting money from 'sugar daddies' they met online. The story came from a sugar daddy website. They claim around 225,000 students have registered with them and have met (mostly) men for what they call 'mutually beneficial arrangements'. We explain our doubts over the figures.

There were reports recently that there will more plastic in the ocean than fish by 2050. The report comes from The Ellen MacArthur Foundation. But, as we discover, there's something fishy about these figures.

Away from advertising, studies have shown that children born in the summer do not perform as well as children born earlier in the academic year. For this reason schools are being encouraged to be sympathetic to parents that want their summer-born children to start a year later. But what should parents do? Is this a good option? We speak to Claire Crawford, Assistant Professor of Economics at the University.

Gemma Tetlow from the Institute for Fiscal Studies explains how some areas of public spending having fallen to similar levels seen in 1948. She explains how spending has changed over time, and what might happen in the future.

And friend of the programme, Kevin McConway, explains some of the statistical words that non-statisticians do not understand.

Women take selfies for five-and-a-half hours a day. Really? Tim Harford on junk surveys.

As a commitment appears in the Queen's Speech to introduce a 'truly seven day-a-week NHS' we look at David Cameron's assertion that mortality rates are 16% higher for people admitted on a Sunday over those admitted on a Wednesday. And is seven day working really about saving lives.

Productivity?

We're told we have a productivity problem in the UK. What is it, how is it measured and why is it so low in the UK compared to other economies. We get an economist to explain the answers to a listener.

Animal Slaughter

How many animals are killed each day for food? One claim suggested it was half a billion worldwide, which sounds like a lot to us. Are we really pigging out to such an extent? Are we all so hungry we could all eat a horse? Or is this just a load of bull?

John Nash

The mathematician and scientist, Nobel Laureate and subject of the film a beautiful mind was killed in car accident earlier this month. We look at why he was so important to game theory with the economist Peyton Young.

Tim Harford asks if people admitted to hospital at weekends are more likely to die.

We heard earlier this week that there had been a 60% rise in the number of cases of diabetes in the last ten years. But is there actually some good news in these figures?

Odd (attempted) burglaries

Police in Leicestershire have been sending forensic teams only to attempted burglaries at houses with even numbers. The papers reported it as a scandal driven by money-saving. But was it in fact a sensible attempt to work out how best to deploy tight resources?

Men who pay for sex

Do one in 10 men regularly pay for sex, as a Channel 4 Documentary claimed recently?

Loop

The ancient Greeks saw magic in the geometry of an ellipse and now mathematical writer Alex Bellos has but this to use in a new variant of pool.

Diabetes cases are soaring, but is this down to new diagnoses? Tim Harford investigates.

The attack on Manchester Arena took place exactly four years since the killing of Drummer Lee Rigby in Woolwich. Back in 2013 we broadcast an interview with the former Head of MI5, Dame Stella Rimmington, about the difficulties of monitoring people who have been flagged up to the services. We are re-visiting that interview.

Chances of ending up in a care home

There are around 11.6 million people over the age of 65 in the UK, but how many need social care services? A listener got in chances to say that he was 72 - what are the chances that he will need social care services in his lifetime? We look at the numbers of people in both residential care and receiving formal care services in the home currently.

Penalty shoot outs update

A few weeks ago we explained UEFA's new procedure for carrying out penalty shoot outs. We bring news of how that system is playing out, and how a loyal listener has spotted a famous pattern in Blur's song, 'Girls and Boys'.

Stop sneak peak access

For years statisticians have been calling for an end to the practice of allowing ministers and officials to see official numbers before everyone else. Why does it matter? We tell the strange tale exploring whether economic data is leaked to City traders before its official publication. Could pre-release access to Government statistics be behind strange movements on financial markets? With help from Mike Bird of the Wall Street Journal, and Alex Kurov of the University of West Virginia, we take a look at the evidence.

Also - a tribute to Sir Roger Moore.

Monitoring threats, chances of needing care plus who sees official stats first.

Boris Johnson has made the claim again that when the UK leaves the EU it will gain control of £350 million a week. The UK Statistics Authority has written to the Foreign Secretary to tell him it is a mis-use of official statistics to make this assertion. We take a look at why they have taken this action.

Disadvantaged students going to university

We look at two claims - is Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn correct to say that there are fewer students from disadvantaged backgrounds going to university now. Plus - is it true that disadvantaged students from England are twice as likely to go to university than those from Scotland.

Spanish vets

Is it true that British vets train for seven years while in Spain it only takes a year to qualify?

The value of Half a Crown from 1887

A loyal listener and a friend were recently discussing a Half Crown coin that they found at a sale. They wanted to know how much it would be worth in today's money. The answer is not as straight forward as you might think.

Foreign secretary Boris Johnson is accused of misusing official statistics.

How much difference will a ban on straws really make to the amount of plastic in our seas? Some say it could be just a drop in the ocean.

Women on boards

Why do people quote the number of women on FTSE 100 boards? Is it telling us something useful about the glass ceiling? We explore whether the proportion of female executives has changed over time, and what it tells us about women in business.

Using personal data for the public good

Recent headlines surrounding Facebook and Cambridge Analytica have kick started a debate about who should access our data. Hetan Shah, the Executive Director of the Royal Statistical Society, shares a plan he's had to make sure social media details are used for the public good.

The number of animals born each day

A ten year old listener got in touch to ask 'how many animals are born every day?' We set off on a hunt to the coast of Chile (well a simulated version at Penguin beach in London Zoo) to find the answer.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Editor: Richard Vadon.

Measuring plastic pollution, female FTSE directors and counting animal offspring.

The rise of the giants

Are rugby players really getting biger and bigger?

Living Blue Planet Index

Populations of marine mammals, birds, fish and reptiles have declined by 49% since 1970, a report says. But what does this actually mean?

Bean counter

The Office for National Statistics is much maligned whether it's its data revisions, the fact that some of it statistics have been deemed not fit for purpose or that we still haven't worked out why UK productivity is so low. So George Osborne has launched a review of the economic statistics spewed out by the ONS to see where improvements can be made. Tim talks to Professor Sir Charles Bean who is conducting the review.

Banana Equivalent dose

Following on from our revelation that bananas can't kill you even if you eat seven we look deeper into their radioactivity and the 'banana equivalent dose'.

Tim Harford asks are strikes on the rise, rugby players bigger and sea life in decline?

Are 40 percent of teachers leaving their jobs after their first year in post? Based on figures put out by a teaching union, newspapers reported the dire state of teacher retention. But we show how these figures include graduates who did not start jobs in teaching.

Big numbers do not just confuse most people - many computers struggle to process them too. Tim Harford talks to Chris Baraniuk who explains how a simple software bug afflicts computers controlling planes, spacecraft and has led to explosions, missing space probes and more.

In the aftermath of the general election, many people are calling for an overhaul of the electoral system to make it more representative of the number of votes that each party received. We take a look at how a different system may have affected the outcome. Plus - what questions might improve the quality of opinion polls asking for voter intentions?

Are strokes among working-age people on the rise? Presented by Tim Harford.

We also examine whether it's true that one tonne of ore produces one gram of gold, but one tonne of mobile phones contains 300 grams of gold and ask whether it means we're all walking around with tiny goldmines in our pockets.

The Pope sparked a global debate recently when he reportedly said that 2% of priests are paedophiles. We ask whether that claim is true. How would we know? What does it mean to say that someone is a paedophile? And is two per cent higher or lower than the population at large?

And machine learning is a buzzword of the moment, part of the technology behind things like Google translate and Microsoft's Kinect. Anthony Goldbloom from the website Kaggle explains how machine learning works, and talks about the next step - deep learning.

(Image: Education Costs - Mortar Board Graduation Cap Full of Coins. Credit: Thinkstock).

Tim Harford examines why the cost of the government's new student loan system is rising.

Does domestic violence increase by 30% when England loses a World Cup match? It’s a claim that’s often made and has most recently heard on the Freakonomics podcast. But is it true?

Is the tonic wine Buckfast really linked to 40 per cent of arrests in Scotland, as the website LADbible claims? Jordan Dunbar discovers the numbers are much exaggerated.

A listener noticed something rather strange while tucking into a bowl of his favourite cereal: “Sainsbury's Blueberry Wheaties purport to contain 72% wheat and 35% blueberry filling. This makes 107%. When I put this to Sainsbury's, I am met with incomprehension. ‘What's wrong?’ they say,' he emails. We investigate, and find out the supermarket is not making a mathematical mistake.

And, has there been a rapid resurgence in the number of babies being named Ian?

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Tim Harford on Spitfire pilots, and whether football triggers violence in the home.

A listener noticed something rather strange while tucking into a bowl of his favourite cereal: “Sainsbury's Blueberry Wheaties purport to contain 72% wheat and 35% blueberry filling. This makes 107%. When I put this to Sainsbury's, I am met with incomprehension. ‘What's wrong?’ they say, he emails. We investigate, and find out the supermarket is not making a mathematical mistake.

From the 10th July to the 31st of October 1940 the skies above Britain were a battle zone. The German Luftwaffe launched large scale attacks aiming to reach London, they were held back and ultimately defeated by the Royal Air Force which included many nationalities. The bravery of the pilots ? known as ?The Few? - cannot be disputed but is it really true that the average life expectancy of a spitfire pilot during the Battle of Britain was just four weeks, as is often claimed. Tim Harford and Lizzy McNeill look into the statistics and consider which of the armed forces had the highest death rate.

Does domestic violence increase by 30% when England loses a World Cup match? It?s a claim that?s often made and has most recently heard on the Freakonomics podcast. But is it true?

A listener noticed something rather strange while tucking into a bowl of his favourite cereal: ?Sainsbury's Blueberry Wheaties purport to contain 72% wheat and 35% blueberry filling. This makes 107%. When I put this to Sainsbury's, I am met with incomprehension. ?What's wrong?? they say,' he emails. We investigate, and find out the supermarket is not making a mathematical mistake.

From the 10th July to the 31st of October 1940 the skies above Britain were a battle zone. The German Luftwaffe launched large scale attacks aiming to reach London, they were held back and ultimately defeated by the Royal Air Force which included many nationalities. The bravery of the pilots - known as ‘The Few' - cannot be disputed but is it really true that the average life expectancy of a spitfire pilot during the Battle of Britain was just four weeks, as is often claimed. Tim Harford and Lizzy McNeill look into the statistics and consider which of the armed forces had the highest death rate.

Does domestic violence increase by 30% when England loses a World Cup match? It's a claim that's often made and has most recently heard on the Freakonomics podcast. But is it true?

A listener noticed something rather strange while tucking into a bowl of his favourite cereal: `Sainsbury's Blueberry Wheaties purport to contain 72% wheat and 35% blueberry filling. This makes 107%. When I put this to Sainsbury's, I am met with incomprehension. ‘What's wrong?' they say,' he emails. We investigate, and find out the supermarket is not making a mathematical mistake.

When we lie and tell the truth online

Researchers are very excited about the amount of data that is being generated by people using social media and internet tools. But what can we really glean from that information. Seth Stephens-Davidowitz has written a book called Everybody Lies where he explores the image we portray on social media versus the truths we tell about ourselves by what we search online. We also find out some speed dating tips.

We still have sea ice

Recently BBC 4 aired a documentary from 2007 which made the claim that by 2013 all the sea ice in the world would have disappeared during summer due to global warming. It is 2017 and that has not happened. We find out why that prediction was wrong and what is really happening to sea ice.

Maths and cake

Dr Eugenia Cheng takes us through a tour of real life items that she likes to use as the basis to explain more complicated mathematical ideas. We find out how she uses hotels, cakes and yoghurt to illustrate her ideas.

Exploring the Labour manifesto's tax plans for high earners.

He looks at Ed Balls sleight of hand in his speech to the Labour Party Conference with Carl Emmerson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Is Ed Miliband's promise on NHS funding really worse than the funding increases delivered by Margaret Thatcher? Tim asks John Appleby Chief Economist at The think-tank The Kings Fund.

And how do we know how far away is the sun really is? Astrophysicist, Andrew Pontzen from University College London explains all.

Tim Harford explains the Barnett Formula and asks why it is so maligned.

The BBC - and many others - announced that on Monday the Dow stock index saw it's biggest ever fall. Tim Harford skewers this alarmist nonsense: what matters is the percentage fall, which was sizable but has been seen many times before. We also explain why real stock-watchers look at the S&P, not the Dow.

The cost of tampons

Amid the debates on period poverty and the 'tampon tax' it has been suggested that women spend £13 a month on sanitary products on average. But is that fair? The number comes from a survey asking women what they think they spend, but we take a trip to the shops to compare prices and we're not so sure that is a reasonable amount.

Park Run Part II

Has our running about eagerly correspondent Jordan Dunbar survived Britain's hardest parkrun?

Are 25% of citizens in the UK criminals?

How many of us in the UK are convicted criminals? According to barrister Matthew Scott it's as high as 25%. That seems like an awful lot, so we speak to crime statistics expert Professor Susan McVie to see if his numbers stand up under closer examination.

What proportion of women got the vote in 2018?

Not all women got the vote in 2018. We look at the numbers behind women's suffrage. Do they reveal an important reason why the establishment fought so hard to stop all women getting the vote?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Why the biggest ever fall in the Dow wasn't, and how much do women spend on tampons?

Tim Harford and the team try to work out how long Covid cases will continue to rise.

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid restrictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this “freedom day or an unnecessary gamble with people’s lives?

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid-19 restrictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this 'freedom day' or an unnecessary gamble with people?s lives?

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid-19 restrictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this 'freedom day' or an unnecessary gamble with people's lives?

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid restrictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this “freedom day or an unnecessary gamble with people's lives?

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid restrictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this ?freedom day or an unnecessary gamble with people?s lives?

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid restrictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this ?freedom day or an unnecessary gamble with people?s lives?

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid restrictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this “freedom day' or an unnecessary gamble with people's lives?

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid restrictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this ?freedom day or an unnecessary gamble with people's lives?

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid restrictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this ?freedom day or an unnecessary gamble with people's lives?

On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid restrictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this “freedom day' or an unnecessary gamble with people’s lives?

After the recent announcement that all schools would be converted to academies, a number of listeners have asked us to look into the evidence of how they perform. Education Secretary Nicky Morgan wrote a guest post on Mumsnet and More or Less were called upon to check her numbers.

The popular TV show The Only Way is Essex claimed in its 200th episode that it had contributed more than a billion pounds to the UK economy. We investigate if this is true.

Plus, can we trust food surveys? Stories about which foods are good and bad for you, which foods are linked to cancer and which have beneficial qualities are always popular. But how do experts know what people are eating? Tim Harford speaks to Christie Aschwanden, FiveThirtyEight's lead writer for science, about the pitfalls of food surveys. She kept a food diary and answered nutrition surveys and found many of the questions were really hard to answer.

Does the European Union dedicate 26,911 words to cabbage regulation?

Over the Bank Holiday weekend a news story from the consumer advice website Which caught a lot of attention. It was claimed that WH Smiths is the least liked shop on the high street. But exactly how did researchers work that out? We take a look at the survey they conducted.

Counting the homeless

We often hear numbers in the news about how many people are sleeping rough on the streets of the UK

According to the latest official figures around 4700 people were sleeping in the streets in the autumn of 2017.

And that got us thinking. These statistics aren't just downloaded from some big database in the sky. They need - like any statistic - to be collected and calculated. So we ask a simple question: how do you count the number of people sleeping rough?

How safe are home births?

Is giving birth at home as safe as giving birth in hospital? How many women have the choice to do so, and does it make a difference if you've already had a child? We try to cut through the noise and find out what the statistics say.

Harry Potter: how many wizards?

Fans of Harry Potter have been asking - just how many wizards live among us? We follow a trail of clues in J K Rowling's best-selling books to provide the definitive estimate of the wizarding population.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Editor: Andy Smith.

Is WH Smith really the worst on the high street? Plus how safe is giving birth at home?

Recently one of our listeners contacted us to say he heard a BBC correspondent describe the iPhone as the most profitable product in history. It was just an off-the-cuff comment but it got us thinking - could it be true? We asked listeners to get in touch with their suggestions. We take a look at a handful of them, from Viagra to popcorn in our quest for an answer. Could it be something more historical?

EU and trade

We take a look at the numbers on trade and at the UK's relationship with the EU. Tim Harford interviews Chad P. Bown, a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Leicester City's Premier League success

At the beginning of the football season we explored the fallibility of predictions from experts and fans. As the season is ending, that is the only prediction we made correctly - that they are usually very wrong. Leicester City has had an astonishing success in winning the English Premier League. We take a look at the numbers behind the team's performance.

Sexist Data Crisis

Are countries around the world failing to collect adequate details about their female citizens? Campaigners have argued we are missing data in areas that would help us understand women's lives better, for example land and inheritance rights. We also explore how women's work can be overlooked from labour surveys.

The most profitable product in history. Can the iPhone claim this accolade?

He claimed that the number of people in employment has been rising - when it’s been falling. And he made a claim that crime has fallen - when it’s risen. We discuss the truth, and what Parliament can do to defend it.

Plus, we examine the rules around testosterone and trans women’s participation in elite sport, and the spirit of Donald Rumsfeld is with us as we try to navigate the largely unknown world of fungi.

He claimed that the number of people in employment has been rising - when it?s been falling. And he made a claim that crime has fallen - when it?s risen. We discuss the truth, and what Parliament can do to defend it.

Plus, we examine the rules around testosterone and trans women?s participation in elite sport, and the spirit of Donald Rumsfeld is with us as we try to navigate the largely unknown world of fungi.

He claimed that the number of people in employment has been rising - when it's been falling. And he made a claim that crime has fallen - when it's risen. We discuss the truth, and what Parliament can do to defend it.

Plus, we examine the rules around testosterone and trans women's participation in elite sport, and the spirit of Donald Rumsfeld is with us as we try to navigate the largely unknown world of fungi.

If it seems the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this programme, Tim Harford gives you a break from the politicians and picks through the statistical crime scene of the debate looking for the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? He'll be looking at all of the big questions - the cost of the EU, immigration, lawmaking, regulations and trade. 1/2.

Tim Harford fact-checks the vital statistics from the EU referendum debate.

Many news outlets have reported this week that a Waitrose supermarket pushes up house prices in the surrounding area. It's based on research that also suggests that other supermarkets have a similar but smaller effect. We take a highly sceptical look at the correlation.

Statistics and the EU referendum campaign

We look at how the two campaigns, the media, and the much-discussed 'experts' used statistics during the EU referendum campaign. Tim Harford interviews Will Moy, director of Fullfact, and Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Antiques Roadshow

BBC One's Antiques Roadshow is a hugely popular television programme, where experts examine and value antiques and collectables. We ask whether the items featured really jump in value, or are we just seeing the price tag rise over the centuries in line with inflation? More Or Less reporter Charlotte McDonald heads down to the show to find out.

Computer Science and Socks

Tim Harford speaks to Brian Christian, co-author of 'Algorithms to Live by: The Computer Science of Human Decisions'. How can the techniques of computer science help us in every-day situations? And, most importantly, which algorithm will help our reporter Jordan Dunbar sort out his socks?

Tim Harford returns with Brexit, Trumpton, the Antiques Roadshow and some good news.

In the wake of the latest conflict in Gaza, many commentators have argued that there's a 'rising tide' of anti-Semitism in Europe. More or Less looks at the evidence to find out what we know about anti-Semitism, and whether they're right.

It's a 'fact' beloved of English teachers around the world: that Shakespeare, the greatest playwright in English, also had the greatest vocabulary. But research published earlier this year suggests English teachers might have to look elsewhere to establish the superiority of the Bard - apparently his vocabulary lags behind the best and most famous rappers of the last decades. Is this comparison fair, and if so, does it diminish the Bard's lustre?

And Jamie Oliver and Michelle Obama have both claimed that increasing levels of obesity mean that the current generation of young people are likely to live shorter lives than their parents. Tim delves into the statistics with Oxford University's Sir Richard Peto to find out if they're right.

Should we be more choosy about who benefits when we do a viral charity challenge?

The UK produces official statistics about all sorts of things - from economic indicators to demographic data. But it turns out there are no official figures for the number of transgender people in the UK. We explore what we do know, and what is harder to measure.

Do 4% of the population drink nearly a third of the alcohol?

According to recent headlines, just 4% of the population drink nearly a third of the alcohol sold in England. But can so few people really account for so much of the countries bar tab? We find out where the statistic came from.

Bank of England's Mark Carney says no to RPI

At a hearing of the House of Lords' economic affairs committee, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said it would be useful to have a single measure of inflation for consumers - and that CPI was a much better measure than RPI, which he said had 'no merit'. We find out why with the FT's Chris Giles.

A statistical take on parkrun

Every weekend over 1.5 million people run 5,000m on Saturday mornings for parkrun which is a free event that takes place all over the UK and indeed across the globe. Each runner is given a bar code, which is scanned at the end of the run and fed into a database showing them what place they came in their race- we take a look at which courses are the fastest, slowest, hardest and easiest.

Testing for a cough correlation between snooker and smoking

A listener emailed us this week to ask whether you can connect the number of coughs during snooker matches to the decline in smoking. We got counting to see if the theory was a trick shot - with help from John Virgo.

Photo: Jimmy White

Credit: Photo by Jamie McDonald/Getty Images.

How many transgender people are there in the UK? Plus a statistical take on parkruns.

Chief executive pay: a new survey from the High Pay Centre highlights how much higher CEO remuneration is compared to that of their workers. But Ben Carter discovers the figures aren't quite what they seem.

As the Gaza conflict continues, the fact that there are estimated to be nearly three times as many men as women among the Palestinian civilian casualties has been an issue in the spotlight. Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander look at why men are often over-represented in civilian death tolls, and how the statistics in this conflict are being gathered.

And, further adventures in the audio presentation of data with BBC Radio 4's Daily Service presenter, Andrew Graystone.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford discusses so-called 'troubled families', CEO pay and the Gaza conflict.

Is wildlife in decline?

Wildlife populations have plummeted by 58% since 1970, it has been reported. And if we continue this way the decline will be 67% 2020. But do these numbers stand up to scrutiny – can you really put a figure on wildlife decline and call it robust? Last time we looked at this topic we found problems. Have they been fixed?

Parliamentary seat boundaries

There have been many criticisms about the way the Boundary Commission has redrawn UK parliamentary seat boundaries. We look at what the critics have to say and see how the political parties may be affected.

Desk of Good News – women in parliament

The number of women in parliaments around the world is on the rise!

Escobar’s Cocaine Deaths

Pablo Escobar was one of the world’s most infamous drug traffickers. His story has been brought to life in the Netflix TV drama series ‘Narcos’. We find out the deadly truth behind the numbers in the Netflix series and the realities of Colombia’s drug trade in the early nineties.

Photo: Donald Trump at a Campaign Rally. Credit Darren McCollester/Getty

How the presidential hopeful has used statistics

The fact-checkers have been working overtime looking into the numbers used by Donald Trump during his campaign to become President of the USA. In the wake of the election next week, we take a look at some of Trump?s more outrageous statistical claims.

Wildlife populations have plummeted by 58% since 1970, it has been reported. And if we continue this way the decline will be 67% 2020. But do these numbers stand up to scrutiny ? can you really put a figure on wildlife decline and call it robust? Last time we looked at this topic we found problems. Have they been fixed?

Desk of Good News ? women in parliament

Escobar?s Cocaine Deaths

Pablo Escobar was one of the world?s most infamous drug traffickers. His story has been brought to life in the Netflix TV drama series ?Narcos?. We find out the deadly truth behind the numbers in the Netflix series and the realities of Colombia?s drug trade in the early nineties.

The fact-checkers have been working overtime looking into the numbers used by Donald Trump during his campaign to become President of the USA. In the wake of the election next week, we take a look at some of Trump's more outrageous statistical claims.

Wildlife populations have plummeted by 58% since 1970, it has been reported. And if we continue this way the decline will be 67% 2020. But do these numbers stand up to scrutiny - can you really put a figure on wildlife decline and call it robust? Last time we looked at this topic we found problems. Have they been fixed?

Desk of Good News - women in parliament

Escobar's Cocaine Deaths

Pablo Escobar was one of the world's most infamous drug traffickers. His story has been brought to life in the Netflix TV drama series ‘Narcos'. We find out the deadly truth behind the numbers in the Netflix series and the realities of Colombia's drug trade in the early nineties.

Recently Transport for London took the decision not to renew Uber's London license. One criticism of the company is that its drivers commit too many sexual offences. Billboards around the capital last year said that 32 of the 154 allegations of assault made against London taxi drivers between February 2015 and February 2016 involved Uber drivers. But is that a big number and how do the total number of allegations made compare to the years before Uber was even operating?

The Brits seeking European passports elsewhere

In partnership with Reality Check, More or Less has spoken to each of the other 27 countries in the EU to find out whether an increasing number of Brits living abroad have applied for citizenship. This has certainly been the trend in many countries. We'll reveal the most popular countries and tell the tale of how easy it may or may not have been to get the numbers!

How do we know if there is more domestic violence around?

If you want to look at whether the amount of domestic violence in the UK is going up or down, how would you measure it? Over the last three decades, this is something that Sylvia Walby, Professor of Sociology at Lancaster University, has been trying to figure this out. We speak to her about ways to improve the current statistics available.

Big polluters: container ships versus cars

A number of websites have claimed that '15 of the largest ships emit as much pollution as all the cars in the world.' That is a very catchy statement which gives an indication of the pollution produced by shipping containers around the world. But is it true. We look at the different types of emissions produced by container ships and cars.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Is Uber safe? The post Brexit dual nationality surge; measuring partner abuse.

It was reported in a number of the newspapers this week that UN staff are responsible for 60,000 rapes in a decade. We unpick the back of an envelope calculation that has resulted in this extraordinary figure.

Gender in literature

How are women depicted in books? Author Ben Blatt has carried out an analysis of the types of words used to describe them, and also their absence in some of the classics.

How many people did Stalin kill?

How do you extract facts from a regime that was so profoundly secretive? We speak to Professor James Harris and Professor Barbara Anderson about why there are so many different figures and how historians and demographers calculate death tolls by regimes.

The wealth of Mr Darcy

The male love interest of 'Pride and Prejudice' is supposed to be fabulously wealthy. It says in the early 19th century English novel that Mr Darcy has an income £10,000 a year - that seems to impress the fictional characters. Two hundred years later, it's not clear how remarkable it really is. We speak to Professor Stephen Broadberry of the University of Oxford.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Back of the envelope calculations on rape, and how many died under Stalin?

More people are suffering from malnutrition as a result of worsening food poverty, experts have warned', reported the BBC. But is this true? Tim Harford gets the facts straight with Professor Marinos Elia, who chairs the Malnutrition Action Group of the British Association for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition (BAPEN).

And does the 'Curse of Strictly Come Dancing' really exist? The tabloids think so, as they breathlessly report on the relationship break-ups of contestants and their dancing tutors on the BBC One show. But Tim Harford isn't so sure. He crunches the numbers with the help of John Moriarty, a maths lecturer at Manchester University.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford talks to YouGov and ICM about trying to gauge the political mood in Scotland.

Investigating the numbers in the news with Tim Harford.

Stray cats

Are there nine million stray cats in the UK? If so, this would significantly out-number the 7.4 million pet cats in the country. We were highly sceptical of this number – but what’s the actual number of stray cats in the UK?

Teacher dropout rate

A listener spotted a recent article suggesting that 30% of new teachers have dropped out of teaching at secondary state schools since 2010. The number is correct – but we explain why this isn’t news.

Puzzles

Alex Bellos explains the history behind the fashion in the media for setting brain teasers for the public. Plus – we set our own brain teaser to work out.

Desk of Good News - Literacy

More people can read around the world than ever before.

Image: Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton on the campaign trail. Photo credit: Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty

Who voted in the US elections? Plus are there nine million stray cats in the UK?

Are there nine million stray cats in the UK? If so, this would significantly out-number the 7.4 million pet cats in the country. We were highly sceptical of this number ? but what?s the actual number of stray cats in the UK?

A listener spotted a recent article suggesting that 30% of new teachers have dropped out of teaching at secondary state schools since 2010. The number is correct ? but we explain why this isn?t news.

Alex Bellos explains the history behind the fashion in the media for setting brain teasers for the public. Plus ? we set our own brain teaser to work out.

Are there nine million stray cats in the UK? If so, this would significantly out-number the 7.4 million pet cats in the country. We were highly sceptical of this number - but what's the actual number of stray cats in the UK?

A listener spotted a recent article suggesting that 30% of new teachers have dropped out of teaching at secondary state schools since 2010. The number is correct - but we explain why this isn't news.

Alex Bellos explains the history behind the fashion in the media for setting brain teasers for the public. Plus - we set our own brain teaser to work out.

Are you more likely to win prizes with newer Premium Bonds? We ask Radio 4's Money Box presenter Paul Lewis if there is any truth in this.

A few weeks ago many newspapers were reporting that alcohol was the cause of 70% of Accident and Emergency attendances over the weekends. Did the newspapers misunderstand the research?

Why was the polling in the run up to the General Election last year so wrong? We speak to Professor John Curtice, lead author on a report using the 2015 British Social Attitudes Survey to see if they could come up with better data.

There is great excitement over rumours that one of the predictions Einstein made in his theory of General Relativity has finally been observed. We ask UCL physicist Dr Andrew Pontzen why this is big news.

Plus, is the air in Beijing is so bad that it's like smoking 40 cigarettes a day? We investigate.

Jeremy Hunt says if you have a stroke at the weekend, you are 20% more likely to die.

Tim Harford asks what we do and don't know about income inequality in the UK, the US, and other countries around the world. He speaks to Professor Sir Tony Atkinson of Oxford University; Stewart Lansley, author of 'The Cost of Inequality'; and Professor Donald Boudreaux of George Mason University in Virginia.

Laughing in the face of risk:

David Spiegelhalter, the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University explains what led him to take on what could be his riskiest venture to date - appearing as a contestant on BBC One's Winter Wipeout. Really.

The magic of maths:

As a special Christmas treat, we're honoured to have a guest appearance from a top professor of maths and statistics - described by magician (and loyal listener) Paul Daniels as a 'legend'. Persi Diaconis, of Stanford University in California and co-author of 'Magical Mathematics', has an enthralling story to tell of how he discovered magic as a boy, and then, as a consequence, a love of maths. And to illustrate how closely maths and magic are linked, Crossing Continents editor and the BBC's in-house magician, Hugh Levinson, performs a mathemagical card trick - see the performance below.

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford discusses income inequality and discovers the maths in magic.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

Tim Harford asks whether there really is a problem with women drink driving.

Is the World Cup really responsible for the deaths of 1200 migrant workers in Qatar? We talk to the International Trade Unions Confederation who first published the figure.

The Independent on Sunday had a front page splash this week making a link between the HPV vaccine and one girls serious illness. They article also says that the number of cases of serious side-effects from the HPV vaccine being reported to the MHRA are much higher compared to other vaccines. The Independent have defended their journalism but we have spoken to a doctor who says the article cherry picks data and should be withdrawn.

We tell the story behind the chocolate experiment designed to deliberately fool the press.

And we solve the fiendish GCSE question that perplexed students so much it became a trend on Twitter.

Tim Harford asks if the World Cup is really responsible for migrant deaths in Qatar.

Andrew Dilnot presents the magazine which reports on the ways we use numbers, statistics, measurement and quantification of every kind, in the news, in politics and in life.

Featuring the man who can walk only by counting and the art of being statistically slippery.

'Andrew Dilnot presents the magazine which reports on the ways we use numbers, statistics, measurement and quantification of every kind, in the news, in politics and in life.Featuring the man who can walk only by counting and the art of being statistically slippery.'

'The first in a new six-part series in which Andrew Dilnot explores the numbers which are used in private life, politics and economics. Featuring this week a man who can only walk while counting, and the art of being statistically slippery. Producer Michael Blastland'

'The return of the show devoted to the powerful, often abused, but ever ubiquitous world of numbers. This week Andrew Dilnet investigates some of our most politically sensitive numbers -those in health care-and asks what figures about NHS performance really tell US - and what they don't. Producer Michael Blastland'

This edition includes an interview with Mervyn King, tipped to be the next Governor of the Bank of England.

'The guide to the public and private life of numbers, presented by Andrew Dilnot. This week an interview with Mervyn King, tipped to be the nextgovernor of the Bank of England, and an investigation into what the inflation statistics really tell us. Producer Michael Blastland'

'The magazine series devoted to the powerful, sometimes beautiful, often abused but ever ubiquitous world of numbers. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Editor Nicola Meyrick'

The magazine series devoted to the world of numbers. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Editor Nicoia Meyrick

'The magazine series devoted to the powerful, sometimes beautiful, often abused but ever ubiquitous world of numbers. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Editor Nicola Meyrick'

'The series devoted to the powerful, sometimes beautiful, often abused but ever ubiquitous world of numbers. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Editor Nicoia Meyrick'

'Is most crime violent? Are chimps sociable? A new series of he programme that gets the measure of al I things begins by looking at how we quantify behaviour. Andrew Dilnot gets out his stopwatch for a surprising variety of examples, with implications forthe way we perceive all manner of social and personal events. Producer Michael Blastland'

~More Or Less asks how well does news of danger measure up to the facts.

Also in the programme, the test which attempts to screen children for number blindness.

Also in the programme, the test which attempts to screen children for 'number blindness'.

'Andrew Dilnot presents the magazine programme devoted to the sometimes beautiful, often abused, but ubiquitous world of numbers. Producer Michael Blastland'

Also in the programme, is there any logic behind the way buses are numbered?

~More Or Less finds out how we measure the toxicity of substances.

Andrew Dilnot presents the lively magazine series devoted to the world of numbers.

Producer Michael Blastland

How do you measure how nice a business is? And did the language of maths hijack science?

~More Or Less asks what makes a good company.

Andrew Dilnot presents the magazine series devoted to the world of numbers. Producer Michael Blastland

~More Or Less asks where are all the men? What is the statistical evidence for the Bridget Jones syndrome - single career women finding it hard to meet a man.

Magazine series devoted to the world of numbers. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland

And we find out how a pack of cards can make sense of the laws of probability.

~More Or Less asks is pensioner poverty the measure of a pension crisis.

Andrew Dilnot presents the magazine series devoted to numbers. Producer Michael Blastland

And we find out how a pack of cards can make sense of the laws of probability.

~More Or Less asks is pensioner poverty the measure of a pension crisis.

Why does the threat of illness, including Sars, have at its heart arguments about measurement?

'A new series of the programme that looks at all the ways we see the world - through measurement, quantification, targets, risks, league tables, budgets and numbers everywhere. With Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

But who's counting? And how? Plus, do we routinely misuse cancer statistics?

'The magazine series devoted to the powerful, sometimes beautiful, often abused but always ubiquitous world of numbers. With Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

When it comes to earnings, where is the middle? And see how your pay compares.

Plus, we looked at gambling and round numbers.

The magazine series devoted to the world of numbers. With Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland

There are some who argue maths can explain complexity in nature better than evolution.

Plus, how reliable is DNA testing?

~More Or Less looks for the numbers in nature.

The magazine series devoted to the world of numbers. With Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland

The magazine series devoted to the world of numbers. With Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland

The magazine series devoted to the world of numbers. With Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Biastiand

Newseries 1/6. Andrew Dilnot returns with the guide to all the ways we use numbers to describe and argue aboutthe world. Amongtoday's questions: why might a surfeit of overdue babies be all in the counting? Producer Michael Blastland

2/6. Andrew Dilnot takes his weekly look at the ways we use numbers to describe and argue about the world. Among the questions for this week's programme: what have the Government's attempts to improve performance in the public sector got to do with the collapse of the Soviet economy? Producer Michael Blastland

3 /6. Andrew Dilnot looks at the numbers behind the news and figures out which stories do and don't add up. Producer Michael Blastland

4/6. Andrew Dilnot looks at the numbers behind the news and figures out which stories do and don't add up. Producer Michael Blastland

Andrew Dilnot looks at the numbers behind the news and figures out which stories do and do not add up.

5/6. Andrew Dilnot looks at the numbers behind the news and figures out which stories do and don't add up. This week he asks if the gap between Britain's richest and poorest neighbourhoods is any narrower under New Labourthanitwas under Margaret Thatcher. Producer Michael Biastiand

'2/7. Andrew Dilnot presents the essential guide to numbers, measurement and quantification of every kind: in the news, in our personal lives and elsewhere. Producer Michael Blastland'

'3/7. Andrew Dilnot presents the guide to numbers, measurement and quantification. producer Michael Biastiand'

'4/7. Andrew Dilnot presents the guide to numbers, measurement and quantification of every kind in our personal lives and elsewhere. Producer Michael Blastland'

'5/7. Andrew Dilnot presents the guide to numbers, measurement and quantification of every kind in our personal lives and elsewhere. Producer Michael Blastland'

'6/7. Andrew Dilnot presents the guide to numbers, measurement and quantification. Producer Michael Blastland'

'7/7. Andrew D!!not presents the guide to numbers, measurement and quantification of every kind in our personal lives and elsewhere. producerM!chae! B!ast!and'

'New series 1/6. The essential guide to numbers, measurement and quantification of every kind in the news. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. producer Michael Biastiand'

'2/6. The essential guide to numbers, measurement and quantification of every kind in the news. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

'3/6. The essential guide to numbers, measurement and quantification of every kind. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

'4/6. The essential guide to numbers, measurement and quantification of every kind. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

'5/6. The essential guide to numbers, measurement and quantification of every kind. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

Andrew Dilnot presents the essential guide to numbers, risk, league tables, targets, budgets, you name it; measurement and quantification of every kind in the news, our personal lives and elsewhere.

'Andrew Dilnot presents the essential guide to numbers, risk, league tables, targets, budgets, you name it; measurement and quantification of every kind in the news, our personal lives and elsewhere.'

Andrew Dilnot reports on all the ways we use numbers, STATISTICS, measurement and quantification of every kind, in the NEWS, in politics, in life.

Includes reports on how we get the reams of data so often quoted when a survey has shown....

Andrew Dilnot reports on all the ways we use numbers, statistics, measurement and quantification of every kind, in the news, in politics, in life. Includes reports on how we get the reams of data so often quoted when a survey has shown....

Includes reports on how we get the reams of data so often quoted when 'a survey has shown...'.

Andrew Dilnot reports on all the ways we use numbers, statistics, measurement and quantification of every kind, in the news, in politics, in life. Includes reports on how we get the reams of data so often quoted when 'a survey has shown...'.

'Andrew Dilnot reports on all the ways we use numbers, statistics, measurement and quantification of every kind, in the news, in politics, in life. Includes reports on how we get the reams of data so often quoted when 'a survey has shown...'.'

'New series 1/5 The return of the numbers magazine presented by Andrew Dilnot , reporting all the ways we use numbers and measurement - in the news, in politics and in life. With a report on how we get the data quoted when 'a Survey has shown ...' Producer Michael Blastland'

'Andrew Dilnot reports on all the ways we use numbers, statistics, measurement and quantification of every kind, in the news, in politics, in life. Includes reports on how we get the reams of data so often quoted when a survey has shown....'

Andrew Dilnot presents the essential guide to numbers, risk, league tables, targets, budgets, you name it; measurement and quantification of every kind in the NEWS, in politics and in life.

'Andrew Dilnot presents the essential guide to numbers, risk, league tables, targets, budgets, you name it; measurement and quantification of every kind in the NEWS, in politics and in life.'

'2/5. The essential guide to numbers, risk, league tables, targets budgets, measurement and quantification of every kind in the news, politics and in life. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

'3/5. The essential guide to numbers, risk, league tables, targets, budgets, measurement and quantification of every kind in the news, politics and in life. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

'4/5. The essential guide to numbers, presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

5/5. The essential guide to numbers. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland

'New series 1/7. The return of the magazine programme hat makes sense of numerical nonsense, a guide through the myriad numbers and statistics in the news, in politics, In life, showing where numbers have the power to explain an-d enlighten, as well as to deceive. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

2/7. Another edition of the numbers magazine that nvestigates subjects such as medicine, the climate, speed Carneras and plane crashes, and the statistics that underlie everyday claims to truth in the news, in politics and in life.

Resented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland

'3/7. Andrew Dilnot is the man with all the most vital statistics in the numbers magazine that investigates subjects as diverse as medicine, the climate, speed cameras and plane crashes, and the statistics that underlie everyday claims to truth in the news, in politics and in life. Producer Michael Blastland'

4/7. Andrew Dilnot is the man with all the most vital statistics as the numbers magazine investigates subjects that range from medicine to the climate, speed cameras to plane crashes, and the statistics that underlie everyday claims to truth in the news, in politics and in life.

Producer Michael Blastland

'5/7. Andrew Dilnot is the man with all the most vital statistics in the numbers magazine that investigates subjects that include medicine, the climate, speed cameras and plane crashes, and the statistics that underlie everyday claims to truth in the news, in politics, and in life. Producer Michael Blastland'

'6/7. Andrew Dilnot presents the numbers magazine that investigates subjects such as medicine, the climate, speed cameras and plane crashes as well as the statistics that underlie everyday claims to truth in the news, in politics, and in life. Producer Michael Blastland'

'7/7. Andrew Diinot presents the numbers magazine that investigates subjects including medicine, the climate, speed cameras and plane crashes, and the statistics that underlie everyday claims to truth in the news, in politics, and in life. Producer Michael Blastland'

'New series 1/6. The return of the magazine programme that makes sense of numerical nonsense, providing a guide to the many numbers and statistics in the news, in politics and in life, and showing where numbers have the power to explain and enlighten, as well as to deceive. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

2/6. The magazine programme that makes sense of numerical nonsense, a guide through the many numbers and statistics in the news, in politics and in life, showing where numbers have the power to explain and enlighten, as well as to deceive. Presented by Andrew Dilnot.

Producer Michael Blastland

'3/6. The magazine programme that makes sense of numerical nonsense, providing a guide through the myriad numbers and statistics in the news, in politics and in life, and showing where numbers have the power to explain and enlighten, as well as to deceive. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

'4/6 A guide to the many numbers and statistics in the news, in politics and in life. Presented by Andrew Dilnot. Producer Michael Blastland'

'5/6. Andrew Dilnot 's guide to numbers and statistics in the news, in politics and in life. Producer Michael Blastland'

'6/6. Andrew Dilnot 's guide to numbers and statistics in the news, in politics and in life. Producer Michael Blastland'

'6/6. Andrew Dilnot 's guide to numbers and statistics in the news, in politics and in life. Producer Michael Blastland'

'New series 1/10. Andrew Dilnot investigates the numbers that underlie everyday claims to truth in the news, in politics and in life. Producer Michael Blastland'

'Andrew Dilnot examines the ways in which numbers are used in the news, politics and everyday life. Producer Michael Blastland ; Editor Nicola Meyrick'

3/10. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers influence different aspects of daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

4/10. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers can affect aspects of daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

5/10. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers influence different aspects of daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

6/10. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers influence different aspects Of daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

'7/10. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers can influence different aspects of daily life, and the truth behind the statistics in the news. Producer Michael Blastland'

'8/10. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers can influence different aspects of daily life, and the truth behind the statistics in the news. Producer Michael Blastland'

9/10. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers influence different aspects of daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

Andrew Dilnot presents the magazine which reports on the ways we use numbers, statistics, measurement and quantification of every kind, in the news, in politics and in life

'

10/10. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers can influence daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

Drug Trial Risks Assessed

A recent inquiry under the auspices of the Royal Statistical Society has argued that the information given to volunteers about the risks involved has been seriously deficient. It adds that the data on serious adverse reactions in this kind of trial has not been properly collated, so that it has been impossible to say on past evidence how often they do go wrong. You can hear what those risks are now thought to be on More or Less.

Chimpanzee Numeracy

Plus the chimpanzees with better numeracy skills than people. More or Less presenter Andrew Dilnot found out how he compares.

And the first part of a wholly unscientific answer to an age old question: numbers - are they just a guy thing? Reporter Ruth Alexander investigates, somewhat mischievously, the evidence that women like them, but they just do not like admitting it.

And there was also the first report on a new way of conducting an election, being tried experimentally in the French presidential election, devised by a mathematician who hopes it may overcome many of the flaws in other voting systems.

Andrew Dilnot examines the risks of taking part in a drug trial.

New series 1/8. Andrew Dilnot returns with the programme that investigates numbers and their importance in everyday life. Producer Michael Biastiand

Railways, Safety and Privatisation

Clapham, Ladbroke Grove, Hatfield, Potters Bar. The list of tragic accidents on the railways in recent years is long.

~More Or Less this week examined claims that privatisation made them more dangerous.

Presenter Andrew Dilnot looks at both the explanations for those disasters - plausibly linking them to the break up of British Railways - and at the statistical trends before and after privatisation. Is the story what it seems?

And we returned to the inquiry by the Royal Statistical Society into the risks of new drug trials on healthy volunteers, to try to find out if the baseline risk, calculated by working out how often similar trials go wrong, will ever be told to volunteers.

At the moment, it looks as if the risk of serious adverse reaction for certain types of trial could be anywhere between about 1 in 50 and 1 in 2000.

Number Prejudices

Plus, our continuing investigation - not quite scientific, admittedly - into number stereotypes. They are a bloke thing, as everyone knows.

Or are they? Our reporter challenged the prejudices.

And listen to More or Less from the archives on what happened when we followed the International Passenger Survey teams as they monitored migration. The item can be heard three minutes into the programme.

Andrew Dilnot assess whether privatisation of the railways has made them more dangerous.

2/8 Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers can influence aspects Of daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

The Politics of Number Crunching

This week on More or Less, we offered the pick of the numbers from 10 years at Number 10 for Tony Blair.

There have been quite a few, what with an explosion of league tables, performance indicators, targets and the like, as well as the usual measures of the performance of the economy, and they have saturated the news and politics as never before.

But for what it tells us about how the country is changing and how the government has tried to influence its course, we examine one set of numbers in particular, said to be worthy of becoming Tony Blair's monument. Find out what they are, and what they tell us in this week's programme.

Big Numbers

We also had our own guide to the age of the trillion. It is a big number, but how big? And why has its time arrived? Get it into proportion with some suggestions from the team. And there was more on our reporter's continuing attempt to claim numbers from men. Brace yourself for some caricatures, as she set out to discover numbers' feminine side.

Lorenz Manifold

And see how beautiful maths can be with a crocheted version of the 'Lorenz Manifold', featured in this week's programme.

Andrew Dilnot analyses the government performance indicators over the last 10 years.

3/8. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers can influence different aspects Of daily life. Producer Michael Blastiand

This week on More or Less, the strange ways of human compassion and how we measure it out.

In a set of extraordinary experiments, Paul Slovic, a professor of psychology at Oregon University, and his colleagues, have tested people's compassionate instincts when the scale of the need increases.

They showed one group a picture of a starving girl with text describing her plight. Another group was shown a boy and a third was shown the boy and girl together. All were asked for donations.

The result was that donations were equal for the boy and the girl on their own, but actually fell once they were together. For groups of five or 10, donations fell precipitously.

Why does compassion struggle so much with numbers?

We spoke to Professor Slovic about his work and its implications, including for the difficulty of mustering a response to genocide.

Plus, why economics may be ready for a makeover, and the last in our series on why numbers are not necessarily for blokes only.

Andrew Dilnot looks at how numbers influence how much people give to charity.

4/8. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers influence different aspects Of daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

Measuring Children's Happiness

~More Or Less this week looked at the Unicef report that put the welfare of Britain's children at the bottom of an international league of rich nations.

Used by some to condemn the government's record, rubbished by others as biased and politically motivated, what is the truth about what the statistics tell us?

Presenter Andrew Dilnot led the investigation, and says we have picked up little of what is most striking about the data, and the real differences for children in Britain. The devil, as so often, is in the detail.

Smaller surveys for individual countries on which the Unicef report was based, show striking differences, for example, in the way children in England think of school and their friends compared with those in Wales and Scotland.

Black Market

And we looked at how we measure those things people do not want measured, in the black or shadow economy and found out why Polish plumbers might have caused it to shrink.

Rain

Plus, after a couple of weeks of drizzle or worse, why measuring rainfall is not quite the child's play we might expect, and why it is possible to get the wrong kind of rain.

Andrew Dilnot examines the numbers from a Unicef report about child welfare.

5/8. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers can influence aspects Of daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

~More Or Less this week takes a long look at a stark fact. The richest social class in Britain, the top 20%, live on average about seven-and-a-half years longer than the poorest.

But why? And what can be done about it?

The causes are not always as obvious as they seem.

Diet, for example, seems not to matter quite as much as we might think. Being overweight turns out to be associated with low social class for women, but not really for men.

And in any case, being a bit overweight does not seem to make much difference to life expectancy, although obesity does.

One factor, though, does stand out.

Smoking among men in the top class is about 2%. In the bottom class it is about 40%. And this is thought to cost them about three-and-a-half to four years of life.

But when we investigated efforts to encourage the changes of lifestyle that are thought to make the difference, we discovered another problem.

Even when we know what to do, reaching the people who could most benefit from it, proves extraordinarily tough.

Find out what can be done, and what cannot, in this week's More or Less.

Andrew Dilnot investigate why lifestyle may not be they only factor to longevity.

6/8. Andrew Dilnot explores the way numbers can influence different aspects of daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

Calculating Crime and Perception

Why do people not believe crime statistics?

In More or Less this week, Andrew Dilnot and the team examined a clash of perceptions and numbers.

They talked to those convinced of a crime epidemic, together with those asked for ways of restoring trust. Can it be done?

Part of the problem seems to be that crime figures are an aggregate for the whole country, when there can be wide variations in particular places, which mean that the country-wide figures may not correspond with people's local experience.

We looked at how this insight might just explain why people see crime differently, and what it implies about what to do about it.

Chill Winds

Also in the programme, reasons why the wind-chill factor may not add up and how the originator of it in the United Kingdom is feeling penitent.

Find out why, if you want it to work for you, you need to be five foot tall, a little overweight, out at night, and more.

And there is that modern piece of business speak 'the 800 lb gorilla'. How heavy is a gorilla really?

Plus some more news to qualify talk of a pensions crisis, and what private companies do not like about the deluge of data now available to them about the rest of us.

Andrew Dilnot explores why people doubt crime statistics.

7/8. Andrew Dilnot explores the influence of numbers in daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

Treating Patients on 'Gut Instinct

On More or Less this week, there was a story of a doctor with a hunch.

Against all the probabilities, the doctor could not help a suspicion that his young patient had a deadly disease, which needed urgent and drastic treatment.

The disease he feared was the flesh-eating bug, necrotizing fasciitis. But that is rare and highly unlikely.

All the statistical probabilities would have indicated that the doctors should watch and wait. The doctor's gut instinct, as he put it, was to go.

In More or Less, presenter Andrew Dilnot asked if difficult decisions should allow gut instinct.

For the fact is, that doctors who go against the odds are usually wrong. So how far can numbers help us take decisions?

Child's play

We also looked at economic models.

They sound like something out of the children's TV show Trumpton. What are they really, and do they work?

Plus the statistical science that is now volcanology, where measuring everything that moves and looking for correlations is how we now go about predicting volcanic activity. And one of the most curious correlations turns out to be with rain.

Is it better for a doctor to act on a hunch or rely on statistics?

8/8. Andrew Dilnot explores the influence of numbers on daily life. Producer Michael Blastland

1/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Drinking Problems?

These were just some of the newspaper headlines generated after the publication of a national drinking league table published earlier this month.

Some of Britain's most solidly middle-class towns - places like Guildford, Woking and Harrogate - were singled out as the areas with the highest levels of hazardous drinking.

Presenter Tim Harford spoke to Professor Mark Bellis, the director of the North West Public Health Observatory (one of the report's authors) about why those middle-class towns have been wrongly maligned. And how much alcohol is too much?

Making Millions From Maths

If you want to earn millions in the City these days, it pays to be good at maths. We look at life as a 'quant'.

William Hooper has made millions from maths

London has become an international centre for the world's most talented mathematicians who come here to earn a fortune working for banks and hedge funds.

These financial number crunchers are known as 'quants' or quantitative analysts.

Weather Forecast

What is the chance of rain? Does our poor grasp of probability mean we get the weather forecasts we deserve?

Tim Harford investigates how much alcohol is too much.

'New series 1/8. Tim Hartford of the Financial Times presents the series that looks at numbers in the news, politics and life in general. Producer Innes Bowen'

'1/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.'

2/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Migrant Figures

What proportion of the new jobs created since 1997 have gone to foreign workers?That is a question which the government has found difficult to answer.

The Department of Work and Pensions had to revise its answer three times in one week: first it said the proportion was 30%, then said it was 41%. The latest estimate is over half.

Why did the government get the figures wrong? Simple failure to add up everyone in the relevant categories and the use of projections to predict the future were part of the cause.

Presenter Tim Harford spoke to Frank Field MP who spotted the errors using a combination of guesswork, common sense and basic maths.

Our Survey Reveals...

Numbers sell and numbers tell a story. But is the story always true? Many of the surveys you read about have been commissioned by a company which wants to get its product in the newspapers and on the airwaves.

The numbers the surveys 'reveal' give the company a reason to be talking about the issue at hand and, in the language of the marketing companies, to 'own' that issue. Is it a bit of fun? Or getting in the way of real information?

A Kilo Crisis?

How much does a kilogram weigh? The guardians of the world's weights and measures are no longer sure.

Tim Harford investigate the relationship between academic surveys and PR companies.

2/8. Tim Hartford of the FT looks at numbers in the news and in general. Producer Innes Bowen

'2/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.'

'Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.'

From political speeches to glowing prime-time television series, the idea that our 'happiness' can be enhanced using public policy is more fashionable than ever.

But is it really plausible and useful to measure human well-being using numbers?

Professors Paul Ormerod and Richard Layard have been arguing, through the pages of Prospect magazine, about the extent to which governments can monitor and enhance our happiness.

We bring them together in the studio to debate the issues with presenter Tim Harford.

Tim Harford investigates the economics of happiness.

'3/8. Tim Harford of the Financial Times investigates the numbers that are everywhere: in the news, in politics and in life generally. Producer Innes Bowen'

4/8.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

4/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Predicting Bird Flu

As avian flu breaks out again in Britain, More or Less visited the scientists who advise the government on the risk of the disease spreading due to the migration of wild birds.

The British Trust for Ornithology is in charge of counting and tracking birds in Britain and Ireland.

Our reporter Ruth Alexander found out how they do this, and how the data they collect can be used to indicate whether wild birds could have brought the disease into the country and, if so, where they might be heading next.

Hospital Waiting Lists

'By 2008, no one will have to wait longer than 18 weeks from GP referral to hospital treatment.'

(NHS Improvement Plan, June 2004)

This commitment did not just mean dramatically cutting average waiting times for treatment.

The NHS has also had to change the way it measures waiting times and - as 2008 approaches - the new, more useful way of measuring how long people wait for treatment has revealed just how difficult the pledge will be to fulfil.

Speed Cameras

In the past we revealed how poor statistical analysis meant that it was not possible to say whether speed cameras reduced accidents and, if so, by how much.

The official figures did not take into account 'regression to the mean'. However now the numbers have been crunched properly.

Ruth Alexander reports on the methods used to predict the spread of avian flu.

4/8. Tim Hartford of the Financial Times looks at the power of numbers in the news and in everyday life. Producer Innes Bowen

'4/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.'

'Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.'

Quants Fortune

Earlier in the series we talked to some 'quants' (quantitative analysts)- the new breed of mathematicians making millions in banking and hedge funds. We loved the idea that the top number crunchers can now make as much money as a professional footballer or a pop star. But listener Gordon Petherbridge thought we were a little too uncritical of the quants:

'...the vast sums they acquire (as opposed to earn) are ultimately reliant on the exploitation of Joe Public and when, as inevitably they do, the edifices they construct implode, it's not the geeks who pick up the tab.'

Read more about quantitative analysts

Our first report about 'quants

So are the quants exploiting the rest of us?

And are they in any way responsible for the current credit squeeze?

We spoke to Professor William Perraudin of the Tanaka Business School at Imperial College London and to Paul Wilmott, founder of the popular quant website wilmott.com.

Dating By Numbers

Algorithms and computing power are making human expertise increasingly redundant - and rightly so, according to Professor Ian Ayres.

His new book Supercrunchers: How Anything Can Be Predicted, is full of examples of human judgement losing out to statistical analysis. He describes how the so-called supercrunchers can predict with greater accuracy than experts which films will be blockbusters, which wine harvests will be vintage years, which prisoners are most likely to re-offend and which dating couples have the most potential for wedded bliss.

The last of these examples gave our reporter Ruth Alexander an idea.

Can data-based decision making and regression equations help Ruth find love?

Some might pin their hopes on a chance encounter or eyes meeting across a crowded room. Ruth decided to try a more evidence-based approach by signing-up to a dating service that claims its secret algorithms can find customers the perfect match. Will she find true love?

Prize Winner

Alex Smith, a 20-year-old student at Birmingham University has just won a $25,000 prize for being the first person in the world to solve a problem which has puzzled mathematicians for over 50 years.

Read more about the mathematical prize

In a 50-page proof Alex has shown that the two, three Turing Machine - a very simple computer - can solve any problem that a super computer can solve.

Presenter Tim Harford spoke to Alex about his achievement and Helen Joyce, former editor of Plus magazine explains the significance of Alex's achievement.

Tim Harford analyses the financial mathematicians known as quants for a second time.

Tim Harford analyses the financial mathematicians known as 'quants' for a second time.

5/8. Tim Hartford of the Financial Times looks at the power of numbers in the news and in everyday life. Producer Innes Bowen

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

6/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Are Food Links to Cancer Overstated?

Hardly a week seems to go by without news about the discovery of a link between cancer and something we eat or drink.

Epidemiologists - the scientists who study factors that influence the occurrence of disease - have spent decades trying to identify some of the causes of cancer.

The most notable success in this quest was the discovery of a strong link between smoking and lung cancer, uncovered by Sir Richard Doll in the early 1950s. Since then, scientists have found links between cancer and some of the food and drink we consume but the links have not been as powerful as the link between smoking and cancer.

Michael Hanlon, science editor of the Daily Mail, thinks that the public is being given a false impression. He argues that the discovery of relatively trivial risk factors is often reported to the public as if it were as important as the link between smoking and tobacco. He joins presenter Tim Harford in the studio to debate the issues with Professor David Shuker, one of the expert panel members advising the World Cancer Research Fund on a recent study.

Professor Shuker spent years at the Open University researching the link between the link between red meat consumption and cancer.

A Dollar a Day

Just over 18% of the world's population lives on less than a dollar (48p) a day. Anyone living on less than a dollar a day is regarded by international development specialists as living in extreme poverty.

A dollar a day' sounds like a simple measure but, as our reporter Mukul Devichand discovers, it can get complicated. He talks to Martin Ravallion, the economist behind the original concept at the World Bank, and to Michael Ward, a former Cambridge dean and previously a principal economist at the World Bank.

Mukul discovers that a dollar does not always mean a dollar.

Reading Scores

Study shows fall in child reading skills.' You might have seen or heard the reports in the last week about an international study called Pirls - the Progress in International Reading and Literacy Study.

Pupils in England and Scotland have apparently been slipping down the Pirls league table. Scotland went from 14th in 2001 to 21st in the latest survey, whilst England went from 3rd to 15th. But a fall in the league tables does not necessarily indicate a decline in absolute standards.

~More Or Less listener Mike Cummins wondered therefore whether the headlines claiming a drop in reading ability were justified.

Encryption

The recent loss of two computer discs containing the personal data of millions of families in receipt of Child Benefit is regarded as a scandal.

The fact that the data was protected only by a password rather than encrypted has compounded the potential risks to privacy.

But how safe is computer encryption? One of the world's top cryptographers, Adi Shamir, has recently identified a flaw in the standard type of cryptography known as public key cryptography,

According to Professor Shamir, a small mathematical error in the system would make it possible for a hacker to break the encryption code. Such an error could occur due to a careless mistake or deliberate action by a computer programmer.

Presenter Tim Harford talks to Paul Kocher, president and chief scientist of the encryption company Cryptography Research in San Francisco about the potential threat that a subtle mathematical error could pose to our information security.

Tim Harford examines the science on lifestyle links to cancer.

6/8. Tim Hartford looks at the power of numbers. Producer InnesBowen

'6/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.'

6/8.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

6/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

7/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Overweight and Pregnant

'Over half of new mothers who die are overweight or obese.'

This was the most widely reported finding of the Confidential Enquiry into Maternal and Child Health (Cemach) published last week. But does this fact on its own, tell us anything useful?

Our reporter Ruth Alexander has been investigating exactly what the scientists know about the risks to pregnant women who are overweight and whether their levels are any higher than women of medically desirable weight.

Size Matters

Our reporter Mukul Devichand found out why buying clothes for the women in his life is so difficult to do well.

The sizing system for women's clothes in Britain is what is known as a customary or folk system. It is based on the practice of tailors over hundreds of years and was finally codified by the British Standards Institution in the 1950s.

But retailers are now coming up with their own definitions of what the traditional size 10, 12, 14 etc are. In mainland Europe, there is a lack of uniformity too. An Italian size 44 is equivalent to a French size 40 and a German size 38. There are plans to standardise sizing across Europe, replacing our current systems with more precise sizes based on six-eight digit codes.

Mukul spoke to Elizabeth Fox who is negotiating on behalf of the British Standards Institute with her European counterparts and to Warwick Cairns, a staunch defender of Imperial measures and author of That's About The Size Of It. But will it make shopping easier?

Do Carers Really Want Recognition Rather Than Cash?

~More Or Less listener and carer Roger Fownes was surprised to hear that a survey by Carers UK had found that the number one concern of carers was recognition by professionals. He had expected money to be of greater concern. A closer look at the survey of results showed Roger's suspicions were justified.

Presenter Tim Harford spoke to Kate Groucutt, policy officer of Carers UK, why her organisation chose not to highlight carers' true priority.

International League tables ... Again

Last week we explained why the fact that England and Scotland had fallen down the Progress in International Literacy Study (Pirls) international literacy league table did not necessarily mean a fall in absolute standards.

But the teachers' respite from criticism was short. Within a few days there was news of another international study, this time published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The results of this survey produced headlines claiming that the maths and reading skills of the average 15 year old in Britain are in sharp decline.

So, is it time to panic?

Tim Harford explores the problems of being an overweight expectant mother.

7/8. Tim Hartford looks at the power of numbers in the news and in everyday life. producer innes Bowen

'7/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.'

7/8.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

7/8. Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Christmas Numbers Quiz

It is the end of term on More or Less so we have invited two celebrity guests to join us for a Christmas numbers quiz.

Loyd Grossman is known to millions as a broadcaster and food critic. Less well known is his love of numbers.

He scored 99% in the American college board maths paper (the US university entrance exam) and he says he prides himself on never resorting to a calculator if he can avoid it.

Bonnie Greer is a playwright and novelist. She is a renowned cultural commentator, judge for numerous literary prizes and a regular on the critics panel of Newsnight Review.

She also lists as one of her hobbies in Who's Who 'reading popular books on theoretical maths especially Prime Number Theory and the Riemann Hypothesis'. Hear how they get on with our quiz.

Monopoly

Find out how to win at Monopoly using probability theory.

Mathematicians Rob Eastaway and John Haigh share their top tips with presenter Tim Harford and help him to beat the rest of the More or Less team in record time.

The Economic Value of Gifts

Are presents and gift vouchers worth on average more or less to their recipients than the giver paid for them?

Our reporter Ruth Alexander finds out why some economists say it is better to give cash whilst others believe it is the thought that counts.

Tim Harford explores how to win at Monopoly using probability theory.

8/8. Tim Hartford looks at the power of numbers in the news and in everyday life. Producer Innes Bowen

Understanding Drug Trials

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) anti-depressants work little better than placebo according to a recent analysis of published and unpublished drugs trials.

The pharmaceutical companies have been accused of publishing the results of those trials that demonstrated the most positive results. But is that really true? And is part of the problem our own inability to understand the statistics?

Lucky Numbers

Our reporter Ruth Alexander looked at why so many of us attach special properties to certain numbers. Mathematician Marcus du Sautoy explains its Pythagorean roots and why we are predisposed to look for numerical patterns.

Plus, was a Treasury minister really correct to say the rich have been getting poorer since Labour came to power? And do the number of people living outnumber the dead?

Tim Harford investigates the effectiveness of anti-depressants.

'New series 1/8. Tim Harford looks at numbers that are in the news, politics and in life generally. Producer Innes Bowen'

Teaching Quality and Peer Influences

Can numbers tell you whether it matters what sort of school your child goes to? News reports have claimed that middle-class children suffer no academic disadvantage if they attend a struggling state school. But is that really true?

Actually, it is a very difficult question to answer. One factor to consider is who your children go to school with. How important is that? Or is it the quality of teaching that really counts?

Researchers in the United States have studied 120,000 children, who were randomly assigned classmates over a period of a decade. Tim Harford finds out the results of the study from one of the world's leading experts on the statistics of peer effects, Professor Caroline Hoxby of Stanford University.

Inflation Figures

How can inflation in Zimbabwe reach 100,000%? As a listener pointed out to us, it seems an unbelievable statistic. We asked an economist living in Zimbabwe to explain.

Dungeons and Dragons

~More Or Less also celebrated the mathematics of Dungeons and Dragons, the role-playing game, which hooked millions of teenagers in the 1980s including our presenter Tim Harford.

Gary Gygax, the game's co-creator, who died recently, did what a hundred worthy educational initiatives had failed to do, and combined imagination, drama and narrative with polyhedral dice, statistical tables and feats of mental arithmetic. Tim unravelled the mysteries of the game, mathematical and otherwise, with recovering Dungeons and Dragons fan Michael Gove MP and the co-founder of Games Workshop, Ian Livingstone.

Tim Harford how Dungeons and Dragons helped promote mental arithmetic.

2/8. Tim Harford of the Financial Times presents the programme that investigates xnumbers in everyday life. Producer Innes Bowen

What Is Your Real Rate of Inflation?

Are we being hoodwinked into thinking that inflation is lower than it really is?British newspapers and supermarkets are starting to publish their own inflation rate checkers and this has got us thinking.

The government's headline measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index, is 2.5% but Asda supermarket has estimated that for their average shopper the cost of living is rising at over 5%.

~More Or Less presenter Tim Harford points out that actually Asda has produced an estimate of how much cash a typical family has left after buying essentials, not a rate of inflation. So the Office for National Statistics is not falling over itself to copy the Asda methodology. Tim chats to economic statistician Michael Ward who points out that the measure of inflation that the prime minister tends to quote - the Consumer Price Index - is much lower than the traditional measure, the Retail Price Index. Paul Dales at Capital Economics tells us that, in reality, it is an impossible mission to find an exact rate of inflation.

Arts and Maths

Oxford mathematician Marcus Du Sautoy has found himself a Media Fellowship Grant to combine the arts of dance, music and sculpture with - wait for it - mathematics.

~More Or Less gets exclusive access to the rehearsal of his latest show, The 19th Step, which is performed in front of Boundstone Community College in Lancing, West Sussex.

Company Valuations

How are companies valued? Revenue? Profits? Growth rate? What about those websites that have millions of free customers, how is their worth valued for example?

Company valuations used to be based on tangible measures like price/earnings ratio and capital valuations. But the valuations of hi-tech companies like Facebook and Yahoo greatly exceed these traditional calculations.

So where do the billion-dollar price tags come from? Tim Harford asks his colleague at the Financial Times, John Gapper, and blogger and venture capitalist Paul Kedrosky.

Immigration

Migrant crime wave a myth' (The Guardian)

Immigrants bring more crime' (Daily Express)

Both these headlines refered to the same story, so has immigration caused a crime wave or not? Our reporter Ruth Alexander tries to find the truth. More or Less asks Richard Garside, the director of the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies at King's College London, and decides that actually neither story is right. There is no statistical evidence to prove either.

Tim Harford examines the different ways of measuring inflation.

3/8. Tim Harford investigates the numbers that are everywhere. Producer Innes Bowen

Has Global Warming Peaked?

The scientific consensus is that the planet is still getting hotter. But the global temperature has not exceeded the 1998 record. So how do we know whether we are in the middle of a blip or if the warming trend has stopped? And how do scientists measure the global temperature anyway?

UK's Pub Capital

Presenter Tim Harford always thought that the UK town with the highest concentration of pubs was St Albans in Hertfordshire. Then someone told him it was Chesterfield in Derbyshire. Tim wondered how many other towns claim to be our pub capital so asked listeners at the end of last week's programme which towns they believed had the most pubs for their size.

Can Hillary Win?

Some of Hillary Clinton's leading backers have said her victory at the recent Pennsylvania primary means she has improved her chances of winning the Democratic nomination for presidency. But two US number-crunchers say the odds of her beating Barack Obama have just gone from slim to zero.

Chadwick Matlin of Slate magazine tells Tim Harford about his online delegate calculator and how it is predicting that Hillary does not stand a chance.

Cereal for a Boy?

Women who eat breakfast cereal around the time of conception are more likely than others to give birth to a boy, according to a new study. The researchers analysed the diet of pregnant women to see if there was any link between food choices and the gender of the child.

But the researchers looked at the correlation between gender and over 100 different foods. So was the link between breakfast cereal and giving birth to a male merely the result random variation?

Our reporter Ruth Alexander has been looking at the statistical significance of the study's findings.

Is the planet still getting hotter?

4/8. Tim Harford investigates the numbers that are everywhere. Producer Innes Bowen

Can Work Cause Health Problems?

It has become the orthodoxy that stress at work can cause heart attacks. The famous Whitehall II study into the working patterns and lifestyles of civil servants found that those who felt they were not in control at work had more health problems. But is this really true?

On the programme this week, Tim Harford discusses the issue with Professor Sir Michael Marmot, the director of the Whitehall II study, and John MacLeod, a GP and an epidemiological researcher at Bristol University, who believes that material deprivation is the key.

We also hear from occupational health physiotherapist, Merran Barber and trainer Joan Keevill who run stress management workshops.

Simpsons' Theory

One of the great joys of The Simpsons is that there are jokes for everyone: slapstick for kids and adult humour for the parents. But have you ever noticed the maths gags? Many Simpsons writers studied mathematics at university and take delight in sneaking maths jokes into the programme.

Jeff Westbrook, a Simpsons writer with a PHD from Princetown, tells us why maths jokes in the Simpsons always add up. And Sarah J. Greenwald of Appalachian State University explains how she uses The Simpsons to teach maths to her more mathphobic students.

Housing Gloom

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) recently calculated the mood of house surveyors. It said that 78.5% more surveyors reported a fall than a rise in house prices in March. The number was widely reported, but how many of us really understood what it meant?

Tim asks its chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn, how they arrived at their headline-grabbing figure and tries to suggest a few alternative ways of presenting the information.

In these uncertain economic times, sentiment surveys, like the RICS housing survey, are snatched upon by the media. But can you really accurately measure mood? More or Less reporter Ruth Alexander speaks to a man who has been investigating this - Dr James Mitchell from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. She also hears the confessions of a sentiment survey insider - economist Ruth Lea.

Tim Harford explores whether stressful jobs cause health problems.

'5/8. Tim Harford investigates the numbers that are everywhere, producer mnes Bowen'

Food Waste

We discard a third of the food we buy, according to the anti-waste organisation WRAP. Can it be true? We looked at the numbers behind the original report from the anti-waste organisation, WRAP, and at the reports of the report.

Internet Polling

When the result of the recent London mayoral elections were announced, Boris Johnson was generous in victory and Ken Livingstone was gracious in defeat. But behind the scenes another battle was still being fought on less cordial terms: between the pollsters.

A relative newcomer, internet pollster YouGov, had correctly predicted the exact percentage of the vote achieved by the two leading candidates. Their more established rivals, who still use telephone polls, had not. A poll by market research company, Ipsos/MORI, even suggested that Ken Livingstone would win.

But head of ICM Research, Nick Sparrow, still believes that telephone polls tend to give more accurate results than internet polls. He says he has tested internet polling and found it to be inaccurate when compared with telephone polls. Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, defended the use of the internet and says it is time to abandon the telephone poll.

Electoral Fraud Rumours

Over 400,000 votes were rejected during the count for the London mayoral election.

400,000 votes spoilt! Was Robert Mugabe in London on Thursday night?' asked someone posting on the BNP's website.

Matt Bright, head of communications at London Elects, explained why nothing fishy was really going on. The truth is that many voters just did not bother to use their second preference.

CCTV

Is CCTV failing to cut crime? A senior police officer says the system is an 'utter fiasco' - solving only 3% of London's street robberies.

~More Or Less reporter Ruth Alexander took a closer look at the evidence. She set out to find how many investigations are solved using CCTV footage nationally, and what evidence there is that cameras prevent crime. She spoke to the Association of Chief Police Officers' spokesperson on CCTV, the Deputy Chief Constable of Cheshire Graeme Gerrard, and also Professor Martin Gill, who has carried out an evaluation of CCTV for the Home Office.

Tim Harford explores whether people in the UK throw away a third of the food they buy.

'6/8 Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally. Producer innes Bowen'

Do Doctors' Strikes Save Lives?

Have you heard that, when doctors strike, the death rate goes down? More or Less investigated a doctors' strike in Israel, where it was reported that the death rate dropped by 39% over a three-month period.

We spoke to Judy Siegel-Itzkovich of the Jerusalem Post, who covered the strike, and tried to explain why the number of deaths dropped. Baroness Julia Neuberger suggested that non-essential surgery is postponed during any strike causing a short-term drop in death rates.

But Dr Richard Smith, the former editor of the British Medical Journal, believes we should not play down the risks of getting treatment and warns that visiting a hospital is more dangerous than bungee jumping!

Epidemics

Is the risk of epidemics after natural disasters being over-hyped? We spoke to Dr John Watson, a medical epidemiologist with the Disease Control in Humanitarian Emergencies Program at the World Health Organisation, who has researched what actually happens after natural disasters.

Totally Random

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the best-selling author of books on the importance of randomness in our lives. He is a staunch critic of economics and wishes not even to breathe the same air as economists. Tim Harford took the risk and interviews him.

Eurovision Song Contest

Claims that Sir Cliff Richard was robbed of first place in the 1968 Eurovision Song Contest because of General Franco's scheming is just the latest story in a long history of grumbling about questionable voting practices. So much so that allegations of vote-rigging have become the subject of intensive academic inquiry.

Sociologists, engineers, mathematicians and even a molecular geneticist have all published papers on the issue. More or Less reporter Ruth Alexander spoke to Dr Derek Gatherer, a scientist who has built up a picture of complex voting blocks by generating thousands of random simulations of the contest results and comparing these to the real scoring in every contest since 1975.

And she interviewed Dr Michel Vellekoop, a mathematician from the Netherlands, who has explored possible innocent explanations for apparent vote-trading relationships by doing an extended statistical analysis of the voting behaviour of individual countries.

Tim Harford investigates the link between a doctors' strike and drops in death rates.

7/8. Tim Harford investigates the numbers that are everywhere. Producer Innes Bowen

Street Value of Drugs

When we hear a new report about the police seizure of a large quantity of illegal drugs, it usually includes an estimate of the 'street value' of the drugs.

Presenter Tim Harford spoke to Greg Poulter, an expert witness and director of the Drugs Education and Research Unit - and Tim meets a couple of ex-dealers to find out how realistic the official street values are.

Does Stress Cause Heart Disease?

A few weeks ago presenter Tim Harford went to quiz Professor Sir Michael Marmot, the director of the famous and highly influential Whitehall II study of health in civil servants, about his claim that a demanding job could cause heart problems.

So we approached statistician Prof Stephen Senn of Glasgow University and Prof Kevin McConway of the Open University to examine the evidence.

The Worst Day for the Stock Market

Forget Friday the 13th, it is this Friday - the 30th May - that you might want note as a day to avoid buying shares on the London Stock Market.

Presenter Tim Harford spoke to Stephen Eckett, author of The UK Stock Market Almanac 2008, to find out about the worst day, week, month and six month period in which to sell shares.

Tim Harford explores how the police evaluate the street value of drugs.

Tim Harford explores how the police evaluate the 'street value' of drugs.

8/8. Tim Harford investigates the numbers that are everywhere. Producer Innes Bowen

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere and explores the pseudoscience behind some of the world's best-selling business success books.

Sexual or Statistical Abuse?

Between 5 and 10% of girls suffer the most serious forms of sexual abuse, according to reports based on a paper published this week in The Lancet. These are shocking figures, but are they true? We investigate whether the statistics really support the claims of a hidden epidemic.

Maths and the Credit Crunch

Banks and hedge funds rely on highly paid mathematicians and economists known as 'quants' to evaluate risk. Why didn't they see the credit crunch coming?

Paul Wilmott is a lecturer in financial mathematics and runs the profession's most popular website. He is a fan of quantitative finance - but he thinks that its misuse has played a part in creating the current banking crisis. It is all to do with a tendency for some mathematicians to get fixated on the numbers, whilst failing to think about the big picture.

VAT Cut

Many people have dismissed the recent reduction in the VAT rate from 17.5% to 15% as derisory. 'A difference of £2.50 in a £100 is hardly light at the end of the tunnel,' was the typical complaint. We explain why the news is worse than that.

Britain's Most Admired Companies

This week Management Today magazine announced that the drinks manufacturer Diageo is Britain's Most Admired Company.

The organisers claim the awards 'offer a unique insight into the components of corporate reputation, by recognising key factors critical to business success.

All round brilliance or the halo effect? But is the survey based on flawed data?

Phil Rosenzweig, a professor at leading business school IMD in Geneva, claims the academics who spend months each year compiling the 'Most Admired' league tables are failing to take into account 'the halo effect'.

This is our tendency to perceive that a company which is doing wellfinancially is performing well in pretty much every field - from product quality and innovation through to the ability to attract and retain top talent.

According to Prof Rosenzweig, it is a phenomenon that is rife in the world of popular management science and in many of the leading business success books.

Is Fishing More Dangerous Than Boxing?

Boxers often defend their sport against those who would like to ban it by stating that it is less dangerous than fishing. Listener Su Heggerty asked us to investigate whether the boxers' claim is really true.

Tim Harford explores whether 10% of girls suffer the most serious form of abuse.

'rNew series 1/8. Tim Harford of the Financial Times investigates numbers that are everywhere: in politics, the news and in daily life. This week, he looks at the pseudoscience behind some of the world's best-selling business success books. Producer Innes Bowen Repeated on Sunday at 8pm'

'Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.'

2/8 Tim Harford of the Financial Times presents the series that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally.

Producer Innes Bowen Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

Poisonous Pork?

Supermarkets withdrew Irish pork from their shelves this week following the discovery that meat from some farms had up to 200 times more dioxins than the recognised safe limit.

Vast quantities of food have had to be destroyed, up to 100,000 Irish pigs are to be culled and jobs in the Irish food industry have already been lost. Are these costs worth paying when weighed against the risks of eating what the tabloids have labelled 'poisonous pork' contaminated with 'cancer causing chemicals'?

Chris Elliott, Professor of Food Safety at Queen's University Belfast and Simon Wessely, a professor of psychiatry and specialist in communication of risk help presenter Tim Harford weigh up whether or not he should tuck into a potentially contaminated Irish sausage sandwich.

Retail Sales

There has been yet more bad news about the economy. The British Retail Consortium announced that 'like for like sales' were down 2.6% on this time last year. BBC Business Correspondent Nils Blythe explains why things are not as bad for the retailers as they look.

Street Numbers

Our reporter Chris Bowlby unravels the mysteries of the UK's house numbering systems. He discovers why some streets are numbered odds on one side and even on the other; why some local authorities have banned the use of the number 13; and he visits Bewdley in Worcestershire, home to the most confusingly numbered street in Britain.

LIBOR

The London Interbank Offered Rate - LIBOR - has been dubbed the financial world's most important number. Published each day in the UK, it is the rate at which the banks lend to each other and it influences over $150 trillion (£100 trillion) of funds worldwide.

Tim Harford takes a behind-the-scenes look at how LIBOR is set. The Libor number is compiled by putting together the estimates of the cost of borrowing from at least eight banks, discarding the highest and lowest of the sample to leave an average rate which then becomes the daily 'Libor Fix'.

But the figure's validity is being questioned, with critics dubbing it 'the rate at which banks won't lend'. Presenter Tim Harford is granted exclusive access to the operations centre where the daily rate is compiled.

Tim Harford wonders whether Irish sausages really are too toxic to eat?

2/8 Tim Harford of the Financial Times presents the series that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally.

Producer Innes Bowen Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

'3/8. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the show which investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally. Producer Innes Bowen Repeated on Sunday at 8pm'

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Strictly Voting Fiasco

Saturday's edition of Strictly Come Dancing was thrown into chaos. The TV show's producers realised that it was mathematically impossible for a public telephone vote to influence the contest.

This came after the marks the studio judges awarded put two of the contestants in joint first place. The BBC executive in charge of the programme put the problem down to 'exceptional circumstances'.

~More Or Less listener Dirk Nachbar disagrees. From his hospital bed, he ran a computer simulation, based on past scores, and concluded that the chance of such a problem was 1 in 8.

Our reporter, former computer programmer Oliver Hawkins, has run his own simulation and come up with a similar result. Watch him explain it.

More Credit Crunch Maths

Financial mathematics guru Paul Wilmott continues with his More or Less series explaining how mathematical blunders contributed to the credit crunch.

This week, he talks us through the maths error that might have contributed to the mispricing of financial derivatives and thus to the travails of the banks, the credit crunch, and the recession.

Imperial Measures

Tim Harford talks pounds and kilos with Derek Pollard. Pints, miles, pounds and inches. They are fiendishly complicated and politicians have tried to ban their use, but for some reason imperial measures have proved impossible to kill off.

This week, the European Parliament voted to allow UK consumers to use both metric and imperial measures. It marks the end of a long campaign to make Britain fully metric.

Warwick Cairns, author of About the Size of It explains the appeal of imperial whilst Derek Pollard, Secretary of the Metric Association vows to carry on the fight for a 'single rational system'.

Childhood Obesity

The Chief Medical Officer for England, Sir Liam Donaldson, this week reiterated his appeal for urgent action on childhood obesity, claiming in an online article for BBC News that 'the obesity epidemic' is a national crisis and that to do nothing was not an option.

According to the Health Survey for England, a quarter of 5 year olds are obese or overweight. Simon Cox, presenter of our sister programme The Investigation explains why the figures exaggerate the extent of the problem.

Knife-Crime Statistics

Fewer teenagers are being wounded by knives' claimed a Home Office press release issued last week. How accurate are the latest government figures on knife crime?

Figures in the document purported to show that the government's Tackling Knives Action Plan had been a great success. The head of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir Michael Scholar, disagreed.

On Friday he condemned the government for releasing 'unchecked' and 'selective' numbers against the advice of professional statisticians. So why might an apparent fall crime be not all it seems? It could be something to do with a concept called 'regression to the mean'.

Tim Harford explores the voting system of Strictly Come Dancing.

'3/8. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the show which investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally. Producer Innes Bowen Repeated on Sunday at 8pm'

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

He is joined by two guests who share his love of numbers, former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq and comedian Dave Gorman.

Tim Harford is joined by two guests who share his love of numbers, former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq and comedian Dave Gorman

Tim Harford is joined by two guests who share his love of numbers, former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq and comedian Dave Gorman.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life. He is joined by two guests who share his love of numbers, former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq and comedian Dave Gorman.

4/8. Presenter Tim Harford is joined by former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq and comedian Dave Gorman , both of whom share his passion for numbers.

Producer innes Bowen Rptd on Sun 28 Dec at 8.30pm

TIM HARFORD is joined by former Blue Peter presenter KONNIE HUQ and comedian DAVE GORMAN.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

He is joined by two guests who share his love of numbers, former Blue Peter presenter KONNIE HUQ and comedian DAVE GORMAN.

TIM HARFORD is joined by two guests who share his love of numbers, former Blue Peter presenter KONNIE HUQ and comedian DAVE GORMAN

Tim Harford is joined by two guests who share his love of numbers, former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq and comedian Dave Gorman.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life. He is joined by two guests who share his love of numbers, former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq and comedian Dave Gorman.

Tim Harford is joined by two guests who share his love of numbers, former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq and comedian Dave Gorman. He gives his celebrity guests a second chance at numerical success with the More or Less Christmas numbers quiz.

Divorce at Christmas

Do more couples really divorce during the Christmas period? The prediction that up to 3.6 million people will consult a solicitor about divorce in the New Year has become a staple of the Christmas news stories. But there are fewer than 12 million married couples in the UK, so can this figure be correct? Chris Bowlby investigates.

4/8. Presenter Tim Harford is joined by former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq and comedian Dave Gorman , both of whom share his passion for numbers.

Producer innes Bowen Rptd on Sun 28 Dec at 8.30pm

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

'5/8. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford investigates numbers. Producer Innes Bowen Repeated Sunday at 8.30pm'

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Forecasting the Future

2008 contained so many surprises that any self-respecting forecaster might want to take care before venturing a confident prognostication. So are expert forecasts ever any good?

Tim speaks to Philip Tetlock, a professor of psychology in the University of California, Berkeley. Professional forecasters, according to Professor Tetlock, are only marginally better than monkeys at predicting the future.

More Credit Crunch Maths

Financial mathematics guru Paul Wilmott continues with his series explaining how mathematical blunders contributed to the credit crunch. Financial traders are taught that the way to maximise profit and minimise risk is to diversify.

So why did so many end up doing the same trades? The answer, according to Paul, might lie in the maths of the bonus system.

The Lake Wobegon Effect

Why do most parents think their child is in the top 20% for academic ability? Perhaps it is the same reason that most drivers think they are in the top 20% for safety.

Ruth Alexander investigates the power of the 'above average effect', our tendency to overestimate our relative performance when it comes to desirable qualities and skills.

It is also known as the Lake Wobegon effect after the fictional community 'where all the women are strong, all the men are good looking and all the children are above average'.

What is an Average Wage?

Listener Bill MacDonald has heard the average wage in the UK described as around £24,000.

He thought that seemed a bit high and asked us to find out how it is calculated and whether it fairly reflects typical earnings.

Our reporter Oliver Hawkins explains the importance of selecting the most appropriate measure of the average.

Tim Harford questions the ability of professional forecasters at predicting the future.

'5/8. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford investigates numbers. Producer Innes Bowen Repeated Sunday at 8.30pm'

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

6/8. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally.

Producer Innes Bowen Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Sex Workers

Something like 80% of women in prostitution are controlled by their drug dealer, or their pimp or their trafficker,' according to former Home Office minister Fiona MacTaggart MP.

The idea that women who work in prostitution are largely in forced labour situations is one of the justifications behind a government proposal to introduce a strict liability offence of paying for sex with a woman who has been trafficked or is under the control of a pimp or her drug dealer.

It will be no defence for an accused man to say that he didn't realise that the woman had been trafficked or was 'controlled for another person's gain'. Men accused of this crime will be charged with rape on the basis that the woman can't be deemed to have consented.

Given the underground nature of prostitution, how do researchers know the proportion of women who are controlled by others? Presenter Tim Harford finds out how the research is done and the reliability of the statistics.

Interviewees include Professor Julia O'Connell-Davidson of Nottingham University, Hilary Kinnell of the UK Network of Sex Work Projects and Fiona MacTaggart MP.

Babylonian Numbers

The ancient civilization is famed for the Tower of Babel, the Hanging Gardens and Belshazzar's Feast - but also for the great advances it made in mathematics.

The ability to write large numbers, the way we measure time, the number of degrees in a circle and the 7 day week - we apparently owe much to Babylonian mathematics.

To find out more, Tim Harford visits the British Museum's Babylon exhibition and talks to Eleanor Robson of Cambridge University's Department of History and Philosophy of Science.

Credit Crunch Maths: Journalism

Gillian Tett of the Financial Times explains the moment she realised that nine tenths of financial activity was being largely ignored by journalists, politicians and regulators.

Until recently, media coverage of the financial markets was mainly limited to equities and mergers and acquisitions. But the credit markets, derivative markets and the market in loans repackaged into bonds were worth far more.

Tim Harford explores how many prostitutes in the UK are controlled by drug dealers?

6/8. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally.

Producer Innes Bowen Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

7/8. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally.

Producer Innes Bowen Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

Tim Harford is joined by Vince Cable MP, Charles Clarke MP and the Spectator's political editor Fraser Nelson to discuss the use and abuse of numbers in politics.

Their political qualifications speak for themselves, of course, but what about their knowledge of numbers?

Vince Cable MP, the Chief Treasury Spokesman for the Liberal Democrats, used to teach economics at Glasgow University and later went on to become the Chief Economist at Shell.

Maths runs in the family for former Secretary of State for education and Home Secretary Charles Clarke MP, whose father was a mathematician and grandfather a maths teacher.

Lastly, self-confessed maths geek and political editor of Spectator magazine Fraser Nelson loves picking apart Gordon Brown's figures and had his biggest journalistic scoop in exposing the true figure of life expectancy of Glasgow.

But how does an interest in numbers affect their work and how do they view their use in politics and policy?

To find out, Tim Harford discusses New Labour's rallying cry of 'What works', and asks what role research and evidence should have in Government policy making.

Tim Harford by politicians to discuss the use and abuse of numbers in politics.

7/8. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally.

Producer Innes Bowen Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

8/8 Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally.

Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

Fertility Figures

The Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority has the world's largest database on artificial insemination. But how does the HFEA make all this information useful to anxious couples considering having IVF treatment?

To find out Tim Harford speaks to Lisa Jardine, chair of the HFEA and Helen Joyce the education correspondent for the Economist and mathematician, who has had IVF treatment herself.

Credit Crunch Maths

How did the derivatives market grow to the value of $150 trillion?

Continuing with our credit crunch series , Paul Wilmott returns to explain how the value of the global derivatives market could possibly be three times that of the world economy - a figure amounting to $150 trillion.

Statistical Significance

Professor Steve Ziliak, economist and co-author of 'The Cult of Statistical Significance' discusses the mathematical tool for separating random from real effects.

He explains to us why the misunderstanding of statistical significance has lead to bad government policy making and how one particularly famous brewery employed the technique to improve the pints we enjoy today.

Recession

How exactly is a recession defined?

Its official - the UK is in recession, defined by the second consecutive quarter of negative growth that was announced today.

But why do we define recession this way and how is negative growth calculated? To find out we speak to Martin Weale, director of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research.

Tim Harford asks how do you make statistics useful to those seeking IVF treatment?

8/8 Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally.

Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

He investigates the link between cancer and drinking, tests CHARLES CLARKE's maths and finds out why drowning cats can help explain the credit crunch.

TIM HARFORD investigates the link between cancer and drinking.

We investigate the numbers behind the drug legalisation debate, test a former Home Secretary's maths and find out why drowning cats can help explain the credit crunch.

Synopsis

Synopsis

New series 1/6. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally.

Producer Innes Bowen Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

Tim Harford investigates the numbers behind the drug legalisation debate.

Tim Harford examines how the arithmetic behind sustainable energy adds up.

'2/6. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates numbers that are everywhere. Editor Richard Vadon Repeated on Sunday at 8pm'

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

3/6. Tim Harford gets to the truth behind the statistics in the headlines.

Series producer Richard Knight Rptd on Sunday at 8pm

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

Tim Harford challenges a much-quoted statistic on domestic violence.

5/6. Tim Harford explains the numbers that surround us and gets to the truth behind the statistics in the headlines. Series editor Richard Knight Repeated on Sun at 8pm

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

tim harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

6/6. Tim Harford of the Financial Times presents the programme that investigates numbers in everyday life.

Series producer Richard Knight Rptd on Sunday at 8pm

'New series. 1/6. Tim Harford investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally. Producer Richard Knight Repeated on Sunday at 8pm'

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

'2/6. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers in the news, in politics and in life generally. Producer Richard Knight Rptd on Sunday at 8pm'

An Open University co-production for BBC Radio 4.

TIM HARFORD and the team test the reliability of swine flu data.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

3/6 Tim Harford looks at numbers in the news. Producer Richard Knight Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

Is Britain's record on prosecuting rape is as bad as headlines suggest?

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

4/6. Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates numbers.

Producer Richard Knight Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

Investigating estimates of the number of people who illegally share files on the internet.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

5/6. Tim Harford investigates the numbers that are everywhere. Producer Richard Knight Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere.

TIM HARFORD and the More or Less team examine reports that the world will cool over the next two decades, before global warming resumes.

They also examine a claim that beautiful people have more daughters, and use maths to decode a Beatles musical mystery.

TIM HARFORD examines reports that the world will cool over the next two decades.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team examine reports that the world will cool over the next two decades, before global warming resumes. They also examine a claim that beautiful people have more daughters, and use maths to decode a Beatles musical mystery.

6/6. Author, economist and Financial Times journalist Tim Harford presents the programme that investigates the numbers that are everywhere - in the news, in politics and in life generally.

Producer Richard Knight Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers in the news.

TIM HARFORD and the More or Less team ask if claims made about energy efficient lightbulbs are true and if economies can grow forever.

And they meet one of their greatest heroes: Sesame Street's Count von Count.

TIM HARFORD and the team ask if claims made about energy efficient lightbulbs are true.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team ask if claims made about energy efficient lightbulbs are true and if economies can grow forever. And they meet one of their greatest heroes: Sesame Street's Count von Count.

New series. 1/6. Politicians, journalists and pressure groups beware! Tim Harford and the team are back surveying the numerical landscape, ready to pounce on rogue polls, bogus statistics and dodgy data.

Producer Richard Knight Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

Tim Harford presents the magazine which looks at numbers in the news.

2/6. Tim Harford and the team investigate more numbers in the news. Producer Richard Knight Repeated on Sunday at 8pm

Who really pays most tax and why Christmas shopping is an orgy of 'value destruction'.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

'4/6. Tim Harford and the team answer questions put to them by Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt , the authors of Freakonomics and Superfreakonomics, such as whether incentives are given to NHS dentists to make their patients' teeth worse. Producer Richard Knight Repeated on Sunday at 8pm'

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers in the news.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers in the news.

TIM HARFORD and the team ask if the electoral system is biased in favour of Labour.

TIM HARFORD and the team ask if the electoral system is biased in favour of Labour, as some Conservatives claim, and why Wales is so frequently used as a unit of measurement.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which looks at numbers everywhere, in the news, in politics and in life.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

TIM HARFORD and the team return with the first in a new series of More or Less, explaining numbers in the news, looking out for misused statistics and using maths to explore the world around us.

The team also investigate whether Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratios (or HSMRs) - expected deaths to observed deaths - can be unhelpful, ask who stands to lose from the scrapping of Child Trust Funds and remember the great mathematician, Martin Gardner.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team explain the numbers in the news, look out for misused statistics and use maths to explore the world around us.

Which would win in a fight - a shark or a toaster? Tim Harford finds out in this week's More or Less. The team also investigate whether Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratios (or HSMRs) - expected deaths to observed deaths - can be unhelpful, ask who stands to lose from the scrapping of Child Trust Funds and remember the great mathematician, Martin Gardner.

The team also investigate whether Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratios (or HSMRs) - expected deaths to observed deaths - can be unhelpful, ask who stands to lose from the scrapping of Child Trust Funds and remember the great mathematician, Martin Gardner.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

Which would win in a fight - a shark or a toaster? Tim Harford finds out in this week's More or Less. The team also investigate whether Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratios (or HSMRs) - expected deaths to observed deaths - can be unhelpful, ask who stands to lose from the scrapping of Child Trust Funds and remember the great mathematician, Martin Gardner.

Tim Harford presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

TIM HARFORD and the More or Less team explain the numbers behind the news.

TIM HARFORD and the More or Less team explain numbers in the news, look out for misused statistics and use maths to explore the world around us.

TIM HARFORD presents the magazine which explains the numbers behind the news.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team tackle the budget.

Magazine show investigating the ways we use numbers, statistics and measurements.

Tim Harford and the team investigate how maths is taught in primary schools.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team investigate the numbers around us. This week as the Pope visits Britain Tim examines contested estimates of the number of Catholics who attend mass. He also finds out whether his trousers are flattering him. Matt Parker shares his three-minute guide to risk and we try to measure how age and sex affect sporting ability.

How many Catholics go to mass? Are your trousers flattering you? And understanding risk.

Who earns more: private or public employees? We examine new headline-grabbing Office for National Statistics figures.

As the Pope visits Britain, we investigate contested estimates of the number of Catholics who attend mass.

Are your trousers flattering you? We find out whether high street chains are guilty of 'vanity-sizing'.

And More or Less sends its own runners to the Great North Run, in an attempt to measure how age and sex affect sporting ability.

Who earns more: private or public employees? And are your trousers flattering you?

In this week's programme:

The Chancellor recently said that while he would continue to protect deserving benefit claimants, people who claimed benefits 'as a lifestyle choice' would have to stop because the money would no longer be there.

What does the evidence tell us about how many people fall into that category - and how incentives work in the welfare system?

After spotting a new unit of measurement - the Prime Minister's salary (£142,500) - we create our Prime Minister Index, allowing us to calculate any individual's place on the index (or, as we like to say, work out their PMI).

The median salary in Britain is £25,800, so that's a PMI of 0.2, for example.

If you jump to a PMI of 10,000, you get to the hedge fund manager John Paulson on £1.4 billion.

Last week the British Trust for Ornithology published the results of its 40th annual garden bird-feeding survey - revealing huge falls in the numbers of some species.

Blue tits down 42% over 40 years.

House sparrows down 70%.

Song thrushes down 75%.

Are cats to blame?

Last week we were examined how to adjust for age and sex to create a level playing field for two runners - a 28-year-old woman, and a 52-year-old man.

Our very own 28-year-old woman and 52-year-old man entered the Great North Run half marathon to test our calculations.

This week, we bring you the results.

This week: welfare numbers, pay revisited and how many birds do cats kill?

The Chancellor recently said that while he would continue to protect deserving benefit claimants, people who claimed benefits as a lifestyle choice would have to stop because the money would no longer be there. What does the evidence tell us about how many people fall into that category - and how incentives work in the welfare system?

The median salary in Britain is £25,800, so that's a PMI of 0.2, for example. If you jump to a PMI of 10,000, you get to the hedge fund manager John Paulson on £1.4 billion.

Last week the British Trust for Ornithology published the results of its 40th annual garden bird-feeding survey - revealing huge falls in the numbers of some species. Blue tits down 42% over 40 years. House sparrows down 70%. Song thrushes down 75%. Are cats to blame?

Last week we were examined how to adjust for age and sex to create a level playing field for two runners - a 28-year-old woman, and a 52-year-old man. Our very own 28-year-old woman and 52-year-old man entered the Great North Run half marathon to test our calculations. This week, we bring you the results.

The Chancellor recently said that while he would continue to protect deserving benefit claimants, people who claimed benefits 'as a lifestyle choice' would have to stop because the money would no longer be there. What does the evidence tell us about how many people fall into that category - and how incentives work in the welfare system?

The Chancellor recently said that while he would continue to protect deserving benefit claimants, people who claimed benefits as a lifestyle choice would have to stop because the money would no longer be there.

The Chancellor recently said that while he would continue to protect deserving benefit claimants, people who claimed benefits as a lifestyle choice would have to stop because the money would no longer be there. What does the evidence tell us about how many people fall into that category - and how incentives work in the welfare system?

Tim Harford and the More or Less team examine more numbers in the news.

Claiming benefits has been described by the Chancellor as - for some - a 'lifestyle choice'. What does the evidence tell us about how incentives work in the welfare system?;

The numbers of some of Britain's best-loved birds are declining. Fast. Many think cats are to blame. Are they right?;

Why the Prime Minister's salary has become a convenient unit of measurement;

And we bring you the results of our mathematical attempt to level the playing field at this year's Great North Run half marathon.

We examine official statistics on sexual identity and the micromort measure of risk.

Gay Britain

According to recent Office for National Statistics figures the UK has fewer gay, lesbian and bisexual people living in it than we thought. But gay rights groups have questioned the number. Why is it so much lower than previous estimates? More or Less investigates.

Paying for bankers' mistakes

The Irish Central Bank has released an estimate of the total cost of bailing out its banking sector: about 45bn euros, or £39bn. We ask a favourite More or Less question: is that really a big number?

Needless' deaths?

More than 70 children may have died needlessly after heart surgery' claimed a recent Sunday Telegraph headline. But the story was based on research led by David Spiegelhalter, a medical statistician and no stranger to More or Less, who thinks the reporter misunderstood his numbers.

The PM 's pay

Last week we noted that the prime minister's salary has become a convenient benchmark against which other public sector workers' pay is measured. But you wanted us to go further and work out the PM's total reward. So we have.

We examine the micromort, a cheeky little unit of risk, with Matt Parker, the 'stand up mathematician'. Matt's show at the Edinburgh Fringe was a raging success (which is what we'd expect of a show about maths).

Police numbers

An HMIC report in July claimed that only 11% of police officers are available to respond to incidents at any one time. Since then the number - generally summarised as 1 in 10 - has been widely quoted. The implication, it seems, is that while one officer is fighting crime, the other 9 are holed up in the police station eating donuts or form-filling. But with the help of listener Tim Treffry we examine whether that's really the conclusion we should draw.

We look at the numbers behind the increase in the cap on undergraduate tuition fees in England. Are the changes fair and progressive? Are they dropping future students into a deep hole of debt? Or are they both?

Do traffic lights do more harm than good? That's the suspicion of one listener with a professional interest - he's a London bus driver. As ever, we look for the evidence.

Wikileaks revealed last week that Britain and the US are concerned about the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. And this week Iran claimed that it is now self-sufficient in the production of uranium - a necessary material for any aspiring nuclear nation. But how worried should we be? The physicist Richard A Muller gives us the numbers.

David Lammy - a Labour MP who was Minister of State for Innovation, Universities and Skills in the last government - published an article in the Guardian on this week in which he included a statistic that caught everyone's imagination: 'Just one British black Caribbean student was admitted to Oxford last year,' he wrote. We check his sums.

Those of you who followed the World Cup might recall Paul the Octopus, who alerted us all to the miraculous and potentially world-transforming technology of using zoo animals to forecast the results of sporting contests. Paul sadly passed away in October but we remained curious about the phenomenon. So we asked Jack, a Newcastle-based monkey, to forecast the results of the Ashes.

Tim Harford and the team return for a new series, exploring the numbers in the news.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team offer another numbers-eye view of the news.

This week:

Local government funding: why everything depends on Wokingham.

Inflation: who came up with the 1-3% target? Why? And why do we keep missing it?

Age-adjusted earnings: how much should you be earning if you're a 43-year-old man called David?

Correlation or causation: Are you really more likely to give birth if you live near a mobile phone mast?

And, finally, oracular Jack - our magic monkey - with his latest Ashes predictions.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team explain the numbers in the news.

Featuring interviews with: Andrew Haldane from the Bank of England; SIMON JOHNSON, the former chief economist of the IMF; GILLIAN TETT, the author of Fool's Gold; the economist John Kay; the philosopher and consultant Jamie Whyte; and Angela Knight from the British Bankers' Association.

Starring the cast of the Giant Olive Theatre Company (and ROBERT PESTON).

TIM HARFORD narrates 'A More or Less Christmas Carol'.

TIM HARFORD narrates A More or Less Christmas Carol in which Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by the ghosts of banking past, present and future.

Featuring interviews with: Andrew Haldane from the Bank of England; Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the IMF; Gillian Tett, the author of Fool's Gold; the economist John Kay; the philosopher and consultant Jamie Whyte; and Angela Knight from the British Bankers' Association. Starring the cast of the Giant Olive Theatre Company (and Robert Peston).

Tim Harford narrates A More or Less Christmas Carol in which Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by the ghosts of banking past, present and future.

Featuring interviews with: Andrew Haldane from the Bank of England; Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the IMF; the MIT economist Andrew Lo; Gillian Tett, the author of Fool's Gold; the economist John Kay; the philosopher and consultant Jamie Whyte; and Angela Knight from the British Bankers' Association. Starring the cast of the Giant Olive Theatre Company (and Robert Peston).

Contributors include Ben Goldcare, ROBERT PESTON, the National Statistician and the Swedish statistical guru Hans Rosling.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team explore 2010 in numbers. Contributors include Ben Goldcare, Robert Peston, the National Statistician and the Swedish statistical guru Hans Rosling.

TIM HARFORD and the More or Less team look at tax, train fares and the truth about psychic animals.

TIM HARFORD looks at tax, train fares and the truth about psychic animals.

Contraception deception

This week much of the media reported that nearly 600 women have fallen pregnant despite using a popular contraceptive implant. But no-one thought to include the numbers which would make sense of the story - how many women use the implant, and how does its failure rate compare to that of other contraceptives? More or Less corrects some seriously sloppy reporting.

Death yodel

Archers fans were shocked to hear Nigel Pargeter fall to his death from the roof of Lower Loxley Hall this week. But what does the length of Nigel's 'death yodel' tell us about the height of Lower Loxley?

VAT spat

~More Or Less examines the heated claims and counter claims made about this week's rise in VAT from 17.5% to 20%. Is it progressive? Will it cost more jobs than a rise in National Insurance would have done? And does the International Monetary Fund really support the Chancellor's stance?

Proofiness

You will have noticed that we think numbers can all-too-easily be used to confuse, or to mislead. We aren't the only ones who think so. Charles Seife is a professor of journalism at New York University and author of a new book - Proofiness - which exposes what he describes as 'the dark arts of mathematical deception'.

Game over, Jack

England are bringing home the Ashes. But here on More or Less, our celebrations are tempered by a twinge of sadness. Earlier in the series we asked a monkey - Jack - to predict the outcome of each of the Ashes tests. We did so in honour of Paul the octopus who correctly predicted the outcomes of eight football World Cup matches in the summer. Unfortunately, Jack didn't do so well. Finally, we reveal what we've been up to.

~More Or Less examines this week's claims and counter-claims about VAT.

In More or Less this week:

Street grooming

The former Justice Secretary Jack Straw says there is a specific problem with Pakistani men 'street grooming' under-age white girls. Are there any statistics to support his claim?

Loxleygate

Last week we calculated the height of Lower Loxley Hall - the ancestral home of the late Nigel Pargetter in The Archers - by timing the length of Nigel's scream as he plunged from its roof. But many of you disputed our findings. So this week we ask Graham Seed, the actor who played Nigel Pargetter, what really happened.

Bank tax

How much tax do banks pay? Lord Jones, the former trade minister, says 20% (a little less than the 24% he claimed in May). We think the true amount is closer to 12%.

Meanwhile in the House of Commons, David Cameron and Ed Miliband have been slugging it out over plans for new bank taxes. We check both their workings out.

Debt or deficit

Has the union Unite failed to grasp the difference?

Five guys named Mohammed

And why, despite repeated claims to the contrary, Mohammed is not (yet) the most popular boy's name in Britain.

Producer: Richard Knight.

Looking behind the numbers in the news. Street grooming, bank taxes and Loxleygate.

Note: The 21 January 2011 edition of More or Less was truncated. This copy reflects the content of the full programme broadcast on 23 January 2011.

Health check

The Health Secretary says you're twice as likely to die from heart disease in the UK than in France. And World Health Organisation figures support his claim. But do those numbers tell the whole story?

George Osborne's credit card

The Chancellor George Osborne said this week that he's working hard to 'pay off the nation's credit card'. Presumably Mr Osborne is alluding to his plans for reducing the deficit. But that's not the same as paying off debt. In fact, as we explain, he's merely trying to reduce the rate at which the nation's credit card bill is growing.

The unemployment riddle

Journalists reported this week that unemployment has gone up by 49,000 to 2.5 million people, over the three months to November, but the unemployment rate had remained unchanged at 7.9%. More or Less solves the riddle.

Words and numbers

Tim Harford, Rachel Riley and Alex Bellos discuss their favourite maths books. Rachel chose Michio Kaku's Physics of the Impossible, Alex chose Oliver Byrne's version of Euclid's Elements and Tim chose Douglas Hofstader's Godel Escher Bach.

Blue Monday

The Blue Monday formula, which claims to identify the most depressing day of the year, and which first infected the British media in 2005, strikes again.

Producer: Richard Knight.

Do other European countries enjoy better healthcare, as the Government suggests?

TIM HARFORD returns with a new series, explaining the numbers behind the news.

Embarrassingly small' cuts?

The Coalition Government's planned spending cuts have been described as 'savage' by the TUC's Brendan Barber. But they have also been described by Fraser Nelson of The Spectator as 'embarrassingly small'. Who's right?

The Other Census

The census is all well and good. It will tell us how many we are, where we live, with whom, and more. Good, hard facts. But, we wondered, could we yield some surprising data by asking less obvious questions? Follow the link below to complete The Other Census.

The cost of intervention

Libya seems to be in full-fledged civil war and the UK is part of an international coalition intervening in the conflict. Last week the Chancellor addressed what all this might cost. But how does he know?

Strawberry Fields... forever?

The maths behind the most mysterious edit in music.

Producer: Richard Knight.

Youth unemployment

We are frequently told that young people have never had it so bad. They can't get on the housing ladder and it's increasingly difficult to get a job. New unemployment statistics will be published next week. But will they tell the whole story?

Trumptonshire's deficit

Should the Government cut spending and raise taxes in order to cut the deficit or will doing so be counterproductive? It is, of course, the question of the moment. It's a debate about what economists call the 'fiscal multiplier'. But what is a fiscal multiplier? And can we measure it? Let's take an example: Trumptonshire.

Social immobility?

A shocking graph showing how the education system allows untalented rich kids to overtake talented poor kids was used by the Government this week to demonstrate Britain's lack of social mobility. But some argue the graph is distorted by one of the oldest statistical problems of all.

Producer: Richard Knight.

Tim Harford and the team look at more numbers in the news.

In this programme we examine the other side of the equation: how much will the changes cost the taxpayer? Could the Government be on the hook for more than it thinks?

The US Supreme Court recently issued a judgement on what might seem an unlikely subject: the uses and abuses of statistical significance testing.

We explain why it matters.

It seems not a week goes by without a politician claiming to be progressive - or claiming that the other guy to be regressive.

Everyone seems to assume that progressivity in the tax system is self-evidently a good thing.

But is that always true?

This week we were told that inflation has fallen by all measures but with the biggest drop shown in the Consumer Prices Index.

What exactly is the difference between CPI and RPI? It's not - as most journalists report - all about housing costs.

Producer: Richard Knight.

In the last series we looked at what changes to the tuition fee system in England will cost students. In this programme we examine the other side of the equation: how much will the changes cost the taxpayer? Could the Government be on the hook for more than it thinks?

The US Supreme Court recently issued a judgement on what might seem an unlikely subject: the uses and abuses of statistical significance testing. We explain why it matters.

It seems not a week goes by without a politician claiming to be progressive - or claiming that the other guy is regressive. Everyone seems to assume that progressivity in the tax system is self-evidently a good thing. But is that always true?

This week we were told that inflation has fallen by all measures but with the biggest drop shown in the Consumer Prices Index. What exactly is the difference between CPI and RPI? It's not - as most journalists report - all about housing costs.

Tim Harford and the team on tuition fees and drugs testing.

In this week's More or Less:

How well are British schoolchildren doing compared to their international peer group? It's an important question. And there's a way of answering it, using a set of tests called 'PISA', the programme for international student assessment. But there are doubts about the validity of the PISA method, and the way the numbers are used by politicians. More or Less investigates.Producer: Richard Knight.

Tim Harford and team look at GDP, school standards and the results of 'The Other Census'.

Note: The 29 April 2011 edition of More or Less is truncated. This copy reflects the content of the full programme broadcast on 1 May 2011.

This week we present a cornucopia of wedding-related numbers, including:

Why we predict a jump in the number of weddings next year (hint: it will have nothing to do with the Royal Wedding);

How much does the average British wedding cost (less than you might think);

Can we know how many people watched the Royal Wedding (probably not);

Do married men earn more? (Yes, according to 140 years of baseball stats.)

Also in this week's programme: we explain the alternative vote electoral system, using limericks and puddings.

A cornucopia of wedding-related numbers, and AV explained.

In this week's programme:

The blogosphere has been awash with accusations of a climate change conspiracy. The UN, it's claimed, tried to cover up a prediction made about 'climate refugees'. More or Less investigates.

What really happened immediately after Henry Cooper knocked Cassius Clay to the floor in their famous 1963 fight?

In late April, the OECD (the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) released a report stating that progress in reducing child poverty in the UK has stalled. But how is child poverty measured? And is the official measure the best way to think about it?

And finally: Professor Danny Dorling, a geographer at the University of Sheffield, offers a surprising statistical overview of Britain.

Producer: Richard Knight.

~More Or Less looks at child poverty, climate refugees and Sir Henry Cooper's left hook.

The US Supreme Court recently issued a judgement on what might seem an unlikely subject: the uses and abuses of statistical significance testing. We explain why it matters.

It seems not a week goes by without a politician claiming to be progressive - or claiming that the other guy to be regressive. Everyone seems to assume that progressivity in the tax system is self-evidently a good thing. But is that always true?

This week we were told that inflation has fallen by all measures but with the biggest drop shown in the Consumer Prices Index. What exactly is the difference between CPI and RPI? It's not - as most journalists report - all about housing costs.

Producer: Richard Knight.

Tim Harford and the team on tuition fees and drugs testing.

In More or Less this week:

Are public sector workers paid 43 per cent more than those in the private sector, as the think tank Policy Exchange claimed this week?

If all over 55-year-olds were given cholesterol and blood pressure-lowering drugs - as researchers recently suggested - how many people would take those drugs unnecessarily?

Jonah Lehrer on the 'decline effect', the disturbing finding that many scientific results appear to fade over time.

Kelly Greenhill from Tufts and Harvard universities tries to calculate the civilian death toll in Iraq since the 2003 invasion.

Is modern science too complicated to be left to the scientists? Darrel Ince on a scandal in academia.

And we try to patch things up with poor old Fireman Dibble.

Producer: Richard Knight.

Investigating the public sector pay premium, statins and the 'decline effect'.

The US Supreme Court recently issued a judgement on what might seem an unlikely subject: the uses and abuses of statistical significance testing. We explain why it matters.

It seems not a week goes by without a politician claiming to be progressive - or claiming that the other guy to be regressive. Everyone seems to assume that progressivity in the tax system is self-evidently a good thing. But is that always true?

This week we were told that inflation has fallen by all measures but with the biggest drop shown in the Consumer Prices Index. What exactly is the difference between CPI and RPI? It's not - as most journalists report - all about housing costs.

Producer: Richard Knight.

Tim Harford and the team on tuition fees and drugs testing.

Tim Harford returns with a new series, explaining the numbers behind the news.

In this week's More or Less:

A very big number

The United States has decided that its total debt - $14.3 trillion - is to be allowed to get even bigger. But how much is $14.3 trillion? It's a number so huge, it's almost impossible to imagine. But we try, with the help of Nigel Holmes.

NHS spending

Before the last election the Conservatives promised they would increase spending on the NHS in England in real terms, and in the Coalition Agreement they and the Liberal Democrats reiterated the commitment. But there have been accusations that they've already broken that pledge. Have they?

Decades of austerity?

In July the Office for Budget Responsibility published a 'fiscal sustainability report' in which it considered the likely health of Britain's finances far into the future. According to newspaper reports, the OBR struck a sobering tone, explaining that we face decades of austerity because of rising health and education costs, and an ageing population. But is that the right way to look at it? Michael Blastland thinks not.

The '27 Club

When Amy Winehouse was found dead last month, newspapers around the world pointed out that death at 27 put the singer in a club which few would wish to join: the so-called '27 club' of rock and pop musicians who died at that age. But is it really true - as some have claimed - that superstar musicians are more likely to die at 27 than at any other age? We asked Matt Parker of Queen Mary University of London to work out the answer.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team unpick more numbers in the news.

In More or Less this week:

England's riots

Can numbers tell us what caused the violence? We look at claims that cuts caused the trouble and we suggest other explanations - including the possibility that simple demographics made the unrest more likely.

Sovereign debt

Who do indebted nations actually owe? We explain with the help of Adam Davidson, co-host of US National Public Radio's 'Planet Money' show.

Disability payments

Recently the Department for Work and Pensions published statistics about Employment Support Allowance, or ESA. The numbers prompted headlines like this one: 'The shirking classes: Just 1 in 14 incapacity claimants is unfit to work'. But is that really what the statistics told us? (Short answer: no.)

When to buy a lottery ticket

At what time should you buy a lottery ticket to have a greater chance of winning than of dying before the draw?

Producer: Richard Knight.

Riots, debt, disability benefit and when to buy a lotto ticket.

Salt, 'zero tolerance' policing, and how to predict the adult height of growing children.

'Salt, 'zero tolerance' policing, and how to predict the adult height of growing children.'

Is salt bad for you?

A recent Cochrane Collaboration review set out 'to assess whether advice to cut down on salt in foods altered our risk of death or cardiovascular disease'. Its plain English summary read: 'Cutting down on the amount of salt has no clear benefits in terms of likelihood of dying or experiencing cardiovascular disease'. That might surprise you. Public health bodies have been telling us to eat less salt for years. So has the Cochrane Collaboration paper really challenged that advice? More or Less investigates.

Zero-tolerance' policing

One of the stories of the week was the arrival of American supercop Bill Bratton as an advisor to the Prime Minister in the wake of the recent riots and looting. We were curious about the statistical evidence on Bill Bratton's record as the chief of police first in Boston, then New York and later in Los Angeles. What did he actually do, did it work and - if it did - did it work for the reasons Bill Bratton's supporters claim?

Predicting the adult height of growing children

We were recently asked a question by a rather short man who is married to a rather tall woman. He was wondering whether, as an old piece of homespun wisdom claims, sons are always taller than their mothers - in which case his two boys will grow to be big strapping lads. But is there any truth in it? Or is it just a tall tale?

Producer: Richard Knight.

Scottish independence

Listeners have already been in touch with us asking for clarification on the various claims made about the economic viability of an independent Scotland with the prospect of a referendum in the next five years.

Is Scotland subsidised by the rest of the UK or does it more than pay its way through North Sea oil revenues? And what would have happened if an independent Scotland had to bail out RBS and HBOS?

Mobile phones and cancer

There have been some scary headlines about mobile phones and links to brain cancer recently after the WHO classified radiofrequency electromagnetic fields as possibly carcinogenic to humans.

But did all the press coverage get this right? Professor Kevin McConway from the Open University explains what this development really means.

Is Tendulkar the greatest sportsman alive?

It's a question that often prompts heated discussion but can maths help us arrive at a more definitive answer? Writer Rob Eastaway makes the case for Indian cricketer, Sachin Tendulkar.

Producer: Phil Kemp.

Scottish independence, mobile phones and cancer; and is Tendulkar the greatest sportsman?

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Listeners have already been in touch with us asking for clarification on the various claims made about the economic viability of an independent Scotland with the prospect of a referendum in the next five years. Is Scotland subsidised by the rest of the UK or does it more than pay its way through North Sea oil revenues? And what would have happened if an independent Scotland had to bail out RBS and HBOS?

There have been some scary headlines about mobile phones and links to brain cancer recently after the WHO classified radiofrequency electromagnetic fields as possibly carcinogenic to humans. But did all the press coverage get this right? Professor Kevin McConway from the Open University explains what this development really means.

Scottish independence, mobile phones and cancer, and is Tendulkar the greatest sportsman?

Debt: A European Odyssey

On More or Less we're always looking for the perfect analogy to help clarify complicated things.

And the European debt crisis is pretty complicated.

The good news is that we think we've come up with exactly the right way to describe the whole sorry business - as Homer's Odyssey.

Alternative medicine and the placebo effect

Earlier in the summer a study was published which seemed to suggest that acupuncture might help some patients with unexplained symptoms.

Interesting.

We asked Margaret McCartney, a Glasgow GP and a blogger on medical evidence, to investigate.

But Dr McCartney thinks the study tells us about more than just acupuncture - it tells us something about the whole way in which treatments are administered on the NHS.

Asking the right questions

This summer, the Office for National Statistics celebrates seventy years of its social surveys.

We've been looking back at their work, some of which is a little surprising.

In November 1941 the Wartime Social Survey Unit undertook a major study of women's undergarments.

The reason? Steel.

Britain needed to know how much metal was being used to support the country's women, rather than the war effort.

Producer: Richard Knight.

Euro debt odyssey, the placebo effect and 70 years of social surveys.

On More or Less we're always looking for the perfect analogy to help clarify complicated things. And the European debt crisis is pretty complicated. The good news is that we think we've come up with exactly the right way to describe the whole sorry business - as Homer's Odyssey.

Earlier in the summer a study was published which seemed to suggest that acupuncture might help some patients with unexplained symptoms. Interesting. We asked Margaret McCartney, a Glasgow GP and a blogger on medical evidence, to investigate. But Dr McCartney thinks the study tells us about more than just acupuncture - it tells us something about the whole way in which treatments are administered on the NHS.

This summer, the Office for National Statistics celebrates seventy years of its social surveys. We've been looking back at their work, some of which is a little surprising. In November 1941 the Wartime Social Survey Unit undertook a major study of women's undergarments. The reason? Steel. Britain needed to know how much metal was being used to support the country's women, rather than the war effort.

In More or Less this week:

Government waste

The Government says Local Authorities are wasting £10 billion a year through poor spending decisions. That's a huge potential saving. But does it stack up?

A logic puzzle

The Justice Secretary Ken Clarke said in Monday's Guardian that almost three quarters of people charged with offences from the recent riots have previous convictions. Does that mean most of the rioters had previous convictions - as Ken Clarke seems to be suggesting - or were the police simply more likely to catch and charge looters who were already known to them because they had previous convictions?

The statistics of spying

The chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee, which advises the Cabinet and oversees aspects of the British Intelligence services, is trained as a statistician. His name is Alex Allan. We asked him how statistics and maths help MI5 and MI6 to do their jobs.

Olympic economics

Is there any evidence that the Olympics have financial value? Do they make a profit in their own right? What about the wider economic benefits, such as tourism or urban regeneration? And does hosting the Olympics inspire a nation to take up sport, as is sometimes claimed? More or Less investigates.

In this item we mistakenly say that Professor Mike Weed is from Coventry University. He is in fact director of SPEAR (Sport Physical Education and Activity Research) at Canterbury Christ Church University.

The JANITOR problem

What are the chances of drawing seven letters which make the word JANITOR in your first turn at Scrabble - twice?

Producer: Richard Knight.

This edition features zombie statistics, the Olympics and the maths of spying.

Public sector strike:

This week a 24-hour strike over pension changes saw hundreds of thousands of public sector workers at rallies, marches and on picket lines. But there were a lot of conflicting numbers being thrown about. Tim Harford explains how the government was able to make public sector pensions sound generous, at the same time the unions could make them sound small.

Eurostats:

The Financial Times this week reported that the head of Greece's new independent statistics agency, Andreas Georgiou, is facing an official criminal investigation for alleged statistical crimes. Tim finds out from the economist Professor Yanis Varoufakis of the University of Athens what Mr Georgiou is accused of.

And in the first of a series of scrutiny of Eurozone-crisis inspired statistical claims, Wesley Stephenson asks whether it's really true that there are more Porsche Cayenne owners than tax payers declaring an income of more than £55,000 in Greece.

Cheap homes?

We explain what affordable housing is, and how affordable it is.

World on an island:

It is often said that the world's population could fit on the Isle of Wight, if people stood shoulder to shoulder. But is it true, now that the UN estimates that there are 7bn people on earth? To test the theory, Tim Harford tries to squeeze as many people as possible into his studio.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Editor: Richard Vadon.

Tim Harford on public sector pensions, eurozone statistics, and affordable housing.

The National Literacy Trust said this week that one in three children does not own a book.

The national media lamented, but we take a closer inspection of the report and the data collected, and find some better news.

Supermarket price wars:

TIM HARFORD and Anthony Reuben work out how all supermarkets can claim to be cheaper than each other, without being slapped down for false advertising.

Eurostats II:

We continue to scrutinise the enormous numbers emerging from the Eurozone crisis.

Do Italian tax payers really pay 2 billion euros a year for their politicians to be chauffered around? Wesley Stephenson checks out the figures.

Amazing?

What are the odds of breaking four double-yolk eggs into your baking bowl, one after another? That's what happened to our colleague Jennifer Clarke and her friend Lynsey as they prepared profiteroles at the weekend.

TIM HARFORD works out the probabilities for the amazed bakers...before Jennifer then breaks the remaining two eggs in the box...will they too be double yolkers?

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Editor: Richard Vadon.

The maths of supermarket price wars and odds of cracking six double-yoke eggs in a row.

Children's Books:

The National Literacy Trust said this week that one in three children does not own a book. The national media lamented, but we take a closer inspection of the report and the data collected, and find some better news.

We continue to scrutinise the enormous numbers emerging from the Eurozone crisis. Do Italian tax payers really pay 2 billion euros a year for their politicians to be chauffered around? Wesley Stephenson checks out the figures.

What are the odds of breaking four double-yolk eggs into your baking bowl, one after another? That's what happened to our colleague Jennifer Clarke and her friend Lynsey as they prepared profiteroles at the weekend. Tim Harford works out the probabilities for the amazed bakers...before Jennifer then breaks the remaining two eggs in the box...will they too be double yolkers?

The maths of supermarket price wars and odds of cracking six double-yolk eggs in a row.

In the week that scientists at the Large Hadron Collider announced that the most coveted prize in particle physics - the Higgs boson - may have been found, Tim Harford hears how everyone is getting confused about how to report statistical significance.

Robert Matthew of Aston University says the meaning of 2, 3 and 5-sigma evidence is being misinterpreted by science journalists and some of the physicists themselves.

Medieval mathematics:

Tim Harford talks to author Keith Devlin about how Fibonacci revolutionised trade by introducing medieval businessmen to simple arithmetic.

How (not) to corner a market:

Performance artist Jamie Moakes is trying to corner the market in a 1980s plastic doll from cartoon series He- Man.

Tim Harford explores the difficulties of Jamie's quest to push up the price of something that for many years no one has much wanted.

He hears from Professor Eric Smith of the University of Essex who says that there is no saying why certain items gain value, although in this instance Jamie may struggle to achieve his goal.

He also hears lessons from history from John Gapper of the Financial Times.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

~More Or Less is made in association with the Open University.

Higgs boson statistics; how to corner a market; and Fibonacci's medieval mathematics.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

In the week that scientists at the Large Hadron Collider announced that the most coveted prize in particle physics - the Higgs boson - may have been found, Tim Harford hears how everyone is getting confused about how to report statistical significance. Robert Matthew of Aston University says the meaning of 2, 3 and 5-sigma evidence is being misinterpreted by science journalists and some of the physicists themselves.

Performance artist Jamie Moakes is trying to corner the market in a 1980s plastic doll from cartoon series He- Man. Tim Harford explores the difficulties of Jamie's quest to push up the price of something that for many years no one has much wanted. He hears from Professor Eric Smith of the University of Essex who says that there is no saying why certain items gain value, although in this instance Jamie may struggle to achieve his goal. He also hears lessons from history from John Gapper of the Financial Times.

Laughing in the face of risk:

DAVID SPIEGELHALTER, the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University explains what led him to take on what could be his riskiest venture to date - appearing as a contestant on BBC One's Winter Wipeout. Really.

The magic of maths:

As a special Christmas treat, we're honoured to have a guest appearance from a top professor of maths and statistics - described by magician (and loyal listener) PAUL DANIELS as a 'legend'. Persi Diaconis, of Stanford University in California and co-author of 'Magical Mathematics', has an enthralling story to tell of how he discovered magic as a boy, and then, as a consequence, a love of maths. And to illustrate how closely maths and magic are linked, Crossing Continents editor and the BBC's in-house magician, Hugh Levinson, performs a mathemagical card trick - see the performance below.

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

TIM HARFORD discusses income inequality and meets the professor appearing on TV's Wipeout.

TIM HARFORD investigates the numbers in the news.

As a special Christmas treat, we're honoured to have a guest appearance from a top professor of maths and statistics - described by magician (and loyal listener) PAUL DANIELS as a 'legend'. Persi Diaconis, of Stanford University in California and co-author of Magical Mathematics, has an enthralling story to tell of how he discovered magic as a boy, and then, as a consequence, a love of maths. And to illustrate how closely maths and magic are linked, Crossing Continents editor and the BBC's in-house magician, Hugh Levinson, performs a mathemagical card trick - see the performance below.

As a special Christmas treat, we're honoured to have a guest appearance from a top professor of maths and statistics - described by magician (and loyal listener) Paul Daniels as a 'legend'. Persi Diaconis, of Stanford University in California and co-author of Magical Mathematics, has an enthralling story to tell of how he discovered magic as a boy, and then, as a consequence, a love of maths. And to illustrate how closely maths and magic are linked, Crossing Continents editor and the BBC's in-house magician, Hugh Levinson, performs a mathemagical card trick - see the performance below.

Contributors: DAVID SPIEGELHALTER, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University; Owen Spottiswoode, Fullfact.org; Tracey Brown from Sense about Science; Jil Matheson, UK Statistics Authority; George Monbiot; Sir Mark Walport, Director of the Wellcome Trust; Money Box presenter PAUL LEWIS; Sports Statistician, Robert Mastrodomenico; Dr Linda Yeuh Economics Correspondent at Bloomberg; Stand up Mathematician Matt Parker.

'A guide to interesting, informative or just plain idiosyncratic numbers of the year.'

The year in numbers - people name and discuss the number which they found to be the most revealing or surprising. Plus, does probability really exist.

Tim Harford looks at numbers in the news and in life, including statistics in court.

Tim Harford looks at the arguments for high speed rail with railway consultant Chris Stokes and Alison Munro from HS2 Ltd. He investigates the different measures of the rise in executive pay with Steve Tatton from Income Data Services and Sarah Wilson from research group Manifest. He resolves a four year-old bet on climate change between climate scientist James Annan and astrophysicist David Whitehouse and Wesley Stephenson looks behind the figures for youth unemployment in Spain.

Tim Harford looks at high speed rail and executive pay.

First of a new series.

It's been claimed that we are experiencing the greatest wave of extinction since the disappearance of the dinosaurs. 'Every hour,' says the Convention on Biological Diversity, 'three species disappear. Every day up to 150 species are lost.' We explain why it's impossible to know whether those numbers are even remotely accurate.

A listener asks whether it's true that more British tourists die in Thailand than in any other tourist destination. We get the answer (which - for those who're short of time - is 'no').

North Korea is in the news thanks to its recent failure to launch a long-range rocket - an embarrassment for its new leader, Kim Jong-un. What was supposed to be a symbol of power has become a symbol of impotence. But a claim has been doing the rounds which is as resonant as any misfiring missile: that North Koreans are much shorter than their South Korean neighbours. It turns out it's true - and for tragic reasons.

Is it really the case that, as one newspaper headline put it, 'Blobby Bobbies of Scotland Lard - Three Quarters of male Met Staff are overweight'?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Knight.

The height of North Koreans, the width of police officers and rate of species extinction.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

The Long Rain

The numbers behind the drought, the hosepipe ban and how much difference recent rainfall (enough to shrink men's hands into the hands of wrinkled apes) has made.

The Midas Formula

The story of Black-Scholes, the equation that transformed Wall Street - and the arguments over whether it made the world a better place, or helped cause the financial mess we've all been dealing with for the past five years.

Tall Tories

Last week we discovered North Koreans really are shorter than their South Korean counterparts thanks to poor nutrition in the North. This week: are Labour MPs shorter than Conservative parliamentarians?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Knight.

The drought in numbers, the formula that changed the world, and tall Tories.

A grand economic experiment?

Are we witnessing a Grand Economic Experiment being played out between Britain, trying to cut its way out of trouble, and the United States, trying to spend its way to redemption?

Border brouhaha

Just how long have travellers been waiting to get through immigration at Heathrow Airport? We wade into a statistical slanging match between an airline operator and a Home Office minister.

What are you planning to do with the bank holiday? Paint the bathroom? Listen to old podcasts of More or Less? Or DESTROY THE ECONOMY? Could it possibly be true that cancelling all eight regular bank holidays in England and Wales would boost GDP by 1.3%?

Choral coincidence

Lister Julia Atkins wrote: I belong to a wonderful choir, Rock Chorus, in Milton Keynes. I discovered one evening that 3 new ladies had come along from Olney, 10 miles away. They all sat next to each other. They had never met before. But most extraordinary was that they all lived in the same road!! That's quite a combination of coincidences, I think you'll agree. Well, we'll see.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Knight.

Lister Julia Atkins wrote: I belong to a wonderful choir, Rock Chorus, in Milton Keynes. I discovered one evening that 3 new ladies had come along from Olney, 10 miles away. They all sat next to each other. They had never met before. But most extraordinary was that they all lived in the same road!! That's quite a combination of coincidences, I think you'll agree. Well, we'll see.

Lister Julia Atkins wrote: 'I belong to a wonderful choir, Rock Chorus, in Milton Keynes. I discovered one evening that 3 new ladies had come along from Olney, 10 miles away. They all sat next to each other. They had never met before. But most extraordinary was that they all lived in the same road!! That's quite a combination of coincidences, I think you'll agree.' Well, we'll see.

'With Tim Harford. Austerity, border queues and bank holidays.'

Are we witnessing a grand economic experiment being played out between Europe, trying to cut its way out of trouble, and the United States, trying to spend its way to redemption?

'Are we witnessing a grand economic experiment being played out between Europe, trying to cut its way out of trouble, and the United States, trying to spend its way to redemption?'

'With Tim Harford. Austerity, border queues and bank holidays.'

Fire at will?

The Beecroft Report has been stirring up controversy all week. But is there any evidence that the economy would be boosted if employers could fire their staff at will, as Adrian Beecroft recommends? Professor John Van Reenan - director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics - can't find much.

Hard-working Greeks

One version of the Euro crisis story has it that hard-working Germans are bailing out lazy Greeks. But in fact Greek workers put in far longer hours than their German counterparts.

The maths of infidelity

It's a very commonly-held belief that men are less faithful than women. But it takes two to tango. So can this be mathematically possible?

Publication bias

If we on More or Less were only to report statistical errors, and never statistical triumphs, you could be forgiven for concluding that the world is full of numerical lies. That's publication bias - and it's a big problem in science, as Ben Goldacre explains.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Knight.

Fire 'at will'?

The Beecroft Report has been stirring up controversy all week. But is there any evidence that the economy would be boosted if employers could fire their staff 'at will', as Adrian Beecroft recommends? Professor John Van Reenan - director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics - can't find much.

If we on More or Less were only to report statistical errors, and never statistical triumphs, you could be forgiven for concluding that the world is full of numerical lies. That's 'publication bias' - and it's a big problem in science, as Ben Goldacre explains.

The Beecroft Review, infidelity, Ben Goldacre and the truth about hard-working Greeks.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Fire at will?

The Beecroft Report has been stirring up controversy all week. But is there any evidence that the economy would be boosted if employers could fire their staff at will, as Adrian Beecroft recommends? Professor John Van Reenan - director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics - can't find much.

Hard-working Greeks

One version of the Euro crisis story has it that hard-working Germans are bailing out lazy Greeks. But in fact Greek workers put in far longer hours than their German counterparts.

The maths of infidelity

It's a very commonly-held belief that men are less faithful than women. But it takes two to tango. So can this be mathematically possible?

Publication bias

If we on More or Less were only to report statistical errors, and never statistical triumphs, you could be forgiven for concluding that the world is full of numerical lies. That's publication bias - and it's a big problem in science, as Ben Goldacre explains.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Knight.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Fire at will?

The Beecroft Report has been stirring up controversy all week. But is there any evidence that the economy would be boosted if employers could fire their staff at will, as Adrian Beecroft recommends? Professor John Van Reenan - director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics - can't find much.

Hard-working Greeks

One version of the Euro crisis story has it that hard-working Germans are bailing out lazy Greeks. But in fact Greek workers put in far longer hours than their German counterparts.

The maths of infidelity

It's a very commonly-held belief that men are less faithful than women. But it takes two to tango. So can this be mathematically possible?

Publication bias

If we on More or Less were only to report statistical errors, and never statistical triumphs, you could be forgiven for concluding that the world is full of numerical lies. That's publication bias - and it's a big problem in science, as Ben Goldacre explains.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Knight.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Fire 'at will'?

The Beecroft Report has been stirring up controversy all week. But is there any evidence that the economy would be boosted if employers could fire their staff 'at will', as Adrian Beecroft recommends? Professor John Van Reenan - director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics - can't find much.

If we on More or Less were only to report statistical errors, and never statistical triumphs, you could be forgiven for concluding that the world is full of numerical lies. That's 'publication bias' - and it's a big problem in science, as Ben Goldacre explains.

The Beecroft Review, infidelity, Ben Goldacre and the truth about hard-working Greeks.

In this week's programme:

Libor losers

How much damage did messing with Libor really do to the financial system? After all, most financial trades are two way bets - and for every winner, there is a loser. Did the banks really pick our pockets as they manipulated Libor? Or were they just picking each others'?

A million starving children?

We investigate the claim made by a leading charity that a million British children are 'starving'.

Challenge Yan

Yan Wong from 'Bang Goes the Theory' offers to answer any question More or Less listeners can throw at him.

Crunching the census

Late last March, you may remember filling in a form for the 2011 census. Whatever happened to that? Well, the first results for England, Wales and Northern Ireland are coming out next week. We find out what we'll be finding out.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Richard Knight.

Investigating the numbers in the news. Presented by Tim Harford.

We investigate the claim made by a leading charity that a million British children are starving.

Yan Wong from Bang Goes the Theory offers to answer any question More or Less listeners can throw at him.

How much damage did messing with Libor actually do to the financial system?

Has the Tour cleaned up?

The Tour de France reaches its climax this week. Cycling, we are told, has finally cleaned up its act and clamped down on the use of performance-enhancing drugs. But if it has, should we expect today's drug-free riders to be slower than their drug-fuelled forebears? Can statistics tell us whether the Tour de France really is cleaner than it was?

Will 90% of us be too fat by 2050?

Should companies such as McDonalds and Coca-Cola sponsor the Olympics? Well, who knows? But amid the arguments about the rights and wrongs of promoting burgers and fizzy drinks through sport, some suspicious obesity statistics have been belched into the debate.

Over the last few weeks government ministers have been repeatedly telling us that they have cut the deficit by a quarter. The government would like us to feel cheerful about this. But how impressed should we be?

Does when you retire influence when you die?

Every now and again on More or Less we investigate a statistical claim which is repeated again and again by people who can't quite remember where they heard it, but believe it to be true. Here's one: the earlier you retire, the longer you live. Is it true?

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Richard Knight.

Can maths prove whether the Tour de France has successfully clamped down on drugs?

Investigating the numbers in the news. Presented by Tim Harford.

Levelling the statistical playing field

If you adjust for the fact that some countries are richer than others, and some have more people in them, can we work out what the Olympic medal tally should look like, based only on those factors?

Gun control

Last week's mass-shooting at a cinema in Colorado has - not surprisingly - intensified America's bitter and long-running argument with itself about gun control. The argument is political and highly partisan. But it is also practical: would tighter gun laws actually lead to fewer gun deaths? You might think it's obvious that they would. But it seems the evidence isn't quite that clear.

Tax

The treasury minister David Gauke came in for some stick this week for arguing that people who pay plumbers and cleaners cash-in-hand, while not breaking the law, are immoral. Several commentators have argued that the problem is small beer compared to the huge amounts sheltered from the taxman by large companies and rich individuals. Are they right?

Leaders' mums

Listener Mike Shearing wrote to us after noticing that the mums of post-war US presidents seem to have died very late, while British prime ministerial mothers seem to die young. Had he - he asked - found something of significance? He certainly had.

How has Britain changed since 1908?

A new book by researchers at the House of Commons Library charts in numbers how Britain has changed since it hosted the 1908 Olympics. Their findings may surprise you.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Richard Knight.

Investigating the numbers in the news. Presented by Tim Harford.

In this week's programme:

There was controversy this week after Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 metre individual medley in fine style. A US swimming coach called the performance 'disturbing', implying that she may have cheated. More or Less investigates the numbers and finds there's no statistical smoking gun.

Does the news that homelessness has risen by 25% mean that homelessness has risen by 25%? The simple answer is yes. But that word 'homeless'; in the words of the great Inigo Montoya, I do not think it means what you think it means.

How many songs could ever be written?

TV's Yan Wong answers this listener's question: 'I'm always amazed by the number of songs one can recognise on hearing the first second or two of music. Is it possible to calculate the total number of potential opening bars? Surely it must be finite?

The crime capital of television

We look for the most dangerous place in TV crime drama. Why? Because we can.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Richard Knight.

There was controversy this week after Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 metre individual medley in fine style. A US swimming coach called the performance disturbing, implying that she may have cheated. More or Less investigates the numbers and finds there's no statistical smoking gun.

Does the news that homelessness has risen by 25% mean that homelessness has risen by 25%? The simple answer is yes. But that word homeless; in the words of the great Inigo Montoya, I do not think it means what you think it means.

TV's Yan Wong answers this listener's question: I'm always amazed by the number of songs one can recognise on hearing the first second or two of music. Is it possible to calculate the total number of potential opening bars? Surely it must be finite?

Investigating the numbers in the news. Presented by Tim Harford.

'Ye Shiwen's statistics, what's happening to homelessness, and TV's murder capital.'

In this week's programme:

High frequency trading

Last week Knight Capital lost a lot of money very quickly. It was the latest chapter in the story of something called 'high frequency trading'. Investors have always valued being the first with the news. But high frequency trading is different: algorithms execute automatic trades, conducted by computers, at astonishing speeds. We ask: is the rapid growth of high frequency trading progress, or - as some think - a threat to the stability of the entire financial system?

While the Olympic medal table puts all UK successes together, some people have been tempted to peer under the surface. Scotland has been pronounced superior to England per head of population, while Yorkshire has been hailed as the number one county, beating Australia in the medals table. We check the sums.

A year after Trumptonshire's Treasurer (Con. T Harford) embarked on a round of public spending cuts which included sacking Fireman Dibble, we return to Trumpton to find out what happened next to the county's economy - and to poor old Dibble.

The geeks are coming

Mark Henderson discusses his new book, The Geek Manifesto, which argues for more scientific thinking in public life.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Knight.

Investigating the numbers in the news. Presented by Tim Harford.

'High-frequency trading, Trumptonomics and more medalling with the Olympics.'

Playing the fields

The Olympics were supposed to inspire a generation to take up sport. No wonder, then, that people are depressed about the government's record of selling off playing fields. But what do the numbers really tell us?

RIP RPI?

We explain why a weird flaw in the way the retail price index (a key inflation measure) is calculated is dry and technical - but far more important than you might think.

David's line

Our final listener question for TV's Yan Wong: If Solomon - son of King David - had about a thousand wives and concubines, as the Bible says, wouldn't it be the case that by the time of Jesus - many generations later - pretty much everyone in Israel could claim to be a descendant of King David?

20mph roads

It was reported recently that the number of people killed or injured on 20mph roads has risen by nearly a quarter. Does that mean 20mph roads are less safe than we thought? Or is there another explanation?

Thinking in Numbers

On More or Less we think numbers help us to understand the world. But for DANIEL TAMMET, they're a lot more important than that. For him, numbers don't just help him to understand the real world. They're his ticket to being a part of it. We've been talking to Daniel - a mathematical savant - about his new book, 'Thinking in Numbers'.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Richard Knight.

On More or Less we think numbers help us to understand the world. But for Daniel Tammet, they're a lot more important than that. For him, numbers don't just help him to understand the real world. They're his ticket to being a part of it. We've been talking to Daniel - a mathematical savant - about his new book, Thinking in Numbers.

Investigating the numbers in the news. Presented by Tim Harford.

Fiscal Multipliers. The International Monetary Fund has admitted that it got its fiscal multipliers wrong when forecasting growth. This could have huge consequences in assessing whether or not austerity at a time of deep recession is the right way forward. But what does this mean for the Treasurer of Trumpton TIM HARFORD after he sacked Dibble the fireman last year as part of his cutbacks.

Cod - we show how wrong the headline 'There are only 100 cod left in the North Sea' actually is.

Fergie-time. Does Fergie-time exist? Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top teams when they're drawing or behind?

Tim Harford returns with a new series looking at the numbers in the news.

Tim Harford fells some ash tree related statistics and asks if Fergie-time really exists.

TIM HARFORD looks at opinion polling, the consistency of Kevin Pietersen's batting, and how high you can stack Lego bricks.

On More or Less this week TIM HARFORD looks at three polls carried out to gauge the public's opinion on press regulation gave vastly different answers despite being carried out by the same polling company. Tim talks to the Peter Kellner, President of online polling company YouGov.

Would you send Kevin Pietersen out to bat if your life depended on him scoring a century?

Have two thirds of millionaires really left the country as claimed by the Daily Telegraph this week?

What percentage of drinks might be affected by the introduction of a minimum price for alcohol.

And how high could you build a Lego tower before the bottom brick collapses? Ruth Alexander dons her safety goggles to find out?

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

Tim Harford looks at opinion polling, and how high you can stack Lego bricks.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

In light of the Royal pregnancy Tim Harford asks what severe morning sickness tells us about the chances of having twins. Yan Wong helps him look at the figures.

We disentangle the Chancellor's Autumn Statement and ask: where is the economy really at?

As Nigeria prepares to revise its GDP statistics with an expected jump of 40-60%, we ask how reliable are African GDP statistics?

Another Daily Telegraph headline comes under scrutiny.

And we return to our Lego tower and look at how Lego can be used to teach maths with Eugenia Cheng of Sheffield University.

Tim asks what is rare? And are words sometimes better than numbers when communicating information.

Nassim Taleb explains anti-fragility

And we'll debunk the oft quoted 'you're never more than 6ft from a rat'.

Tim Harford looks at why the estimate for Eastern Europeans coming to the UK was so wrong.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

The recent massacre at a school in the United States has re-opened the debate on gun ownership in the US. Tim Harford investigates whether the anti-gun statistics being widely shared on the internet stand up to scrutiny.

Whether you're looking at crime statistics or the effectiveness or hospitals, we've long argued on More or Less that death is the one hard fact that it's very hard to fudge. So imagine how surprised we are to find out it's not very reliable an outcome at all. At least not in England. Medical statistician Professor Sheila Bird tells Tim why she's concerned that the death register in England is causing delays for important health research.

Eating more chocolate improves a nation's chances of producing Nobel Prize winners - or at least that's what a recent study appears to suggest. But how much chocolate do Nobel laureates eat, and how could any such link be explained?

The average age of first-time buyers has been steadily climbing for years - it's not just government ministers who say this - everyone says it, everyone knows it. Apart from, More or Less discovers, the people who actually calculate the figure: the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Plus, the statistical paradox of road collisions caused by deer; and the mathematics of juggling, with Colin Wright.

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford investigates US gun crime statistics and the average age of first-time buyers.

A guide to 2012 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees.

Contributors: ROBERT PESTON, BBC's Business Editor; Dr Pippa Wells, physicist at CERN; Bill Edgar, author of Back of the Net One Hundred Golden Goals; Gabriella Lebrecht, sports analyst at Decision Technology; Helen Joyce, Brazil correspondent for The Economist; JACK STRAW, Member of Parliament for Blackburn; Jil Matheson, the UK's National Statistician; Dr James Grime, from the Millennium Mathematics Project at the University of Cambridge; GILLIAN TETT, columnist and assistant editor of the Financial Times; DAVID SPIEGELHALTER, Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University

Presenter: TIM HARFORD.

Producer: Charlotte Pritchard.

Contributors: Robert Peston, BBC's Business Editor; Dr Pippa Wells, physicist at CERN; Bill Edgar, author of Back of the Net One Hundred Golden Goals; John Rodda, Hydrologist; Gabriella Lebrecht, sports analyst at Decision Technology; Helen Joyce, Brazil correspondent for The Economist; Jack Straw, Member of Parliament for Blackburn; Jil Matheson, the UK's National Statistician; Dr James Grime, from the Millennium Mathematics Project at the University of Cambridge; Gillian Tett, columnist and assistant editor of the Financial Times; David Spiegelhalter, Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University

Contributors: Robert Peston, BBC's Business Editor; Dr Pippa Wells, physicist at CERN; Bill Edgar, author of Back of the Net One Hundred Golden Goals; Gabriella Lebrecht, sports analyst at Decision Technology; Helen Joyce, Brazil correspondent for The Economist; Jack Straw, Member of Parliament for Blackburn; Jil Matheson, the UK's National Statistician; Dr James Grime, from the Millennium Mathematics Project at the University of Cambridge; Gillian Tett, columnist and assistant editor of the Financial Times; David Spiegelhalter, Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University

Presenter: Tim Harford.

Producer: Charlotte Pritchard.

Tim Harford and guests look back at the most surprising statistics of 2012.

Tim Harford tells us what a 'guess the weight of the ox' competition tells us about a bloated and dysfunctional financial system. It features two noted economics writers: James Surowiecki of the New Yorker and John Kay of the Financial Times and a brand new composition from the New Radiophonic Workshop.

Dr James Grime brings a real-live enigma machine into the studio and we ask how you measure which is the greatest racehorse of all time.

What the Parable of the Ox can tell us about a bloated and dysfunctional financial system.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

What the Parable of the Ox can tell us about a bloated and dysfunctional financial system.

Austerity: a spreadsheet error?

TIM HARFORD tells the story of the student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper that has been used to make the case for austerity cuts. In 2010, two Harvard economists published an academic study, which showed that when government debt rises above 90% of annual economic output, growth falls significantly. As politicians tried to find answers to the global economic crisis, Growth in a Time of Debt by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was cited by some of the key figures making the case for tough debt-cutting measures in the US and Europe. But, in the course of a class project, student Thomas Herndon and his professors say they have found problems with the Reinhart-Rogoff findings. What does this mean for austerity economics?

Interviewees: Thomas Herndon, University of Massachusetts student; Professor Michael Ash, University of Massachusetts; Professor Daniel Hamermesh, Royal Holloway, University of London; Megan McArdle, special correspondent for Newsweek and The Daily Beast.

MARGARET THATCHER in Numbers:

Baroness Thatcher was Britain's first female prime minister and one of the most influential political figures of the 20th Century. She was a pioneer of free market economics, helping to spread the ideas around the world. But the Iron lady was a divisive figure with passionate supporters and critics. Both hold to strong beliefs about what she did. But what does the data tell us about the many claims made about Mrs Thatcher?

With special thanks for the journalism of MICHAEL BLASTLAND and Andrew Dilnot.

Interviewees: Professor Andrew Oswald, Warwick University; Professor Alissa Goodman, Institute of Education; Professor Nick Crafts, Warwick University.

A mathematical reading of the Magic Flute:

Hear Professor Marcus du Sautoy's mathematical reading of the Magic Flute, presented at London's Royal Opera House. Mozart's final opera, The Magic Flute, premiered just 10 weeks before the composer's death and was the biggest popular hit of his life. With its panto-style storyline and catchy tunes, it's said to be one of the most accessible operas for the uninitiated. But there's an awful lot going on beneath the jokes and the musical notes.

Birds + Windows =?

In America each day, more than 2 million birds die crashing into window panes. A fact from a recent episode of BBC Radio 4's The Unbelievable Truth. But More or Less refused to believe - and started investigating.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

TIM HARFORD tells the story of the student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper that has been used to make the case for austerity cuts. In 2010, two Harvard economists published an academic study, which showed that when government debt rises above 90% of annual economic output, growth falls significantly. As politicians tried to find answers to the global economic crisis, 'Growth in a Time of Debt' by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was cited by some of the key figures making the case for tough debt-cutting measures in the US and Europe. But, in the course of a class project, student Thomas Herndon and his professors say they have found problems with the Reinhart-Rogoff findings. What does this mean for austerity economics?

In America each day, more than 2 million birds die crashing into window panes.' A fact from a recent episode of BBC Radio 4's The Unbelievable Truth. But More or Less refused to believe - and started investigating.

It's best known for wanting the UK to withdraw from the European Union. This is not an official policy shared by any of the other established political parties.

And, as with any political battleground, numbers have been pressed into service as weapons.

Tim Harford makes sense of the numbers flying around with the help of Iain Begg, professorial research fellow at the London School of Economics' European Institute.

Military suicides:

It's claimed that more Falklands veterans have taken their own lives than died during the conflict itself. But is it true? Next week the government's defence statistics agency will publish a long-awaited report about the number of military personnel who have killed themselves since serving in that conflict in the 1980s. More or Less reporter Charlotte McDonald speaks to Simon Wessely Director, King's Centre for Military Health Research Institute of Psychiatry about what estimates from Vietnam and the first Gulf War tell us about the mental health of war veterans - and about why the rate of deaths tells us more than the raw numbers do.

Why you really might be Richard III's relative:

Fifteen relatives of Richard III are petitioning the High Court about where the king should be buried. Some reporting has implied that the famous 15 are almost the only descendants of Richard III who exist. But mathematician Rob Eastaway figures out how many other distant relatives of Richard III might actually be out there.

Dog years:

It's often said that the age of dogs can be better understood by multiplying their age, in human years, by seven. But is that really true? Ben Carter invents the More or Less Dogulator. Use it to calculate how old your dog is in human terms.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford on the cost of the EU, military suicides, Richard III and dog years.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

It's been reported that Angelina Jolie's 87% cancer risk led to her having a double mastectomy. More or Less examines cancer risk probabilities, and speaks to Dr Kat Arney from Cancer Research UK.

Has the UK been hit by a Romanian crime wave? Speaking on a recent edition of BBC radio 4's Any Questions, Christine Hamilton thought so. More or Less checks the numbers and speaks to the Romanian ambassador, Dr Ion Jinga.

Education Secretary Michael Gove has been criticised for claiming that 'survey after survey' provide evidence of teenagers' ignorance of key historical events - the surveys turn out to be non-rigorous polls commissioned by a TV company and a hotel chain with the aim of turning the results into press releases designed to create publicity in the media. Tim Harford speaks to Michael Marshall from Merseyside Skeptics Society about how the PR survey industry works, and about how frequently they create stories in the news media.

The Prime Minister and the Chancellor say that thousands of jobs are being created by the private sector. This seems surprising as the Coalition Government was formed in the wake of a deep recession and the economy as remained fairly flat ever since. Tim Harford assesses what's really going on with UK employment and speaks to Professor John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics, and Nick Palmer from the Office for National Statistics.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Angelina Jolie's 87% cancer risk examined. And is the UK suffering a Romanian crime wave?

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

Tim Harford inspects the claims the UK Treasury and the Scottish government make about the economics of an independent Scotland; tests Ryanair's claim that more than 90% of its flights land on time; re-runs the Eurovision song contest , excluding the votes of the former Soviet countries to test whether political alliances are affecting the final results; discovers that millions of scientific papers may be incorrect; and learns more about dog years - and cat years.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford on the economics of Scottish independence, Ryanair's punctuality and cat years

MI5 has been criticised in the media after it emerged that both suspects in the Woolwich attack case had been known to them for a decade. But how feasible is it for the security services to follow all the people on their watch list? Tim Harford crunches the numbers, with the help of former head of MI5, Dame Stella Rimington; Howard Wainer, distinguished research scientist at the National Board of Medical Examiners in the US; and Professor Louise Amore, a security data analytics expert from Durham University.

Kidney donations: a cost-benefit analysis

A More or Less listener is donating his kidney to a stranger. Jason contacted the programme to ask how much his donation will save the NHS. Tim Harford compares the cost of the operation with dialysis, and considers the cost-benefit analysis to the donor and recipient. And he looks at whether the UK's system for allocating kidneys could be improved.

Tim speaks to Keith Rigg, consultant transplant surgeon at Nottingham University Hospitals Trust; and Lisa Burnapp, Lead Nurse for Living Donation at NHS Blood and Transplant.

Waste paper?

The Chancellor George Osborne says the Crown Prosecution Service generates a million print-outs per day, and that it's an example of the kind of 'waste' in central spending that he wants to clamp down on. But, in this context, is one million a big number?

The Apprentices do the Math

Over the centuries many top mathematicians have tried and failed to solve some of the great numerical challenges. It took 100 years to prove the Poincare Conjecture, but that was very quick when compared to the 358 years it took to solve Fermat's Last Theorem. However last week on BBC One's The Apprentice programme, a new maths conundrum for the 21st Century was discovered: what is 17 divided by 2? There's only one man who can - maybe - help solve the puzzle: TV's Johnny Ball.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford examines the maths of terror surveillance, and kidney donations.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

'TIM HARFORD explores the world of official statistics, and what are the chances of having multiple sets of twins?'

The news has been awash with headlines about the crisis in A&E departments. More people are using emergency care services and more people are waiting to be treated. We take a look behind the headlines.

Hunting for official statistics

MPs have criticised the way official statistics are published. They say it is hard for both experts and members of the public to make the most of all the statistical information supplied by the Office for National Statistics- the producers of the nation's economic and population data. Tim Harford sits down with Evan Davies to explore the their website. We hear their frustrations and examine how the numbers are used. Not only is it hard to find data, but Chris Giles from the Financial Times explains the problems with reporting data without sufficient context and explanation, leading to poor reporting in the press. We hear from Laura Dewis from the ONS.

What are the chances of a woman having three sets of non-identical twins? It has been reported that it is 1 in 500,000 chance. But is that true? We work out the probability.

Naked Statistics

Tim Harford interviews the author of the new book Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread From the Data. Charles Wheelan, a former Economist correspondent and professor at Dartmouth College in the US, has created an accessible primer for number-crunching: stripping away the complexity and making statistics comprehensible. He gives Tim some statistical tips for parenting.

Men think about sex every seven seconds

This urban myth has been repeated time and again in songs, articles and advertising. But where did it come from? And could it possibly be true? Not to mention- how do men compare to women? More or Less charts the use of the saying, and tests its veracity.

We speak to Professor Terri Fisher, professor of psychology, The Ohio State University at Mansfield in the US.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Tim Harford explores the world of official statistics, plus the chances of having twins.

And, apparently, it's a fact that if there's one thing that's worse for you than drinking, scoffing bacon sandwiches and smoking 80 unfiltered cigarettes a day, it's being left-handed. Left-handers die on average several years earlier than right-handers. Or do they? Tim gets to the bottom of a sinister statistic.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Has the government taken into account the worth of a badger's life in any cost-benefit analysis of the controversial badger cull, which is taking place to tackle the spread of tuberculosis among cattle? TIM HARFORD considers the problem. And the government aims to kill 70% of badgers in the two cull zones, but Tim discovers that such precision might be tricky. It's terribly difficult to count badgers, you see.

Plus, have blundering doctors and nurses really killed 13,000 people? This was widely reported alongside the publication of the Keogh Report into standards of care at 14 NHS hospital trusts in England. TIM HARFORD finds out how so-called 'excess' deaths are calculated, and whether they're the best measure of hospital standards.

The shadow immigration minister Chris Bryant has warned that climate change is going to create 200 million more migrants. But More or Less discovers that migration experts disagree.

And, always down with the cool kids, Tim discovers more about this buzz phrase, 'big data'. Companies and governments are releasing large datasets about us, with our identities obscured, for the purposes of marketing - or even, occasionally, for the purposes of public understanding. But might those apparently anonymous datasets be telling the world our darkest secrets?

Have blundering doctors and nurses have really killed 13,000 people? This was widely reported alongside the publication of the Keogh Report into standards of care at 14 NHS hospital trusts in England.TIM HARFORD finds out how so-called 'excess' deaths are calculated, and whether they're the best measure of hospital standards.

Plus, have blundering doctors and nurses really killed 13,000 people? This was widely reported alongside the publication of the Keogh Report into standards of care at 14 NHS hospital trusts in England.TIM HARFORD finds out how so-called 'excess' deaths are calculated, and whether they're the best measure of hospital standards.

And, always down with the cool kids, Tim discovers more about this buzz phrase, big data. Companies and governments are releasing large datasets about us, with our identities obscured, for the purposes of marketing - or even, occasionally, for the purposes of public understanding. But might those apparently anonymous datasets be telling the world our darkest secrets?

Tim Harford queries the numbers of the badger cull, plus NHS deaths and climate migrants.

As global leaders remain divided on whether to carry out a military strike against Syria in response to the apparent use of chemical weapons against its people, TIM HARFORD looks at the different claims made about how many people have been killed. The United States, the UK and France are sharing intelligence, but all quote different estimates of how many people they think died in the attack by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces. Tim speaks to Kelly Greenhill, a professor of political science at Tufts University in the US, and co-author of Sex, Drugs and Body Counts about why the numbers vary so widely. And he speaks to Megan Price from the Human Rights Data Analysis Group who has been trying to keep a tally of the deaths in Syria since the conflict began.

The cost of care has forced a million families to sell their homes in the past five years, according to the Daily Telegraph. It's quoting research commissioned by NFU Mutual and carried out by ICM. But TIM HARFORD spots some tell-tale signs that the survey respondents may not all have been telling the truth.

What can statistics tell us about the safety of Super Puma helicopters, used by the offshore oil and gas industry? TIM HARFORD looks at the numbers, following a fatal accident off Shetland in August - the fifth incident involving Super Pumas in the North Sea since 2009.

Apparently, it's a fact that if there's one thing that's worse for you than drinking, scoffing bacon sandwiches and smoking 80 unfiltered cigarettes a day, it's being left-handed. Left-handers die on average several years earlier than right-handers. Or do they? Tim gets to the bottom of a sinister statistic with Professor Chris McManus, author of Right Hand, Left Hand.

More than 300,000 attempts were made to access pornographic websites at the Houses of Parliament in the past year, official records suggest. But with 15 attempts made in one month and almost 115,000 in another, the figures themselves raised an eyebrow at More or Less HQ - they just don't make sense. Tim speaks to Fergus Reid from Parliament's ICT team.

And finally, was Labour MP Fiona Mactaggart right to calculate that Britons have spent 76 centuries hanging on the phone to get through to government departments in just one year? She checks her sums.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford on conflict deaths, Super Pumas and whether left-handers die young.

How long can you wait until you try to have a baby? Psychologist Jean Twenge argues that women in their late thirties shouldn't be as anxious about their prospects as is commonly assumed. She's been amazed to discover that key fertility statistics come from studies based on people who lived several hundred years ago - before electricity was even invented. TIM HARFORD and Hannah Barnes find fertility experts agree that the modern woman's prospects are better than is often thought.

The economy's turning a corner, the Chancellor GEORGE OSBORNE says. Is that the case? TIM HARFORD takes a closer look at the numbers.

Almost a quarter of men in some Asian countries admit rape, it's been reported. The headlines have been sparked by a UN report, which looks at violence against women in parts of Asia. Are the numbers of rapists really this high? TIM HARFORD and Ruth Alexander look into the detail of the study.

Russia is rumoured to have dismissed Britain as a 'small island' who no one listens to. But, TIM HARFORD discovers, we're actually rather large, as islands go.

Africa has a drinking problem'. So says Time Magazine. More or Less discovers a more mixed picture. As fact-checking website Africa Check has noted, a closer look at the figures shows wide variations between countries and that a large proportion of African people are teetotal. However, TIM HARFORD finds that the figures also suggest that those who do drink are drinking a lot.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

How long can you wait until you try to have a baby? Psychologist Jean Twenge argues that women in their late thirties shouldn't be as anxious about their prospects as is commonly assumed. She's been amazed to discover that key fertility statistics come from studies based on people who lived several hundred years ago - before electricity was even invented.TIM HARFORD and Hannah Barnes find fertility experts agree that the modern woman's prospects are better than is often thought.

Africa has a drinking problem. So says Time Magazine. More or Less discovers a more mixed picture. As fact-checking website Africa Check has noted, a closer look at the figures shows wide variations between countries and that a large proportion of African people are teetotal. However, TIM HARFORD finds that the figures also suggest that those who do drink are drinking a lot.

'Tim Harford discusses fertility statistics, the GDP and Africa's 'drinking problem'.'

All pupils at infant schools in England are to get free school lunches from next September, the Deputy Prime Minister NICK CLEGG has announced. It follows a pilot study, which seemed to show that giving free food to primary school children was good for their academic performance. But TIM HARFORD discovers that a closer look at the evidence reveals the results were not that clear-cut.

I accept every time I get in my car, there's a 20% chance I could die'. It's a line from the Formula 1 hit film, Rush. Spoken by the racing driver Niki Lauda's character. Formula 1 was certainly a dangerous sport during the 1970s, but was it really that dangerous? More or Less looks at the data.

Is it true that it takes 1,000 years for a plastic bag to degrade? It's a popular claim, but More or Less finds the environmental facts about plastic bags are much less certain than that statistic suggests.

Do the health benefits of cycling outweigh the risk of injury? The Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University, DAVID SPIEGELHALTER, goes through the numbers.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

'Tim Harford on free school meals, the Formula 1 film Rush, plastic bags and cycling risk.'

Health service patients are 45% more likely to die in hospital than in the US, the news headlines read. The media were reporting the work of Professor Sir Brian Jarman from the Doctor Foster Intelligence Unit. But the claim has attracted criticism. Tim Harford looks into the story.

We just shut our eyes to the fact that the world's population is increasing out of control... and we owe it to future generations to face up to this.' Is Sir David Attenborough right about global population projections?

Scotland is home to 20% of the world's redheads, the BBC has reported. Hannah Barnes looks at whether the numbers add up.

Tim Harford tells the story of the Hawthorne Experiments, one of the most famous studies in industrial history - and one of the most misunderstood.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford looks at the claim that there are more hospital deaths in England than the US.

Are hundreds of young children visiting A&E because of alcohol? TIM HARFORD investigates.

Are hundreds of young children visiting A and E because of alcohol? Plus, an update on the Trumptonshire economy. And has the mosquito killed half the people who have ever lived?

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Eighty thousand children will wake up homeless on Christmas Day, according to the housing charity Shelter. Tim Harford explores this statistic.

It's been reported that there's a global wine shortage. But there seems to be plenty of wine available for the More or Less Christmas bash. Tim Harford fact-checks the claim.

Mathemagical mind-reading: Jolyon Jenkins, amateur magician and presenter of BBC Radio 4's Maths and Magic programme, reveals the maths behind a classic long-distance mind-reading card trick.

It's said that the four Christmas football fixtures are crucial to Premier League teams. But do the numbers back this up?

As Economics Editor Stephanie Flanders leaves the BBC, More or Less airs what is perhaps her finest broadcasting moment.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford on a Shelter statistic. Plus wine shortage, maths and magic, and football.

A guide to 2013 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees.

Contributors: DAVID SPIEGELHALTER, Winton professor for the public understanding of risk at Cambridge University; Linda Yueh, BBC chief business correspondent; SIMON SINGH, author of The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets; Dr Pippa Malmgren, president and founder of Principalis Asset Management; PAUL LEWIS; presenter of BBC Radio 4's Money Box programme; Dr Hannah Fry, Centre of the Advanced Spatial Analysis at University College London; Merryn Somerset-Webb, editor-in-chief of MoneyWeek; Helen Arney, comedian.

Producer: BEN CARTER

The most informative, revealing and idiosyncratic statistics of 2013, with Tim Harford.

Producer: Ben Carter.

'The most informative, revealing and idiosyncratic statistics of 2013, with Tim Harford.'

A guide to 2013 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees.

Contributors: DAVID SPIEGELHALTER, Winton professor for the public understanding of risk at Cambridge University; Linda Yueh, BBC chief business correspondent; SIMON SINGH, author of The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets; Dr Pippa Malmgren, president and founder of Principalis Asset Management; PAUL LEWIS; presenter of BBC Radio 4's Money Box programme; Dr Hannah Fry, Centre of the Advanced Spatial Analysis at University College London; Merryn Somerset-Webb, editor-in-chief of MoneyWeek; Helen Arney, comedian.

Producer: BEN CARTER

The most informative, revealing and idiosyncratic statistics of 2013, with Tim Harford.

Producer: Ben Carter.

When the government announced that fees charged by pension providers could be capped, many listeners were sceptical that the benefits could be as great as was being claimed. Money Box presenter Paul Lewis explains why the numbers do add up. And Tim Harford interviews Dr Matt Levy of UCL about the power of compound charges, and why people often find it so hard a mathematical concept to understand.

Are Christians 'by far the most persecuted religious body on the planet'? It's claimed that an average of 100,000 have died as martyrs every year for the past decade. The Vatican's called it a credible number. But is it? Ruth Alexander and Tim Harford fact-check the widely-quoted statistic.

Plus, the logic of imperial measures, as explored by Number Hub presenter Matt Parker; and is Britain's railway really Europe's 'most improved'?

Also, six cyclists were killed in just two weeks in London at the end of 2013. Does this statistic show dangers have increased for cyclists? Tim interviews Jody Aberdein, who has crunched the numbers for Significance Magazine (You can find the article Jody co-wrote with Professor David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2013.00715.x/pdf).

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford and Money Box's Paul Lewis show how small charges hit pension funds hard.

Tim Harford tries to find out why this is the week of the year in which most deaths occur. It's often thought that the spike in so-called 'excess' winter deaths is caused at least in part by the fact that some people living in poverty can't afford to turn up the central heating when freezing weather sets in. But Tim discovers the picture is much more complicated than that. He goes through the data with Claudia Wells from the Office for National Statistics, and Professor Rachel Vreeman of the Indiana University School of Medicine in the United States.

Are there really two million millionaire pensioners in the UK? The Intergenerational Foundation says two million over 60-year-olds are living in 'millionaire households' and, it argues, don't need their pensions protected by the government. Tim looks into the numbers.

Estimates of the death count in Iraq since the start of the war in 2003 range from 100,000 to one million. Tim explores why such a range exists and what methods are used to count those killed during war. And he discovers why the death count hasn't stopped Iraq's population growing by almost a third in that time. He speaks to Glen Rangwala from Cambridge University and Patrick Gerland from the UN's demographics team.

And after last week's abject apology from mathematician and comedian, Matt Parker, he is back to apologise for that apology. This time Tim makes him answer for the unforgiveable comments he made about the nautical mile.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Estimates that half the UK population will be obese by 2050 'underestimate' the problem, according to a report published this week by health campaigners, the National Obesity Forum. Tim Harford looks at the evidence, and discovers that health statistics contradict the report.

After the inquest into the fatal police shooting of Mark Duggan concluded, the Mayor of London Boris Johnson told the BBC that there had been about 10,000 armed police operations in the past four years in the capital, during which officers had fired on only six occasions . Tim Harford and Charlotte McDonald look at the numbers.

Britain has been gripped by 'the worst winter storms for 20 years', according to media reports. How scientific is this assessment? Tim Harford interviews Liz Bentley, from the Royal Meteorological Society.

Channel 4 documentary Benefits Street focuses on the residents of one street in Birmingham, and it's been proving controversial. The media reports that 90% of people living on the road in question, James Turner Street, are on benefits. But is this true? Gavin Fischer looks into the matter.

An apple-a-day will actually keep the doctors away, according to a study in the Christmas edition of the British Medical Journal. The authors had their tongue firmly in their cheek, but the media largely took them at their word. Tim interviews one of the study's authors and critic Paul Marantz.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford discovers that health data contradict a report which says obesity is worsening

Today, by the age of 60, more than twice as many women as men are single,' according to a recent article in The Guardian. 'Older men are often living with younger women, which is why twice as many young men as young women live alone,' author Lynne Segal wrote. Can this be right? Charlottle McDonald investigates.

Do two large glasses of wine triple your risk of mouth cancer, as claimed on an NHS leaflet spotted by a sceptical listener? TIM HARFORD examines the difficulties of extracting smoking from the equation.

Surprising as this may seem, one of the world's best tennis players of all time, Roger Federer, is also the worst ranked player on one scale. The scoring system makes it possible to lose a match despite winning more points, and Federer has lost the highest percentage of these types of games. Tim speaks to sports number-cruncher Ryan Rodenberg about why this might be the case.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

TIM HARFORD presents a detailed looked at the impact immigration has on the public purse.

Tim Harford presents the series that investigates the numbers in the news.

Today, by the age of 60, more than twice as many women as men are single, according to a recent article in The Guardian. Older men are often living with younger women, which is why twice as many young men as young women live alone, author Lynne Segal wrote. Can this be right? Charlottle McDonald investigates.

Labour say that in the three years where the 50p rate of tax was in place, it raised almost 10 billion pounds more for the Treasury than government estimates at the time captured. When he scrapped it, George Osborne said the total was only £300million. Who's right?

Meanwhile, the Labour party has been attacking the Government on the cost of living. It says wages are now down £1600 a year after inflation under David Cameron, while Conservative ministers say that 90% of people's wages have been increasing above the rate of inflation. So who is right?

How many guests should you invite to your wedding? It's a tricky problem. And one Damjan Vukcevic tried to solve with statistics when he was planning his marriage to his partner, Joan Ko. But with how much success? Tim Harford interviews the couple.

Disability benefits: Almost a million people who applied for sickness benefit have instead been found fit for work, the Department for Work and Pensions has announced. We put the numbers into context.

Cost of raising a child: Does it really cost nearly a quarter of a million pounds to raise a child from birth to the age of 21? That's a claim made by life insurance providers LV in their annual report. We examine the methodology behind their numbers.

Tim Harford looks at how much revenue the 50p rate of tax would raise.

Tim Harford and the More or Less team return for another series on Radio 4.

How much British law is made in Brussels? In the lead up to the European elections, UKIP have put the issue back in the spotlight with posters claiming it's 75%. Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg says it's 7%. Who's right? And how do we go about working out how much say the EU has in British law?

As the aerial search for the Malaysian Airlines plane missing in the Indian ocean is called off, could the statistical ideas of an 18th century Presbyterian minister help find the plane?

And it's 60 years since Sir Roger Bannister became the first man to run a mile in less than four minutes. Tim Harford speaks to Sir Roger to find out if four minutes really was seen as an 'impossible' barrier and debunk some myths surrounding his famous run.

How much British law is made in Brussels: is it UKIP's 75 per cent or Clegg's 7 per cent?

Are any of these numbers right? What do we really know about how many people are using food banks, and does this tell us anything about whether food poverty is increasing?

TIM HARFORD remembers Gary Becker, the Nobel prize winning economist who did more than anyone else to extend the tools of economic analysis to the problems of everyday life.

ALEX BELLOS tells the story of The Man Who Counted, a book of 'Arabic' mathematical tales. The book's author became a superstar in Brazil, but he also had a surprising story of his own.

And was Roger Bannister really the first person to run a four minute mile, or did 18th century fruit and vegetable seller James Parrott beat him to it? We hear the case in Parrott's favour from a former Olympic sprinter with a passion for 18th Century running statistics.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

Are one million people really using food banks in Britain? Tim Harford investigates.

With Take That singer Gary Barlow in hot water over tax avoidance, Tim Harford looks at the numbers to see if there's any truth in the post that's been doing the rounds on social media suggesting HMRC employs only 300 people to chase £70bn of tax evasion, while the DWP employs 3250 people to chase £1.2bn of benefits fraud?

Did the number of people around the world living in extreme poverty fall by half a few weeks ago?That's one interpretation of newly released figures for purchasing power parity around the world, but does it stack up? Should the World Bank be lowering its global poverty estimates?

Forget Conchita and the Polish milkmaids, the most exciting thing about Eurovision this year is that they've released more data than ever before! We crunch the numbers to find out what the results would have been if only the public had their say.

What are the chances of winning one of Willy Wonka's coveted 'Golden Tickets'? One More or Less listener's 9-year-old daughter wanted to know, so we sent Rob Eastaway to explain probability to her school class.

And Boris Johnson recently claimed there are 400,000 French people living in London. He also likes to say that he's the mayor of the 6th biggest French city on earth. But as we find out, the real numbers are rather less flattering to Boris's Gallic mayoral pretensions.

Does the government have far more people chasing benefits cheats than tax dodgers?

UKIP have put concerns about Romanian crime back in the news. TIM HARFORD investigates whether the statistics they're quoting are accurate. And what about the broader point - is it true that Romanians are responsible for more crime than other nationalities?

We discuss a famous probability puzzle involving goats and game shows with German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Is he right to suggest in his new book 'Risk Savvy' that we really don't understand risk and uncertainty.

Is it true, as our listeners heard on the Today programme, that globally 24,000 people die every year from lightning strikes?

~More Or Less listeners also test their analytical abilities on another problem - how old will you be before you're guaranteed to celebrate a major, round-number birthday (like 40 or 50) on a weekend?

And is the divorce rate in the US state of Maine linked to margarine consumption? It sounds ridiculous, but you might be tempted to believe it if you saw the graphs side by side. It's one of many pairs of statistics featured on the 'Spurious Correlations' website started recently by Tyler Vigen. We talk to him about some of the funniest correlations he's found and the serious point he's trying to make.

UKIP have put concerns about Romanian crime back in the news.TIM HARFORD investigates whether the statistics they're quoting are accurate. And what about the broader point - is it true that Romanians are responsible for more crime than other nationalities?

But the Financial Times claims to have found significant problems with Piketty's data on wealth, and says this undermines his claims about rising inequality. TIM HARFORD examines the FT's claims and Thomas Piketty's response.

Is there any truth to the catchy 'statistic' doing the rounds that there's as much land given over to golf courses as housing in England. More or Less gets out the tape measure and sizes up the country's fairways and putting greens, its rooftops and gardens to find out.

And we examine two stories in the news this week - is racism on the rise in Britain, and should we be concerned that several young men who have died recently were players of the video game Call of Duty?

(Image: Best Selling Economist Author Thomas Piketty Speaks At UC Berkeley. Credit: Getty Images)

TIM HARFORD investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

But the Financial Times claims to have found significant problems with Piketty's data on wealth, and says this undermines his claims about rising inequality.TIM HARFORD examines the FT's claims and Thomas Piketty's response.

Did French economist Thomas Piketty get his numbers wrong?

We return to a 'zombie' statistic that's risen again after being struck down on the programme earlier this year. The claim that each year 100,000 Christians are martyred around the world wasn't true when we looked at it in January, but that didn't stop The Times featuring it in a recent editorial.

Freakonomics guru Stephen Levitt joins us to talk about an unusual experiment - getting people to agree to make major life decisions based on the toss of a coin. Is this really good social science? And what do the results tell us about decision making and happiness?

And it's World Cup Office Sweepstake time, so TIM HARFORD peels the probability onion to help a listener decide the ideal sweepstake strategy, and lifts the lid on our own office sweepstake design.

TIM HARFORD investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

What will the referendum result mean for Scots' wallets?

We return to a 'zombie' statistic that's risen again after being struck down on the programme earlier this year. The claim that each year 100,000 Christians are martyred around the world wasn't true when we looked at it in January, but that didn't stop The Times featuring it in a recent editorial.

Freakonomics guru Stephen Levitt joins us to talk about an unusual experiment - getting people to agree to make major life decisions based on the toss of a coin. Is this really good social science? And what do the results tell us about decision making and happiness?

And it's World Cup Office Sweepstake time, so TIM HARFORD peels the probability onion to help a listener decide the ideal sweepstake strategy, and lifts the lid on our own office sweepstake design.

TIM HARFORD investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

What will the referendum result mean for Scots' wallets?

Religion Makes People More Generous'- That's how The Daily Telegraph reported a new BBC poll on charitable giving. Tim Harford investigates whether there is a link between practising a religion and whether we give.

Big data has been enjoying a lot of hype, with promises it will help deliver everything from increased corporate profits to better healthcare. While the potential is certainly there, is the hype blinding us to some basic statistical lessons learned over the past two hundred years?

And with 365 days in the year, it feels like a huge coincidence when we meet someone with the same birthday. But you only need 23 people to have a better than even chance that two will share a birthday. Alex Bellos tests out this counter-intuitive result, known as the birthday paradox, on the perfect real-word data-set - all 32 squads of 23 players at the World Cup.

Is there a link between practising a religion and donating to charity?

Media reports are suggesting that as many as 12,000 people may have Ebola in West Africa, but experts tell More or Less that's not the case. It's also said that Ebola kills up to 90% of victims, but while that's true of one outbreak, the death rate in other Ebola outbreaks has varied widely. TIM HARFORD and Ruth Alexander look at what we know about how dangerous Ebola is, how bad the latest outbreak is, what factors might influence whether people survive once they're infected, and how likely it is that there might be an outbreak of the virus in the UK.

Have 25% of guide dogs in London been hit by a cyclist? TIM HARFORD fact-checks the numbers behind a questionable headline.

The Justice Secretary Chris Grayling has said an 'unexpected' rise in the prison population is in part driven by 700 more sex offenders being sentenced this year than last. But is this really what's driving the numbers? TIM HARFORD speaks to Carol Hedderman, visiting scholar in criminology at University Of Cambridge.

Internet rumours abound that 10,600 people have died within six weeks of being pronounced fit to work. But the numbers are not quite all they seem. TIM HARFORD takes a close look at them with Tom Chivers of The Daily Telegraph.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Media reports are suggesting that as many as 12,000 people may have Ebola in West Africa, but experts tell More or Less that's not the case. It's also said that Ebola kills up to 90% of victims, but while that's true of one outbreak, the death rate in other Ebola outbreaks has varied widely.TIM HARFORD and Ruth Alexander look at what we know about how dangerous Ebola is, how bad the latest outbreak is, what factors might influence whether people survive once they're infected, and how likely it is that there might be an outbreak of the virus in the UK.

Internet rumours abound that 10,600 people have died within six weeks of being pronounced fit to work. But the numbers are not quite all they seem.TIM HARFORD takes a close look at them with Tom Chivers of The Daily Telegraph.

'Tim Harford scrutinises claims made about the outbreak. Plus guide dogs, prisons and ATOS.'

Investigating the numbers in the news with Tim Harford.

He looks at Ed Balls sleight of hand in his speech to the Labour Party Conference with Carl Emmerson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Is Ed Miliband's promise on NHS funding really worse than the funding increases delivered by MARGARET THATCHER? Tim asks John Appleby Chief Economist at The think-tank The Kings Fund.

And how do we know how far away is the sun really is? Astrophysicist, Andrew Pontzen from University College London explains all.

TIM HARFORD explains the Barnett Formula and asks why it is so maligned.

Tim Harford and guests look back at some of the weird and wonderful numbers of 2014. Featuring contributions from Evan Davis, Sir David Spiegelhalter, Helen Joyce, Nick Robinson, Helen Arney, Pippa Malmgren, Paul Lewis and Carlos Vilalta.

'Tim Harford and guests look back at some of the weird and wonderful numbers of 2014. Featuring contributions from Evan Davis, Sir David Spiegelhalter, Helen Joyce, Nick Robinson, Helen Arney, Pippa Malmgren, Paul Lewis and Carlos Vilalta.'

Are 95% of hate crimes in the UK directed against Jewish people? TIM HARFORD and Ruth Alexander fact-check an unlikely statistic. Meanwhile the Campaign Against Anti-Semitism (CAA) says surveys show that almost half of adults believe at least one anti-Semitic statement shown them to be true and that half of British Jews believe Jews may have no long-term future in the UK. But how robust are these findings? More or Less speaks to Gideon Falter, chairman of the CAA and Jonathan Boyd, executive director of the Institute for Jewish Policy Research.

Who is in the global 1% of wealthiest people, and where do they live?

More than 200 of the MPS voting on the 2012 NHS reform have recent or current financial connections to private healthcare, a recent editorial in the British Medical Journal claimed. Richard Vadon and Keith Moore explain why it's not true.

Sixty bodies in 6 years - is a serial killer stalking the canals of Great Manchester? Hannah Moore investigates a theory first raised by the Star on Sunday's crime editor Scott Hesketh.

Plus the programme hears from Professor Carlos Vilalta from the University of California San Diego and Steven Dudley from Insight Crime about claims that 98% of homicides in Mexico are unsolved. A shocking statistic, but is it true?

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

TIM HARFORD investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

Tim Harford asks if the majority of hate crime in the UK is directed against Jewish people

Plus the programme hears from Professor Carlos Vilalta from the University of California San Diego and Steven Dudley from Insight Crime about claims that '98% of homicides in Mexico are unsolved.' A shocking statistic, but is it true?

DAVID CAMERON says that the Conservatives have created 1000 jobs for every day they've been in office. Is this true?

Do dairy farmers make a loss on each litre of milk that they produce, as is often claimed? CHARLOTTE SMITH from Farming Today talks us through the numbers.

England cricketer Stuart Broad has prompted anger after tweeting: I've heard if you earn minimum wage in England you're in the top 10% earners in the world. #stay #humble. More or Less considers whether this is true or not.

The UK's unhappiest workers are retail staff and teachers, reported the Guardian this week. Really?

How to use maths to find your life partner, with Matt Parker, author of Things to Make and Do in the Fourth Dimension.

And, what are the chances that two friends, given the same due date for their babies' birth, actually do give birth on the same day? Tim discusses the reliability - or otherwise- of pregnancy due dates with Professor Jason Gardosi of the Perinatal Institute.

About one-third of American girls become pregnant as teenagers a New York Times article claimed. More or Less asks if this is true and looks at the long-term pregnancy trends in developed countries.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

TIM HARFORD investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

England cricketer Stuart Broad has prompted anger after tweeting: 'I've heard if you earn minimum wage in England you're in the top 10% earners in the world. #stay #humble.' More or Less considers whether this is true or not.

How to use maths to find your life partner, with Matt Parker, author of 'Things to Make and Do in the Fourth Dimension'.

About one-third of American girls become pregnant as teenagers' a New York Times article claimed. More or Less asks if this is true and looks at the long-term pregnancy trends in developed countries.

Has the new tuition fees regime saved money? Newsnight's Chris Cook talks Tim through the numbers.

Is infidelity among cruise ship passengers rife?

How many political seats are genuinely safe? David Cowling, editor of BBC Political Research, looks at the numbers.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news and in life.

How have the political parties used statistics in their election campaigns?

On the eve of the UK's general election, TIM HARFORD examines some of the biggest statistics discussed by politicians in their campaigns. From zero hours contracts to the benefits of scrapping non-dom tax status, we attempt to demystify and unpick some of the figures behind a number of policies announced. Plus, how will people vote on the night? We give our thoughts on trends to watch for on the night.

How much sex do we have? DAVID SPIEGELHALTER explains the bedroom habits of the British - what are we doing, how often, and has it changed?

Have 40% of newly qualified teachers quit after their first year of work? This is a statistic that was widely reported earlier this year that gives the impression that teaching profession is suffering a crisis. But do the figures really suggest this dramatic exodus of new teachers?

Series that investigates the numbers in the news. Presented by Tim Harford.

Tim Harford asks if people admitted to hospital at weekends are more likely to die.

Seven Day NHS.

As a commitment appears in the Queen's Speech to introduce a 'truly seven day-a-week NHS' we look at David Cameron's assertion that mortality rates are 16% higher for people admitted on a Sunday over those admitted on a Wednesday. And is seven day working really about saving lives.

Productivity?

We're told we have a productivity problem in the UK. What is it, how is it measured and why is it so low in the UK compared to other economies. We get an economist to explain the answers to a listener.

Animal Slaughter

How many animals are killed each day for food? One claim suggested it was half a billion worldwide, which sounds like a lot to us. Are we really pigging out to such an extent? Are we all so hungry we could all eat a horse? Or is this just a load of bull?

John Nash

The mathematician and scientist, Nobel Laureate and subject of the film a beautiful mind was killed in car accident earlier this month. We look at why he was so important to game theory with the economist Peyton Young.

Is the World Cup really responsible for the deaths of 1200 migrant workers in Qatar? We talk to the International Trade Unions Confederation who first published the figure.

The Independent on Sunday had a front page splash this week making a link betwen the HPV vaccine and one girls serious illness. They article also says that the number of cases of serious side-effects from the HPV vaccine being reported to the MHRA are much higher compared to other vaccines. The Independent have defended their journalism but we have spoken to a doctor who says the article cherry picks data and should be withdrawn.

We tell the story behind the chocolate experiment designed to deliberately fool the press.

And we solve the fiendish GCSE question that perplexed students so much it became a trend on Twitter.

Series that investigates the numbers in the news. Presented by Tim Harford.

The Independent on Sunday had a front page splash this week making a link between the HPV vaccine and one girls serious illness. They article also says that the number of cases of serious side-effects from the HPV vaccine being reported to the MHRA are much higher compared to other vaccines. The Independent have defended their journalism but we have spoken to a doctor who says the article cherry picks data and should be withdrawn.

Tim Harford asks if the World Cup is really responsible for migrant deaths in Qatar.

Producer:Joe Kent.

Editor: Richard Vadon.

Tim Harford looks at the numbers to tell the story of the Greek crisis.

A 'swarm' of migrants heading for Europe? Are the numbers really up?

There is a swarm of migrants coming into Europe according to the Prime Minister. Where are they coming from and how many are coming to Calais to try to get into Britain? Are 70 percent of migrants in Calais making it to the UK, as claimed in the Daily Mail? We scrutinise the numbers.

Worm wars

A debate has been raging over the last month about the benefits of mass deworming projects. Hugely popular with the UN and charities, the evidence behind the practice has come under attack. Are the criticisms justified? We hear from the different sides - both economists and epidemiologists.

Football

How useful are football predictions and should we always trust the so called experts? The More or Less team look into the idea that predicting where sides will finish in the Premier League is best based on how they performed in previous seasons. Also, why is Leicester City the most watched Premier League team in the Outer Hebrides?

Generations

Loyal Listener Neil asks: So much is currently reported as the best, worst, least certain 'in a generation' - but just how long is that?

We find out..

(Image: Migrants arrive on the beach of a Greek island. Credit: AFP/Getty)

There is a 'swarm' of migrants coming into Europe according to the Prime Minister. Where are they coming from and how many are coming to Calais to try to get into Britain? Are 70 percent of migrants in Calais making it to the UK, as claimed in the Daily Mail? We scrutinise the numbers.

Diabetes

We heard earlier this week that there had been a 60% rise in the number of cases of diabetes in the last ten years. But is there actually some good news in these figures?

Odd (attempted) burglaries

Police in Leicestershire have been sending forensic teams only to attempted burglaries at houses with even numbers. The papers reported it as a scandal driven by money-saving. But was it in fact a sensible attempt to work out how best to deploy tight resources?

Men who pay for sex

Do one in 10 men regularly pay for sex, as a Channel 4 Documentary claimed recently?

Loop

The ancient Greeks saw magic in the geometry of an ellipse and now mathematical writer Alex Bellos has but this to use in a new variant of pool.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

Can you rely on non-voters

During the election for the leadership of the Labour Party in the UK Jeremy Corbyn has whipped up unprecedented support among grass roots activists pushing him into a surprising lead. Bernie Sanders the left-wing Democratic candidate has done the same energised grass roots support in the United States in a similar way. Their supporters believe in both cases they can shake up the political mainstream and convince non-voters to turn out at the ballot box. But is this a wise strategy?

The latest on deaths for people admitted at a weekend?

Reports suggested 11,000 are dying in hospital after being admitted at the weekend but what does the report actually say?

Too dense

Is the UK already more densely populated than other places in Europe and is this a good argument against taking more refugees.

How many houses do we need?

We're told that we need to build 200,000+ houses a year to meet housing need in this country. We talk to Kate Barker the woman who first came up with this number about where it comes from and what it means.

How many bananas will kill you?

There's a belief among some people that too many bananas will kill you. Eat too many and you will overdose on potassium and die. But how many bananas would you need to eat?

Can the left rely on non-voters to get them into power? Tim Harford looks at the numbers.

Tim Harford looks back at some of the most interesting numbers behind the news in 2015.

Tim Harford looks back at some of the most interesting numbers behind the news in 2015, from the migrant crisis to social media messages.

Contributors include: Professor Jane Green, Helen Arney, Paul Lewis, Andrew Samson, Leonard Doyle , Peter Cunliffe-Jones, Farai Chideya, Claire Melamed and Professor John Allen Paulos.

Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt said this week that if you have a stroke at the weekends, you're 20% more likely to die. But is that true? We look at the evidence.

Are you more likely to win prizes with newer Premium Bonds? We ask Radio 4's Money Box presenter Paul Lewis if there is any truth in this.

A few weeks ago many newspapers were reporting that alcohol was the cause of 70% of Accident and Emergency attendances over the weekends. Did the newspapers misunderstand the research?

Why was the polling in the run up to the General Election last year so wrong? We speak to Professor John Curtice, lead author on a report using the 2015 British Social Attitudes Survey to see if they could come up with better data.

There is great excitement over rumours that one of the predictions Einstein made in his theory of General Relativity has finally been observed. We ask UCL physicist Dr Andrew Pontzen why this is big news.

Plus, is the air in Beijing is so bad that it's like smoking 40 cigarettes a day? We investigate.

New alcohol guidelines were issued recently which lowered the number of units recommended for safe drinking. But are the benefits and harms of alcohol being judged correctly? We speak to Professor David Speigelhalter and

Sepsis - do 44,000 people die of it a year? Is it the country's second biggest killer? We speak to Dr Marissa Mason about the difficulties of knowing the numbers.

Dan Bouk tells the story of a statistician who crept around graveyards in South Carolina at the turn of the century recording how long people lived - all to help out an insurance firm.

It's from his book 'How our days became numbered' - looking at how data from insurance company has shaped knowledge about our lives.

Have refugees caused a gender imbalance in Sweden or is there something funny going on? It has been reported that there are 123 boys for every 100 girls aged between 16 and 17 in Sweden. In China, the ratio is 117 boys to 100 girls. We explore if the numbers add up and why this might be.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Are there problems with the way we judge the harms from alcohol? Tim Harford finds out.

Do e-cigarettes make quitting smoking more difficult?

Research last month claimed to show that e-cigarettes harm your chances of quitting smoking. The paper got coverage world-wide but it also came in for unusually fierce criticism from academics who spend their lives trying to help people quit. It's been described as 'grossly misleading' and 'not scientific'. We look at what is wrong with the paper and ask if it should have been published in the first place.

A campaign of dodgy statistics

Are American presidential hopefuls getting away with statistical murder? We speak to Angie Drobnic, Editor of the US fact-checking website Politifact, about the numbers politicians are using - which are not just misleading, but wrong.

Will missing a week of school affect your GCSE results?

Recently education minister Nick Gibb said that missing a week of school could affect a pupil's GCSE grades by a quarter. We examine the evidence and explore one of the first rules of More or Less - 'correlation is not causation'. We interview Stephen Gorard, Professor of Education at Durham University.

What are the chances that a father and two of his children share the same birthday?

A loyal listener got in touch to find out how rare an occurrence this is. Professor David Spiegelhalter from the University of Cambridge explains the probabilities involved.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

Tim Harford investigates whether e-cigarettes harm people's chances of quitting.

Does the European Union dedicate 26,911 words to cabbage regulation?

Could there really be 26,911 words of European Union regulation dedicated to the sale of cabbage? This figure is often used by those arguing there is too much bureaucracy in the EU. But we trace its origins back to 1940s America. It wasn't true then, and it isn't true today. So how did this cabbage myth grow and spread? And what is the real number of words relating to the sale of cabbages in the EU?

After the recent announcement that all schools would be converted to academies, a number of listeners have asked us to look into the evidence of how they perform. Education Secretary Nicky Morgan wrote a guest post on Mumsnet and More or Less were called upon to check her numbers.

The popular TV show The Only Way is Essex claimed in its 200th episode that it had contributed more than a billion pounds to the UK economy. We investigate if this is true.

Plus, can we trust food surveys? Stories about which foods are good and bad for you, which foods are linked to cancer and which have beneficial qualities are always popular. But how do experts know what people are eating? Tim Harford speaks to Christie Aschwanden, FiveThirtyEight's lead writer for science, about the pitfalls of food surveys. She kept a food diary and answered nutrition surveys and found many of the questions were really hard to answer.

Paternity Leave

This week it was claimed that only 1 percent of men are taking up the option of shared parental leave - a new provision that came into force a year ago. A number of media outlets covered the story, interviewing experts about why there was such a low take-up. But in reality the figures used are deeply flawed and cannot be used to prove such a statement.

Exponential Love

I love you twice as much today as yesterday, but half as much as tomorrow. - This is the inscription on a card that teacher Kyle Evans once saw in a card from his father to his mother. But if that was true, what would it have meant over the course of their relationship? Kyle takes us through a musical exploration of what exponential love would look like. The item is based on a performance he gave for a regional heat of Cheltenham Festivals Famelab - a competition trying to explain science in an engaging way.

The cost of the EU

One of our listeners spotted a comparison made this week between the UK's contribution to the EU and a sandwich. One blogger says it's like buying a £3 sandwich with a £5 note, and getting over a £1,000 in change. We look at the figures on how much the UK pays to the EU, and what it gets back.

The story of 'average

In the 1600s astronomers were coming up with measurements to help sailors read their maps with a compass. But with all the observations of the skies they were making, how did they choose the best number? We tell the story of how astronomers started to find the average from a group of numbers. By the 1800s, one Belgian astronomer began to apply it to all sorts of social and national statistics - and the 'Average Man' was born.

And we set a little maths problem to solve...

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Have only 1 per cent of men taken the option of shared parental leave?

I love you twice as much today as yesterday, but half as much as tomorrow.' - This is the inscription on a card that teacher Kyle Evans once saw in a card from his father to his mother. But if that was true, what would it have meant over the course of their relationship? Kyle takes us through a musical exploration of what exponential love would look like. The item is based on a performance he gave for a regional heat of Cheltenham Festivals Famelab - a competition trying to explain science in an engaging way.

A number of people have asked the team if more famous people have died this year compared to other years. It's a hard one to measure - but we have had a go at some back of the envelope calculations with data from Who's Who and BBC obituaries. Is the intuitive feeling that more people have died this year misplaced?

What British Muslims really think' poll

This week many news outlets covered polling research carried out for a documentary on Channel 4. Some of the points that came out included that half of all British Muslims think homosexuality should be illegal and that 23% want Sharia Law. But how representative are these views? We speak to Anthony Wells from the blog UK Polling Report who explains the difficulties of carrying out polling.

The number of Brits abroad

Figures released this week suggested that there was an increase in the number of people coming to the UK from other parts of Europe. But many listeners have been asking - how many Brits are living in other parts of Europe? We try to find the best figures available.

European Girls Maths Olympiad

In 2012 a new international maths competition was started at the University of Cambridge. It was a chance for female students to get a chance of meeting girls from other countries and try to solve hard maths problems, as they are under represented at most other international competitions. We hear about how the competition got started in celebration of this year's competition in Romania.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Short clip of Alan Rickman from Sense and Sensibility, Columbia Pictures.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Have more famous people died this year than usual?

This week there was much debate over the Treasury report which modelled how leaving the EU would affect the economy. Tim Harford speaks to the Spectator's Fraser Nelson about how the document was presented to the public, and how it was reported. Chris Giles of the Financial Times explains that there are useful points to take from the Treasury's analysis.

Hinckley Point nuclear power station

What is the most expensive object ever built? The environmental charity Greenpeace has claimed it is set to be the most expensive object on Earth. But could it really cost more to build than the Great Pyramids? We take a look at some of the most costly building projects on the planet.

Chances of serving on a jury

A listener in Scotland is curious to know what the chances are of being selected for jury service. Several of his family members have received summons, but he has not. We look at who is eligible to serve, and what your odds are of receiving a summons.

European Girls Maths Olympiad

Last week we told the story of how the European Girls Maths Olympiad (EGMO) came into being. We followed the UK team on their recent journey to Romania to compete against 38 other teams from Europe and around the world.

Life expectancy of a Pope

In 2014 Pope Francis alluded to the fact he didn't expect to live more than another two or three years. A group of statisticians have taken a look at the life expectancy of popes over the centuries and decided that he may have been rather pessimistic.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Do the Treasury's Brexit numbers add up?

What is the most expensive 'object' ever built? The environmental charity Greenpeace has claimed it is set to be the most expensive object on Earth. But could it really cost more to build than the Great Pyramids? We take a look at some of the most costly building projects on the planet.

Tim Harford returns with Brexit, Trumpton, the Antiques Roadshow and some good news.

The Waitrose Effect

Many news outlets have reported this week that a Waitrose supermarket pushes up house prices in the surrounding area. It's based on research that also suggests that other supermarkets have a similar but smaller effect. We take a highly sceptical look at the correlation.

Statistics and the EU referendum campaign

We look at how the two campaigns, the media, and the much-discussed experts used statistics during the EU referendum campaign. Tim Harford interviews Will Moy, director of Fullfact, and Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

BBC One's Antiques Roadshow is a hugely popular television programme, where experts examine and value antiques and collectables. We ask whether the items featured really jump in value, or are we just seeing the price tag rise over the centuries in line with inflation? More Or Less reporter Charlotte McDonald heads down to the show to find out.

Computer Science and Socks

Tim Harford speaks to Brian Christian, co-author of 'Algorithms to Live by: The Computer Science of Human Decisions'. How can the techniques of computer science help us in every-day situations? And, most importantly, which algorithm will help our reporter Jordan Dunbar sort out his socks?

We look at how the two campaigns, the media, and the much-discussed 'experts' used statistics during the EU referendum campaign. Tim Harford interviews Will Moy, director of Fullfact, and Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

'Tim Harford returns with Brexit, Trumpton, the Antiques Roadshow and some good news.'

Series that investigates the numbers in the news.

Is wildlife in decline?

Wildlife populations have plummeted by 58% since 1970, it has been reported. And if we continue this way the decline will be 67% 2020. But do these numbers stand up to scrutiny – can you really put a figure on wildlife decline and call it robust? Last time we looked at this topic we found problems. Have they been fixed?

Parliamentary seat boundaries

There have been many criticisms about the way the Boundary Commission has redrawn UK parliamentary seat boundaries. We look at what the critics have to say and see how the political parties may be affected.

Desk of Good News – women in parliament

The number of women in parliaments around the world is on the rise!

Escobar’s Cocaine Deaths

Pablo Escobar was one of the world’s most infamous drug traffickers. His story has been brought to life in the Netflix TV drama series ‘Narcos’. We find out the deadly truth behind the numbers in the Netflix series and the realities of Colombia’s drug trade in the early nineties.

Photo: DONALD TRUMP at a Campaign Rally. Credit Darren McCollester/Getty

How the presidential hopeful has used statistics

The fact-checkers have been working overtime looking into the numbers used by Donald Trump during his campaign to become President of the USA. In the wake of the election next week, we take a look at some of Trump's more outrageous statistical claims.

Escobar's Cocaine Deaths

Pablo Escobar was one of the world's most infamous drug traffickers. His story has been brought to life in the Netflix TV drama series ‘Narcos'. We find out the deadly truth behind the numbers in the Netflix series and the realities of Colombia's drug trade in the early nineties.

The fact-checkers have been working overtime looking into the numbers used by DONALD TRUMP during his campaign to become President of the USA. In the wake of the election next week, we take a look at some of Trump?s more outrageous statistical claims.

Wildlife populations have plummeted by 58% since 1970, it has been reported. And if we continue this way the decline will be 67% 2020. But do these numbers stand up to scrutiny ? can you really put a figure on wildlife decline and call it robust? Last time we looked at this topic we found problems. Have they been fixed?

Desk of Good News ? women in parliament

Escobar?s Cocaine Deaths

Pablo Escobar was one of the world?s most infamous drug traffickers. His story has been brought to life in the Netflix TV drama series ?Narcos?. We find out the deadly truth behind the numbers in the Netflix series and the realities of Colombia?s drug trade in the early nineties.

Pablo Escobar was one of the world's most infamous drug traffickers. His story has been brought to life in the Netflix TV drama series ?Narcos?. We find out the deadly truth behind the numbers in the Netflix series and the realities of Colombia's drug trade in the early nineties.

We go behind the numbers to explore the election map.

On Tuesday Americans went to the polls for a number of House races and to choose the next President of the United States. We go behind the numbers to explore the election map. Who voted, and for which candidate? And what does it tell us?

Stray Cats

Are there nine million stray cats in the UK? If so, this would significantly out-number the 7.4m pet cats in the country. We were highly sceptical of this number and by using statistics we explain why it can’t be true.

Oliver Hart interview

The Nobel memorial prize in economics was recently awarded to Oliver Hart. He talks to Tim Harford about his work on incomplete contracts. He explains how people drawing up a contract to work together can never foresee every eventuality – and what can be done about it.

Puzzles

Alex Bellos explains the history behind the fashion in broadcasting for setting brain teasers for the public. Plus – we set our own brainMornings [radio Scotland]

Alex Bellos explains the history behind the fashion in broadcasting for setting brain teasers for the public. Plus – we set our own brain teaser for to work out.

Image: Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton on the campaign trail. Photo credit: Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

Are there nine million stray cats in the UK? If so, this would significantly out-number the 7.4m pet cats in the country. We were highly sceptical of this number and by using statistics we explain why it can't be true.

Are there nine million stray cats in the UK? If so, this would significantly out-number the 7.4m pet cats in the country. We were highly sceptical of this number and by using statistics we explain why it can?t be true.

The Nobel memorial prize in economics was recently awarded to Oliver Hart. He talks to Tim Harford about his work on incomplete contracts. He explains how people drawing up a contract to work together can never foresee every eventuality ? and what can be done about it.

Alex Bellos explains the history behind the fashion in broadcasting for setting brain teasers for the public. Plus ? we set our own brainMornings [radio Scotland]

Alex Bellos explains the history behind the fashion in broadcasting for setting brain teasers for the public. Plus ? we set our own brain teaser for to work out.

Oliver Hart interview

The Nobel memorial prize in economics was recently awarded to Oliver Hart. He talks to Tim Harford about his work on incomplete contracts. He explains how people drawing up a contract to work together can never foresee every eventuality – and what can be done about it.

The chocolate muffin puzzle

Last week we set a puzzle for listeners. Two members of the team ate a chocolate muffin... but which of them has crumbs on their face? Mathematician Alex Bellos gives us the solution.

Immigration and Brexit

Some people have argued that the EU Referendum was really a vote on immigration. But was it? We look at polling data to see if we can gauge what the public thinks about immigration. We find it to be a complicated answer.

Image: A woman suffering from Alzheimer's (Photo Credit: Sebastien Bozon/Getty)

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

The official statistics for England and Wales appear to show a rise in the number of people dying from dementia. But what does that mean? Do more people have dementia? We explore what's going on behind the numbers.

The official statistics for England and Wales appear to show a rise in the number of people dying from dementia. But what does that mean? Do more people have dementia? We explore what?s going on behind the numbers.

The Nobel memorial prize in economics was recently awarded to Oliver Hart. He talks to Tim Harford about his work on incomplete contracts. He explains how people drawing up a contract to work together can never foresee every eventuality ? and what can be done about it.

High-rolling pensioners?

In Philip Hammond’s Autumn Statement he said that: “We will meet our pledge to our country’s pensioners through the triple lock.?? This should ensure that the state pension continues to rise. However, are pensioners the ones struggling with stagnant incomes? We speak to the Institute for Fiscal Studies about who has a higher income – the retired or those working.

Predicting Norovirus outbreaks

The Food Standards Agency has been using Twitter to predict outbreaks of the ‘winter vomiting bug’. They want to warn the public as cases of Norovirus start to rise, rather than after they have seen a peak in lab reports. Dr Sian Thomas explains how social media can help.

Finding friends at a club

Have you ever been in a nightclub or festival and lost your friends? One PhD student has been modelling your options on finding them. Nathan Cunningham explains whether you should actively search for them, or stay put. We send out one of the team to try it out.

Air pollution deaths

Are 40,000 people dying a year in the UK from air pollution? Is breathing the air in London the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day? These are a couple of claims that have been in the news and shared online recently. We speak to Professor Anthony Frew from the Royal Sussex County Hospital about understanding the risks of air pollution.

Image: Pensioner playing the slot machines in a casino. Credit: John Moore/Getty

High-rolling pensioners, predicting norovirus, finding friends, and air pollution.

In Philip Hammond's Autumn Statement he said that: “We will meet our pledge to our country's pensioners through the triple lock.?? This should ensure that the state pension continues to rise. However, are pensioners the ones struggling with stagnant incomes? We speak to the Institute for Fiscal Studies about who has a higher income – the retired or those working.

The Food Standards Agency has been using Twitter to predict outbreaks of the ‘winter vomiting bug'. They want to warn the public as cases of Norovirus start to rise, rather than after they have seen a peak in lab reports. Dr Sian Thomas explains how social media can help.

In Philip Hammond?s Autumn Statement he said that: ?We will meet our pledge to our country?s pensioners through the triple lock.?? This should ensure that the state pension continues to rise. However, are pensioners the ones struggling with stagnant incomes? We speak to the Institute for Fiscal Studies about who has a higher income ? the retired or those working.

The Food Standards Agency has been using Twitter to predict outbreaks of the ?winter vomiting bug?. They want to warn the public as cases of Norovirus start to rise, rather than after they have seen a peak in lab reports. Dr Sian Thomas explains how social media can help.

In Philip Hammond's Autumn Statement he said that: ?We will meet our pledge to our country's pensioners through the triple lock.?? This should ensure that the state pension continues to rise. However, are pensioners the ones struggling with stagnant incomes? We speak to the Institute for Fiscal Studies about who has a higher income ? the retired or those working.

The BBC series ‘Who do you think you are?’ has traced the ancestors of the actor Danny Dyer, famous for parts in Eastenders and many films. The programme revealed that he is in fact related to Edward III. But how unusual is that? We look at the odds of someone with English heritage being descended from this medieval king who died in 1377.

How many cows for a fiver?

The news that products from cows have been used to make the new five pound notes has caused consternation. Vice News have tried to work out statistically how many animals must have died in order to make these new notes in circulation. It is a very low number.

Five year olds not so bad after all

‘Shocking’ stats were revealed this week by the Department of Education. School assessments showed that just under a third of five year olds were below the expected standards for children of their age. But not only are these results not that shocking there is another reason why the statistics are not all they seem.

How to wrap a football

Christmas is approaching and Tim Harford has a puzzling present-related question – what’s the best way to wrap a spherical object? Fortunately mathematician Hannah Fry has been thinking about this and gives her best thoughts on how to tackle this festive problem.

Cleaning up water

In the Desk of Good News, we look at how improving sanitation has transformed lives. We speak to Johan Norberg, author of ‘Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future’ about the Great Stink of 1858.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Image: Danny Dyer on 'Who do you think you are?'. BBC Copyright

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

The BBC series ‘Who do you think you are?' has traced the ancestors of the actor Danny Dyer, famous for parts in Eastenders and many films. The programme revealed that he is in fact related to Edward III. But how unusual is that? We look at the odds of someone with English heritage being descended from this medieval king who died in 1377.

‘Shocking' stats were revealed this week by the Department of Education. School assessments showed that just under a third of five year olds were below the expected standards for children of their age. But not only are these results not that shocking there is another reason why the statistics are not all they seem.

Christmas is approaching and TIM HARFORD has a puzzling present-related question – what's the best way to wrap a spherical object? Fortunately mathematician HANNAH FRY has been thinking about this and gives her best thoughts on how to tackle this festive problem.

In the Desk of Good News, we look at how improving sanitation has transformed lives. We speak to Johan Norberg, author of ‘Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future' about the Great Stink of 1858.

The economic doom that never was; childhood cancer figures and Ed Balls

Before the EU referendum a number of serious and weighty organisations published research on what they thought would be the economic consequences of a vote to Leave. Since then, they have come under criticism for being unduly pessimistic. We take a look at what was said before the referendum, and how the economy is looking now. In the run up to the vote Tim Harford spoke to Chris Giles of the Financial Times and Andrew Lilico of the consultancy, Europe Economics. We invited them back to discuss

Did the former MP get more votes at a general election or performing on the BBC show Strictly Come Dancing? We wanted badly to answer our listener’s question but we struggled to get to the truth.

Is modern life really killing our children?

Earlier in the year there were many headlines about cancer in children and young people having risen 40%. The Telegraph headlined their piece ‘Modern Life is Killing Our Children’ stating that air pollution, powerlines, pesticides and poor diets were possible causes of the rise. The piece was based on work by a charity Children with Cancer UK. But as we’ve discovered the numbers are deceptive and they’ve been dismissed as scaremongering. Is modern life killing our children? – no, more like it’s saving them.

The economics of dining couples

Imagine you’re out to dinner with a date. You’re looking at the menu thinking about what you will have. Now you may not immediately think that economics could play a part in explaining what happens next, but Megan McArdle has been thinking about just that. She’s the author of The Upside of Down and a columnist at Bloomberg View. She says that couples – and indeed she and her husband – go through four stages of how they choose their food.

How risky is the contraceptive pill?

Many of the potential side effects of the pill, such as blood clots, have been well documented since its release in the 1960s. And now, a study has claimed to have established a link between depression and the pill. But perhaps the main risk women face is poorly interpreted statistics.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Image: Tourists in Parliament Square, Westminster/Credit Getty

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

Did the former MP get more votes at a general election or performing on the BBC show Strictly Come Dancing? We wanted badly to answer our listener's question but we struggled to get to the truth.

Earlier in the year there were many headlines about cancer in children and young people having risen 40%. The Telegraph headlined their piece ‘Modern Life is Killing Our Children' stating that air pollution, powerlines, pesticides and poor diets were possible causes of the rise. The piece was based on work by a charity Children with Cancer UK. But as we've discovered the numbers are deceptive and they've been dismissed as scaremongering. Is modern life killing our children? – no, more like it's saving them.

Imagine you're out to dinner with a date. You're looking at the menu thinking about what you will have. Now you may not immediately think that economics could play a part in explaining what happens next, but Megan McArdle has been thinking about just that. She's the author of The Upside of Down and a columnist at Bloomberg View. She says that couples – and indeed she and her husband – go through four stages of how they choose their food.

Did the former MP get more votes at a general election or performing on the BBC show Strictly Come Dancing? We wanted badly to answer our listener?s question but we struggled to get to the truth.

Earlier in the year there were many headlines about cancer in children and young people having risen 40%. The Telegraph headlined their piece ?Modern Life is Killing Our Children? stating that air pollution, powerlines, pesticides and poor diets were possible causes of the rise. The piece was based on work by a charity Children with Cancer UK. But as we?ve discovered the numbers are deceptive and they?ve been dismissed as scaremongering. Is modern life killing our children? ? no, more like it?s saving them.

Imagine you?re out to dinner with a date. You?re looking at the menu thinking about what you will have. Now you may not immediately think that economics could play a part in explaining what happens next, but Megan McArdle has been thinking about just that. She?s the author of The Upside of Down and a columnist at Bloomberg View. She says that couples ? and indeed she and her husband ? go through four stages of how they choose their food.

Earlier in the year there were many headlines about cancer in children and young people having risen 40%. The Telegraph headlined their piece ?Modern Life is Killing Our Children? stating that air pollution, powerlines, pesticides and poor diets were possible causes of the rise. The piece was based on work by a charity Children with Cancer UK. But as we?ve discovered the numbers are deceptive and they?ve been dismissed as scaremongering. Is modern life killing our children? ? no, more like it's saving them.

Imagine you?re out to dinner with a date. You?re looking at the menu thinking about what you will have. Now you may not immediately think that economics could play a part in explaining what happens next, but Megan McArdle has been thinking about just that. She's the author of The Upside of Down and a columnist at Bloomberg View. She says that couples ? and indeed she and her husband ? go through four stages of how they choose their food.

Homophobic hate crime

The Home Office recently published reported crime figures showing that in England and Wales there was a big post-referendum rise in the number of racially or religiously aggravated offences. And – according to The Observer and others – there was an even higher rise in homophobic hate crime over the summer in the UK. But we’ve been talking to the LGBT anti-violence charity behind the story and they say the stats may not actually show what the headlines suggest.

The value of a royal yacht

The royal yacht was decommissioned in 1997 but, with Brexit on the horizon, there have been calls for Britannia to rule the waves again. The argument goes that the yacht would be the perfect venue to make trade deals – as happened in the Britannia’s time. But there’s been a flotilla of – sometimes contradictory - figures about how much the deals signed on the Britannia actually benefited the UK economy. With the help of a commodore, we investigate the claims.

The Queen’s Christmas Message

Mathematician Hannah Fry has analysed every Christmas broadcast that the Queen has given since her reign began. Taking each year’s message, Hannah and a colleague have compared the number of words she has used to the number of unique words used by rappers and singers in their music. Hannah also explains that she has found a way of generating her own Queen’s Christmas Speech, using a simple algorithm to suggest passages that the Queen might say judged on her previous messages.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

Back in April More or Less tried to work out if more famous people were dying this year compared to previous years. When we looked at the number of BBC obituaries from the first three months of the year, the answer appeared to be yes. There was a jump from only five between January and late March 2012 to a staggering 24 in the same period this year - an almost five-fold increase. But now 2016 is drawing to an end we take a look to see if it really has been such an unusual year.

Homophobic hate crime

The Home Office recently published reported crime figures showing that in England and Wales there was a big post-referendum rise in the number of racially or religiously aggravated offences. And – according to The Observer and others – there was an even higher rise in homophobic hate crime over the summer in the UK. But we’ve been talking to the LGBT anti-violence charity behind the story and they say the stats may not actually show what the headlines suggest.

The value of a royal yacht

The royal yacht was decommissioned in 1997 but, with Brexit on the horizon, there have been calls for Britannia to rule the waves again. The argument goes that the yacht would be the perfect venue to make trade deals – as happened in the Britannia’s time. But there’s been a flotilla of – sometimes contradictory - figures about how much the deals signed on the Britannia actually benefited the UK economy. With the help of a commodore, we investigate the claims.

The Queen’s Christmas Message

Mathematician Hannah Fry has analysed every Christmas broadcast that the Queen has given since her reign began. Taking each year’s message, Hannah and a colleague have compared the number of words she has used to the number of unique words used by rappers and singers in their music. Hannah also explains that she has found a way of generating her own Queen’s Christmas Speech, using a simple algorithm to suggest passages that the Queen might say judged on her previous messages.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

The Home Office recently published reported crime figures showing that in England and Wales there was a big post-referendum rise in the number of racially or religiously aggravated offences. And – according to The Observer and others – there was an even higher rise in homophobic hate crime over the summer in the UK. But we've been talking to the LGBT anti-violence charity behind the story and they say the stats may not actually show what the headlines suggest.

The royal yacht was decommissioned in 1997 but, with Brexit on the horizon, there have been calls for Britannia to rule the waves again. The argument goes that the yacht would be the perfect venue to make trade deals – as happened in the Britannia's time. But there's been a flotilla of – sometimes contradictory - figures about how much the deals signed on the Britannia actually benefited the UK economy. With the help of a commodore, we investigate the claims.

The Queen's Christmas Message

Mathematician HANNAH FRY has analysed every Christmas broadcast that the Queen has given since her reign began. Taking each year's message, Hannah and a colleague have compared the number of words she has used to the number of unique words used by rappers and singers in their music. Hannah also explains that she has found a way of generating her own Queen's Christmas Speech, using a simple algorithm to suggest passages that the Queen might say judged on her previous messages.

The Home Office recently published reported crime figures showing that in England and Wales there was a big post-referendum rise in the number of racially or religiously aggravated offences. And ? according to The Observer and others ? there was an even higher rise in homophobic hate crime over the summer in the UK. But we?ve been talking to the LGBT anti-violence charity behind the story and they say the stats may not actually show what the headlines suggest.

The royal yacht was decommissioned in 1997 but, with Brexit on the horizon, there have been calls for Britannia to rule the waves again. The argument goes that the yacht would be the perfect venue to make trade deals ? as happened in the Britannia?s time. But there?s been a flotilla of ? sometimes contradictory - figures about how much the deals signed on the Britannia actually benefited the UK economy. With the help of a commodore, we investigate the claims.

The Queen?s Christmas Message

Mathematician HANNAH FRY has analysed every Christmas broadcast that the Queen has given since her reign began. Taking each year?s message, Hannah and a colleague have compared the number of words she has used to the number of unique words used by rappers and singers in their music. Hannah also explains that she has found a way of generating her own Queen?s Christmas Speech, using a simple algorithm to suggest passages that the Queen might say judged on her previous messages.

Notable deaths, Rule Britannia and creating your own Christmas speech

The royal yacht was decommissioned in 1997 but, with Brexit on the horizon, there have been calls for Britannia to rule the waves again. The argument goes that the yacht would be the perfect venue to make trade deals ? as happened in the Britannia's time. But there's been a flotilla of ? sometimes contradictory - figures about how much the deals signed on the Britannia actually benefited the UK economy. With the help of a commodore, we investigate the claims.

For the last programme of the year we are mixing up the format and holding a Christmas Quiz. Tim Harford poses some difficult numerical questions to our contestants: Stephanie Flanders, former BBC Economics Editor; Paul Lewis, presenter of Radio 4's Money Box; comedian Nathan Caton and science writer Helen Pilcher.

How will they fare with questions based on a range of topical subjects including the Olympics, the EU Referendum and reindeer? Plus, friend of the programme, Rob Eastaway poses a mathematical puzzle.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Scorekeeper: Simon Maybin

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

TIM HARFORD poses a tough statistical challenge.

This week, passengers on a United Airlines flight from Chicago to Kentucky witnessed an extraordinary sight. Security officers seized hold of a seated passenger and dragged him down the aisle by his arms. And the cause of all of this chaos? The airline found that it did not have enough seats left to accommodate everyone it wanted to get onto the plane. But could maths - and some cheerful bribery - prevent incidents like this from occurring again?

The pitfalls of fact-checking

It seems to be a burgeoning age for fact-checkers. There are websites and journalists keen to examine the truth behind what politicians and governments say. More or Less has been part of that tradition for many years. But do people always find these fact-checks persuasive? And when does fact-checking and myth-busting backfire? We take a look at some of the problems.

Humans or goldfish

Everyone knows our attention spans are getting shorter. It's just obvious. In the always-connected world of social media, smartphones and hyperlinks in the middle of everything you read, it's become that much harder to stay focused. And there are statistics too. They say that the average attention span is down from 12 seconds in the year 2000 to eight seconds now. That's less than the nine-second attention span of your average goldfish.

But the statistics are not all that they seem - and neither is the received wisdom about goldfish.

Plus, we also ask why, when children's teeth are getting healthier, so many newspapers have been reporting that tooth extractions are on the rise. And are house prices increased by a good school - we're not so sure.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Why airlines take a bet that you won't show for your flight.

Jeremy Corbyn said this week that living standards are falling. This was one of the points he made in response to Theresa May's announcement of a snap General Election. It isn't the first time he has made this claim and so we decided to check it out. Tim Harford finds out from Senior Economist Jonathan Cribb at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, that there have been some interesting twists and turns to living standards.

A recent Guardian front page suggested that sexual harassment at British universities is at 'epidemic levels'. We looked at the data cited and we are not so sure the evidence backs that up.

Maths teacher and performer Kyle Evans takes us on a mathematical journey of some of his favourite songs. He checks the Beatles, Bob Dylan and Kate Bush for the accuracy of their lyrics.

Do the Conservatives really have a 20 point lead over Labour in the opinion polls? We have been sceptical in the past of the accuracy of polling. We speak to Matt Singh about whether we need to be worried again now.

Recent headlines suggested that returning to blue passports once we leave the EU may cost half a billion pounds. We discover this is not at all what it seems.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Are people's incomes falling? Plus singing Pi like Kate Bush.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Giant bombs, a war hero and the foreign secretary's stats.



The foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, appeared on Today this week, where he fired off a salvo of highly questionable statistics. We examine them. Also in the programme: are three million school kids at risk of going hungry this summer? We put this bold claim to the test. William Sitwell, Lord Woolton's biographer, explains how this working-class boy from Salford became a war hero (and President of the Royal Statistical Society). As the General Election campaign gets underway, we look into claims that education spending is at record levels. And just how big is the mother of all bombs?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

The foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, appeared on Today this week, where he fired off a salvo of highly questionable statistics. We examine them. Also in the programme: are three million school kids at risk of going hungry this summer? We put this bold claim to the test. William Sitwell, Lord Woolton's biographer, explains how this working-class boy from Salford became a war hero (and President of the Royal Statistical Society). As the General Election campaign gets underway, we look into claims that education spending is at 'record' levels. And just how big is the 'mother of all bombs'?

The foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, appeared on Today this week, where he fired off a salvo of highly questionable statistics. We examine them. Also in the programme: are three million school kids at risk of going hungry this summer? We put this bold claim to the test. William Sitwell, Lord Woolton's biographer, explains how this working-class boy from Salford became a war hero (and President of the Royal Statistical Society). As the General Election campaign gets underway, we look into claims that education spending is at record levels. And just how big is the mother of all bombs?

Investigating the numbers in the news.

'Giant bombs, a war hero and the foreign secretary's stats.'

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Is crime rising?

Last week saw the release of the latest batch of crime statistics for England and Wales. The figures showed a shocking 21% rise in homicides and a 19% rise in violent crime. Crime Policy expert Tom Gash explains why you should always read the footnotes on statistical releases and why violence might not mean what you think it means.

Help for number-phobes

The term 'maths anxiety' has become more popular in recent times, people who are scared of or hate numbers. We found an organisation that is determined to help. Citizen Maths is a free online course designed to help adults become more confident with maths in both work and everyday life. To test this out we found a digit dodging colleague willing to give the course a try. Noel-Ann Bradshaw from Citizen Maths spoke to us about the state of maths in Britain today.

When is a cut not a cut?

This week Jeremy Corbyn sent out a Tweet stating that if elected, Labour would stop Conservative cuts of £22 billion to the NHS. The NHS is certainly facing funding difficulties over the coming years with a rising and ageing population. But we explain how it's not correct to suggest that funding is being cut.

The mathematics of mazes

Children love a maze. Adults love a maze. And it seems mathematicians love them too. We send Jordan Dunbar to Crystal Palace with maze expert Dr Ruth Dalton, to put some classic mathematical methods to the test.

But can a wooden die, some office post-it notes and a thorough understanding of mathematical probability really save Jordan when he gets lost amidst the hedges?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Are nurses paid more than the national average? We take a look.



What is happening to nurses pay?

Amid reports of nurses using food banks, Jeremy Hunt said he doesn't recognise claims their wages are worth less now than in 2010. He says nurses are actually paid £31,000 - more than the average person. If he's right, why do so many nurses say they're earning much less than that?

The Great Scottish Election Conspiracy

The reporting of the Scottish council elections has caused a bit of a stir. Did the SNP lose seven seats or gain six. The media including the BBC reported that they had lost seats, the many SNP supporters are sure that this isn't a fair representation of their performance. This all hinges on how you look at the results last time around and how you account for the major boundary review that took place between elections. Tim tries to get to the bottom of what has happened with Professor David Denver from Lancaster University.

Penalty shootout maths

What do coffee, stew and nerve-biting football finales have in common? Maths whizz and football aficionado Rob Eastaway explains all.

UEFA, European football's governing body, is currently trialling a new system for penalty shootouts. But what is the maths behind the new system - and could a century-old Scandinavian mathematical sequence offer a better approach?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Labour launched their manifesto this week, introducing new rates of tax for high earners. But did the BBC do a good job of explaining it? A screen grab taken from a TV item was spread on social media which gave a misleading impression of the amount of tax you would pay if you earned £80,000 or £123,000. We take a look at what the tax rate would mean for people earning these amounts or more.

When we lie and tell the truth online

Researchers are very excited about the amount of data that is being generated by people using social media and internet tools. But what can we really glean from that information. Seth Stephens-Davidowitz has written a book called Everybody Lies where he explores the image we portray on social media versus the truths we tell about ourselves by what we search online. We also find out some speed dating tips.

We still have sea ice

Recently BBC 4 aired a documentary from 2007 which made the claim that by 2013 all the sea ice in the world would have disappeared during summer due to global warming. It is 2017 and that has not happened. We find out why that prediction was wrong and what is really happening to sea ice.

Maths and cake

Dr Eugenia Cheng takes us through a tour of real life items that she likes to use as the basis to explain more complicated mathematical ideas. We find out how she uses hotels, cakes and yoghurt to illustrate her ideas.

Can security services follow everyone known to them?

The attack on Manchester Arena took place exactly four years since the killing of Drummer Lee Rigby in Woolwich. Back in 2013 we broadcast an interview with the former Head of MI5, Dame Stella Rimmington, about the difficulties of monitoring people who have been flagged up to the services. We are re-visiting that interview.

Chances of ending up in a care home

There are around 11.6 million people over the age of 65 in the UK, but how many need social care services? A listener got in chances to say that he was 72 - what are the chances that he will need social care services in his lifetime? We look at the numbers of people in both residential care and receiving formal care services in the home currently.

Penalty shoot outs update

A few weeks ago we explained UEFA's new procedure for carrying out penalty shoot outs. We bring news of how that system is playing out, and how a loyal listener has spotted a famous pattern in Blur's song, 'Girls and Boys'.

Stop sneak peak access

For years statisticians have been calling for an end to the practice of allowing ministers and officials to see official numbers before everyone else. Why does it matter? We tell the strange tale exploring whether economic data is leaked to City traders before its official publication. Could pre-release access to Government statistics be behind strange movements on financial markets? With help from Mike Bird of the Wall Street Journal, and Alex Kurov of the University of West Virginia, we take a look at the evidence.

Also - a tribute to Sir Roger Moore.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



On this final programme of the series we try to give some context to some of the issues that are being discussed during the current election campaign.

Who pays tax?

What proportion of adults are paying income tax? How much are they paying? Where does the highest burden lay? We take a look. Also, we look at the different political parties' tax policies. This includes corporation tax, but what about National Insurance?

How do you cut migration?

The Conservative manifesto again includes the aim to lower net migration to tens of thousands. How has this aim fared in the last six years? And what could the Conservatives do in future years to achieve their goal? We also take a look at what impact that might have on the economy.

Taking the nations' temperature

Summer has arrived - but we cast our minds to the chilly months ahead and think about the Winter Fuel Payment. The Conservatives are proposing to change this to a means-tested system - everywhere except Scotland. Is this because Scotland is colder than the rest of the UK? BBC Weather Man Phil Avery has the answer.

Free School Meals

It's been a popular topic in party manifestos - free school meals. Jamie Oliver thinks school dinners are essential for fighting obesity - but is there really a case to be made for the health benefits of a school lunch? Emily Tanner from the National Centre for Social Research puts the case for and against Universal Free School Meals - while munching a pie and a packed lunch.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Are boys getting more top A Level grades than girls?

Last week it was reported that more boys were getting top grades than girls in A Levels. This bucked a trend which previously showed that girls got better grades. But is it as simple as boys getting better? We find out that it really depends on what subjects you take.

Is a lack of school swimming lessons leading to more deaths by drowning?

Are more young people really drowning due to children in primary schools receiving fewer swimming lessons? That was the question posed to us by one loyal listener after she read newspaper headlines suggesting that was the case. So what do the numbers say? Tim Harford talks to Mike Dunn from The Royal Life Saving Society.

Why are dress sizes so weird?

What clothes size are you? - the question every woman hates to be asked. Not only because it's a bit rude, but because quite frankly it's hard to know the answer. Today most shops hire a 'fit' model - a real life woman who they consider to have the dimensions of their perfect customer. They then create clothes to fit her dimensions - waste, hips and bust. More Or Less takes one size 8 fit model shopping to show how sizes differ between shops.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Editor: Jasper Corbett.

What clothes size are you?' - the question every woman hates to be asked. Not only because it's a bit rude, but because quite frankly it's hard to know the answer. Today most shops hire a 'fit' model - a real life woman who they consider to have the dimensions of their perfect customer. They then create clothes to fit her dimensions - waste, hips and bust. More Or Less takes one size 8 fit model shopping to show how sizes differ between shops.

What clothes size are you? - the question every woman hates to be asked. Not only because it's a bit rude, but because quite frankly it's hard to know the answer. Today most shops hire a 'fit' model - a real life woman who they consider to have the dimensions of their perfect customer. They then create clothes to fit her dimensions - waste, hips and bust. More Or Less takes one size 8 fit model shopping to show how sizes differ between shops.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Grenfell Tower's death toll

In the early hours of June 14th a fire engulfed Grenfell Tower, a residential tower block in West London. A large number of people died and in the aftermath residents, the wider public, politicians and celebrities all expressed frustration that a tragedy like this one was able to happen in 21st Century Britain.

Some people were also sceptical at the numbers of fatalities being reported by the police - and then the media. Were the police being too conservative in their estimates?

A local resident emailed the programme asking us to look into the numbers.TIM HARFORD talks to Commander Stuart Cundy, who oversaw the Met police operation following the fire; to ask him why it is has been so hard to establish the death toll.

Houston - we have a problem

Hurricane Harvey has caused devastation in Texas and neighbouring states. Commentators have speculated that this will be one of the costliest storms in history. We explore why this might be - could the US Government's flood insurance programme be inadvertently contributing to the problem by supporting the buildings in flood plains?

How many sexual partners do we have?

Recently on the Today programme John Humphreys said: Thirty years ago a man would have had eight sexual partners and women three, now those averages are 12 for men and eight for women This sparked a discussion on Twitter among our listeners. How can the number of average partners of men and women be so different? We speak to Sir DAVID SPIEGELHALTER, Winton Professor of Risk at the University of Cambridge.

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

A local resident emailed the programme asking us to look into the numbers. Tim Harford talks to Commander Stuart Cundy, who oversaw the Met police operation following the fire; to ask him why it is has been so hard to establish the death toll.

Recently on the Today programme John Humphreys said: 'Thirty years ago a man would have had eight sexual partners and women three, now those averages are 12 for men and eight for women' This sparked a discussion on Twitter among our listeners. How can the number of average partners of men and women be so different? We speak to Sir DAVID SPIEGELHALTER, Winton Professor of Risk at the University of Cambridge.

Recently on the Today programme John Humphreys said: Thirty years ago a man would have had eight sexual partners and women three, now those averages are 12 for men and eight for women This sparked a discussion on Twitter among our listeners. How can the number of average partners of men and women be so different? We speak to Sir David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of Risk at the University of Cambridge.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Are children in Manchester ready for school?

Thousands of children in Greater Manchester are starting school unable to speak in full sentences or use the toilet ran a headline in the Manchester Evening News earlier this week. The new mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham also made the claim. Can that really be true asked a loyal listener? More or Less investigates.

Will we need 10 new power plants by 2040 for the electric car revolution?

Sales of new petrol and diesel cars will be banned from 2040 in the UK. So it's expected there will be a huge increase in the number of electric vehicles on our roads. But what will happen when we all try and charge them? Newspaper headlines have quoted us as needing ten new nuclear power plants to cover it and some have even suggested we won't have enough power to charge these vehicles. So we set out to look at the numbers driving the electric car revolution.

Maths underpinning science

Professor Alison Etheridge from the University of Oxford tells the programme why maths can sometimes be overlooked. She talks about her interest in genetics and why mathematicians need to be more vocal about their work.

And we deal with a number of complaints about last week's programme.

Thousands of children in Greater Manchester are starting school unable to speak in full sentences or use the toilet' ran a headline in the Manchester Evening News earlier this week. The new mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham also made the claim. Can that really be true asked a loyal listener? More or Less investigates.

Thousands of children in Greater Manchester are starting school unable to speak in full sentences or use the toilet ran a headline in the Manchester Evening News earlier this week. The new mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham also made the claim. Can that really be true asked a loyal listener? More or Less investigates.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Disasters

Are natural disasters on the rise? Following the devastating hurricanes to have battered the Caribbean and the United States, the floods in Asia and the mudslides in Sierra Leone, the UN Secretary General told a press conference that the number of disasters in the world has quadrupled since the 1980s - is he right?

Police Pay

Theresa May said at Prime Ministers Question's that pay for certain police officers who started in 2010 had risen by 32%. This statement outraged the Police Federation - TIM HARFORD puts this claim into context and discovers that that the Prime Minister picked this particular group of officers for a reason.

Zillions

We like a specific number on More or Less but the English language isn't always so exact. It turns out that people love words that give a sense of size, but are vague about an actual number, terms like zillion and umpteenth.HELEN ZALTZMAN is the presenter of the podcast 'The Allusionist' that looks at the way we use language. Tim has been talking to her about what are called indefinite hyperbolic numbers.

A present for a Statistically significant other.

Last series, Dave called us for help. 'What should he buy his statistics-mad partner who also loved cross-stich?' Zillions of More or Less listeners got in touch to suggest ideas - so did he take their advice?

We like a specific number on More or Less but the English language isn't always so exact. It turns out that people love words that give a sense of size, but are vague about an actual number, terms like zillion and umpteenth. Helen Zaltzman is the presenter of the podcast 'The Allusionist' that looks at the way we use language. Tim has been talking to her about what are called indefinite hyperbolic numbers.

Disasters

Are natural disasters on the rise? Following the devastating hurricanes to have battered the Caribbean and the United States, the floods in Asia and the mudslides in Sierra Leone, the UN Secretary General told a press conference that the number of disasters in the world has quadrupled since the 1980s - is he right?

Police Pay

Theresa May said at Prime Ministers Question's that pay for certain police officers who started in 2010 had risen by 32%. This statement outraged the Police Federation - Tim Harford puts this claim into context and discovers that that the Prime Minister picked this particular group of officers for a reason.

Zillions

We like a specific number on More or Less but the English language isn't always so exact. It turns out that people love words that give a sense of size, but are vague about an actual number, terms like zillion and umpteenth. Helen Zaltzman is the presenter of the podcast 'The Allusionist' that looks at the way we use language. Tim has been talking to her about what are called indefinite hyperbolic numbers.

A present for a Statistically significant other.

Last series, Dave called us for help. 'What should he buy his statistics-mad partner who also loved cross-stich?' Zillions of More or Less listeners got in touch to suggest ideas - so did he take their advice?



We like a specific number on More or Less but the English language isn't always so exact. It turns out that people love words that give a sense of size, but are vague about an actual number, terms like zillion and umpteenth.HELEN ZALTZMAN is the presenter of the podcast 'The Allusionist' that looks at the way we use language. Tim has been talking to her about what are called indefinite hyperbolic numbers.

Last series, Dave called us for help. 'What should he buy his statistics-mad partner who also loved cross-stich?' Zillions of More or Less listeners got in touch to suggest ideas - so did he take their advice?

Has the number of natural disasters really quadrupled in the last forty years?

£350 million claim again

Boris Johnson has made the claim again that when the UK leaves the EU it will gain control of £350 million a week. The UK Statistics Authority has written to the Foreign Secretary to tell him it is a mis-use of official statistics to make this assertion. We take a look at why they have taken this action.

Disadvantaged students going to university

We look at two claims - is Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn correct to say that there are fewer students from disadvantaged backgrounds going to university now. Plus - is it true that disadvantaged students from England are twice as likely to go to university than those from Scotland.

Spanish vets

Is it true that British vets train for seven years while in Spain it only takes a year to qualify?

The value of Half a Crown from 1887

A loyal listener and a friend were recently discussing a Half Crown coin that they found at a sale. They wanted to know how much it would be worth in today's money. The answer is not as straight forward as you might think.



A loyal listener and a friend were recently discussing a Half Crown coin that they found at a sale. They wanted to know how much it would be worth in today's money. The answer is not as straight forward as you might think.

Foreign secretary Boris Johnson is accused of misusing official statistics.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Is Uber safe?

Recently Transport for London took the decision not to renew Uber's London license. One criticism of the company is that its drivers commit too many sexual offences. Billboards around the capital last year said that 32 of the 154 allegations of assault made against London taxi drivers between February 2015 and February 2016 involved Uber drivers. But is that a big number and how do the total number of allegations made compare to the years before Uber was even operating?

The Brits seeking European passports elsewhere

In partnership with Reality Check, More or Less has spoken to each of the other 27 countries in the EU to find out whether an increasing number of Brits living abroad have applied for citizenship. This has certainly been the trend in many countries. We'll reveal the most popular countries and tell the tale of how easy it may or may not have been to get the numbers!

How do we know if there is more domestic violence around?

If you want to look at whether the amount of domestic violence in the UK is going up or down, how would you measure it? Over the last three decades, this is something that Sylvia Walby, Professor of Sociology at Lancaster University, has been trying to figure this out. We speak to her about ways to improve the current statistics available.

Big polluters: container ships versus cars

A number of websites have claimed that '15 of the largest ships emit as much pollution as all the cars in the world.' That is a very catchy statement which gives an indication of the pollution produced by shipping containers around the world. But is it true. We look at the different types of emissions produced by container ships and cars.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Is Uber safe?

Recently Transport for London took the decision not to renew Uber's London license. One criticism of the company is that its drivers commit too many sexual offences. Billboards around the capital last year said that 32 of the 154 allegations of assault made against London taxi drivers between February 2015 and February 2016 involved Uber drivers. But is that a big number and how do the total number of allegations made compare to the years before Uber was even operating?

The Brits seeking European passports elsewhere

In partnership with Reality Check, More or Less has spoken to each of the other 27 countries in the EU to find out whether an increasing number of Brits living abroad have applied for citizenship. This has certainly been the trend in many countries. We'll reveal the most popular countries and tell the tale of how easy it may or may not have been to get the numbers!

How do we know if there is more domestic violence around?

If you want to look at whether the amount of domestic violence in the UK is going up or down, how would you measure it? Over the last three decades, this is something that Sylvia Walby, Professor of Sociology at Lancaster University, has been trying to figure this out. We speak to her about ways to improve the current statistics available.

Big polluters: container ships versus cars

A number of websites have claimed that '15 of the largest ships emit as much pollution as all the cars in the world.' That is a very catchy statement which gives an indication of the pollution produced by shipping containers around the world. But is it true. We look at the different types of emissions produced by container ships and cars.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.



Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Is Uber safe? The post Brexit dual nationality surge; measuring partner abuse.

Did missed appointments cost the NHS £1 billion last year?

New figures published recently suggest that the financial cost to the NHS for missed appointments was £1 billion last year. But our listeners are curious. How has this figure been worked out? And don't missed appointments actually ease the pressure on an overcrowded system?

Graduate pay - is it always higher than non-graduates' pay?

It is often claimed that if you go to university and get a degree, you will earn more than those who do not. But is that always true? We take a look to see if there are occasions when having a degree makes little difference or whether the benefit of a degree has changed over time.

How much cocaine is on a bank note?

Tim Harford speaks to Richard Sleeman who works for a firm, Mass Spec Analytical, that specialises in working out how much cocaine can be found on bank notes across the country. Do some parts of the country have more cocaine on their notes than others? Is it true that 99% of bank notes in London have cocaine on them?

Is it true that one in five can't name an author of literature?

Last year the Royal Society of Literature made this claim - but what was it based on? It turns out a polling company found that 20 percent questioned failed to name a single author. Should we be surprised? We took a look at the data.

Diet Coke Habit

The New York Times claims that Donald Trump drinks 'a dozen' Diet Cokes a day. With each can of 330ml containing 42mg of caffeine - what impact, if any, could this have on the President's health?

Do missed appointments cost the NHS \u00a31 billion? And do you always earn more with a degree?



The New York Times claims that Donald Trump drinks 'a dozen' Diet Cokes a day. With each can of 330ml containing 42mg of caffeine - what impact, if any, could this have on the President's health?

Gender Pay Gap

This week the Office for National Statistics has published analysis trying to find out why it is that on average women are paid less than men in specific industries and occupations. We examine their findings, as well as taking a look at the current discussion about equal pay at the BBC.

Alcohol reaction times

We take a look at a study that suggests that people's reaction speeds are affected over time by regular drinking. It recommends that official guidelines for the amount of alcohol consumed a week should be lowered. But what does the evidence show?

Bus announcements - when is too many?

Transport for London has introduced a new announcement on its buses to warn travellers that the bus is about to move. We discuss the benefit of such messages.

How many words do you need to speak a language?

Ein bier bitte? Loyal listener David made a new year's resolution to learn German. Three years later, that's about as far as he's got. Keen to have something to aim for, he asked More or Less how many words you really need to know in order to speak a language. We find out with help from Professor Stuart Webb, and put Tim through his paces to find out how big his own English vocabulary is.

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

(Photo: Man and woman working on a car production plant. Credit: SEBASTIEN BOZON/AFP/Getty Images)

How much more are men paid than women? And how many words do you need to speak a language?



(Photo: Man and woman working on a car production plant. Credit: SEBASTIEN BOZON/AFP/Getty Images)

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

First sexual experience - checking the facts

A short film for the Draw A Line campaign has made the claim that one in three girls first sexual experience is rape. This seems shockingly high, but what is the evidence? Is it just for the UK or a global figure? We go back to the reports that were used to source the claim, and find the research has been misinterpreted.

How long can a shark go for without eating?

A recent episode of Blue Planet II stated that after a large meal a Sixgill shark might not have to eat for 'up to an entire year'. Tim Harford speaks to Dr David Ebert, a shark expert who has studied the stomach contents of Sixgills over the years. And to Professor Alex Roger, a zoologist who advised the Blue Planet team, to try and find out how accurate the claim is and why the deep sea is still a mystery.

The wonder of Prime Numbers

Oxford mathematician Vicky Neale talks about her new book - Closing The Gap - and how mathematicians have striven to understand the patterns behind prime numbers.

Multiple grannies

A Swiss mummy has recently been identified as a distant ancestor of Boris Johnson. But some people have been getting tangled up over just how many great-great-great-great-great-great-great grandmothers the Foreign Secretary might have. We tackle an email from one listener - none other than the broadcaster Stephen Fry.

Challenging the claim that one in three girls' first sexual experience is rape.



A Swiss mummy has recently been identified as a distant ancestor of Boris Johnson. But some people have been getting tangled up over just how many great-great-great-great-great-great-great grandmothers the Foreign Secretary might have. We tackle an email from one listener - none other than the broadcaster Stephen Fry.

How many transgender people are there in the UK? Plus a statistical take on parkruns.



The UK produces official statistics about all sorts of things - from economic indicators to demographic data. But it turns out there are no official figures for the number of transgender people in the UK. We explore what we do know, and what is harder to measure.

Do 4% of the population drink nearly a third of the alcohol?

According to recent headlines, just 4% of the population drink nearly a third of the alcohol sold in England. But can so few people really account for so much of the countries bar tab? We find out where the statistic came from.

Bank of England's Mark Carney says no to RPI

At a hearing of the House of Lords' economic affairs committee, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said it would be useful to have a single measure of inflation for consumers - and that CPI was a much better measure than RPI, which he said had no merit. We find out why with the FT's Chris Giles.

Every weekend over 1.5 million people run 5,000m on Saturday mornings for parkrun which is a free event that takes place all over the UK and indeed across the globe. Each runner is given a bar code, which is scanned at the end of the run and fed into a database showing them what place they came in their race- we take a look at which courses are the fastest, slowest, hardest and easiest.

Testing for a cough correlation between snooker and smoking

A listener emailed us this week to ask whether you can connect the number of coughs during snooker matches to the decline in smoking. We got counting to see if the theory was a trick shot - with help from John Virgo.

Photo: Jimmy White

Credit: Photo by Jamie McDonald/Getty Images.

At a hearing of the House of Lords' economic affairs committee, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said it would be useful to have a single measure of inflation for consumers - and that CPI was a much better measure than RPI, which he said had 'no merit'. We find out why with the FT's Chris Giles.

At a hearing of the House of Lords' economic affairs committee, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said it would be useful to have a single measure of inflation for consumers - and that CPI was a much better measure than RPI, which he said had no merit. We find out why with the FT's Chris Giles.

Why the biggest ever fall in the Dow wasn't

The BBC - and many others - announced that on Monday the Dow stock index saw it's biggest ever fall. Tim Harford skewers this alarmist nonsense: what matters is the percentage fall, which was sizable but has been seen many times before. We also explain why real stock-watchers look at the S&P, not the Dow.

The cost of tampons

Amid the debates on period poverty and the 'tampon tax' it has been suggested that women spend £13 a month on sanitary products on average. But is that fair? The number comes from a survey asking women what they think they spend, but we take a trip to the shops to compare prices and we're not so sure that is a reasonable amount.

Park Run Part II

Has our running about eagerly correspondent Jordan Dunbar survived Britain's hardest parkrun?

Are 25% of citizens in the UK criminals?

How many of us in the UK are convicted criminals? According to barrister Matthew Scott it's as high as 25%. That seems like an awful lot, so we speak to crime statistics expert Professor Susan McVie to see if his numbers stand up under closer examination.

What proportion of women got the vote in 2018?

Not all women got the vote in 2018. We look at the numbers behind women's suffrage. Do they reveal an important reason why the establishment fought so hard to stop all women getting the vote?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Why the biggest ever fall in the Dow wasn't, and how much do women spend on tampons?



Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

How many people have UN staff raped?

It was reported in a number of the newspapers this week that UN staff are responsible for 60,000 rapes in a decade. We unpick the back of an envelope calculation that has resulted in this extraordinary figure.

Gender in literature

How are women depicted in books? Author Ben Blatt has carried out an analysis of the types of words used to describe them, and also their absence in some of the classics.

How many people did Stalin kill?

How do you extract facts from a regime that was so profoundly secretive? We speak to Professor James Harris and Professor Barbara Anderson about why there are so many different figures and how historians and demographers calculate death tolls by regimes.

The wealth of Mr Darcy

The male love interest of 'Pride and Prejudice' is supposed to be fabulously wealthy. It says in the early 19th century English novel that Mr Darcy has an income £10,000 a year - that seems to impress the fictional characters. Two hundred years later, it's not clear how remarkable it really is. We speak to Professor Stephen Broadberry of the University of Oxford.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald.



Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Straws

How much difference will a ban on straws really make to the amount of plastic in our seas? Some say it could be just a drop in the ocean.

Women on boards

Why do people quote the number of women on FTSE 100 boards? Is it telling us something useful about the glass ceiling? We explore whether the proportion of female executives has changed over time, and what it tells us about women in business.

Using personal data for the public good

Recent headlines surrounding Facebook and Cambridge Analytica have kick started a debate about who should access our data. Hetan Shah, the Executive Director of the Royal Statistical Society, shares a plan he's had to make sure social media details are used for the public good.

The number of animals born each day

A ten year old listener got in touch to ask 'how many animals are born every day?' We set off on a hunt to the coast of Chile (well a simulated version at Penguin beach in London Zoo) to find the answer.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Editor: Richard Vadon.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Editor: Richard Vadon.

Breast screening - the Numbers

The Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, said this week that over the past decade, 450,000 women have accidentally not been invited for breast cancer screening because of a computer error - and that up to 270 women may have had their lives shortened as a result. But where does that number come from? We'll be checking the Health Secretary's maths.

Counting the Windrush Generation

Do we know how many who came to the UK from Commonwealth countries before 1971 are now at risk of being deported? We speak to the Migration Obvservatory at Oxford University to find out where the Windrush Generation are actually from, plus how many are missing vital documentation.

Has Nigel Farage been on Question Time too often?

The former UKIP leader has appeared on Question Time 32 times. Is that too many? Labour's Lord Adonis thinks so. We go back through the archives to look at the different times he was invited on and compare it to some other frequent panelists.

Painting a picture with an audiogram

Data journalist Mona Chalabi talks to Tim Harford about her unusual approach to analysing numbers. She has spent years making interesting visual depictions of data. Now she has turned her attention to some audio projects. We discover the correlation between men's voices and their testicles.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Editor: Richard Vadon.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Editor: Richard Vadon.

The UK abortion statistics gaining attention in Ireland's referendum debate

In two weeks' time the Republic of Ireland is holding a referendum into whether to make changes to its strict abortion laws. We have been inundated with emails and Tweets from listeners asking us to look at some of the statistics that keep coming up during the course of the campaigns for and against changing the law. The one that has caught the most attention is a statistic which has appeared on posters saying: In Britain, Limited abortion kills 1 in 5 babies. We take a look at the numbers.

Superforecasting

How good are political and economic forecasts? Philip Tetlock, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania collects forecasts from a wide range of experts to see if they come true or not. One nickname he has for some the best forecasters is the foxes - not to be confused with the woeful hedgehogs.

Modern Slavery

Former Crimewatch presenter Nick Ross asked us to look into the numbers of 'modern slaves' reported in the UK. We explore the definition of modern slavery and how the authorities create estimates of the size of what is largely a hidden phenomenon.

Math versus Maths

North Americans like to use the word 'math' while the Brits like to say 'maths' - but who is correct? We hear the case for both words and try work out which one is right, with the help of the Queen of Countdown's Dictionary Corner, Susie Dent.

In two weeks' time the Republic of Ireland is holding a referendum into whether to make changes to its strict abortion laws. We have been inundated with emails and Tweets from listeners asking us to look at some of the statistics that keep coming up during the course of the campaigns for and against changing the law. The one that has caught the most attention is a statistic which has appeared on posters saying: In Britain, Limited abortion kills 1 in 5 babies. We take a look at the numbers.

How good are political and economic forecasts? Philip Tetlock, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania collects forecasts from a wide range of experts to see if they come true or not. One nickname he has for some the best forecasters is the foxes - not to be confused with the woeful hedgehogs.

North Americans like to use the word 'math' while the Brits like to say 'maths' - but who is correct? We hear the case for both words and try work out which one is right, with the help of the Queen of Countdown's Dictionary Corner, Susie Dent.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

In two weeks' time the Republic of Ireland is holding a referendum into whether to make changes to its strict abortion laws. We have been inundated with emails and Tweets from listeners asking us to look at some of the statistics that keep coming up during the course of the campaigns for and against changing the law. The one that has caught the most attention is a statistic which has appeared on posters saying: 'In Britain, 'Limited' abortion kills 1 in 5 babies.' We take a look at the numbers.

How good are political and economic forecasts? Philip Tetlock, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania collects forecasts from a wide range of experts to see if they come true or not. One nickname he has for some the best forecasters is the 'foxes' - not to be confused with the woeful 'hedgehogs'.

Last week, the TUC made headlines with a new report it had published, claiming more 1 million more children from working families are living in poverty than they were in 2010. But is this because a lot more people are working today than ten years ago? Tim Harford speaks to Jonathan Cribb from the Institute for Fiscal Studies about how we define poverty, and whether things are getting worse or better

Progress 8

School league tables in England used to rank schools by the proportion of pupils who managed to achieve five A* to C grades in their GCSE's. There was an obvious problem with that: schools with lots of middle class kids might do well on the league tables, even if the actual teaching wasn't so great. And brilliant schools in deprived areas might be undervalued. So in 2016 the system was changed - instead league tables are now arranged by a measure called Progress 8. It's meant to be a fairer way to assess things. But one listener got in touch to ask - how does it work? Is it better?

How green is grass?

A listener wants to know whether a garden product can really make you grass 6 times greener so we'll be exploring the greenness of grass. Can you put a numeric value on how green a colour is? Is it possible to tell when something is six times greener than baseline with the human eye, and is there a maximum green to which all lawns should aspire?

Royal Wedding economics

In the run up to the marriage of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, media outlets and newspapers have been musing over how much money the wedding will bring to the UK economy. We speak to Federica Cocco of the Financial Times who doesn't think there will be much impact at all.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Photo credit: Getty Images).

Investigating the numbers in the news.



(Photo credit: Getty Images).

With weather being the national obsession, More or Less has received a number of weather-related emails - specifically about the BBC's weather app. This was updated earlier this year, and it now includes an hour by hour breakdown telling users what chance there is of it raining wherever they are - but what does this percentage actually mean? Tim Harford speaks to meteorologist Nikki Berry from Metrogroup, which provides the BBC's weather forecast analysis.

University of Oxford admissions statistics

How diverse are the most recent undergraduates to start at one of the country's top universities? We take a look.

Waiting for the facts on Voter ID trials

In the recent local elections in England there were five authorities taking part in a trial, requiring voters to show ID for the first time when they turned up at the polling station. In the initial days after the vote it was reported that up to 4,000 people were turned away and couldn't vote because they didn't have identification. But now, Newsnight's David Grossman has collected the data from the trial areas to discover the original estimate was out by a factor of 10.

Counting teabags

How much tea do we drink? A figure that is often quoted suggests that Brits drink 165 million cups of tea a day which works out as around 60 billion a year. We take a look at what evidence is available and whether it is possible to calculate such a statistic.

Are pensioners richer than workers?

A More or Less listener heard a claim that the average income for pensioners is higher than the average income for people of working age - is that true? Jonathan Cribb from the Institute for Fiscal Studies has an answer.

How to read the weather forecast, plus measuring the amount of tea we drink.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



A More or Less listener heard a claim that the average income for pensioners is higher than the average income for people of working age - is that true? Jonathan Cribb from the Institute for Fiscal Studies has an answer.

How do we know how WH Smiths fares on the high street?

Over the Bank Holiday weekend a news story from the consumer advice website Which caught a lot of attention. It was claimed that WH Smiths is the least liked shop on the high street. But exactly how did researchers work that out? We take a look at the survey they conducted.

Counting the homeless

We often hear numbers in the news about how many people are sleeping rough on the streets of the UK

According to the latest official figures around 4700 people were sleeping in the streets in the autumn of 2017.

And that got us thinking. These statistics aren't just downloaded from some big database in the sky. They need - like any statistic - to be collected and calculated. So we ask a simple question: how do you count the number of people sleeping rough?

How safe are home births?

Is giving birth at home as safe as giving birth in hospital? How many women have the choice to do so, and does it make a difference if you've already had a child? We try to cut through the noise and find out what the statistics say.

Harry Potter: how many wizards?

Fans of Harry Potter have been asking - just how many wizards live among us? We follow a trail of clues in J K Rowling's best-selling books to provide the definitive estimate of the wizarding population.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Editor: Andy Smith.



Editor: Andy Smith.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

HOW TO REDUCE EXAM REVISION WITH MATHS

A self-confessed lazy student has asked for help with his exams - what's the minimum amount of revision he needs to do in order to pass? Rob Eastaway from Maths Inspiration does the sums.

A BILLION DEAD BIRDS?

It's claimed that a billion birds in America die each year by flying into buildings. Where does this number come from and how was it calculated - and is it remotely correct?

LONDON v NEW YORK CITY

It was reported earlier this year that London's murder rate was higher than New York City's for the first time - but how do the two cities compare a few months down the line, and is there any value in making these snapshot comparisons?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Richard Fenton-Smith

Editor: Richard Vadon.

Tim Harford explains how maths can help lazy students reduce their revision workload.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



Editor: Richard Vadon.

Could computers do a better job than humans of exposing fake news and holding politicians to account? Tim Harford interviews Mevan Babakar of the fact-checking organisation Fullfact about the software tools she and her team are building to try to automatically verify statistical claims.

The Child Poverty Action Group claims low-earning parents working full-time are unable to earn enough to provide their family with a basic, no-frills lifestyle. Tim Harford examines the numbers with the author of the group's report, Professor Donald Hirsch of the Centre for Research in Social Policy at Loughborough University.

Presenter: Tim Harford.

Tim Harford on no-frills living, automated fact-checking and Lord of the Rings maths.



Presenter: Tim Harford.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

The Prime Minister's trip to Africa has spurred much debate on EU tariffs to the country and how this could change after Brexit. Twitter was set alight by an interview on the Today programme in which the presenter quoted some pretty high tariffs on African countries. The critics claimed that these tariffs were largely non-existent. So what's the truth? Tim Harford speaks to Soumaya Keynes, a trade specialist at The Economist.

It was also claimed that six fast-growing African countries could provide significant trade openings for the UK as it seeks to expand its trade relationships outside the EU. But how big are these African economies?

No alcohol safe to drink, global study confirms ran a recent BBC headline about a paper published in the Lancet journal. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter tells Tim Harford why moderate drinkers should not be alarmed.

President Trump tweeted this eye-catching claim recently: Over 90% approval rating for your all-time favorite (I hope) President within the Republican Party and 52% overall. That does sound impressively high. Tim Harford asks the BBC's senior North America reporter, Anthony Zurcher whether the figures are true.

What proportion of the UK's population are immigrants? What proportion of teenage girls give birth each year? Research suggests most people get the answer to these questions, and many others about everyday facts, very wrong. Tim Harford interviews Bobby Duffy, Global Director of Ipsos Social Research Institute and author of the book, Perils of Perception: Why We're Wong About Nearly Everything, about our most common mistakenly-held beliefs and what they reveal about us.

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Investigating the numbers in the news.



No alcohol safe to drink, global study confirms ran a recent BBC headline about a paper published in the Lancet journal. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter tells Tim Harford why moderate drinkers should not be alarmed.

President Trump tweeted this eye-catching claim recently: Over 90% approval rating for your all-time favorite (I hope) President within the Republican Party and 52% overall. That does sound impressively high. Tim Harford asks the BBC's senior North America reporter, Anthony Zurcher whether the figures are true.

What proportion of the UK's population are immigrants? What proportion of teenage girls give birth each year? Research suggests most people get the answer to these questions, and many others about everyday facts, very wrong. Tim Harford interviews Bobby Duffy, Global Director of Ipsos Social Research Institute and author of the book, Perils of Perception: Why We're Wong About Nearly Everything, about our most common mistakenly-held beliefs and what they reveal about us.

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

No alcohol safe to drink, global study confirms' ran a recent BBC headline about a paper published in the Lancet journal. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter tells Tim Harford why moderate drinkers should not be alarmed.

President Trump tweeted this eye-catching claim recently: 'Over 90% approval rating for your all-time favorite (I hope) President within the Republican Party and 52% overall.' That does sound impressively high. Tim Harford asks the BBC's senior North America reporter, Anthony Zurcher whether the figures are true.

What proportion of the UK's population are immigrants? What proportion of teenage girls give birth each year? Research suggests most people get the answer to these questions, and many others about everyday facts, very wrong. Tim Harford interviews Bobby Duffy, Global Director of Ipsos Social Research Institute and author of the book, 'Perils of Perception: Why We're Wong About Nearly Everything', about our most common mistakenly-held beliefs and what they reveal about us.

Does Britain rely on imports of Danish sperm?

A listener contacted the programme to say they'd heard on BBC Radio 4's Today programme that 80% of the UK economy is services. Could that really be right, they asked. We speak to Jonathan Athow from the Office for National Statistics to find out whether the claim is correct (Clue: it is).

And are there really more statues of goats than women in the UK?

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Tim Harford questions the usefulness of a popular heart age calculator.



Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Investigating the numbers in the news.

A recent BBC Horizon programme claimed suicide is the biggest killer of men under 50. Tim Harford examines this sobering statistic and considers how the UK's suicide compare to the rest of the world.

Back to school, and there's good news: apparently more and more children are in schools rated good or outstanding. But our loyal listeners wonder if the improvement is real and we think they're right to ask the question. While there is evidence of genuine progress, that's not the only thing going on. Tim Harford discusses the statistics with education journalist Laura McInerney.

Are female tennis players treated unfairly by umpires? After Serena Williams' outburst at the US Open and her claim that she was judged more harshly by the umpire because she was a woman, we look at what the statistics can tell us about whether men are treated more favourably than women when they break the rules.

Are you more chimp or Neanderthal? We're talking about DNA, not spirit animals. We often hear scientists talking about how we are related but what's the difference between 96% similarity and sharing 20% of our DNA, and do some of us literally have pieces of Neanderthal within us? Tim speaks to Professor Peter Donnelly to help answer this genetic generation game.

And the results of the great goat statue count are in.

Producer: Ruth Alexander.



Back to school, and there's good news: apparently more and more children are in schools rated good or outstanding. But our loyal listeners wonder if the improvement is real and we think they're right to ask the question. While there is evidence of genuine progress, that's not the only thing going on. Tim Harford discusses the statistics with education journalist Laura McInerney.

Producer: Ruth Alexander.

Back to school, and there's good news: apparently more and more children are in schools rated 'good' or 'outstanding'. But our loyal listeners wonder if the improvement is real and we think they're right to ask the question. While there is evidence of genuine progress, that's not the only thing going on. Tim Harford discusses the statistics with education journalist Laura McInerney.

A BBC questionnaire has found 1 in 5 children surveyed were caring for a family member with an illness or disability. The suggestion is that this could mean that 800,000 secondary-school age children are carrying out some level of care. Loyal listeners have doubted there can be so many young carers. Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander look into the numbers.

On the 20 September 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, where residents are United States citizens. George Washington University has published a report ? commissioned by the Puerto Rican government ? claiming that the hurricane accounted for nearly 3,000 deaths in Puerto Rico. President Trump disputed these official figures, tweeting that the Democrats were inflating the death toll to make me look as bad as possible. So, who is right, and how do you determine who died as a result of a natural disaster? Tim Harford speaks to the lead investigator of the George Washington University report, Dr Carlos Santos-Burgoa.

The shadow chancellor John McDonnell recently claimed 'for the first time shareholders now take a greater share of national income than workers'. But is it true? Tim Harford speaks to The Financial Times? economics editor Chris Giles.

Loyal listener David from Sheffield has been in touch to query a claim he heard on BBC Radio 4?s Start the Week that more people visit museums than attend football matches. Ruth Alexander finds out if we really do favour culture over the nation?s game.

Plus, what is the most dangerous sport? Tim Harford thinks he has the definitive answer.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Series devoted to the world of numbers.



On the 20 September 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, where residents are United States citizens. George Washington University has published a report ? commissioned by the Puerto Rican government ? claiming that the hurricane accounted for nearly 3,000 deaths in Puerto Rico. President Trump disputed these official figures, tweeting that the Democrats were inflating the death toll to make me look as bad as possible. So, who is right, and how do you determine who died as a result of a natural disaster? Tim Harford speaks to the lead investigator of the George Washington University report, Dr Carlos Santos-Burgoa.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

On the 20 September 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, where residents are United States citizens. George Washington University has published a report – commissioned by the Puerto Rican government – claiming that the hurricane accounted for nearly 3,000 deaths in Puerto Rico. President Trump disputed these official figures, tweeting that the Democrats were inflating the death toll to make me look as bad as possible. So, who is right, and how do you determine who died as a result of a natural disaster? Tim Harford speaks to the lead investigator of the George Washington University report, Dr Carlos Santos-Burgoa.

The shadow chancellor John McDonnell recently claimed 'for the first time shareholders now take a greater share of national income than workers'. But is it true? Tim Harford speaks to The Financial Times' economics editor Chris Giles.

Loyal listener David from Sheffield has been in touch to query a claim he heard on BBC Radio 4's Start the Week that more people visit museums than attend football matches. Ruth Alexander finds out if we really do favour culture over the nation's game.

On the 20 September 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, where residents are United States citizens. George Washington University has published a report – commissioned by the Puerto Rican government – claiming that the hurricane accounted for nearly 3,000 deaths in Puerto Rico. President Trump disputed these official figures, tweeting that the Democrats were inflating the death toll to 'make me look as bad as possible'. So, who is right, and how do you determine who died as a result of a natural disaster? Tim Harford speaks to the lead investigator of the George Washington University report, Dr Carlos Santos-Burgoa.

The shadow chancellor John McDonnell recently claimed 'for the first time shareholders now take a greater share of national income than workers'. But is it true? Tim Harford speaks to The Financial Times’ economics editor Chris Giles.

Loyal listener David from Sheffield has been in touch to query a claim he heard on BBC Radio 4’s Start the Week that more people visit museums than attend football matches. Ruth Alexander finds out if we really do favour culture over the nation’s game.

From the 10th July to the 31st of October 1940 the skies above Britain were a battle zone. The German Luftwaffe launched large scale attacks aiming to reach London, they were held back and ultimately defeated by the Royal Air Force which included many nationalities. The bravery of the pilots – known as ‘The Few’ - cannot be disputed but is it really true that the average life expectancy of a spitfire pilot during the Battle of Britain was just four weeks, as is often claimed. Tim Harford and Lizzy McNeill look into the statistics and consider which of the armed forces had the highest death rate.

Does domestic violence increase by 30% when England loses a World Cup match? It’s a claim that’s often made and has most recently heard on the Freakonomics podcast. But is it true?

Is the tonic wine Buckfast really linked to 40 per cent of arrests in Scotland, as the website LADbible claims? Jordan Dunbar discovers the numbers are much exaggerated.

A listener noticed something rather strange while tucking into a bowl of his favourite cereal: “Sainsbury's Blueberry Wheaties purport to contain 72% wheat and 35% blueberry filling. This makes 107%. When I put this to Sainsbury's, I am met with incomprehension. ‘What's wrong?’ they say, he emails. We investigate, and find out the supermarket is not making a mathematical mistake.

And, has there been a rapid resurgence in the number of babies being named Ian?

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Tim Harford on Spitfire pilots, and whether football triggers violence in the home.

Series devoted to the world of numbers.

From the 10th July to the 31st of October 1940 the skies above Britain were a battle zone. The German Luftwaffe launched large scale attacks aiming to reach London, they were held back and ultimately defeated by the Royal Air Force which included many nationalities. The bravery of the pilots ? known as ?The Few? - cannot be disputed but is it really true that the average life expectancy of a spitfire pilot during the Battle of Britain was just four weeks, as is often claimed. Tim Harford and Lizzy McNeill look into the statistics and consider which of the armed forces had the highest death rate.

Does domestic violence increase by 30% when England loses a World Cup match? It?s a claim that?s often made and has most recently heard on the Freakonomics podcast. But is it true?

A listener noticed something rather strange while tucking into a bowl of his favourite cereal: ?Sainsbury's Blueberry Wheaties purport to contain 72% wheat and 35% blueberry filling. This makes 107%. When I put this to Sainsbury's, I am met with incomprehension. ?What's wrong?? they say, he emails. We investigate, and find out the supermarket is not making a mathematical mistake.

From the 10th July to the 31st of October 1940 the skies above Britain were a battle zone. The German Luftwaffe launched large scale attacks aiming to reach London, they were held back and ultimately defeated by the Royal Air Force which included many nationalities. The bravery of the pilots – known as ‘The Few' - cannot be disputed but is it really true that the average life expectancy of a spitfire pilot during the Battle of Britain was just four weeks, as is often claimed. Tim Harford and Lizzy McNeill look into the statistics and consider which of the armed forces had the highest death rate.

Does domestic violence increase by 30% when England loses a World Cup match? It's a claim that's often made and has most recently heard on the Freakonomics podcast. But is it true?

A listener noticed something rather strange while tucking into a bowl of his favourite cereal: “Sainsbury's Blueberry Wheaties purport to contain 72% wheat and 35% blueberry filling. This makes 107%. When I put this to Sainsbury's, I am met with incomprehension. ‘What's wrong?' they say, he emails. We investigate, and find out the supermarket is not making a mathematical mistake.

A listener noticed something rather strange while tucking into a bowl of his favourite cereal: ?Sainsbury's Blueberry Wheaties purport to contain 72% wheat and 35% blueberry filling. This makes 107%. When I put this to Sainsbury's, I am met with incomprehension. ?What's wrong?? they say, he emails. We investigate, and find out the supermarket is not making a mathematical mistake.

A listener noticed something rather strange while tucking into a bowl of his favourite cereal: “Sainsbury's Blueberry Wheaties purport to contain 72% wheat and 35% blueberry filling. This makes 107%. When I put this to Sainsbury's, I am met with incomprehension. ‘What's wrong?' they say,' he emails. We investigate, and find out the supermarket is not making a mathematical mistake.

Series devoted to the world of numbers.

This week BBC Radio 4’s All in the Mind programme announced the results of The Loneliness Experiment. It was a large survey conducted by the programme in collaboration with the Wellcome Collection. The largest survey into the issue of loneliness to date, said All in the Mind, while the accompanying BBC press release reported that “The survey results indicate that 16-24 year olds experience loneliness more often and more intensely than any other age group. 40% of respondents aged 16-24 reported feeling lonely often or very often, while only 29% of people aged 65-74 and 27% of people aged over 75 said the same.?? In the editors' notes, the press release cautions that “This was a self-selecting sample, so people experiencing loneliness might have been more attracted to take part, inflating reported levels of loneliness.?? But much of the reporting by other BBC outlets and the wider media was not so restrained. Tim Harford speaks to Deirdre Toher from the University of the West of England about why the survey's results need careful interpretation.

Listeners have been asking us to explain the schools funding row. When headteachers marched in protest at school spending last week, the Minister for School Standards, Nick Gibb, went on BBC Radio 4's Today programme to say We are spending record amounts on our school funding. We are the third highest spender on education in the OECD??. BBC Education correspondent Sean Coughlan explains how he discovered that the OECD figure includes university tuition fees paid by students.

Is it true that Polish Pilots Shot down 60% of German Aircraft on Battle of Britain Day? Lizzie McNeill fact-checks this claim found on the side of a van.

New figures reveal that same-sex divorce rates are higher among women than among men. Tim Harford discusses why this may be with Marina Adshade, economist at the Vancouver School of Economics and author of “Dirty Money??, a book about the economics of sex and love.

Plus, what makes a listener loyal? A nine-year debate rages on.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Image: A single fan sits in the stands before a college football game

Credit: Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Listeners have been asking us to explain the schools funding row. When headteachers marched in protest at school spending last week, the Minister for School Standards, Nick Gibb, went on BBC Radio 4's Today programme to say 'We are spending record amounts on our school funding. We are the third highest spender on education in the OECD??. BBC Education correspondent Sean Coughlan explains how he discovered that the OECD figure includes university tuition fees paid by students.

Is it true that 'Polish Pilots Shot down 60% of German Aircraft on Battle of Britain Day'? Lizzie McNeill fact-checks this claim found on the side of a van.

This week BBC Radio 4?s All in the Mind programme announced the results of The Loneliness Experiment. It was a large survey conducted by the programme in collaboration with the Wellcome Collection. The largest survey into the issue of loneliness to date, said All in the Mind, while the accompanying BBC press release reported that ?The survey results indicate that 16-24 year olds experience loneliness more often and more intensely than any other age group. 40% of respondents aged 16-24 reported feeling lonely often or very often, while only 29% of people aged 65-74 and 27% of people aged over 75 said the same.?? In the editors' notes, the press release cautions that ?This was a self-selecting sample, so people experiencing loneliness might have been more attracted to take part, inflating reported levels of loneliness.?? But much of the reporting by other BBC outlets and the wider media was not so restrained. Tim Harford speaks to Deirdre Toher from the University of the West of England about why the survey's results need careful interpretation.

Listeners have been asking us to explain the schools funding row. When headteachers marched in protest at school spending last week, the Minister for School Standards, Nick Gibb, went on BBC Radio 4's Today programme to say We are spending record amounts on our school funding. We are the third highest spender on education in the OECD??. BBC Education correspondent Sean Coughlan explains how he discovered that the OECD figure includes university tuition fees paid by students.

Is it true that Polish Pilots Shot down 60% of German Aircraft on Battle of Britain Day? Lizzie McNeill fact-checks this claim found on the side of a van.

New figures reveal that same-sex divorce rates are higher among women than among men. Tim Harford discusses why this may be with Marina Adshade, economist at the Vancouver School of Economics and author of ?Dirty Money??, a book about the economics of sex and love.

This week BBC Radio 4's All in the Mind programme announced the results of The Loneliness Experiment. It was a large survey conducted by the programme in collaboration with the Wellcome Collection. The largest survey into the issue of loneliness to date, said All in the Mind, while the accompanying BBC press release reported that “The survey results indicate that 16-24 year olds experience loneliness more often and more intensely than any other age group. 40% of respondents aged 16-24 reported feeling lonely often or very often, while only 29% of people aged 65-74 and 27% of people aged over 75 said the same.?? In the editors' notes, the press release cautions that “This was a self-selecting sample, so people experiencing loneliness might have been more attracted to take part, inflating reported levels of loneliness.?? But much of the reporting by other BBC outlets and the wider media was not so restrained. Tim Harford speaks to Deirdre Toher from the University of the West of England about why the survey's results need careful interpretation.

This week BBC Radio 4's All in the Mind programme announced the results of The Loneliness Experiment. It was a large survey conducted by the programme in collaboration with the Wellcome Collection. The largest survey into the issue of loneliness to date, said All in the Mind, while the accompanying BBC press release reported that ?The survey results indicate that 16-24 year olds experience loneliness more often and more intensely than any other age group. 40% of respondents aged 16-24 reported feeling lonely often or very often, while only 29% of people aged 65-74 and 27% of people aged over 75 said the same.?? In the editors' notes, the press release cautions that ?This was a self-selecting sample, so people experiencing loneliness might have been more attracted to take part, inflating reported levels of loneliness.?? But much of the reporting by other BBC outlets and the wider media was not so restrained. Tim Harford speaks to Deirdre Toher from the University of the West of England about why the survey's results need careful interpretation.

This week BBC Radio 4’s All in the Mind programme announced the results of The Loneliness Experiment. It was a large survey conducted by the programme in collaboration with the Wellcome Collection. The largest survey into the issue of loneliness to date, said All in the Mind, while the accompanying BBC press release reported that “The survey results indicate that 16-24 year olds experience loneliness more often and more intensely than any other age group. 40% of respondents aged 16-24 reported feeling lonely often or very often, while only 29% of people aged 65-74 and 27% of people aged over 75 said the same.” In the editors' notes, the press release cautions that “This was a self-selecting sample, so people experiencing loneliness might have been more attracted to take part, inflating reported levels of loneliness.” But much of the reporting by other BBC outlets and the wider media was not so restrained. Tim Harford speaks to Deirdre Toher from the University of the West of England about why the survey's results need careful interpretation.

Listeners have been asking us to explain the schools funding row. When headteachers marched in protest at school spending last week, the Minister for School Standards, Nick Gibb, went on BBC Radio 4's Today programme to say 'We are spending record amounts on our school funding. We are the third highest spender on education in the OECD”. BBC Education correspondent Sean Coughlan explains how he discovered that the OECD figure includes university tuition fees paid by students.

New figures reveal that same-sex divorce rates are higher among women than among men. Tim Harford discusses why this may be with Marina Adshade, economist at the Vancouver School of Economics and author of “Dirty Money”, a book about the economics of sex and love.

This week BBC Radio 4?s All in the Mind programme announced the results of The Loneliness Experiment. It was a large survey conducted by the programme in collaboration with the Wellcome Collection. The largest survey into the issue of loneliness to date, said All in the Mind, while the accompanying BBC press release reported that ?The survey results indicate that 16-24 year olds experience loneliness more often and more intensely than any other age group. 40% of respondents aged 16-24 reported feeling lonely often or very often, while only 29% of people aged 65-74 and 27% of people aged over 75 said the same.? In the editors' notes, the press release cautions that ?This was a self-selecting sample, so people experiencing loneliness might have been more attracted to take part, inflating reported levels of loneliness.? But much of the reporting by other BBC outlets and the wider media was not so restrained. Tim Harford speaks to Deirdre Toher from the University of the West of England about why the survey's results need careful interpretation.

Listeners have been asking us to explain the schools funding row. When headteachers marched in protest at school spending last week, the Minister for School Standards, Nick Gibb, went on BBC Radio 4's Today programme to say 'We are spending record amounts on our school funding. We are the third highest spender on education in the OECD?. BBC Education correspondent Sean Coughlan explains how he discovered that the OECD figure includes university tuition fees paid by students.

New figures reveal that same-sex divorce rates are higher among women than among men. Tim Harford discusses why this may be with Marina Adshade, economist at the Vancouver School of Economics and author of ?Dirty Money?, a book about the economics of sex and love.

This week BBC Radio 4's All in the Mind programme announced the results of The Loneliness Experiment. It was a large survey conducted by the programme in collaboration with the Wellcome Collection. The largest survey into the issue of loneliness to date, said All in the Mind, while the accompanying BBC press release reported that `The survey results indicate that 16-24 year olds experience loneliness more often and more intensely than any other age group. 40% of respondents aged 16-24 reported feeling lonely often or very often, while only 29% of people aged 65-74 and 27% of people aged over 75 said the same.` In the editors' notes, the press release cautions that `This was a self-selecting sample, so people experiencing loneliness might have been more attracted to take part, inflating reported levels of loneliness.` But much of the reporting by other BBC outlets and the wider media was not so restrained. Tim Harford speaks to Deirdre Toher from the University of the West of England about why the survey's results need careful interpretation.

Listeners have been asking us to explain the schools funding row. When headteachers marched in protest at school spending last week, the Minister for School Standards, Nick Gibb, went on BBC Radio 4's Today programme to say 'We are spending record amounts on our school funding. We are the third highest spender on education in the OECD`. BBC Education correspondent Sean Coughlan explains how he discovered that the OECD figure includes university tuition fees paid by students.

New figures reveal that same-sex divorce rates are higher among women than among men. Tim Harford discusses why this may be with Marina Adshade, economist at the Vancouver School of Economics and author of `Dirty Money`, a book about the economics of sex and love.

It was reported in the New Year that the government might have to bring in a sugar tax to control how much sugar we’re eating. But how much sugar are we eating, and how does it really affect our health? Tim Harford talks to Chris Snowdon of the Institute of Economic Affairs and Louis Levy, head of nutrition science at Public Health England.

If you noticed that your train ticket got more expensive this January and wondered where all that money goes, wonder no more. We find out if 98p of every £1 spent on fares is actually ‘invested back into the railway’ as the BBC reported. And head of the Royal Statistical Society, Professor Deborah Ashby reveals whether all this money means the train service is getting any better. Spoiler alert: it’s definitely not.

Was your childhood filled with games of cops and robbers, stuck in the mud and 40:40 In? Do you remember long summer days filled with playing Pooh Sticks, building sandcastles or hunting invisible monsters? If so, then according to research commissioned by Persil, you should count yourself lucky; they claim that the majority of children in the UK now spend less time out of doors than prisoners. A shocking statistic if true, but is it?

Which planet is closest to Earth? A Sky at Night programme said it was Mars. But a listener isn't so sure. Tim Harford talks to David A. Rothery, professor of planetary geosciences at the Open University.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Tim Harford on sugar, train fares, children's outdoors play and Earth's closest neighbour.

Series devoted to the world of numbers.

It was reported in the New Year that the government might have to bring in a sugar tax to control how much sugar we?re eating. But how much sugar are we eating, and how does it really affect our health? Tim Harford talks to Chris Snowdon of the Institute of Economic Affairs and Louis Levy, head of nutrition science at Public Health England.

If you noticed that your train ticket got more expensive this January and wondered where all that money goes, wonder no more. We find out if 98p of every £1 spent on fares is actually ?invested back into the railway? as the BBC reported. And head of the Royal Statistical Society, Professor Deborah Ashby reveals whether all this money means the train service is getting any better. Spoiler alert: it?s definitely not.

It was reported in the New Year that the government might have to bring in a sugar tax to control how much sugar we're eating. But how much sugar are we eating, and how does it really affect our health? Tim Harford talks to Chris Snowdon of the Institute of Economic Affairs and Louis Levy, head of nutrition science at Public Health England.

If you noticed that your train ticket got more expensive this January and wondered where all that money goes, wonder no more. We find out if 98p of every £1 spent on fares is actually ‘invested back into the railway' as the BBC reported. And head of the Royal Statistical Society, Professor Deborah Ashby reveals whether all this money means the train service is getting any better. Spoiler alert: it's definitely not.

If you noticed that your train ticket got more expensive this January and wondered where all that money goes, wonder no more. We find out if 98p of every £1 spent on fares is actually ?invested back into the railway? as the BBC reported. And head of the Royal Statistical Society, Professor Deborah Ashby reveals whether all this money means the train service is getting any better. Spoiler alert: it's definitely not.

Have scores of MPs really been accused or arrested for violent and financial crimes? We fact check the claim, which is circulating on social media, and find it wholly inaccurate. The question remains how disinformation like this can be successfully countered. The fact-checking charity Fullfact has announced a new partnership with Facebook, which aims to make it easier for social media users to distinguish fact from fiction. Tim Harford talks to Fullfact director Will Moy about the scale of the challenge before them.

Tim Harford considers the legacy of Jack Bogle, the founder of the first index mutual fund, who has died, aged 89.

How much does the average Brit really drink over the Christmas period? Some articles claim it’s as high as ‘67 units of alcohol a week’, almost 5 times our recommended weekly limit. Tim Harford and Bethan Head look at the true numbers behind our festive boozing habits.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Tim Harford asks whether 1.7% of people are intersex, and examines false claims about MPs.

How much does the average Brit really drink over the Christmas period? Some articles claim it?s as high as ?67 units of alcohol a week?, almost 5 times our recommended weekly limit. Tim Harford and Bethan Head look at the true numbers behind our festive boozing habits.

How much does the average Brit really drink over the Christmas period? Some articles claim it's as high as ‘67 units of alcohol a week', almost 5 times our recommended weekly limit. Tim Harford and Bethan Head look at the true numbers behind our festive boozing habits.

How much does the average Brit really drink over the Christmas period? Some articles claim it's as high as ?67 units of alcohol a week?, almost 5 times our recommended weekly limit. Tim Harford and Bethan Head look at the true numbers behind our festive boozing habits.

An impressive 41 pupils from a state school in East London have secured offers to study at Oxford or Cambridge, it was reported this week. Tim Harford considers what this achievement tells us about the education system as a whole (This item appears only in the longer edition, broadcast on Sunday).

It was reported this week that the number of people in work in the UK has reached a record high of 32.54 million. But is it true that the numbers include people who just work one hour a week and, if so, are they making the jobs situation look better than it really is? Tim Harford talks to Jonathan Athow, the deputy national statistician and director general of economic statistics at the Office of National Statistics.

A listener writes to ask whether January is the riskiest month for suicides. Tim Harford discusses what the data can tell us with Nav Kapur, professor of psychiatry and population health at the University of Manchester. Samaritans is available 24 hours a day for anyone struggling to cope and provide a safe place to talk. Phone: 116 123 or visit the Samaritans website: samaritans.org

And which is likeliest – a white Christmas or a white Easter? More or Less addresses a question first raised on BBC Radio 4’s The Unbelievable Truth.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

(image: a young woman suffering from domestic violence stands alone in the bay window of her home. Credit: In Pictures Ltd./Corbis/Getty Images)

Tim Harford on domestic violence, employment numbers, and the chance of a white Easter.

A Home Office analysis has calculated that domestic violence cost more than £66bn in England and Wales in the year ending 31 March 2017. But how has this been worked out, and does it all add up? And is this a useful way to capture the harms of violence in the home? Tim Harford and the BBC?s head of statistics, Robert Cuffe, examine the numbers.

And which is likeliest ? a white Christmas or a white Easter? More or Less addresses a question first raised on BBC Radio 4?s The Unbelievable Truth.

Series devoted to the world of numbers.

A Home Office analysis has calculated that domestic violence cost more than £66bn in England and Wales in the year ending 31 March 2017. But how has this been worked out, and does it all add up? And is this a useful way to capture the harms of violence in the home? Tim Harford and the BBC's head of statistics, Robert Cuffe, examine the numbers.

And which is likeliest – a white Christmas or a white Easter? More or Less addresses a question first raised on BBC Radio 4's The Unbelievable Truth.

And which is likeliest ? a white Christmas or a white Easter? More or Less addresses a question first raised on BBC Radio 4's The Unbelievable Truth.

And which is likeliest - a white Christmas or a white Easter? More or Less addresses a question first raised on BBC Radio 4's The Unbelievable Truth.

The inflation rate in Venezuela will reach 10 million per cent in 2019, according to the International Monetary Fund. But is that correct, and how does the situation compare to other episodes of hyperinflation in history? Tim Harford speaks to Professor Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in the US, and Mariana Zuniga, a journalist based in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas.

Thousands of people fancy you! Listener Helen was bemused to discover she had 15,000 likes on the dating app Tinder. She doubted the numbers, describing herself as ‘average-looking on a good day’ and asked More or Less to investigate. Phoebe Keane takes on the case and uncovers a few surprises. Tim Harford talks to Dr Marina Adshade of the University of British Columbia in Canada about the stats behind swiping.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Tim Harford on Holocaust deniers, food prices in Venezuela and dating app statistics.

Series devoted to the world of numbers.

Is it true that one in 20 adults in Britain don?t believe the Holocaust took place? Those are the findings of a survey commissioned by The Holocaust Memorial Day Trust. But Professor Peter Lynn of Essex University explains why the survey is unlikely to be accurate.

Thousands of people fancy you! Listener Helen was bemused to discover she had 15,000 likes on the dating app Tinder. She doubted the numbers, describing herself as ?average-looking on a good day? and asked More or Less to investigate. Phoebe Keane takes on the case and uncovers a few surprises. Tim Harford talks to Dr Marina Adshade of the University of British Columbia in Canada about the stats behind swiping.

Is it true that one in 20 adults in Britain don't believe the Holocaust took place? Those are the findings of a survey commissioned by The Holocaust Memorial Day Trust. But Professor Peter Lynn of Essex University explains why the survey is unlikely to be accurate.

Thousands of people fancy you! Listener Helen was bemused to discover she had 15,000 likes on the dating app Tinder. She doubted the numbers, describing herself as ‘average-looking on a good day' and asked More or Less to investigate. Phoebe Keane takes on the case and uncovers a few surprises. Tim Harford talks to Dr Marina Adshade of the University of British Columbia in Canada about the stats behind swiping.

“‘Suicidal generation’: tragic toll of teens doubles in 8 years.?? This was a headline in the Sunday Times a few days ago. Is it true? Not really. Tim Harford fact checks the claim with journalist Tom Chivers.

This week, the BBC and other media outlets ran headlines saying that a third of firms are considering a move abroad because of Brexit. The stories were based on a survey from the Institute of Directors. Tim Harford is not convinced.

Is it true, as heard on the Today programme, that on average women's clothes stay in their wardrobes for only five weeks? Tim Harford examines this flimsy little statistic.

Last month, the government announced its clean air strategy for 2019. Listeners were surprised to find their cosy wood-burning stoves were branded high polluters. By popular request, Tim Harford scrutinises the numbers.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Tim Harford on teen suicide, Brexit business moves and wood-burner pollution

??Suicidal generation?: tragic toll of teens doubles in 8 years.?? This was a headline in the Sunday Times a few days ago. Is it true? Not really. Tim Harford fact checks the claim with journalist Tom Chivers.

“‘Suicidal generation': tragic toll of teens doubles in 8 years.?? This was a headline in the Sunday Times a few days ago. Is it true? Not really. Tim Harford fact checks the claim with journalist Tom Chivers.

“‘Suicidal generation’: tragic toll of teens doubles in 8 years.” This was a headline in the Sunday Times a few days ago. Is it true? Not really. Tim Harford fact checks the claim with journalist Tom Chivers.

??Suicidal generation?: tragic toll of teens doubles in 8 years.? This was a headline in the Sunday Times a few days ago. Is it true? Not really. Tim Harford fact checks the claim with journalist Tom Chivers.

`‘Suicidal generation': tragic toll of teens doubles in 8 years.` This was a headline in the Sunday Times a few days ago. Is it true? Not really. Tim Harford fact checks the claim with journalist Tom Chivers.

The Labour Party says Victorian diseases are returning, but is austerity really to blame? Lizzie McNeill and Tim Harford find the case is not proven.

Stand-up comedian Matt Parker talks to Tim Harford about his new book, Humble Pi – a collection of mathematical errors and their consequences.

Will moderate alcohol consumption really damage your mental health to the tune of £2,400 a year, as The Sunday Times claims? Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter doesn’t think so.

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Tim Harford on climate change, Victorian diseases, maths mistakes and alcohol consumption.

Series devoted to the world of numbers.

On Tuesday, Today programme listeners woke up to the news that the think tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research, had new statistics that showed the scale of the damage we humans are doing to the planet. It said that since 2005, the number of floods across the world has increased by 15 times, extreme temperature events by 20 times, and wildfires seven-fold. However, the IPPR soon corrected that date to 1950, blaming a ?typo?, but climate change researcher and author of Six Degrees Mark Lynas tells Tim Harford why he thinks the IPPR?s numbers are still wrong.

Stand-up comedian Matt Parker talks to Tim Harford about his new book, Humble Pi ? a collection of mathematical errors and their consequences.

Will moderate alcohol consumption really damage your mental health to the tune of £2,400 a year, as The Sunday Times claims? Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter doesn?t think so.

On Tuesday, Today programme listeners woke up to the news that the think tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research, had new statistics that showed the scale of the damage we humans are doing to the planet. It said that since 2005, the number of floods across the world has increased by 15 times, extreme temperature events by 20 times, and wildfires seven-fold. However, the IPPR soon corrected that date to 1950, blaming a ‘typo', but climate change researcher and author of Six Degrees Mark Lynas tells Tim Harford why he thinks the IPPR's numbers are still wrong.

Will moderate alcohol consumption really damage your mental health to the tune of £2,400 a year, as The Sunday Times claims? Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter doesn't think so.

On Tuesday, Today programme listeners woke up to the news that the think tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research, had new statistics that showed the scale of the damage we humans are doing to the planet. It said that since 2005, the number of floods across the world has increased by 15 times, extreme temperature events by 20 times, and wildfires seven-fold. However, the IPPR soon corrected that date to 1950, blaming a ?typo?, but climate change researcher and author of Six Degrees Mark Lynas tells Tim Harford why he thinks the IPPR's numbers are still wrong.

Stand-up comedian Matt Parker talks to Tim Harford about his new book, Humble Pi - a collection of mathematical errors and their consequences.

A heatwave struck the UK over Easter – and in fact Easter Monday was declared the hottest on record in the UK. But listeners asked - is it that surprising that it was the warmest when the date fell so late in April? We crunch the numbers supplied by the Met Office.

Insectageddon

Insects live all around us and if a recent scientific review is anything to go by, then they are on the path to extinction. The analysis found that more than 40% of insect species are decreasing and that a decline rate of 2.5% a year suggests they could disappear in 100 years. And as some headlines in February warned of the catastrophic collapse of nature, some More or Less listeners questioned the findings. Is insect life really in trouble?

Collecting income tax from the 1%

Recently Lord Sugar said in a Tweet “The fact is if you taxed everyone earning over £150k at a rate of 70% it would not raise enough to pay for 5% of the NHS.?? Is that true? Helen Miller, Deputy Director and head of tax at the Institute for Fiscal Studies looks at how much such a policy might raise from the 1% of tax payers who earn over £150,000.

Where is Scotland’s highest village?

A battle is brewing in the Southern Scottish uplands between two rival villages. How can statistics help determine which village should take the crown? Wanlockhead and Leadhills both lay claim to the title of Scotland’s highest village but there can only be one winner. More or Less attempts to settle the age old dispute once and for all.

Should we be surprised Easter Monday was the hottest recorded?

A heatwave struck the UK over Easter ? and in fact Easter Monday was declared the hottest on record in the UK. But listeners asked - is it that surprising that it was the warmest when the date fell so late in April? We crunch the numbers supplied by the Met Office.

Recently Lord Sugar said in a Tweet ?The fact is if you taxed everyone earning over £150k at a rate of 70% it would not raise enough to pay for 5% of the NHS.?? Is that true? Helen Miller, Deputy Director and head of tax at the Institute for Fiscal Studies looks at how much such a policy might raise from the 1% of tax payers who earn over £150,000.

Where is Scotland?s highest village?

A battle is brewing in the Southern Scottish uplands between two rival villages. How can statistics help determine which village should take the crown? Wanlockhead and Leadhills both lay claim to the title of Scotland?s highest village but there can only be one winner. More or Less attempts to settle the age old dispute once and for all.

Where is Scotland's highest village?

A battle is brewing in the Southern Scottish uplands between two rival villages. How can statistics help determine which village should take the crown? Wanlockhead and Leadhills both lay claim to the title of Scotland's highest village but there can only be one winner. More or Less attempts to settle the age old dispute once and for all.

Recently Lord Sugar said in a Tweet “The fact is if you taxed everyone earning over £150k at a rate of 70% it would not raise enough to pay for 5% of the NHS.” Is that true? Helen Miller, Deputy Director and head of tax at the Institute for Fiscal Studies looks at how much such a policy might raise from the 1% of tax payers who earn over £150,000.

Recently Lord Sugar said in a Tweet ?The fact is if you taxed everyone earning over £150k at a rate of 70% it would not raise enough to pay for 5% of the NHS.? Is that true? Helen Miller, Deputy Director and head of tax at the Institute for Fiscal Studies looks at how much such a policy might raise from the 1% of tax payers who earn over £150,000.

A heatwave struck the UK over Easter - and in fact Easter Monday was declared the hottest on record in the UK. But listeners asked - is it that surprising that it was the warmest when the date fell so late in April? We crunch the numbers supplied by the Met Office.

Recently Lord Sugar said in a Tweet `The fact is if you taxed everyone earning over £150k at a rate of 70% it would not raise enough to pay for 5% of the NHS.` Is that true? Helen Miller, Deputy Director and head of tax at the Institute for Fiscal Studies looks at how much such a policy might raise from the 1% of tax payers who earn over £150,000.

There were some worrying figures in the news this week about the number of nurses in England and Wales who died by suicide over the last seven years. We try to work out what the numbers are really telling us.

Are 27 million birds killed a year by cats?

Newspapers reported this week that 27 million birds are killed by cats each year. We find out how this number - which might not really be 'news' - was calculated.

How rare are house shares?

A listener got in touch to say she was surprised to read that only 3% of people aged 18 to 34 live in a house share with other people. She feels it must be too low – but is she living in a London house-sharing bubble? We find out.

Proving that x% of y = y% of x

Why is it that 4% of 75 is the same as 75% of 4? Professor Jennifer Rogers from the University of Oxford joins Tim in the studio to explore a mind-blowing maths ‘trick’.

We look into sobering statistics about nurses and some curious claims about house-sharing.

Newspapers reported this week that 27 million birds are killed by cats each year. We find out how this number - which might not really be news - was calculated.

A listener got in touch to say she was surprised to read that only 3% of people aged 18 to 34 live in a house share with other people. She feels it must be too low ? but is she living in a London house-sharing bubble? We find out.

Why is it that 4% of 75 is the same as 75% of 4? Professor Jennifer Rogers from the University of Oxford joins Tim in the studio to explore a mind-blowing maths ?trick?.

Newspapers reported this week that 27 million birds are killed by cats each year. We find out how this number - which might not really be news - was calculated.

Why is it that 4% of 75 is the same as 75% of 4? Professor Jennifer Rogers from the University of Oxford joins Tim in the studio to explore a mind-blowing maths ‘trick'.

A listener got in touch to say she was surprised to read that only 3% of people aged 18 to 34 live in a house share with other people. She feels it must be too low - but is she living in a London house-sharing bubble? We find out.

This week it was reported that British people are having less sex than they used to. Similar statistics are cropping up elsewhere in the world too. But one US stat seemed particularly stark: the number of young men having no sex at all in the past year has tripled in a decade. But is it true?

No coal power for a week

There were many reports in the newspapers this week saying the UK has set a new record for the number of consecutive days generating energy without burning any coal. So where is our electricity coming from?

Missing people

Some listeners got in touch to say they were surprised to hear that a person is reported missing in the UK every 90 seconds. Dr Karen Shalev Greene of the Centre for the Study of Missing Persons joins us to explore the numbers.

In Mice

One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat – the fact that the research cited has only been carried out in mice. We ask him why he’s doing it.

Are we having less sex? And what happened to coal? (These items are unrelated.)

One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat ? the fact that the research cited has only been carried out in mice. We ask him why he?s doing it.

One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat ? the fact that the research cited has only been carried out in mice. We ask him why he?s doing it.

One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat – the fact that the research cited has only been carried out 'in mice'. We ask him why he's doing it.

One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat – the fact that the research cited has only been carried out in mice. We ask him why he's doing it.

One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat ? the fact that the research cited has only been carried out in mice. We ask him why he's doing it.

One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat ? the fact that the research cited has only been carried out in mice. We ask him why he's doing it.

One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat – the fact that the research cited has only been carried out 'in mice'. We ask him why he’s doing it.

One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat ? the fact that the research cited has only been carried out 'in mice'. We ask him why he?s doing it.

One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat - the fact that the research cited has only been carried out 'in mice'. We ask him why he's doing it.

Are deaths from heart disease on the rise?

This week the British Heart Foundation had us all stopping mid-biscuit with the news that the number of under 75s dying from cardiovascular disease is going up for the first time in half a century. It sounds like bad news – but is it?

Does Huawei contribute £1.7billion to the UK economy?

People were sceptical that the Chinese telecom company could contribute such a large amount to the UK economy. We take a deeper look at the number and discuss whether it is reasonable to include such a broad range of activities connected to the company to reach that figure.

Deaths from organised crime

The National Crime Agency (NCA) said this week that organised crime kills more people in the UK than terrorism, war and natural disasters combined. But what does the evidence say? The NCA also said that there are 181,000 offenders in the UK fueling serious and organised crime. That’s more than twice the strength of the British Army. We try to find out where those figures came from.

The absence of women’s lives in data

Do government and economic statistics capture the lives of women fairly? If not, does it matter? How could things be changed? Tim Harford speaks to Caroline Criado-Perez about her new book ‘Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men.’

Image: Human heart attack, illustration

Credit: Science Photo Library

Are more people dying from coronary disease? Plus how we need more economic data on women.

This week the British Heart Foundation had us all stopping mid-biscuit with the news that the number of under 75s dying from cardiovascular disease is going up for the first time in half a century. It sounds like bad news ? but is it?

The National Crime Agency (NCA) said this week that organised crime kills more people in the UK than terrorism, war and natural disasters combined. But what does the evidence say? The NCA also said that there are 181,000 offenders in the UK fueling serious and organised crime. That?s more than twice the strength of the British Army. We try to find out where those figures came from.

The absence of women?s lives in data

Do government and economic statistics capture the lives of women fairly? If not, does it matter? How could things be changed? Tim Harford speaks to Caroline Criado-Perez about her new book ?Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men.?

The National Crime Agency (NCA) said this week that organised crime kills more people in the UK than terrorism, war and natural disasters combined. But what does the evidence say? The NCA also said that there are 181,000 offenders in the UK fueling serious and organised crime. That's more than twice the strength of the British Army. We try to find out where those figures came from.

The absence of women's lives in data

This week the British Heart Foundation had us all stopping mid-biscuit with the news that the number of under 75s dying from cardiovascular disease is going up for the first time in half a century. It sounds like bad news - but is it?

The formula for a successful Eurovision song

Last weekend the UK entry to Eurovision came last. Pop writer Chris Lochery has been looking at the statistics to see what characteristics winning songs have. The data show him, he claims, exactly what the UK is doing wrong.

Criminalising Victorian gay men – a case of misinterpretation?

Radio 3’s Free Thinking ran an interview this week with academic Dr Naomi Wolf about her new book on 19th century attitudes to homosexuality. The presenter Dr Matthew Sweet challenged her on her statistics about prosecutions especially the idea that there had been dozens of executions in the mid-19th Century. He found that the figures she had cited were not quite what they seemed.

What’s the point of statins?

A loyal listener asks what difference taking statins makes in reducing his chances of suffering from a stroke or heart attack in the next 10 years. We ask GP and broadcaster Dr Margaret McCartney to explain.

The stats behind making a successful song, plus misunderstanding Victorian court records.

Radio 3's Free Thinking ran an interview this week with academic Dr Naomi Wolf about her new book on 19th century attitudes to homosexuality. The presenter Dr Matthew Sweet challenged her on her statistics about prosecutions especially the idea that there had been dozens of executions in the mid-19th Century. He found that the figures she had cited were not quite what they seemed.

What's the point of statins?

Criminalising Victorian gay men ? a case of misinterpretation?

Radio 3?s Free Thinking ran an interview this week with academic Dr Naomi Wolf about her new book on 19th century attitudes to homosexuality. The presenter Dr Matthew Sweet challenged her on her statistics about prosecutions especially the idea that there had been dozens of executions in the mid-19th Century. He found that the figures she had cited were not quite what they seemed.

What?s the point of statins?

Criminalising Victorian gay men - a case of misinterpretation?

Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander ask which country is the richest. Plus, we pose a multiple choice question about multiple choice questions.

And we’re joined by Professor David Spiegelhalter, who uses statistics to understand the behaviour of one of the world's most dangerous serial killers.

What does it mean to say that the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world?

And we're joined by Professor David Spiegelhalter, who uses statistics to understand the behaviour of one of the world's most dangerous serial killers.

This week More or Less goes to meet an army of loyal listeners ? and a rebellious clique of disloyal ones ? at the Hay Festival.

And we?re joined by Professor David Spiegelhalter, who uses statistics to understand the behaviour of one of the world's most dangerous serial killers.

This week More or Less goes to meet an army of loyal listeners - and a rebellious clique of disloyal ones - at the Hay Festival.

Arguing over university access in Scotland

Jo Swinson, the Liberal Democrat MP, was accused of using inaccurate statistics in a recent edition of BBC Question Time. She compared the numbers of people going to university in an area in Glasgow with an area in her own constituency, to raise a point about inequalities in Scottish education. Many people were cross about this especially those in the SNP, such as First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon and Deputy First Minister John Swinney. Education researcher Lucy Hunter Blackburn joins us to look at what she described as the strangest political argument she's seen over the years.

Do One in Two people get cancer?

Channel 4’s The Great British Bake Off recently ran a celebrity series raising money for charity. It ran with the statistics that one in two people will get cancer in their lifetime. Many listeners were surprised by this high number. We find out why this is.

The Hidden Half

Broadcaster Michael Blastland has written a book called ‘The Hidden Half’ about the things we fail to see when measuring things. Tim Harford sits down with him to talk about counting sheep and economic productivity.

Measuring happiness, university access in Scotland, plus will one in two get cancer?

Professor Paul Dolan told an audience at the Hay Festival that when married women are asked if they are happy – if their husbands were out of the room – they admitted to being miserable. Unfortunately, this was due to a misunderstanding of the American Time Use Survey which had a category called ‘Spouse Absent'. It turns out this does not mean that a husband has left the room while a wife is being surveyed, it means that the husband is living away from home at the moment – perhaps serving abroad with the military. So what can we say about the happiness of people who are married, single, with or without children?

Channel 4's The Great British Bake Off recently ran a celebrity series raising money for charity. It ran with the statistics that one in two people will get cancer in their lifetime. Many listeners were surprised by this high number. We find out why this is.

Broadcaster Michael Blastland has written a book called ‘The Hidden Half' about the things we fail to see when measuring things. Tim Harford sits down with him to talk about counting sheep and economic productivity.

Professor Paul Dolan told an audience at the Hay Festival that when married women are asked if they are happy ? if their husbands were out of the room ? they admitted to being miserable. Unfortunately, this was due to a misunderstanding of the American Time Use Survey which had a category called ?Spouse Absent?. It turns out this does not mean that a husband has left the room while a wife is being surveyed, it means that the husband is living away from home at the moment ? perhaps serving abroad with the military. So what can we say about the happiness of people who are married, single, with or without children?

Channel 4?s The Great British Bake Off recently ran a celebrity series raising money for charity. It ran with the statistics that one in two people will get cancer in their lifetime. Many listeners were surprised by this high number. We find out why this is.

Broadcaster Michael Blastland has written a book called ?The Hidden Half? about the things we fail to see when measuring things. Tim Harford sits down with him to talk about counting sheep and economic productivity.

Professor Paul Dolan told an audience at the Hay Festival that when married women are asked if they are happy - if their husbands were out of the room - they admitted to being miserable. Unfortunately, this was due to a misunderstanding of the American Time Use Survey which had a category called ‘Spouse Absent'. It turns out this does not mean that a husband has left the room while a wife is being surveyed, it means that the husband is living away from home at the moment - perhaps serving abroad with the military. So what can we say about the happiness of people who are married, single, with or without children?

Teenagers around the country have been getting their exam results in recent weeks but do they know whether the grades they receive are really accurate? The Times doesn’t think so. They ran a headline earlier this month that said that 48% of A Level results were wrong. Where did they get that number from and is it true? Ben Carter talks to Dennis Sherwood who’s been looking at the data.

The chances of giving birth

Charlotte, the producer of the show, is due to have a baby in mid-October. What are the chances she will give birth before the end of the series on October 4? Emily Oster, author of Cribsheet and Expecting Better crunches the numbers to find out how worried Tim Harford and the editor should be.

Chernobyl disaster deaths

The recent TV miniseries ‘Chernobyl’ has stirred up debate online about the accuracy of its portrayal of the explosion at a nuclear power plant in the former Soviet state of Ukraine. We fact-check the programme and try and explain why it so hard to say how many people will die because of the Chernobyl disaster.

Ethiopian trees – a world record?

In Ethiopia, the government says 350 million tree seedlings were planted in one day recently, claiming it broke the world record. It’s part of a wider plan to plant four billion this year. There’s been a lot of praise for the country’s efforts, but many have raised concerns about the numbers.

Was your A-level grade correct? Plus were 350m trees planted in one day in Ethiopia?

Teenagers around the country have been getting their exam results in recent weeks but do they know whether the grades they receive are really accurate? The Times doesn?t think so. They ran a headline earlier this month that said that 48% of A Level results were wrong. Where did they get that number from and is it true? Ben Carter talks to Dennis Sherwood who?s been looking at the data.

The recent TV miniseries ?Chernobyl? has stirred up debate online about the accuracy of its portrayal of the explosion at a nuclear power plant in the former Soviet state of Ukraine. We fact-check the programme and try and explain why it so hard to say how many people will die because of the Chernobyl disaster.

Ethiopian trees ? a world record?

In Ethiopia, the government says 350 million tree seedlings were planted in one day recently, claiming it broke the world record. It?s part of a wider plan to plant four billion this year. There?s been a lot of praise for the country?s efforts, but many have raised concerns about the numbers.

Teenagers around the country have been getting their exam results in recent weeks but do they know whether the grades they receive are really accurate? The Times doesn't think so. They ran a headline earlier this month that said that 48% of A Level results were wrong. Where did they get that number from and is it true? Ben Carter talks to Dennis Sherwood who's been looking at the data.

The recent TV miniseries ‘Chernobyl' has stirred up debate online about the accuracy of its portrayal of the explosion at a nuclear power plant in the former Soviet state of Ukraine. We fact-check the programme and try and explain why it so hard to say how many people will die because of the Chernobyl disaster.

In Ethiopia, the government says 350 million tree seedlings were planted in one day recently, claiming it broke the world record. It's part of a wider plan to plant four billion this year. There's been a lot of praise for the country's efforts, but many have raised concerns about the numbers.

Teenagers around the country have been getting their exam results in recent weeks but do they know whether the grades they receive are really accurate? The Times doesn?t think so. They ran a headline earlier this month that said that 48% of A Level results were wrong. Where did they get that number from and is it true? Ben Carter talks to Dennis Sherwood who's been looking at the data.

Ethiopian trees - a world record?

This year’s fires in Brazil have been the worst in 10 years, but are they really 85 percent worse than last year? Many media reports also mention that the Amazon is the lungs of the planet – producing 20 percent of the Earth’s oxygen. Tim Harford speaks to Daniel Nepstad, President of Earth Innovation Institute, to analyse what we know about the fires.

The state pension and pensioner poverty

Earlier this month The Guardian website ran an article that claimed that British basic pensions are 16% of average earnings. Our initial thoughts were that the number seemed low so we explored its origins and discovered that things weren’t quite as they seemed.

Are Americans really eating more than two burgers a day?

Listeners spotted a report that Americans are eating around 800 burgers a year. It seemed a fantastically high number – surely it couldn’t be true. We looked into it, and it isn’t. We work out what a better figure would be.

Prehistoric pets

The team fact checks Jurassic Park, a well-known film franchise to see whether we are close to having prehistoric animals among us.

What data should the government collect?

Tim Harford talks to Anna Powell-Smith, a data scientist who keeps a blog of her efforts at scouring through government databases to see what the government does and doesn’t record and why that matters.

Are forest fires in Brazil the worst in recent times? What is the state pension worth?

This year?s fires in Brazil have been the worst in 10 years, but are they really 85 percent worse than last year? Many media reports also mention that the Amazon is the lungs of the planet ? producing 20 percent of the Earth?s oxygen. Tim Harford speaks to Daniel Nepstad, President of Earth Innovation Institute, to analyse what we know about the fires.

Earlier this month The Guardian website ran an article that claimed that British basic pensions are 16% of average earnings. Our initial thoughts were that the number seemed low so we explored its origins and discovered that things weren?t quite as they seemed.

Listeners spotted a report that Americans are eating around 800 burgers a year. It seemed a fantastically high number ? surely it couldn?t be true. We looked into it, and it isn?t. We work out what a better figure would be.

Tim Harford talks to Anna Powell-Smith, a data scientist who keeps a blog of her efforts at scouring through government databases to see what the government does and doesn?t record and why that matters.

This year's fires in Brazil have been the worst in 10 years, but are they really 85 percent worse than last year? Many media reports also mention that the Amazon is the lungs of the planet – producing 20 percent of the Earth's oxygen. Tim Harford speaks to Daniel Nepstad, President of Earth Innovation Institute, to analyse what we know about the fires.

Earlier this month The Guardian website ran an article that claimed that British basic pensions are 16% of average earnings. Our initial thoughts were that the number seemed low so we explored its origins and discovered that things weren't quite as they seemed.

Listeners spotted a report that Americans are eating around 800 burgers a year. It seemed a fantastically high number – surely it couldn't be true. We looked into it, and it isn't. We work out what a better figure would be.

Tim Harford talks to Anna Powell-Smith, a data scientist who keeps a blog of her efforts at scouring through government databases to see what the government does and doesn't record and why that matters.

This year's fires in Brazil have been the worst in 10 years, but are they really 85 percent worse than last year? Many media reports also mention that the Amazon is the lungs of the planet ? producing 20 percent of the Earth's oxygen. Tim Harford speaks to Daniel Nepstad, President of Earth Innovation Institute, to analyse what we know about the fires.

This year's fires in Brazil have been the worst in 10 years, but are they really 85 percent worse than last year? Many media reports also mention that the Amazon is the lungs of the planet - producing 20 percent of the Earth's oxygen. Tim Harford speaks to Daniel Nepstad, President of Earth Innovation Institute, to analyse what we know about the fires.

Listeners spotted a report that Americans are eating around 800 burgers a year. It seemed a fantastically high number - surely it couldn't be true. We looked into it, and it isn't. We work out what a better figure would be.

Does ‘the science’ predict 6 billion deaths by the end of this century due to climate change? That’s what Roger Hallam, co-founder of environmental campaigners Extinction Rebellion said on an edition of the BBC’s HARDtalk programme last month. We take a look at the origins of that number and we talk to Andy Haines, Professor of Environmental Change and Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, whose estimates on the number of deaths ar More Or Less

Does ‘the science’ predict 6 billion deaths by the end of this century due to climate change? That’s what Roger Hallam, co-founder of environmental campaigners Extinction Rebellion said on an edition of the BBC’s HARDtalk programme last month. We take a look at the origins of that number and we talk to Andy Haines, Professor of Environmental Change and Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, whose estimates on the number of deaths ar

~More Or Less

Does ‘the science’ predict 6 billion deaths by the end of this century due to climate change? That’s what Roger Hallam, co-founder of environmental campaigners Extinction Rebellion said on an edition of the BBC’s HARDtalk programme last month. We take a look at the origins of that number and we talk to Andy Haines, Professor of Environmental Change and Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, whose estimates on the number of deaths ar

~More Or Less

Statistics published earlier this year led to headlines claiming that black women are five times more likely to die in childbirth than white women. But we find out that a lot of context has been lost in that statement. We look at the number of women who die, the reasons, and also discover that these death figures relate to a period spanning through pregnancy and the weeks afterwards – not just while women are in labour.

Are Taxi driver’s salaries faring well?

Price comparison website Compare the Market recently published a ranking of which professions have seen the largest salary increase since 2008. Our listeners were surprised to see that taxi drivers topped that list with an increase of 72% in ten years. The More or Less team never tire of fact checking so we’ve looked into the data to see whether this claim is wheely accurate.

Where are our boys? The Polish village that’s gone a decade without.

A one-road village in south west Poland made headlines across the world after they sent an all-female team of junior firefighters to a regional contest. The girls responded to questions by explaining that their village ‘has no boys’. Whilst not strictly true, they haven’t had a boy born in the village for a decade. The village is now on its twelfth girl in a row, but is it really that rare or significant?

A statistically good pop song

Kyle D Evans has taken a look at the 100 most popular recent pop songs in the UK to work out statistically the best ingredients to make his own. He looks at the most popular key and words used to pen and perform his own song.

Are black women five times more likely to die in childbirth? Plus making pop music.

Statistics published earlier this year led to headlines claiming that black women are five times more likely to die in childbirth than white women. But we find out that a lot of context has been lost in that statement. We look at the number of women who die, the reasons, and also discover that these death figures relate to a period spanning through pregnancy and the weeks afterwards ? not just while women are in labour.

Are Taxi driver?s salaries faring well?

Price comparison website Compare the Market recently published a ranking of which professions have seen the largest salary increase since 2008. Our listeners were surprised to see that taxi drivers topped that list with an increase of 72% in ten years. The More or Less team never tire of fact checking so we?ve looked into the data to see whether this claim is wheely accurate.

Where are our boys? The Polish village that?s gone a decade without.

A one-road village in south west Poland made headlines across the world after they sent an all-female team of junior firefighters to a regional contest. The girls responded to questions by explaining that their village ?has no boys?. Whilst not strictly true, they haven?t had a boy born in the village for a decade. The village is now on its twelfth girl in a row, but is it really that rare or significant?

Are Taxi driver's salaries faring well?

Price comparison website Compare the Market recently published a ranking of which professions have seen the largest salary increase since 2008. Our listeners were surprised to see that taxi drivers topped that list with an increase of 72% in ten years. The More or Less team never tire of fact checking so we've looked into the data to see whether this claim is wheely accurate.

Where are our boys? The Polish village that's gone a decade without.

A one-road village in south west Poland made headlines across the world after they sent an all-female team of junior firefighters to a regional contest. The girls responded to questions by explaining that their village ‘has no boys'. Whilst not strictly true, they haven't had a boy born in the village for a decade. The village is now on its twelfth girl in a row, but is it really that rare or significant?

Statistics published earlier this year led to headlines claiming that black women are five times more likely to die in childbirth than white women. But we find out that a lot of context has been lost in that statement. We look at the number of women who die, the reasons, and also discover that these death figures relate to a period spanning through pregnancy and the weeks afterwards – not just while women are in labour.

Are Taxi driver’s salaries faring well?

Price comparison website Compare the Market recently published a ranking of which professions have seen the largest salary increase since 2008. Our listeners were surprised to see that taxi drivers topped that list with an increase of 72% in ten years. The More or Less team never tire of fact checking so we’ve looked into the data to see whether this claim is wheely accurate.

Where are our boys? The Polish village that’s gone a decade without.

A one-road village in south west Poland made headlines across the world after they sent an all-female team of junior firefighters to a regional contest. The girls responded to questions by explaining that their village ‘has no boys’. Whilst not strictly true, they haven’t had a boy born in the village for a decade. The village is now on its twelfth girl in a row, but is it really that rare or significant?

A statistically good pop song

Kyle D Evans has taken a look at the 100 most popular recent pop songs in the UK to work out statistically the best ingredients to make his own. He looks at the most popular key and words used to pen and perform his own song.

Are black women five times more likely to die in childbirth? Plus making pop music.

Statistics published earlier this year led to headlines claiming that black women are five times more likely to die in childbirth than white women. But we find out that a lot of context has been lost in that statement. We look at the number of women who die, the reasons, and also discover that these death figures relate to a period spanning through pregnancy and the weeks afterwards ? not just while women are in labour.

Are Taxi driver?s salaries faring well?

Price comparison website Compare the Market recently published a ranking of which professions have seen the largest salary increase since 2008. Our listeners were surprised to see that taxi drivers topped that list with an increase of 72% in ten years. The More or Less team never tire of fact checking so we?ve looked into the data to see whether this claim is wheely accurate.

Where are our boys? The Polish village that?s gone a decade without.

A one-road village in south west Poland made headlines across the world after they sent an all-female team of junior firefighters to a regional contest. The girls responded to questions by explaining that their village ?has no boys?. Whilst not strictly true, they haven?t had a boy born in the village for a decade. The village is now on its twelfth girl in a row, but is it really that rare or significant?

Are Taxi driver's salaries faring well?

Price comparison website Compare the Market recently published a ranking of which professions have seen the largest salary increase since 2008. Our listeners were surprised to see that taxi drivers topped that list with an increase of 72% in ten years. The More or Less team never tire of fact checking so we've looked into the data to see whether this claim is wheely accurate.

Where are our boys? The Polish village that's gone a decade without.

A one-road village in south west Poland made headlines across the world after they sent an all-female team of junior firefighters to a regional contest. The girls responded to questions by explaining that their village ‘has no boys'. Whilst not strictly true, they haven't had a boy born in the village for a decade. The village is now on its twelfth girl in a row, but is it really that rare or significant?

Statistics published earlier this year led to headlines claiming that black women are five times more likely to die in childbirth than white women. But we find out that a lot of context has been lost in that statement. We look at the number of women who die, the reasons, and also discover that these death figures relate to a period spanning through pregnancy and the weeks afterwards - not just while women are in labour.

Sharks kill 12 humans a year but humans kill 11,417 sharks an hour. That’s the statistic used in a Facebook meme that’s doing the rounds. Is it true? Boris Worm, Professor of Marine Conservation and Biology at Dalhousie University reveals all.

Loyal listener Del emailed us to say that he’d read a blog published by Tradesman Saver that claimed that ‘New research reveals tradesmen earn thousands more than university graduates’. An interesting claim. Things aren’t quite as simple as they seem thoug More Or Less

Sharks kill 12 humans a year but humans kill 11,417 sharks an hour. That’s the statistic used in a Facebook meme that’s doing the rounds. Is it true? Boris Worm, Professor of Marine Conservation and Biology at Dalhousie University reveals all.

Loyal listener Del emailed us to say that he’d read a blog published by Tradesman Saver that claimed that ‘New research reveals tradesmen earn thousands more than university graduates’. An interesting claim. Things aren’t quite as simple as they seem thoug

~More Or Less

Sharks kill 12 humans a year but humans kill 11,417 sharks an hour. That’s the statistic used in a Facebook meme that’s doing the rounds. Is it true? Boris Worm, Professor of Marine Conservation and Biology at Dalhousie University reveals all.

Loyal listener Del emailed us to say that he’d read a blog published by Tradesman Saver that claimed that ‘New research reveals tradesmen earn thousands more than university graduates’. An interesting claim. Things aren’t quite as simple as they seem thoug

~More Or Less

Sharks kill 12 humans a year but humans kill 11,417 sharks an hour. That’s the statistic used in a Facebook meme that’s doing the rounds. Is it true? Boris Worm, Professor of Marine Conservation and Biology at Dalhousie University reveals all.

Loyal listener Del emailed us to say that he’d read a blog published by Tradesman Saver that claimed that ‘New research reveals tradesmen earn thousands more than university graduates’. An interesting claim. Things aren’t quite as simple as they seem thoug

~More Or Less

Loyal listener Viv emailed us after hearing a surprising statistic: ‘producing a leg of lamb releases the same amount of Co2 as a transatlantic flight’ – does this spell the end of the Easter Sunday roast or are the figures a bit woolly?

Yet more loyal listeners Charles and Lucy emailed us wondering if we could look into how many women in China give birth in hospitals, and whether it was true that 50% of births there are delivered by caesarean section. Oh, and we also mention guts and bacteria...

Does God hate men? Seems quite a controversial statement but when the statistics show that men are four times more likely to be struck by lightning than women you can’t help but wonder... Tim talks to Timandra Harkness to find out more.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Editor: Richard Vadon

Has Austerity caused 120 thousand deaths in the UK and does God hate men?

Loyal listener Viv emailed us after hearing a surprising statistic: ?producing a leg of lamb releases the same amount of Co2 as a transatlantic flight? ? does this spell the end of the Easter Sunday roast or are the figures a bit woolly?

Loyal listener Viv emailed us after hearing a surprising statistic: ‘producing a leg of lamb releases the same amount of Co2 as a transatlantic flight’ – does this spell the end of the Easter Sunday roast or are the figures a bit woolly?

Yet more loyal listeners Charles and Lucy emailed us wondering if we could look into how many women in China give birth in hospitals, and whether it was true that 50% of births there are delivered by caesarean section. Oh, and we also mention guts and bacteri More Or Less

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, has announced a plan to build 40 new hospitals in England – echoed by Boris Johnson in his conference speech this week. But media reports have been confused. How much will it all cost and when will these hospitals be built?

Amidst the impeachment controversy in the US, President Trump and the EU have been trading claims about who gives most to Ukraine, the country at the centre of the scandal. We weigh in.

And bacon sandwich-lovers have been left befuddled by a new report that suggests it’s okay to eat them after all. We explore the conflicting advice and find a philosophical answer.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Simon Maybin

Editor: Richard Vadon

Dissecting the government's hospitals announcement and President Trump's Ukraine claims.

Dissecting the government?s hospitals announcement, President Trump?s Ukraine claims, and mixed messages about eating processed meat.

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, has announced a plan to build 40 new hospitals in England ? echoed by Boris Johnson in his conference speech this week. But media reports have been confused. How much will it all cost and when will these hospitals be built?

And bacon sandwich-lovers have been left befuddled by a new report that suggests it?s okay to eat them after all. We explore the conflicting advice and find a philosophical answer.

Dissecting the government's hospitals announcement, President Trump's Ukraine claims, and mixed messages about eating processed meat.

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, has announced a plan to build 40 new hospitals in England - echoed by Boris Johnson in his conference speech this week. But media reports have been confused. How much will it all cost and when will these hospitals be built?

And bacon sandwich-lovers have been left befuddled by a new report that suggests it's okay to eat them after all. We explore the conflicting advice and find a philosophical answer.

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, has announced a plan to build 40 new hospitals in England – echoed by Boris Johnson in his conference speech this week. But media reports have been confused. How much will it all cost and when will these hospitals be built?

Amidst the impeachment controversy in the US, President Trump and the EU have been trading claims about who gives most to Ukraine, the country at the centre of the scandal. We weigh in.

And bacon sandwich-lovers have been left befuddled by a new report that suggests it’s okay to eat them after all. We explore the conflicting advice and find a philosophical answer.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Simon Maybin

Editor: Richard Vadon

Dissecting the government's hospitals announcement and President Trump's Ukraine claims.

Dissecting the government?s hospitals announcement, President Trump?s Ukraine claims, and mixed messages about eating processed meat.

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, has announced a plan to build 40 new hospitals in England ? echoed by Boris Johnson in his conference speech this week. But media reports have been confused. How much will it all cost and when will these hospitals be built?

And bacon sandwich-lovers have been left befuddled by a new report that suggests it?s okay to eat them after all. We explore the conflicting advice and find a philosophical answer.

Dissecting the government's hospitals announcement, President Trump's Ukraine claims, and mixed messages about eating processed meat.

And bacon sandwich-lovers have been left befuddled by a new report that suggests it's okay to eat them after all. We explore the conflicting advice and find a philosophical answer.

The UK's CO2 emissions peaked in the year 1973 and have declined by around 38% since 1990 - faster than any other major developed country. Zeke Hausfather from the Carbon Brief explains how we have achieved this, and whether there's a catch.

There's been much talk of Labour voters switching to the Conservatives in the December election. But the vote share of the Conservatives increased by just over one percentage point. The BBC's election guru, Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, explains what's going on.

The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, has released a report that said more than 8% of people aged 16-64 – some 3.4m people in total - have never had a paid job. That is a large increase since 1998 when, about 5.5% of the working age population, or 2 million people, had never worked.TIM HARFORD asks the report's author, Laura Gardiner, to tell us who these nearly 3.5 million people are who've never worked.

And...have we really entered a new decade?

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Editor: Richard Vadon

How many animals have died in Australia and how many Labour voters went Conservative?

Animal suffering has been a painful part of the story of Australia's bush fires. Headlines have claimed that more than a billion animals have perished. But some experts aren't convinced. Tim Harford speaks to Professor Kate Parr of Liverpool University to see how these figures were calculated, how accurate they are and whether some animals are more likely suffer fatalities than others.

The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, has released a report that said more than 8% of people aged 16-64 – some 3.4m people in total - have never had a paid job. That is a large increase since 1998 when, about 5.5% of the working age population, or 2 million people, had never worked. Tim Harford asks the report's author, Laura Gardiner, to tell us who these nearly 3.5 million people are who've never worked.

The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, has released a report that said more than 8% of people aged 16-64 ? some 3.4m people in total - have never had a paid job. That is a large increase since 1998 when, about 5.5% of the working age population, or 2 million people, had never worked.TIM HARFORD asks the report's author, Laura Gardiner, to tell us who these nearly 3.5 million people are who've never worked.

The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, has released a report that said more than 8% of people aged 16-64 ? some 3.4m people in total - have never had a paid job. That is a large increase since 1998 when, about 5.5% of the working age population, or 2 million people, had never worked. Tim Harford asks the report's author, Laura Gardiner, to tell us who these nearly 3.5 million people are who've never worked.

Animal suffering has been a painful part of the story of Australia's bush fires. Headlines have claimed that more than a billion animals have perished. But some experts aren’t convinced. Tim Harford speaks to Professor Kate Parr of Liverpool University to see how these figures were calculated, how accurate they are and whether some animals are more likely suffer fatalities than others.

The UK’s CO2 emissions peaked in the year 1973 and have declined by around 38% since 1990 - faster than any other major developed country. Zeke Hausfather from the Carbon Brief explains how we have achieved this, and whether there's a catch.

The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, has released a report that said more than 8% of people aged 16-64 – some 3.4m people in total - have never had a paid job. That is a large increase since 1998 when, about 5.5% of the working age population, or 2 million people, had never worked. Tim Harford asks the report’s author, Laura Gardiner, to tell us who these nearly 3.5 million people are who’ve never worked.

Animal suffering has been a painful part of the story of Australia's bush fires. Headlines have claimed that more than a billion animals have perished. But some experts aren?t convinced. Tim Harford speaks to Professor Kate Parr of Liverpool University to see how these figures were calculated, how accurate they are and whether some animals are more likely suffer fatalities than others.

The UK?s CO2 emissions peaked in the year 1973 and have declined by around 38% since 1990 - faster than any other major developed country. Zeke Hausfather from the Carbon Brief explains how we have achieved this, and whether there's a catch.

The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, has released a report that said more than 8% of people aged 16-64 ? some 3.4m people in total - have never had a paid job. That is a large increase since 1998 when, about 5.5% of the working age population, or 2 million people, had never worked. Tim Harford asks the report?s author, Laura Gardiner, to tell us who these nearly 3.5 million people are who?ve never worked.

The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, has released a report that said more than 8% of people aged 16-64 - some 3.4m people in total - have never had a paid job. That is a large increase since 1998 when, about 5.5% of the working age population, or 2 million people, had never worked. Tim Harford asks the report's author, Laura Gardiner, to tell us who these nearly 3.5 million people are who've never worked.

Quantifying justice in Japan, the cost of Brexit, alligator speed and Liverpool FC's luck

Quantifying justice in Japan, the cost of Brexit, alligator speed and Liverpool FC's luck

Presenter: TIM HARFORD

Producer: Neal Razzell

The carbon consequence of streaming, stats on sepsis and stretching BILL BRYSON to Pluto

The list of ways campaigners say we need to change our behaviour in response to climate change seems to grow every week. Now, streaming video is in the frame. We test the claim that watching 30 minutes of Netflix has the same carbon footprint as driving four miles. We hear scepticism about a report that sepsis is responsible for one in five deaths worldwide. Author BILL BRYSON stops by with a question about guns ? and gets quizzed about a number in his new book. And, how much sleep do we really need? Find out if we need more or less.

The list of ways campaigners say we need to change our behaviour in response to climate change seems to grow every week. Now, streaming video is in the frame. We test the claim that watching 30 minutes of Netflix has the same carbon footprint as driving four miles. We hear scepticism about a report that sepsis is responsible for one in five deaths worldwide. Author Bill Bryson stops by with a question about guns - and gets quizzed about a number in his new book. And, how much sleep do we really need? Find out if we need more or less.

Producer: Neal Razzell

Presenter: Tim Harford

Numbers that matter in measuring outbreaks, smelly stats around scent and more.

Health officials are urgently trying to contain the spread of a new coronavirus in China and beyond. We fact-check a particularly hyperbolic claim about its spread that?s been doing the rounds on social media. Elsewhere, a loyal listener has told us about a smelly statistic emanating from Radio 4. We nose around the relationship between our olfactory organs and emotions. And Bill Bryson reacts to our work answering his question about an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal about gun ownership and homicide rates.

Health officials are urgently trying to contain the spread of a new coronavirus in China and beyond. We fact-check a particularly hyperbolic claim about its spread that's been doing the rounds on social media. Elsewhere, a loyal listener has told us about a smelly statistic emanating from Radio 4. We nose around the relationship between our olfactory organs and emotions. And Bill Bryson reacts to our work answering his question about an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal about gun ownership and homicide rates.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Neal Razzell

Costing counter-terrorism, interrogating tomatoes, the UK's reading age, politics and GDP

Loyal More or Less listeners have questions about the Coronavirus Covid-19, and so do we – particularly given this week's news that the numbers have all changed: deaths are 20 per cent higher than we thought, and the number of cases has increased by a third. Tim Harford talks to Dr Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical lecturer at King’s College London about what we now know.

How much jam is there in the world? A listener asks and author Rob Eastaway tries his best to answer.

Artificial Intelligence – or AI for short – is often depicted in films in the shape of helpful droids, all-knowing computers or even malevolent ‘death bots’. In real life, we’re making leaps and bounds in this technology’s capabilities with sat-navs, and voice assistants like Alexa and Siri making frequent appearances in our daily lives. So, should we look forward to a future of AI best friends or fear the technology becoming too intelligent? Tim Harford talks to Janelle Shane, author of the book ‘You Look Like a Thing and I Love you’ about her experiments with AI and why the technology is really more akin to an earthworm than a high-functioning ‘death bot’.

Is the drop in the copper content of tomatoes down to a change in pesticide use? And just how nutritious are today's vegetables? Ethnobotanist and regular Gardeners’ Question Time panellist James Wong answers our listeners’ questions.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Ruth Alexander

Covid-19 stats, spreading jam far and wide, cooking with AI, plus James Wong on vegetables

Loyal More or Less listeners have questions about the Coronavirus Covid-19, and so do we ? particularly given this week's news that the numbers have all changed: deaths are 20 per cent higher than we thought, and the number of cases has increased by a third. Tim Harford talks to Dr Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical lecturer at King?s College London about what we now know.

Artificial Intelligence ? or AI for short ? is often depicted in films in the shape of helpful droids, all-knowing computers or even malevolent ?death bots?. In real life, we?re making leaps and bounds in this technology?s capabilities with sat-navs, and voice assistants like Alexa and Siri making frequent appearances in our daily lives. So, should we look forward to a future of AI best friends or fear the technology becoming too intelligent? Tim Harford talks to Janelle Shane, author of the book ?You Look Like a Thing and I Love you? about her experiments with AI and why the technology is really more akin to an earthworm than a high-functioning ?death bot?.

Is the drop in the copper content of tomatoes down to a change in pesticide use? And just how nutritious are today's vegetables? Ethnobotanist and regular Gardeners? Question Time panellist James Wong answers our listeners? questions.

Loyal More or Less listeners have questions about the Coronavirus Covid-19, and so do we – particularly given this week's news that the numbers have all changed: deaths are 20 per cent higher than we thought, and the number of cases has increased by a third. Tim Harford talks to Dr Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical lecturer at King's College London about what we now know.

Artificial Intelligence – or AI for short – is often depicted in films in the shape of helpful droids, all-knowing computers or even malevolent ‘death bots'. In real life, we're making leaps and bounds in this technology's capabilities with sat-navs, and voice assistants like Alexa and Siri making frequent appearances in our daily lives. So, should we look forward to a future of AI best friends or fear the technology becoming too intelligent? Tim Harford talks to Janelle Shane, author of the book ‘You Look Like a Thing and I Love you' about her experiments with AI and why the technology is really more akin to an earthworm than a high-functioning ‘death bot'.

Is the drop in the copper content of tomatoes down to a change in pesticide use? And just how nutritious are today's vegetables? Ethnobotanist and regular Gardeners' Question Time panellist James Wong answers our listeners' questions.

Loyal More or Less listeners have questions about the Coronavirus Covid-19, and so do we ? particularly given this week's news that the numbers have all changed: deaths are 20 per cent higher than we thought, and the number of cases has increased by a third. Tim Harford talks to Dr Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical lecturer at King's College London about what we now know.

Artificial Intelligence ? or AI for short ? is often depicted in films in the shape of helpful droids, all-knowing computers or even malevolent ?death bots?. In real life, we?re making leaps and bounds in this technology's capabilities with sat-navs, and voice assistants like Alexa and Siri making frequent appearances in our daily lives. So, should we look forward to a future of AI best friends or fear the technology becoming too intelligent? Tim Harford talks to Janelle Shane, author of the book ?You Look Like a Thing and I Love you? about her experiments with AI and why the technology is really more akin to an earthworm than a high-functioning ?death bot?.

Loyal More or Less listeners have questions about the Coronavirus Covid-19, and so do we - particularly given this week's news that the numbers have all changed: deaths are 20 per cent higher than we thought, and the number of cases has increased by a third. Tim Harford talks to Dr Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical lecturer at King's College London about what we now know.

Artificial Intelligence - or AI for short - is often depicted in films in the shape of helpful droids, all-knowing computers or even malevolent ‘death bots'. In real life, we're making leaps and bounds in this technology's capabilities with sat-navs, and voice assistants like Alexa and Siri making frequent appearances in our daily lives. So, should we look forward to a future of AI best friends or fear the technology becoming too intelligent? Tim Harford talks to Janelle Shane, author of the book ‘You Look Like a Thing and I Love you' about her experiments with AI and why the technology is really more akin to an earthworm than a high-functioning ‘death bot'.

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

Is the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there’s any evidence that we’re nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom.

Plus in a break from Covid-19 reporting we ask a Nobel-prize winner how many Earth-like planets there are in existence.

Is the coronavirus death count misleading because of delays in reporting?

Is the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there?s any evidence that we?re nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom.

Is the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there's any evidence that we're nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom.

Is the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there's any evidence that we?re nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom.

This week, we examine criticisms of Imperial College’s epidemiologists. We ask how A-Level and GCSE grades will be allocated, given that the exams have vanished in a puff of social distancing. Adam Kucharski, author of The Rules of Contagion, tells us about the history of epidemiology. We look at the supermarkets: how are their supply chains holding up and how much stockpiling is really going on. And is coronavirus having a different impact on men than on women?

(A woman looks at the empty shelves while shopping at a Sainsbury's supermarket in Walthamstow, East London. Credit:Tolga Akmen/Getty Images)

Is the coronavirus pandemic having a different impact on men and women?

This week, we examine criticisms of Imperial College?s epidemiologists. We ask how A-Level and GCSE grades will be allocated, given that the exams have vanished in a puff of social distancing. Adam Kucharski, author of The Rules of Contagion, tells us about the history of epidemiology. We look at the supermarkets: how are their supply chains holding up and how much stockpiling is really going on. And is coronavirus having a different impact on men than on women?

This week, we examine criticisms of Imperial College's epidemiologists. We ask how A-Level and GCSE grades will be allocated, given that the exams have vanished in a puff of social distancing. Adam Kucharski, author of The Rules of Contagion, tells us about the history of epidemiology. We look at the supermarkets: how are their supply chains holding up and how much stockpiling is really going on. And is coronavirus having a different impact on men than on women?

We compare Covid-19 rates around the world. When is the UK going to be past the worst?

The lockdown is difficult, but we hope it's reducing the number of people catching the virus. So, when are we going to be past the worst? We try and compare how successful different countries have been at containing the virus. Mathematical comedian Matt Parker helps us out with a perplexing sum about social distancing. Headlines tell us how many NHS staff and transport workers are dying from the virus, but how does this compare with the general population? And is it just us, or have the birds started singing really loudly?

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

The lockdown is difficult, but we hope it’s reducing the number of people catching the virus. So, when are we going to be past the worst? We try and compare how successful different countries have been at containing the virus. Mathematical comedian Matt Parker helps us out with a perplexing sum about social distancing. Headlines tell us how many NHS staff and transport workers are dying from the virus, but how does this compare with the general population? And is it just us, or have the birds started singing really loudly?

The lockdown is difficult, but we hope it?s reducing the number of people catching the virus. So, when are we going to be past the worst? We try and compare how successful different countries have been at containing the virus. Mathematical comedian Matt Parker helps us out with a perplexing sum about social distancing. Headlines tell us how many NHS staff and transport workers are dying from the virus, but how does this compare with the general population? And is it just us, or have the birds started singing really loudly?

Is the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there’s any evidence that we’re nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom.

Plus in a break from Covid-19 reporting we ask a Nobel-prize winner how many Earth-like planets there are in existence.

Is the coronavirus death count misleading because of delays in reporting?

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

The lockdown is difficult, but we hope it’s reducing the number of people catching the virus. So, when are we going to be past the worst? We try and compare how successful different countries have been at containing the virus. Mathematical comedian Matt Parker helps us out with a perplexing sum about social distancing. Headlines tell us how many NHS staff and transport workers are dying from the virus, but how does this compare with the general population? And is it just us, or have the birds started singing really loudly?

Is the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there's any evidence that we're nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom.

The lockdown is difficult, but we hope it's reducing the number of people catching the virus. So, when are we going to be past the worst? We try and compare how successful different countries have been at containing the virus. Mathematical comedian Matt Parker helps us out with a perplexing sum about social distancing. Headlines tell us how many NHS staff and transport workers are dying from the virus, but how does this compare with the general population? And is it just us, or have the birds started singing really loudly?

Is the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there?s any evidence that we?re nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom.

The lockdown is difficult, but we hope it?s reducing the number of people catching the virus. So, when are we going to be past the worst? We try and compare how successful different countries have been at containing the virus. Mathematical comedian Matt Parker helps us out with a perplexing sum about social distancing. Headlines tell us how many NHS staff and transport workers are dying from the virus, but how does this compare with the general population? And is it just us, or have the birds started singing really loudly?

Is the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there's any evidence that we?re nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom.

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

Are doctors from ethnic minority backgrounds disproportionately affected by Covid-19?

We continue our mission to use numbers to make sense of the world - pandemic or no pandemic. Are doctors from ethnic minority backgrounds disproportionately affected by Covid-19? Was the lockdown the decisive change which caused daily deaths in the UK to start to decrease? With much of the world’s population staying indoors, we ask what impact this might have on climate change and after weeks of staring out of the window at gorgeous April sunshine, does cruel fate now doom us to a rain-drenched summer? Plus, crime is down, boasts the home secretary Priti Patel. Should we be impressed?

We continue our mission to use numbers to make sense of the world - pandemic or no pandemic. Are doctors from ethnic minority backgrounds disproportionately affected by Covid-19? Was the lockdown the decisive change which caused daily deaths in the UK to start to decrease? With much of the world?s population staying indoors, we ask what impact this might have on climate change and after weeks of staring out of the window at gorgeous April sunshine, does cruel fate now doom us to a rain-drenched summer? Plus, crime is down, boasts the home secretary Priti Patel. Should we be impressed?

We continue our mission to use numbers to make sense of the world - pandemic or no pandemic. Are doctors from ethnic minority backgrounds disproportionately affected by Covid-19? Was the lockdown the decisive change which caused daily deaths in the UK to start to decrease? With much of the world's population staying indoors, we ask what impact this might have on climate change and after weeks of staring out of the window at gorgeous April sunshine, does cruel fate now doom us to a rain-drenched summer? Plus, crime is down, boasts the home secretary Priti Patel. Should we be impressed?

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

Did the UK really carry out 100,000 coronavirus tests in one day?

The Health Minister Matt Hancock promised the UK would carry out 100,000 coronavirus tests a day by the end of April. He claims he succeeded. Did he?

The question of just how dangerous the new coronavirus really is, is absolutely crucial. If it’s high, there could be dreadful consequences if we relaxed the lockdowns. So why is the fatality rate so difficult to calculate?

Is it true that being obese makes Covid-19 ten times more dangerous? And what is injuring more kids in lockdown, trampolines or Joe Wicks’ exercises?

The question of just how dangerous the new coronavirus really is, is absolutely crucial. If it?s high, there could be dreadful consequences if we relaxed the lockdowns. So why is the fatality rate so difficult to calculate?

Is it true that being obese makes Covid-19 ten times more dangerous? And what is injuring more kids in lockdown, trampolines or Joe Wicks? exercises?

The question of just how dangerous the new coronavirus really is, is absolutely crucial. If it's high, there could be dreadful consequences if we relaxed the lockdowns. So why is the fatality rate so difficult to calculate?

Is it true that being obese makes Covid-19 ten times more dangerous? And what is injuring more kids in lockdown, trampolines or Joe Wicks' exercises?

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

Is Vitamin D an under-appreciated weapon in the fight against Covid-19?

R is one of the most important numbers of the pandemic. So what is it? And how is it estimated? We return to the topic of testing and ask again whether the governments numbers add up. As the government encourages those who can’t work at home to return to their workplaces, we’re relying on social distancing to continue to slow the spread of the virus. But where does the rule that people should stay 2 metres apart come from? And is Vitamin D an under-appreciated weapon in the fight against Covid-19?

R is one of the most important numbers of the pandemic. So what is it? And how is it estimated? We return to the topic of testing and ask again whether the governments numbers add up. As the government encourages those who can?t work at home to return to their workplaces, we?re relying on social distancing to continue to slow the spread of the virus. But where does the rule that people should stay 2 metres apart come from? And is Vitamin D an under-appreciated weapon in the fight against Covid-19?

R is one of the most important numbers of the pandemic. So what is it? And how is it estimated? We return to the topic of testing and ask again whether the governments numbers add up. As the government encourages those who can't work at home to return to their workplaces, we're relying on social distancing to continue to slow the spread of the virus. But where does the rule that people should stay 2 metres apart come from? And is Vitamin D an under-appreciated weapon in the fight against Covid-19?

Will re-opening some schools put children or their teachers at risk?

Risk expert David Spiegelhalter discusses whether re-opening some schools could be dangerous for children or their teachers. We ask what’s behind Germany’s success in containing the number of deaths from Covid-19. Many governments across the world are borrowing huge sums to prop up their economies during this difficult time, but with everyone in the same boat who are they borrowing from? Plus we revisit the UK’s testing figures yet again and meet some statistically savvy parrots.

Risk expert David Spiegelhalter discusses whether re-opening some schools could be dangerous for children or their teachers. We ask what?s behind Germany?s success in containing the number of deaths from Covid-19. Many governments across the world are borrowing huge sums to prop up their economies during this difficult time, but with everyone in the same boat who are they borrowing from? Plus we revisit the UK?s testing figures yet again and meet some statistically savvy parrots.

Risk expert David Spiegelhalter discusses whether re-opening some schools could be dangerous for children or their teachers. We ask what's behind Germany's success in containing the number of deaths from Covid-19. Many governments across the world are borrowing huge sums to prop up their economies during this difficult time, but with everyone in the same boat who are they borrowing from? Plus we revisit the UK's testing figures yet again and meet some statistically savvy parrots.

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

Does the data show this wave of the epidemic is waning in the UK?

More than 35,000 people in the UK have now officially died from Covid-19, but does the data show this wave of the epidemic is waning? We ask who respects lockdown, who breaks it, and why?

Our listeners are astounded by how many people allegedly flew into the UK in the first three months of the year - we’re on the story. We look at the performance of the Scottish health system on testing. And some pub-quiz joy involving a pencil.

Our listeners are astounded by how many people allegedly flew into the UK in the first three months of the year - we?re on the story. We look at the performance of the Scottish health system on testing. And some pub-quiz joy involving a pencil.

Our listeners are astounded by how many people allegedly flew into the UK in the first three months of the year - we're on the story. We look at the performance of the Scottish health system on testing. And some pub-quiz joy involving a pencil.

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

How accurate are the swab tests used to diagnose Covid-19?

As lockdowns begin to lift the government is relying on testing and contact tracing programmes to prevent a second wave of Covid-19 infections. But how accurate are the swab tests used to diagnose the disease?

The UK Statistics Authority has criticised the government for the way it reports testing figures, saying it’s not surprising that these numbers “are so widely criticised and often mistrusted.?? We take a look at how the government achieved its target of developing a daily testing capacity of 200,000 by the end of May.

Can we really have only 60 harvests left in the world? Plus, the very pleasant Hugh Fearnley Whittingstall has a pleasant pheasant question for us.

The UK Statistics Authority has criticised the government for the way it reports testing figures, saying it?s not surprising that these numbers ?are so widely criticised and often mistrusted.?? We take a look at how the government achieved its target of developing a daily testing capacity of 200,000 by the end of May.

The UK Statistics Authority has criticised the government for the way it reports testing figures, saying it's not surprising that these numbers “are so widely criticised and often mistrusted.?? We take a look at how the government achieved its target of developing a daily testing capacity of 200,000 by the end of May.

The UK Statistics Authority has criticised the government for the way it reports testing figures, saying it's not surprising that these numbers ?are so widely criticised and often mistrusted.?? We take a look at how the government achieved its target of developing a daily testing capacity of 200,000 by the end of May.

The UK Statistics Authority has criticised the government for the way it reports testing figures, saying it’s not surprising that these numbers “are so widely criticised and often mistrusted.” We take a look at how the government achieved its target of developing a daily testing capacity of 200,000 by the end of May.

The UK Statistics Authority has criticised the government for the way it reports testing figures, saying it?s not surprising that these numbers ?are so widely criticised and often mistrusted.? We take a look at how the government achieved its target of developing a daily testing capacity of 200,000 by the end of May.

The UK Statistics Authority has criticised the government for the way it reports testing figures, saying it's not surprising that these numbers `are so widely criticised and often mistrusted.` We take a look at how the government achieved its target of developing a daily testing capacity of 200,000 by the end of May.

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

Are more people are dying of Covid-19 in the UK than all the EU countries put together?

At the start of March the government's Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said that the UK’s coronavirus outbreak was four weeks behind the epidemic in Italy. This ability to watch other countries deal with the disease ahead of us potentially influenced the decisions we made about which actions to take and when, including lockdown. So was he right?

Is it true that more people are dying of Covid-19 in the UK than in the 27 countries of the EU put together? We investigate headlines reporting that antibody tests are 100% accurate. Plus, we catch up on how many coronavirus tests the government says it’s now carrying out.

At the start of March the government's Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said that the UK?s coronavirus outbreak was four weeks behind the epidemic in Italy. This ability to watch other countries deal with the disease ahead of us potentially influenced the decisions we made about which actions to take and when, including lockdown. So was he right?

Is it true that more people are dying of Covid-19 in the UK than in the 27 countries of the EU put together? We investigate headlines reporting that antibody tests are 100% accurate. Plus, we catch up on how many coronavirus tests the government says it?s now carrying out.

At the start of March the government's Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said that the UK's coronavirus outbreak was four weeks behind the epidemic in Italy. This ability to watch other countries deal with the disease ahead of us potentially influenced the decisions we made about which actions to take and when, including lockdown. So was he right?

Is it true that more people are dying of Covid-19 in the UK than in the 27 countries of the EU put together? We investigate headlines reporting that antibody tests are 100% accurate. Plus, we catch up on how many coronavirus tests the government says it's now carrying out.

Is it true that Covid-19 mostly kills people who would die soon anyway?

The UK has introduced new rules requiring everyone arriving in the country to self-isolate for 14 days. But given the severity of the UK’s outbreak can there be many places more infectious? Is it true that Covid-19 mostly kills people who would die soon anyway? The first figures are out showing how England’s Test and Trace scheme is performing, but they contain a mystery we’re keen to resolve. Are Pangolins the most trafficked animal in the world? And we play with some mathematical puzzles, courtesy of statistician Jen Rogers.

The UK has introduced new rules requiring everyone arriving in the country to self-isolate for 14 days. But given the severity of the UK?s outbreak can there be many places more infectious? Is it true that Covid-19 mostly kills people who would die soon anyway? The first figures are out showing how England?s Test and Trace scheme is performing, but they contain a mystery we?re keen to resolve. Are Pangolins the most trafficked animal in the world? And we play with some mathematical puzzles, courtesy of statistician Jen Rogers.

The UK has introduced new rules requiring everyone arriving in the country to self-isolate for 14 days. But given the severity of the UK's outbreak can there be many places more infectious? Is it true that Covid-19 mostly kills people who would die soon anyway? The first figures are out showing how England's Test and Trace scheme is performing, but they contain a mystery we're keen to resolve. Are Pangolins the most trafficked animal in the world? And we play with some mathematical puzzles, courtesy of statistician Jen Rogers.

The UK has introduced new rules requiring everyone arriving in the country to self-isolate for 14 days. But given the severity of the UK's outbreak can there be many places more infectious? Is it true that Covid-19 mostly kills people who would die soon anyway? The first figures are out showing how England's Test and Trace scheme is performing, but they contain a mystery we?re keen to resolve. Are Pangolins the most trafficked animal in the world? And we play with some mathematical puzzles, courtesy of statistician Jen Rogers.

As lockdown eases, why hasn't there been a spike in infections?

As lockdown eases, why hasn't there been a spike in infections? We get a first look at the evidence for the much-trumpeted Covid-19 treatment, Dexamethasone. Stephanie Flanders tells us what’s happening to the UK economy. Keir Starmer says child poverty is up; Boris Johnson says it’s down, who's right? Plus which children are getting a solid home-school experience, and who is missing out?

A look at the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

As lockdown eases, why hasn't there been a spike in infections? We get a first look at the evidence for the much-trumpeted Covid-19 treatment, Dexamethasone. Stephanie Flanders tells us what?s happening to the UK economy. Keir Starmer says child poverty is up; Boris Johnson says it?s down, who's right? Plus which children are getting a solid home-school experience, and who is missing out?

As lockdown eases, why hasn't there been a spike in infections? We get a first look at the evidence for the much-trumpeted Covid-19 treatment, Dexamethasone. Stephanie Flanders tells us what's happening to the UK economy. Keir Starmer says child poverty is up; Boris Johnson says it's down, who's right? Plus which children are getting a solid home-school experience, and who is missing out?

Bad decision-making, bad advice, or bad luck?

The UK has suffered one of the worst outbreaks of coronavirus anywhere in the world. We’ve been analysing the numbers for the last 14 weeks, and in the last programme of this More or Less series, we look back through the events of March 2020 to ask why things went so wrong - was it bad decision-making, bad advice, or bad luck?

The UK has suffered one of the worst outbreaks of coronavirus anywhere in the world. We've been analysing the numbers for the last 14 weeks, and in the last programme of this More or Less series, we look back through the events of March 2020 to ask why things went so wrong - was it bad decision-making, bad advice, or bad luck?

The UK has suffered one of the worst outbreaks of coronavirus anywhere in the world. We?ve been analysing the numbers for the last 14 weeks, and in the last programme of this More or Less series, we look back through the events of March 2020 to ask why things went so wrong - was it bad decision-making, bad advice, or bad luck?

Covid-19 cases are rising in the UK - is it a sign of a second wave of the virus? We?re picking apart the data and asking how concerned we should be, both now and as autumn approaches. Scotland is under-counting Covid deaths, England is overcounting them: we?re asking why and whether the problems will be fixed. Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver claims over a quarter of all the fruit and veg kids eat is in the form of pizza, can this be true? Plus, as some people are blaming obesity for the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in the UK, we?ll find out how big a difference it really makes.

Covid-19 cases are rising in the UK - is it a sign of a second wave of the virus? We’re picking apart the data and asking how concerned we should be, both now and as autumn approaches. Scotland is under-counting Covid deaths, England is overcounting them: we’re asking why and whether the problems will be fixed. Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver claims over a quarter of all the fruit and veg kids eat is in the form of pizza, can this be true? Plus, as some people are blaming obesity for the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in the UK, we’ll find out how big a difference it really makes.

Covid-19 cases are rising in the UK, is it a sign of a second wave of the virus?

Covid-19 cases are rising in the UK - is it a sign of a second wave of the virus? We're picking apart the data and asking how concerned we should be, both now and as autumn approaches. Scotland is under-counting Covid deaths, England is overcounting them: we're asking why and whether the problems will be fixed. Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver claims over a quarter of all the fruit and veg kids eat is in the form of pizza, can this be true? Plus, as some people are blaming obesity for the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in the UK, we'll find out how big a difference it really makes.

We unpick the A-level algoshambles and discover what poker teaches us about statistics.

Donald Trump says allowing the emergency use of blood plasma therapy for coronavirus patients will save “countless lives?? and is “proven to reduce mortality by 35%??. We look at the evidence.

Amid talk of coronavirus being back on the rise in the UK, what does the data show? Could screening for breast cancer from the age of 40 save lives? And can it really be true than one in five women in 18th century London made a living selling sex?

Claims about a Covid-19 treatment, breast cancer screening, and 18th century sex workers.

Donald Trump says allowing the emergency use of blood plasma therapy for coronavirus patients will save ?countless lives?? and is ?proven to reduce mortality by 35%??. We look at the evidence.

Donald Trump says allowing the emergency use of blood plasma therapy for coronavirus patients will save “countless lives” and is “proven to reduce mortality by 35%”. We look at the evidence.

Donald Trump says allowing the emergency use of blood plasma therapy for coronavirus patients will save ?countless lives? and is ?proven to reduce mortality by 35%?. We look at the evidence.

Donald Trump says allowing the emergency use of blood plasma therapy for coronavirus patients will save `countless lives` and is `proven to reduce mortality by 35%`. We look at the evidence.

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

As children return to school in England and Wales, we hear about what we know and what we don't when it comes to Covid-19 risks in school settings. What do the numbers tell us about how well test and trace is working? Will reopening universities really kill 50,000 people? Are the UK's figures on economic growth as bad as they look? And is maths real? When someone goes viral asking maths questions on social media, More or Less finds answers.

Evidence on Covid-19 risks in schools, data on contact tracing, and a philosophical query.

As children return to school in England and Wales, we hear about what we know and what we don’t when it comes to Covid-19 risks in school settings. What do the numbers tell us about how well test and trace is working? Will reopening universities really kill 50,000 people? Are the UK’s figures on economic growth as bad as they look? And is maths real? When someone goes viral asking maths questions on social media, More or Less finds answers.

As children return to school in England and Wales, we hear about what we know and what we don?t when it comes to Covid-19 risks in school settings. What do the numbers tell us about how well test and trace is working? Will reopening universities really kill 50,000 people? Are the UK?s figures on economic growth as bad as they look? And is maths real? When someone goes viral asking maths questions on social media, More or Less finds answers.

A jump in the number of UK Covid-19 cases reported by the government has led to fears coronavirus is now spreading quickly again. What do the numbers tell us about how worried we should be? Plus a guide to balancing life's risks in the time of coronavirus, the government's targets on test and trace, and a suspicious statistic about the speed of jelly-fish.

How worrying is the UK's jump in cases? Plus balancing risks and the speed of jelly-fish.

How worrying is the UK's jump in cases? Plus balancing risks and the speed of jelly-fish.

A jump in the number of UK Covid-19 cases reported by the government has led to fears coronavirus is now spreading quickly again. What do the numbers tell us about how worried we should be? Plus a guide to balancing life?s risks in the time of coronavirus, the government?s targets on test and trace, and a suspicious statistic about the speed of jelly-fish.

A jump in the number of UK Covid-19 cases reported by the government has led to fears coronavirus is now spreading quickly again. What do the numbers tell us about how worried we should be? Plus a guide to balancing life's risks in the time of coronavirus, the government's targets on test and trace, and a suspicious statistic about the speed of jelly-fish.

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

Amid reports of problems with coronavirus testing across the UK, we interrogate the numbers on laboratory capacity. Does the government's Operation Moonshot plan for mass testing make statistical sense? Has the UK been taking more refugees from outside the European Union than any EU country? We explore the connection between socio-economic status and Covid deaths. And we do the maths on a mascara brand's bold claim about emboldening your eyelashes.

Confusing claims on lab capacity, the UK's record on asylum, and the volume of eyelashes.

Amid reports of problems with coronavirus testing across the UK, we interrogate the numbers on laboratory capacity. Does the government’s Operation Moonshot plan for mass testing make statistical sense? Has the UK been taking more refugees from outside the European Union than any EU country? We explore the connection between socio-economic status and Covid deaths. And we do the maths on a mascara brand’s bold claim about emboldening your eyelashes.

Amid reports of problems with coronavirus testing across the UK, we interrogate the numbers on laboratory capacity. Does the government?s Operation Moonshot plan for mass testing make statistical sense? Has the UK been taking more refugees from outside the European Union than any EU country? We explore the connection between socio-economic status and Covid deaths. And we do the maths on a mascara brand?s bold claim about emboldening your eyelashes.

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

A scary government graph this week showed what would happen if coronavirus cases doubled every seven days. But is that what's happening? There's much confusion about how many Covid test results are false positives - we explain all. Plus, do coffee and pregnancy mix? And the Queen, Mao, and Gandhi go head to head: who is on the most stamps and coins?

How fast are coronavirus cases doubling? Plus testing confusion and a royal face-off.

A scary government graph this week showed what would happen if coronavirus cases doubled every seven days. But is that what’s happening? There’s much confusion about how many Covid test results are false positives - we explain all. Plus, do coffee and pregnancy mix? And the Queen, Mao, and Gandhi go head to head: who is on the most stamps and coins?

A scary government graph this week showed what would happen if coronavirus cases doubled every seven days. But is that what?s happening? There?s much confusion about how many Covid test results are false positives - we explain all. Plus, do coffee and pregnancy mix? And the Queen, Mao, and Gandhi go head to head: who is on the most stamps and coins?

Daily recorded coronavirus cases in the UK have hit record levels;

we explain why that's not as bad news as it sounds. We hear a mathematical answer to the problem of Covid-19 testing capacity. How can we assess a country's capacity to take refugees? US president Donald Trump has said that just six per cent of people who were reported to have died from Covid in the US actually died from the disease. Could he be right? (No.) Plus: what ant pheromones can teach you about your life decisions.

(Leafcutter Ants carrying leaves across a branch. Credit: Carlos

we explain why that’s not as bad news as it sounds. We hear a mathematical answer to the problem of Covid-19 testing capacity. How can we assess a country’s capacity to take refugees? US president Donald Trump has said that just six per cent of people who were reported to have died from Covid in the US actually died from the disease. Could he be right? (No.) Plus: what ant pheromones can teach you about your life decisions.

(Leafcutter Ants carrying leaves across a branch. Credit: Carlos @ngel Vကzquez Tena/Getty images)

Case counts in perspective, a suspect stat from the US, and life lessons from insects.

we explain why that?s not as bad news as it sounds. We hear a mathematical answer to the problem of Covid-19 testing capacity. How can we assess a country?s capacity to take refugees? US president Donald Trump has said that just six per cent of people who were reported to have died from Covid in the US actually died from the disease. Could he be right? (No.) Plus: what ant pheromones can teach you about your life decisions.

(Leafcutter Ants carrying leaves across a branch. Credit: Carlos @ngel V?zquez Tena/Getty images)

Missing coronavirus case data, long-term symptoms, and a big mathematical moment.

After nearly 16,000 cases disappeared off coronaviruses spreadsheets, we ask what went wrong. How common are lasting symptoms from Covid-19? If you survey people about the death toll from Covid, they?ll make mistakes. What do those mistakes teach us? Pedants versus poets on the subject of exponential growth. And we dive deep into the unholy marriage of mathematicians, gamblers, and actuaries at the dawn of modern finance.

After nearly 16,000 cases disappeared off coronaviruses spreadsheets, we ask what went wrong. How common are lasting symptoms from Covid-19? If you survey people about the death toll from Covid, they'll make mistakes. What do those mistakes teach us? Pedants versus poets on the subject of exponential growth. And we dive deep into the unholy marriage of mathematicians, gamblers, and actuaries at the dawn of modern finance.

After nearly 16,000 cases disappeared off coronaviruses spreadsheets, we ask what went wrong. How common are lasting symptoms from Covid-19? If you survey people about the death toll from Covid, they’ll make mistakes. What do those mistakes teach us? Pedants versus poets on the subject of exponential growth. And we dive deep into the unholy marriage of mathematicians, gamblers, and actuaries at the dawn of modern finance.

Missing coronavirus case data, long-term symptoms, and a big mathematical moment.

After nearly 16,000 cases disappeared off coronaviruses spreadsheets, we ask what went wrong. How common are lasting symptoms from Covid-19? If you survey people about the death toll from Covid, they?ll make mistakes. What do those mistakes teach us? Pedants versus poets on the subject of exponential growth. And we dive deep into the unholy marriage of mathematicians, gamblers, and actuaries at the dawn of modern finance.

After nearly 16,000 cases disappeared off coronaviruses spreadsheets, we ask what went wrong. How common are lasting symptoms from Covid-19? If you survey people about the death toll from Covid, they'll make mistakes. What do those mistakes teach us? Pedants versus poets on the subject of exponential growth. And we dive deep into the unholy marriage of mathematicians, gamblers, and actuaries at the dawn of modern finance.

The new vaccine regime is to delay the booster shot of the Pfizer vaccine for up to 3 months. But is the first dose 52% or 90% effective? A new virus variant is meant to be 70% more transmissible, what does that mean? Plus, one of our youngest loyal listeners has a question about her classmates names.

Is the first dose of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine 52% or 90% effective?

If you are experiencing emotional stress, help and support is available at BBC Action Line:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/4WLs5NlwrySXJR2n8Snszdg/emotional-distress-information-and-support

If we vaccinate the top four priority groups by February, how much will things change?

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

The vaccine rollout continues: how long will it take before we see the benefits, and what benefits will we see? Figures suggest the UK's economy performed worse than almost anywhere else in the world during the pandemic. But are the numbers misleading us? Will UK fishing quotas increase two thirds in the wake of Brexit? We trawl through the data. Plus, alarming claims have been circulating about the number of suicides during lockdown. We look at the facts.

The vaccine rollout continues: how long will it take before we see the benefits, and what benefits will we see? Figures suggest the UK?s economy performed worse than almost anywhere else in the world during the pandemic. But are the numbers misleading us? Will UK fishing quotas increase two thirds in the wake of Brexit? We trawl through the data. Plus, alarming claims have been circulating about the number of suicides during lockdown. We look at the facts.

If you are experiencing emotional stress, help and support is available at BBC Action Line:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/4WLs5NlwrySXJR2n8Snszdg/emotional-distress-information-and-support

If we vaccinate the top four priority groups by February, how much will things change?

The vaccine rollout continues: how long will it take before we see the benefits, and what benefits will we see? Figures suggest the UK?s economy performed worse than almost anywhere else in the world during the pandemic. But are the numbers misleading us? Will UK fishing quotas increase two thirds in the wake of Brexit? We trawl through the data. Plus, alarming claims have been circulating about the number of suicides during lockdown. We look at the facts.

Since the start of the pandemic there have been many warnings that people might die not just from the coronavirus itself, but also if they didn't seek medical help out of fear that hospitals might be dangerous. Is there any evidence that this has happened? David Spiegelhalter is on the case.

The UK is in lockdown, but tens of thousands of people a day are still testing positive for Coronavirus. Where are they catching it? Grim data on drug deaths in Scotland has been called into question on social media. We ferret out the truth. Plus, what can venomous snakes tell us about the government's plan to increase the number of people self-isolating?

Where are people catching Covid-19?

Since the start of the pandemic there have been many warnings that people might die not just from the coronavirus itself, but also if they didn’t seek medical help out of fear that hospitals might be dangerous. Is there any evidence that this has happened? David Spiegelhalter is on the case.

Since the start of the pandemic there have been many warnings that people might die not just from the coronavirus itself, but also if they didn?t seek medical help out of fear that hospitals might be dangerous. Is there any evidence that this has happened? David Spiegelhalter is on the case.

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

Prominent Labour politicians have claimed teachers are more likely to catch Covid-19, is that true?

England’s Test and Trace programme has been widely criticised, has it raised its game in recent months? A ferocious row has broken out between scientists about how effective fast turnaround Lateral Flow tests are, and how they should be used. We examine the data.

Plus, we examine a claim from Extinction Rebellion that British butterflies have declined by 50% since 1976.

(A Primary Academy teaches smaller pods of students to maintain social distancing measures, London UK. Credit: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Are teachers more at risk from Covid-19?

England's Test and Trace programme has been widely criticised, has it raised its game in recent months? A ferocious row has broken out between scientists about how effective fast turnaround Lateral Flow tests are, and how they should be used. We examine the data.

England?s Test and Trace programme has been widely criticised, has it raised its game in recent months? A ferocious row has broken out between scientists about how effective fast turnaround Lateral Flow tests are, and how they should be used. We examine the data.

Ministers are tweeting reassuring numbers about flammable cladding on high rise buildings. We’re not so sure.

Is it really true that one in five people are disabled?

Plus, if you assembled all the coronavirus particles in the world into a pile - how big would it be?

Are exports to the EU down since Brexit? Plus removing flammable building cladding.

A look at numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

Are exports to the EU from the UK down 68% since Brexit? This apocalyptic statistic is being widely reported, but does it really tell us what's happening at Dover and Folkstone?

Ministers are tweeting reassuring numbers about flammable cladding on high rise buildings. We're not so sure.

Are exports to the EU from the UK down 68% since Brexit? This apocalyptic statistic is being widely reported, but does it really tell us what?s happening at Dover and Folkstone?

Ministers are tweeting reassuring numbers about flammable cladding on high rise buildings. We?re not so sure.

Long Covid is widely acknowledged as being a growing problem, but what are the numbers involved? Just how many people have long-term symptoms after their initial infection?

There have been reports that we are drinking more in Lock Down. We examine the evidence.

Dr Natalie MacDermott was one of the first guests invited on to More or Less to talk about the new coronavirus early last year. We revisit what she said then and what we know now. Plus, she tells of her own struggles with Long Covid.

Is the UK's Covid-19 death count among the worst in the world?

Long Covid is widely acknowledged as being a growing problem, but what are the numbers involved? Just how many people have long-term symptoms after their initial infection?

There have been reports that we are drinking more in Lock Down. We examine the evidence.

Dr Natalie MacDermott was one of the first guests invited on to More or Less to talk about the new coronavirus early last year. We revisit what she said then and what we know now. Plus, she tells of her own struggles with Long Covid.

Is the UK's Covid-19 death count among the worst in the world?

Wales has given one vaccination dose against Covid 19 to a larger proportion of their population than any other country except a couple of super tiny ones. They’ve given one vaccine dose to over 80% of their adult population. We explore some reasons why they seem to be doing so well.

The UK continues to do poorly at Eurovision – we take a look back over the years to examine why the UK used to do well, and why it doesn’t any more.

Waiting lists for NHS treatment across the UK have grown – but why are things so bad in Northern Ireland?

Is it true that 42% of young people are living at home with their parents? We find out what a young person is and why they haven’t flown the nest.

How to vaccinate a country quickly, plus the UK's singing contest woes.

Wales has given one vaccination dose against Covid 19 to a larger proportion of their population than any other country except a couple of super tiny ones. They've given one vaccine dose to over 80% of their adult population. We explore some reasons why they seem to be doing so well.

The UK continues to do poorly at Eurovision – we take a look back over the years to examine why the UK used to do well, and why it doesn't any more.

Is it true that 42% of young people are living at home with their parents? We find out what a young person is and why they haven't flown the nest.

Wales has given one vaccination dose against Covid 19 to a larger proportion of their population than any other country except a couple of super tiny ones. They?ve given one vaccine dose to over 80% of their adult population. We explore some reasons why they seem to be doing so well.

The UK continues to do poorly at Eurovision ? we take a look back over the years to examine why the UK used to do well, and why it doesn?t any more.

Waiting lists for NHS treatment across the UK have grown ? but why are things so bad in Northern Ireland?

Is it true that 42% of young people are living at home with their parents? We find out what a young person is and why they haven?t flown the nest.

The UK continues to do poorly at Eurovision - we take a look back over the years to examine why the UK used to do well, and why it doesn't any more.

Waiting lists for NHS treatment across the UK have grown - but why are things so bad in Northern Ireland?

The recent SNP election success has turned attention to the question of independence. We compare Scotland’s finances to the comparably sized Yorkshire and Humber region.

How do you work out 28 + 47 in your head? We speak to mathematician Katie Steckles.

A listener asked us to find out if it is true that the average age of a gamer is over 40.

Plus, we take a look at this claim from Netflix documentary Seaspiracy: “if current fishing trends continue we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048.??

(a man receives a Covid-19 vaccine at a temporary vaccination centre in Bolton, May 2021. Credit: Oli Scarff /Getty Images)

Were tens of thousands of people getting their jab in Bolton every single day?

The recent SNP election success has turned attention to the question of independence. We compare Scotland's finances to the comparably sized Yorkshire and Humber region.

Health Minister Matt Hancock recently told the House of Commons that: ?The number of vaccinations happening in Bolton right now is phenomenal - tens of thousands every single day.?? We explain why this is not the case.

The recent SNP election success has turned attention to the question of independence. We compare Scotland?s finances to the comparably sized Yorkshire and Humber region.

Plus, we take a look at this claim from Netflix documentary Seaspiracy: ?if current fishing trends continue we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048.??

Health Minister Matt Hancock recently told the House of Commons that: ?The number of vaccinations happening in Bolton right now is phenomenal - tens of thousands every single day.? We explain why this is not the case.

Health Minister Matt Hancock recently told the House of Commons that: “The number of vaccinations happening in Bolton right now is phenomenal - tens of thousands every single day.” We explain why this is not the case.

Plus, we take a look at this claim from Netflix documentary Seaspiracy: “if current fishing trends continue we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048.”

Health Minister Matt Hancock recently told the House of Commons that: `The number of vaccinations happening in Bolton right now is phenomenal - tens of thousands every single day.` We explain why this is not the case.

Plus, we take a look at this claim from Netflix documentary Seaspiracy: `if current fishing trends continue we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048.`

Covid-19 cases are rising again in the UK – should we be worried about a third wave? Tim Harford speaks to David Spiegelhalter, Winton professor of risk at the University of Cambridge.

How safe are smart motorways? Many listeners have concerns that they seem more dangerous than conventional motorways. We take a look at the numbers.

What proportion of adults in England have been vaccinated? Listeners have spotted a potential discrepancy in the public data online.

Are 80% of women wearing the wrong size bra? This frequently repeated statistic has been around for decades – could it possibly be true?

Should we worry about Covid-19 cases rising? Plus are smart motorways safe?

Covid-19 cases are rising again in the UK ? should we be worried about a third wave? Tim Harford speaks to David Spiegelhalter, Winton professor of risk at the University of Cambridge.

Are 80% of women wearing the wrong size bra? This frequently repeated statistic has been around for decades ? could it possibly be true?

Covid-19 cases are rising again in the UK - should we be worried about a third wave? Tim Harford speaks to David Spiegelhalter, Winton professor of risk at the University of Cambridge.

Are 80% of women wearing the wrong size bra? This frequently repeated statistic has been around for decades - could it possibly be true?

Does the UK have the worst bathing sites in Europe? That’s certainly a claim made by a number of newspapers. We show why this is not the case.