More Or Less

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But she had a hunch about those movies, that there aren't many women like her, women in STEM - science, technology, engineering and maths – taking the lead roles.

So she set out on a maths quest to find out what's what.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

(Picture: A young couple with a heart-shaped balloon on the street

Credit: Cultura RM Exclusive/Spark Photographic / Getty)

A data scientist takes on rom com films to see how women in STEM are represented

Tim Harford unpicks the history of the calculator with Keith Houston, author of Empire of the Sum: The Rise and Reign of the Pocket Calculator.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Debbie Richford

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: Hal Haines

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Technology evolution: old metal mechanical calculator 1930s, vintage plastic calculator 1970s, modern digital smartphone calculator 2000s. Credit: Getty Images)

Tim Harford explores the history of calculators from clockwork to the Kashio brothers

Tim Harford explores the history of calculators, from clockwork to the Kashio brothers, with author Keith Houston

Last week Elon Musk revealed that he had been through the Social Security Agencies database and found millions of people aged over 100.

The vast majority of these people are dead, but their accounts and social security numbers remain live.

Elon claimed that he had uncovered ‘the biggest fraud ever' prompting some news outlets to speculate that billions of dollars might be being paid to these dead people every month.

But is it true? We look at whether this is new information and what the data actually tells us.

Produced and presented by: Lizzy McNeill

Series producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: James Beard

Is this 'the biggest fraud in the whole of history'?

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National Geographic magazine recently wrote that “people in the United States eat more than 672 billion pounds of corn per year, which breaks down to more than 2,000 pounds per person annually ?.

Is this really true?

Tim Harford investigates all the things that we don't eat, that are counted in this number.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: Giles Aspen

Editor: Richard Vadon

A lot of corn is eaten in the United States, but is it really 2.5kg per person per day?

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In a recent speech to the UN, US president Donald Trump set out some remarkable figures on the proportion of inmates in European prisons who were foreign nationals.

Citing statistics from the Council of Europe, he references Greece, Germany and Austria, as having rates around 50%.

“In Switzerland, beautiful Switzerland, ? he said “72% of the people in prisons are from outside of Switzerland. ?

These numbers are correct, but why are the percentages so high – particularly in Switzerland?

Tim Harford speaks to Professor Marcelo Aebi, a criminologist from the University of Lausanne, who wrote the prisons report for the Council of Europe.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Tom Colls

Sound mix: Rod Farquhar

Editor: Richard Vadon

Donald Trump says three quarters of Swiss prisoners are not Swiss. Is he right?

US president Donald Trump told the UN that nearly three quarters of the Swiss prison population are not Swiss. Is he right?

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Netflix's psychological drama Adolescence has started a debate about teenage boys and misogyny in modern society. It tells the story of a seemingly normal young boy, Jamie, who is arrested after the brutal murder of a girl in his class.

The series focuses on how young men are being radicalised against women by various podcasts, blogs and forums that make up the anti-feminist movement, the so-called ‘manosphere'. These podcasts often give men tips about how to be an ‘alpha' male and promote the idea that feminism has set back men's rights. They use a range of material to back up their claims, including statistics.

One such statistic was quoted in Adolescence and used to explain Jamie's hatred towards women - that 80% of women are only attracted to 20% of men.

Where does this claim come from and is it true? We look into the alleged maths behind the misogyny.

‘The original version of this programme erroneously attributed the creation of the website ‘Hot or Not' to Mark Zuckerberg, thank you to the listeners for pointing this error out to us. We have amended and updated the programme.

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: James Beard

Editor: Richard Vadon

Dispelling an incel myth that featured in the Netflix drama Adolescence

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In June 2022 the United States Supreme Court passed what became known as ‘the Dobbs decision'. In doing so they overturned the long standing constitutional right for women to access abortion in the US.

Since then a number of states have banned abortion completely with many others having highly prohibitive rules. You'd expect the numbers of abortions to go down. They haven't.

How is it possible that more people are accessing abortions in a post Dobbs society and why is it not true that states which have total bans have zero abortions per year?

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge

Studio Manager: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon, Bridget Harney.

Looking at the data behind abortion in a post Dobbs America.

We talk to experts about what is driving the increase in abortions

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Babies born in the US to Black Hispanic or African American mothers are more likely to die than any other ethnic group in America.

That is a fact.

But the reason why this happens is unclear. In 2020 a study came out that claimed that black babies attended by white doctors after birth were twice as likely to die than white babies attended by white doctors.

People jumped to the conclusion that the race of the doctor was leading to the different outcomes. But when you delve into the numbers, a very different picture starts to emerge.

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Steve Greenwood

Editor: Richard Vadon

How baby mortality statistics gave a misleading impression about racism in healthcare

How baby mortality statistics gave a misleading impression about racism in the healthcare system.

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So is this true? Are some companies choosing to charge us more than ever for their products?

We investigate the accuracy of these claims, and which companies are responsible with the help of Jan Eeckhout a Professor of Economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate claims mark-ups are larger than ever

We investigate claims companies' markups are eight times bigger than they were forty years ago

We investigate the statistical relationships with Professor Sam Peltzman from the University of Chicago, and Professor John Helliwell, from the University of British Columbia.

Presenter: Tom Colls

Reporter: Natasha Fernandes

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Nigel Appleton

Editor: Richard Vadon

Investigating the relationship between matrimony and melancholy.

In the midst of the television coverage of Soccer Aid, a celebrity soccer match organised by Unicef, the audience was told that “one in six children around the world are currently living through war ?.

Listener Isla got in touch with More or Less to ask whether the claim was correct, so we tracked down the source to an organisation called the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

Research director Siri Aas Rustad tells us how they worked out a figure for the number of children living near to a “conflict ? and the big differences between that and something most people would think of as “war ?.

If you've seen a number you think we should look at, email the team on moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Nicholas Barrett

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Giles Aspen

Editor: Richard Vadon

A Unicef event said one in six children are living though war. What does that really mean?

Unicef event Soccer Aid said one in six children around the world are currently living though war. What does that really mean?

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Google claim their latest quantum computer chip is able to process something in five minutes it would take a normal computer 10 septillion years to figure out.

As this is a massive amount longer than the entire history of the known universe, that seems to suggest the chip is extremely powerful.

But when you understand what's going on, the claim doesn't seem quite so impressive.

Dr Peter Leek, a quantum computer scientist from Oxford University, explains the key context.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Andrew Garratt

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate what a big claim about the speed of a quantum chip really means.

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Fully autonomous cars are here. In a handful of cities across the US and China, robotaxis are transporting human passengers around town, but with no human behind the wheel.

Loyal Listener Amberish wrote in to More or Less to ask about a couple of safety statistics he'd seen regarding these self-driving cars on social media. These claimed that Waymo self-driving taxis were five times safer than human drivers in the US, and that Tesla's self-driving cars are 10 times safer.

But, are these claims true?

We speak to Mark MacCarthy, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution Center for Technology Innovation, to find out.

If you've seen some numbers you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Nicholas Barrett

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

We look at claims that fully autonomous cars are 5 or ten times safer

We look at claims that fully autonomous cars are 5 or ten times safer than those with a human behind the wheel.

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Dr James Grime helps us understand the Shannon number – a famous figure on the chess side of the equation - and astronomer Professor Catherine Heymans takes on the entire observable universe.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producers: Debbie Richford and Nathan Gower

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: Andy Fell

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate how the vast possibilities in chess compare to the vastness of the universe

But when you track down the source, the research behind this claim leaves much to be desired.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Nigel Appleton

Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith

We unpick the idea that women outnumber men by 14 to 1 as casualties of natural disasters

We unpick the idea that women outnumber men by 14 to 1 as the casualties of natural disasters like floods and earthquakes.

With the help of Professor John Holmes from the University of Sheffield's School of Medicine and Population Health and Simon Funge-Smith, a senior fishery officer at the FAO.

Presenter and producer: Charlotte McDonald

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

Checking out stats on boozing Brits and fishing fleets in the South China Sea.

Today we dive in to one of our listener's family debates and try to find an answer, with the help of nutrition experts Dr David Katz and Professor Bernadette Moore.

Reporter: Paul Connolly

Researcher: Perisha Kudhail

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Engineer: James Beard

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Picture: A pyramid made of chocolate and salad

Credit: Gandee Vasan / Getty Images)

President Elect Donald Trump has created a new government advisory group – the Department of Government Efficiency or ‘DOGE' - to help cut the US budget.

The world richest man, Elon Musk, will co-head the department and has pledged to cut ‘at least $2 trillion' to ‘balance the budget'. But is this possible? We talk to Professor Linda Bilmes about what DOGE could or couldn't do and how she balanced the budget in the 1990's.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound Mix: Andrew Mills

Editor: Richard Vadon

Image: Elon Musk on stage before Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY on Sunday, October 27, 2024. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

We look at whether DOGE can successfully balance the US budget.

We look at whether DOGE - the Department of Government Efficiency - can successfully balance the US budget.

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Presenter: Paul Connolly

Producers: Paul Connolly and Jon Bithrey

Editor: Richard Vadon

Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound Engineer: David Crackles

(Image: : A cluster of young stars, surrounded by clouds of interstellar gas and dust, in a nebula, located in the constellation Carina. Credit: Reuters)

We look a famous equation which tries to explain whether life exists in outer space

We look at a famous equation which tries to explain whether life exists elsewhere in the universe

What has the colour of your hair got to do with your capacity to withstand pain?

We investigate the claim, which regularly circulates on social media, that natural redheads are 25% tougher than their brunette peers.

Pain expert Jeff Mogil explains how it all comes down to something called MC1R.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound Mix: Bob Nettles

We investigate if people with red hair have a hidden pain-blocking superpower

We investigate the claim that people with red hair have a hidden pain-blocking superpower

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These are questions that many governments will keep regularly updated. But in China they have disappeared.

We investigate the reasons behind China's missing numbers.

Reporter: Celia Hatton

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Picture: Chinese flag behind a graph with statistics

Credit: Igor Kutyaev/iStock/Getty Images Plus)

How the Chinese state make inconvenient statistics disappear

How the Chinese state make inconvenient statistics on youth unemployment and covid deaths disappear.

Could European Nato members use their large holdings of US shares and bonds to put pressure on America? It's a question that some in Europe found themselves asking as the geopolitical crisis over Greenland escalated and leaders desperately tried to think of ways to dissuade Donald Trump.

It is true that trillions of dollars of American financial assets are held in Europe. But the devil, as ever, is in the detail.

Tim Harford talks to Toby Nangle, a journalist with the Financial Times, to drill down into the numbers.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Nathan Gower

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Engineer: James Beard

Europe holds trillions of dollars of US shares and bonds - but can they use them?

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The number of satellites orbiting our planet has been rapidly increasing in recent years. But what are the risks when they start falling back down to earth?

The European Space agency estimate that by 2030 there will be 100,000 satellites in orbit.

We look at whether that estimate is realistic and what it means for those of us living on the ground below, with the help of Jonathan McDowell and Fionagh Thomson.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Editor: Richard Vadon

Studio Manager: James Beard

Investigating if 100,000 satellites could be orbiting earth in five years' time

Investigating if 100,000 satellites could be orbiting earth in five years' time and what that means for us living on the ground below.

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Producers: Bethan Ashmead and Nathan Gower

Sound Engineer: Nigel Appleton

Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Crowds at an election rally in Lucknow India, May 13, 2024. Credit: Hindustan Times/Getty Images)

Changing India in numbers: what type of country will the next administration lead?

As India awaits its election results, we talk to data communicator Rukmini S about India's changing population

Just hours after Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, rumours started swirling that something was afoot.

A graph went viral on social media that appeared to show there were 20 million more votes cast in 2020 than in the 2024 election. Where had these supposedly “missing ? votes gone?

Conspiracy theorists on both sides of the political spectrum began shouting claims of fraud.

The answer, it turns out, is rather more straightforward.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound Mix: Hal Haines

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate a viral graph that suggests turnout was drastically lower than in 2020

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AI can make mistakes – and AI chatbots like ChatGPT warn you about that whenever you ask them anything.

These mistakes sometimes involve making up entirely fictitious, factually false statements known as “hallucinations ?.

Whether these hallucinations matter depends on what you're using AI for, and whether they are spotted and corrected.

The team on More or Less were slightly surprised to read a headline in Fortune magazine, claiming that a top academic AI conference accepted research papers which contained 100 AI-hallucinated citations.

You might think that the top AI researchers in the world would be careful about using AI to write their research papers.

Alex Cui, CTO and co-founder of GPTZero – whose company discovered the hallucinations – explains what's going on.

CREDITS:

Presenter and producer: Tom Colls

Sound mix: James Beard

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Editor: Richard Vadon

Investigating a claim that 100 made-up claims were found in AI papers

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“Say what you like about Mussolini but he did make the trains run on time. ? This phrase is the political equivalent of “every cloud has a silver lining ? – but does it have any factual basis?

Mussolini's dictatorship in Italy was full of atrocities, brutal suppression and propaganda. Did it also create a more efficient railway network?

We speak to Professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat about the truth of the claim and why the Mussolini regime wanted us to believe it.

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Researcher: Esme Winterbotham

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Master: James Beard

Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison.

Image: Benito Mussolini in his train studying maps. (Photo by ullstein picture/ullstein picture via Getty Images)

Fact checking the fascist regime.

Were reports of punctual trains in Mussolini's Italy, the truth, lies, or something else?

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When World War Two came to Greece, a period of terrible human suffering followed. There was a brutal battle with Italian and then Nazi forces, followed by an occupation in which thousands were executed and a terrible famine swept the nation.

There's an often repeated number that appears to capture the brutality of this time – that 10% of the Greek population died during the war.

We investigate where this statistic comes from and whether it is true.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate if 10 percent of the Greek population died during the second world war

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Just before being inaugurated as US president for the second time, Donald Trump launched something called a “meme-coin ?.

This is a bespoke cryptocurrency token featuring a picture of Donald Trump. A billion of them may eventually be created.

Newspaper headlines claimed that the Trump meme-coin had made the president billions of dollars wealthier. But it is far from clear that this is the case.

We investigate if the US president's crypto is really worth tens of billions of dollars.

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Hollywood has given sharks a terrible reputation. But in reality, the finned fish should be far more scared of us, than we of them.

Millions of sharks are killed in fishing nets and lines every year.

One statistical claim seems to sum up the scale of this slaughter – that 100 million sharks are killed every year, or roughly 11,000 per day.

But how was this figure calculated, and what exactly does it mean?

We go straight to the source and speak to the researcher who worked it out, Dr Boris Worm, a professor in marine conservation at Dalhousie University in Canada.

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Nicholas Barrett

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Annie Gardiner

Editor: Richard Vadon

Investigating if 100 million sharks are killed by fishing nets every year.

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The claim that 79% of asylum seekers in Sweden go on holiday in their home country has been repeated regularly on social media.

It's used to argue that recent refugees are being disingenuous about the danger they face in the country they have fled from.

But when you look at the survey the claim is based on, you see the stat in a very different way.

We speak to Hjalmar Strid, who ran the survey for polling company Novus, and Tino Sanandaji from Bulletin, the online news site which published it.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate a refugee claim that is often being taken out of context.

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Speaking on the “Thought for the Day ? slot, Reverend Lucy Winkett said that around 85% of the world's population practice a religion.

Is this true? We speak to Conrad Hackett, from the Pew Research Center, and the person whose research is the source for the claim.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Natasha Fernandes

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: Nigel Appleton

Editor: Richard Vadon

Counting religions across the globe - is the world getting more religious or less?

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Governments around the world have promised to fight climate change. But are they also pumping an absolutely massive amount of money into subsidies for fossil fuels? In 2022, an IMF working paper estimated that global subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $7 trillion. But when you dig into that research, you find that this number might not mean what you think it does. We explain how they reached that conclusion, with the help of Angela Picciariello from the International Institute for Sustainable Development, and Nate Vernon, one of the co-authors of the IMF paper.

We investigate a huge estimate for how much governments pay to support coal, gas and oil

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Presenter: Ben Carter

Reporter and Producer: Perisha Kudhail

Series Producer: Jon Bithrey

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Engineer: James Beard

(Image: A saleswoman shows gold bangles to a customer at a jewellery showroom in Kolkata. Credit: Reuters/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo)

The cultural importance of gold is well known - but how much do Indians actually own?

But polling experts at the Pew Research Centre thought the result might not be accurate, due to problems with the kind of opt-in polling it was based on. They tried to replicate the finding, and did not get the same answer.

We speak to Andrew Mercer from the Pew Research Centre and YouGov chief scientist Douglas Rivers.

Presenter /series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Graham Puddifoot

Editor: Richard Vadon

How problems with opt-in polling can lead to controversial headlines

But do the cyber scams run from compounds in Cambodia really take an amount of money equivalent to half that country's GDP?

We investigate how the scale of these criminal operations has been calculated.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Reporter: Tom Colls

Production coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Andrew Garratt

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate the money made by an international cybercrime operations.

We investigate an estimate of the money made by an international cybercrime operation.

But when you understand how this number was calculated, and the range of possible answers for the amount of plastic you eat, you might not want to repeat it yourself.

Professor Jamie Woodward from the University of Manchester explains what's what.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham

Researcher: Ajai Singh

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: Giles Aspen

Editor: Richard Vadon

We look at whether humans really ingest five grams of microplastic on a weekly basis

We look at the calculations behind the widely reported statistic that we eat over five grams of microplastics each week

A huge quantity of clothing is produced every year around the world. But is so much made that there are already enough tops, trousers, skirts and all the rest to clothe humanity for decades into the future?

That's a claim that has been percolating around the internet recently, that there are already enough clothes for the next six generations.

Tim Harford and Beth Ashmead Latham explore the source of this claim and, with help from Sabina Lawreniuk from Nottingham University, find that the evidence behind it is far from persuasive.

Presenter: Tim Harford and Bethan Ashmead Latham

Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner

Editor: Richard Vadon

We delve into the stats on the scale of the fashion industry

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However, the idea that we see thousands of adverts is a strange and confusing one, without any good research behind it. We investigate the long history of these odd numbers, with the help of Sam Anderson from The Drum and J Walker Smith from Kantar.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: James Beard

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate the claim that each of us sees thousands of adverts every single day

Are office temperatures set too low in the summer for women to be comfortable?

This idea has featured in news headlines and comedy videos which describe the summer as a “women's winter ?.

But is there evidence behind the claims of a gender bias in air conditioning?

To find out, we speak to Gail Brager, Director of the Center for Environmental Design Research at UC Berkeley, and Boris Kingma, a senior researcher at TNO, the Netherlands Applied Research Institute.

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Nicholas Barrett

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge

Sound mix: James Beard

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate if air conditioning is set too cold for women.

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Multiple sources including the UN and National Geographic magazine have claimed this happens every two weeks. But we have reasons to be suspicious about that statistic.

Gary Simons, executive editor of the Ethnologue language catalogue, explains where this idea came from.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

Producer: Natasha Fernandes

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Nigel Appleton

Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith

Languages are disappearing. We investigate claims of how often this happens

We are living through boom-times for Artificial Intelligence, with more and more of us using AI assistants like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Grok and Copilot to do basic research and writing tasks. But what is the environmental impact of these technologies?

Many listeners have got in touch with More or Less to ask us to investigate various claims about the energy and water use of AI.

One claim in particular has caught your attention - the idea that the equivalent of a small bottle of drinking water is consumed by computer processors every time you ask an AI a question, or get it to write a simple email. So, where does that claim come from, and is it true?

Reporter: Paul Connolly

Producer: Tom Colls

Sound engineer: Donald McDonald

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Photo: Water spilling out of a bottle. Credit Yamada Taro/Getty Images)

We investigate how much water and power are used by artificial intelligence

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We look for the right way to think about the risks around exercise.

Reporter: Paul Connolly

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Picture: A cyclist training in the mountains

Credit: anton5146/Getty Creative)

We investigate the connection between high levels of exercise and arrhythmia

We investigate the connection between high levels of exercise and abnormal heart rhythm or arrhythmia.

With the help of Professor Bettina Renz from Nottingham University and Dr Richard Connolly from The Royal United Services Institute, Olga Smirnova investigates the figure.

Presenter: Tom Colls

Producer: Olga Smirnova

Production Co-ordinator Katie Morrison

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: Graham Puddifoot

Editor: Richard Vadon

Image: Russian Military Perform Victory Day Parade Night Rehearsal in Moscow credit: (Photo by Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images)

We investigate how much the Russian state is spending on the war in Ukraine.

Sound: Graham Puddifoot

(Photo: Russian military perform Victory Day parade night rehearsal in Moscow. Credit: Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images)

When people think of oil rich nations their mind generally goes to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the US.

But according to international statistics, the country with the largest oil reserves is Venezuela, with 300 billion barrels worth.

At their peak they produced over 3.5 million barrels of the stuff per day. However, due to lack of investment, sanctions and mismanagement that peak is long gone.

Following their military intervention, the US administration claims they can get Venezuela's oil production up and running at full capacity within 18 months.

But can they, and why is it that estimates for other countries oil reserves have fluctuated but Venezuela's has stayed at 300 billion barrels for over two decades?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Dave O'Neill

We investigate if there are actually 300 billion barrels of oil in Venezuela's reserves

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On the 29th April US President Donald Trump took to the stage in Michigan to celebrate his first 100 days in office.

This is a milestone in American politics, but is everything he claims the administration has achieved true?

The BBC's US National Digital Reporter Mike Wendling joins us to fact-check President Trump's claims on immigration, the stock market, fentanyl and - .eggs.

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Tom Colls

Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Jack Morris

Editor: Richard Vadon

Working out the reality behind President Trump's claims on immigration, fentanyl and eggs

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Sometimes it is obvious to everyone when an idea is harmful, or a piece of advice is damaging. But not always. Occasionally bad ideas and terrible advice end up being accepted in society and supported by people in authority.

In such circumstances, one of the most powerful tools for changing people's minds is evidence – scientific studies that show beyond doubt that the bad idea is, indeed, a bad idea.

That's the subject of a new book by Helen Pearson, titled Beyond Belief: How Evidence Shows What Really Works.

An editor at the scientific journal Nature in her day job, the book chronicles those determined individuals who shake up the status quo by gathering just the right kind of evidence.

One story in that book stood out to us on More or Less as it shows just what happens when you don't have the evidence you need to challenge a dangerous way of doing things.

It's the story of a piece of advice from childcare expert Dr Benjamin Spock.

In a 1958 revision of his bestselling parenting guide Baby and Childcare he made a small change to his advice on sleeping position – advising parents to put their babies to sleep on their front.

It eventually became clear that this sleeping position was associated with a significant increase in the risk of sudden infant death, or cot death.

CREDITS:

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Rod Farquhar

Editor: Richard Vadon

How evidence eventually showed front sleeping was linked to sudden infant deaths

[LISTEN NOW]

Picking Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a known vaccine sceptic, as the Secretary for Public Health might not be the most ‘out there' thing the Trump administration has done but it certainly raised some eyebrows.

Since his appointment Kennedy has been on a mission to ‘Make America Healthy again' and has set his sights on finding ‘the cure' for Autism.

Autism Spectrum Disorder is a neurological and developmental disorder that can affect how someone communicates, socialises, learns and behaves. In the 1980's one study estimated that 4 in 10,000 (1 in 2500) children in Wisconsin had an Autism diagnosis. Recent data from the Centres for Disease control states that 1 in 31 eight year olds in the US have the condition.

Why have the numbers gone up? Is it due to environmental toxins as Robert Kennedy suggests or does the answer lie in the counting?

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Studio Manager: Andrew Mills

Editor: Richard Vadon

Why has the rate of autism risen so dramatically in the last 30 years?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wants to find out why the rate of autism risen so dramatically in the last 30 years?

[LISTEN NOW]

Jeff Sackmann, the tennis stats brain behind tennisabstract.com, explains to Tim Harford how probability works in the sport.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Debbie Richford

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Nigel Appleton

Editor: Richard Vadon

How Federer became the best in the world winning just over half the points he played

How Roger Federer became the best tennis player in the world by winning just over half the points he played.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Jon Bithrey

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Engineer: David Crackles

(Picture: Claudia Goldin at Havard University

Credit: Reuters / Reba Saldanha)

Tim Harford discusses the work of Nobel Economics prize winner Claudia Goldin

Tim Harford discusses the groundbreaking work of Nobel Economics prize winner Claudia Goldin

Vlad III Dracula, the Wallachian Prince who became Bram Stokers inspiration behind his famous vampire 'Count Dracula,' was a brutal ruler.

So brutal that history dubbed him 'Vlad the Impaler' due to his penchant for that particularly gruesome form of execution. Which, without going into too much detail, involved driving a large stake or pole through someone's body - often vertically.

Chroniclers and historians claim that he impaled over 20,000 people during his reigns which, if true is a very, very big number. But is it true?

We speak to Historian Dénes Harai whose paper: 'Counting the Stakes: A Reassessment of Vlad III Dracula's Practice of Collective Impalements in Fifteenth-Century South-eastern Europe' attempts to set the record straight.

Let's travel back to 1431 to separate the math's from the myth.

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

Looking at the math's behind the myth

Looking at the math's behind the myth inspired by the Wallachian Prince Vlad III Dracula

[LISTEN NOW]

Have a million new species just been discovered?

That's the claim made by Dr Oliver Vince, co-founder of a company called Basecamp Research, who are collecting genetic data to train AI systems. The hope is that they'll be able to use this to discover new medicines.

But is this number a good one? Rob Finn, from the European Bioinformatics Institute, explains what is being counted and how you go about counting them.

Credits:

Presenter and producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Dave O'Neill

Editor: Richard Vadon

Investigating whether Basecamp Research found hundreds of thousands of bacteria species

[LISTEN NOW]

Just a few months in, some are hailing the falling rate of inflation as showing those measures are working.

Economist Monica de Bolle, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, explains whether that thinking is correct.

Presenter/producer: Tom Colls

Producer: Ajai Singh

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Graham Puddifoot

Editor: Richard Vadon.

What falling inflation means for Milei's austerity plan and economic shock measures

What the falling inflation rate means for President Milei's austerity plan and economic “shock ? measures.

It's been over three years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the human toll is growing on both sides.

Recently, politicians and journalists have declared a grim milestone, one million Russian casualties.

But is this number accurate?

Tim talks to Seth Jones, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Olga Ivshina, from the BBC Russian service, to investigate this statistic.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Nicholas Barrett

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Gareth Jones

Editor: Richard Vadon

Making sense of the numbers around the Russian dead and wounded.

[LISTEN NOW]

As negotiations to end the Ukraine war rumble on, Donald Trump seems equally interested in talking about the past, repeatedly claiming that the US has given much more aid to Ukraine than Europe has, and that Europe's aid took the form of a loan that they'll be getting back.

Emmanuel Macron has publicly contradicted the US President - so who's correct?

Nathan Gower speaks to Taro Nishikawa, project lead at the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker to get the true picture.

Presenter / Producer: Nathan Gower

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Engineer: James Beard

Donald Trump says the US has given Ukraine more aid than Europe - what does the data say?

Donald Trump says the US has given Ukraine $350 billion. The data doesn't agree with him.

[LISTEN NOW]

On the 25th January, the US Press Secretary announced that in their bid to stop ‘fraud' and waste DOGE had cancelled $50 million worth of condoms being sent to Gaza by the United States Agency for International Development (aka USAID).

President Trump later repeated this claim, adding on that Hamas were using said condoms to make bombs to fire at Israel.

On the 7th of February the USAID website was taken down.

We fact check this claim and find out how much of the US budget was spent on USAID programmes.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Research: Josh McMinn

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: David Crackles

Editor: Richard Vadon

Are Hamas bombing Israel with condoms sent by the US?

[LISTEN NOW]

Bernie Sanders says a vast amount of wealth - $50 trillion - has moved from 90% of the population to the wealthiest Americans since the 1970s.

The figure comes from a study by Carter Price, a senior mathematician at nonprofit research institute the RAND Corporation.

Tim Harford speaks to Carter to understand how he calculated his figures and what they really mean.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Nicolas Barrett

Series producer: Tom Colls

Sound mix: Giles Aspen

Editor: Richard Vadon

Bernie Sanders says vast riches have moved to the wealthiest in the US. Is he right?

Bernie Sanders says vast riches have moved to the wealthiest in the US since the 1970s. Is he right?

[LISTEN NOW]

But why? With the help of Saloni Dattani, a researcher at Our World in Data, Tim Harford explores how a gradual change in the way the data was gathered lies at the heart of the problem.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Debbie Richford

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: Emma Harth

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate changes to the way the US gathers their maternal mortality statistics

The US has been portrayed as in the grip of a maternal mortality crisis. We investigate how a gradual change in the way the data was gathered lies at the heart of the problem

In the early 2020s, a conspiracy theory started circulating online known as the “dead internet theory ?.

This suggested that, instead of a vibrant digital super-community where people freely share things like cat videos and conspiracy theories, the internet was instead basically dead - an AI dystopia controlled by the deep state, where almost everything you see and interact with is generated by computers.

The theory that the internet is 100% dead can be easily disproven, but the theory does hint at something real. The internet certainly is full of “bots ?, autonomous bits of software that are definitely not alive.

In this episode, we investigate one specific claim about the number of these bots on the internet - the idea that more than half of internet traffic is bots. Where does this claim come from, and is it true?

Presenter/producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Giles Aspen

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate the claim that bots make up 50% of internet traffic

[LISTEN NOW]

When you're listening to the news, you will often hear words that are meant to communicate the probability of something happening.

 A terrorist attack is “a realistic possibility ?, the spread of a certain strain of virus is “highly likely', the relegation of your favourite football team is “possible ?.

But when you hear these terms, do you really know what kind of probabilities they're trying to convey? Do you know how likely “likely ? is? Or what probability “probable ? is meant to get across?

In some cases, it seems you probably don't.

Professor Adam Kucharski, author of Proof, the Uncertain Science of Certainty, designed a quiz to work out the actual probabilities of the language we use to convey risks.

The data he got back shows how sometimes these words mean very different things to different people.

If you want to try the quiz for yourself, head over to https://probability.kucharski.io/

Email the More or Less team: moreorless@BBC.co.uk

CREDITS:

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Gareth Jones

Editor: Richard Vadon

Adam Kucharski explains what people really mean when they use probability language

[LISTEN NOW]

Are most Americans barely holding their head above water when it comes to personal finances?

That's what various US politicians and news outlets keep suggesting.

They can't stop using a statistic about people living “paycheck to paycheck ?.

But what does this really mean?

We go behind the headlines to unpick the numbers.

Contributor:

Ben Krauss, journalist

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound Engineer: Andrew Mills

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate a number that has been making headlines in the US.

[LISTEN NOW]

What is the cash value of a human life?

That's the question at the heart of The Price of Life, a book by journalist Jenny Kleeman.

It turns out that there's not just one price, there are many - depending on exactly how that life is being created, traded or destroyed.

Tim Harford talks to Jenny about what she discovered.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

The Price of Life author Jenny Kleeman on the cost of making and taking a life

[LISTEN NOW]

But is that number realistic? Professor Anna Sergi and Professor Francesco Calderoni help us figure out what kind of number makes sense.

Reporter: Perisha Kudhail

Series producer: Tom Colls

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Picture: Human hands with strings controlling diagram.

Credit: Boris Zhitkov/Getty Images)

We investigate whether one criminal group could have a turnover of billions of dollars

We investigate whether one criminal group could have a turnover of tens of billions of dollars.

As Artificial Intelligence continues to expand rapidly, some people have raised concerns about its potential environmental impact - in particular its use of water, which is used to cool both data centres and the power generators that supply them with electricity.

One recent book on AI contained the alarming prediction that AI could consume between 4 and 6 trillion litres a year by 2027. Could this eye-popping figure be right? If not, what is the correct figure, and is it a big number?

The devil, as ever, is in the detail, and with the help of expert Alex de Vries-Gao, the More or Loss team has taken a deep dive to get to the truth about AI and water consumption.

If you've seen a number in the news and you think More or Less should take a look, email the team on moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer / Reporter: Nathan Gower

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Dave O'Neil

Editor: Richard Vadon

We take a deep dive into AI's water consumption

[LISTEN NOW]

Untruths sneak into our lives in all kinds of ways. Sometimes they're outright lies. Blatant misinformation.

But in this episode, we're going to talk about something else - those sneaky numbers and claims that bounce around our society and that aren't exactly false, but are leading you down the wrong path.

That's the subject of a book called May Contain Lies by Alex Edmans, a professor of finance at London Business School.

Tim talks to Alex about the statistical claims that might not be wrong, but aren't right either – and how to make sure you aren't fooled by them yourself.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Andrew Garratt

Editor: Richard Vadon

Professor Alex Edmans on his book, May Contain Lies

[LISTEN NOW]

In early July, the Mediterranean Sea experienced a marine heatwave. The surface of the water reached temperatures of 30 degrees in some places.

A social media post at the time claimed that some of these sea temperatures were so different to the normal sea temperature at this time of year, that the sea was experiencing a “1 in 216,000,000,000-year sea temperature anomaly ?.

This would suggest that the likelihood of the event was on a timescale far longer than the amount of time the entire universe has existed.

Is the claim true? Dr Jules Kajtar, a physical oceanographer from the National Oceanography Centre, takes a look at the statistics.

We heard about this story because a listener spotted it and emailed the team. Get in touch if you've seen a number you think we should look at. moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

Did the Mediterranean experience a 1 in 216,000,000,000-year sea temperature anomaly?

[LISTEN NOW]

Modern sport can seem awash with money, but it's been claimed that the richest sportsperson of all is an ancient Roman Charioteer from the second century AD called Gaius Appuleius Diocles, with career winnings that stood at 35 million sesterces. One calculation has translated that into an astonishing $15 billion dollars today, and it's a figure that's stuck. But should we believe it?

Duncan Weldon talks to ancient historian Professor Mary Beard from the University of Cambridge to learn more about the big business of chariot racing, and how we should think about money and wealth in the economies of the past.

Presenter: Duncan Weldon

Producer: Nathan Gower

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Engineer: James Beard

Did a Roman charioteer really earn the equivalent of $15 billion dollars?

[LISTEN NOW]

The vast island of Greenland has found itself at the centre of a geopolitical crisis. But a little bit of geography can help us see the situation in a new light.

YouTuber and map expert Jay Foreman explains how Mercator maps - the maps that the vast majority of us use to understand the world - contain necessary but massive distortions and hugely exaggerate the size of the Arctic island.

So, why is making a flat map of a round globe so difficult? Why did we end up with a problematic map in the first place? And are there any alternatives?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Nathan Gower

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford asks if Greenland is really as vast as most maps seem to suggest

[LISTEN NOW]

That's what one listener asked, following a terrifying turbulence incident which left one person dead and more than 20 injured on a flight to Singapore.

We speak to turbulence expert Paul Williams, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, to understand what is going on.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

Producer: Nathan Gower

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Nigel Appleton

Editor: Richard Vadon

Exploring the link between bumpy flights and climate change.

But is this true? Tim Harford looks into the claim with the help of Cardiologist Dr Donald Lloyd-Jones, chair of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Northwestern University in the US.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Debbie Richford

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Nigel Appleton

Editor: Richard Vadon

Investigating research which suggested time restricted eating increased the risk of death

Investigating research which suggested that time restricted eating increased the risk of death from cardiovascular disease.

On September the 10th 2025, right-wing political activist and media personality Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at an event in Utah.

In the aftermath, his friend JD Vance, the US Vice President, hosted a special memorial edition of ‘The Charlie Kirk Show', live from the White House, during which he called for unity, but said that could only be found by “climbing the mountain of truth ?.

“While our side of the aisle certainly has its crazies, it is a statistical fact that most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left, ? he said.

We investigate the statistical evidence around political violence – both in people's attitudes and the crimes themselves.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Reporter: Lizzy McNeill

Series producer: Tom Colls

Sound mix: Hal Haines

Editor: Richard Vadon

Following the murder of Charlie Kirk, what is the data on political violence in the US?

Following the assassination of Charlie Kirk, we look at the statistics around political violence in the US.

[LISTEN NOW]

We trace this stat back to its source and speak to the scientist behind the original research on which it is based, Professor Julianne Holt-Lunstad.

Presenter / series producer: Tom Colls

Reporter: Perisha Kudhail

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Graham Puddifoot

Editor: Richard Vadon

The connection between being alone and an early death

The statistical connection between being alone and an early death.

We speak to Dr Hilary Cass, the author of the review, Prof Catherine Hewitt of York University, who analysed the scientific research, and Kamran Abbasi, editor in chief of the British Medical Journal.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: James Beard

Editor: Richard Vadon

Investigating claims that the Cass Review ignored 98% of valuable evidence

Investigating claims that the Cass Review into gender identity services for under-18s in England's NHS ignored the vast majority of evidence.

With the help of Johan Norberg, Historian and Author of ideas and Felix Salmon, Financial Correspondent at Axios, we explore the figures behind the wealth of the richest and uncover what it really tells us about the world's financial markets.

And Charles Kenny, senior fellow at the Centre for Global Development in Washington DC, helps us unpick why, when looking at the world's poorest people, measurements of wealth don't always tell us what we really need to know.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Debbie Richford

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: Hal Haines

Editor: Richard Vadon

(image: Elon Musk at the Viva Tech fair in Paris June 2023. Credit: Nathan Laine/Getty Images)

We investigate how Oxfam use wealth stats to illustrate global inequality

We investigate how Oxfam use wealth stats to illustrate the inequality between the world's richest five people and poorest 5 billion.

But satellite data tells a different story.

We investigate the correct number, with the help of Dr Chi Chen, from Rutgers University in the US.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Giles Aspen

Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith

Jordan Peterson says Earth has greened by 20% in 20 years. Is he right?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Debbie Richford

Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

Picture Credit: vchal via Getty

Tim Harford investigates the claim that public speaking is people's number one fear.

Is public speaking really people's number one fear? Tim Harford tracks the claim back to the 1970's and explores whether it was true then, and whether it's true today.

In a much-repeated claim, often sourced to a 2002 OECD report, it is suggested that it makes the biggest difference there is – that reading for pleasure is the biggest factor in future success.

But is that true? We speak to Miyako Ikeda from the OECD and Professor Alice Sullivan from University College London.

Presenter / series producer: Tom Colls

Reporter / producer: Debbie Richford

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Graham Puddifoot

Editor: Richard Vadon

What research says about the connection between reading and success in later life.

What the research says about the connection between reading engagement and someone's success in later life.

The US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr is on a mission to make America healthy again.One of his health-promotion ideas is to reduce chronic illness, specifically diabetes. And has part of his campaign he said that: 'a typical pediatrician would see one case of diabetes in his lifetime, over a 40 or 50 year career. Today, 1 out of every 3 kids who walks through his office door is prediabetic or diabetic. Twenty years ago, there was no diabetes in China, today 50% of the population is diabetic' Diabetes does carry a huge burden of health, but are his numbers right and how much of a problem is diabetes in the US and around the globe?We speak to diabetes expert and co-author of the Diabetes Atlas, Professor Dianna Magliano to find out more. Presenter: Tim HarfordProducer: Lizzy McNeillSeries Producer: Tom CollsStudio Manager: Rod FarquharEditor: Richard Vadon

Investigating if 50% of people in China really have diabetes.

[LISTEN NOW]

Around the world, many countries are concerned about tackling the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates.

The US is no exception.

To tackle this issue the US government announced that it would provide subsidies for Americans seeking IVF treatment. The announcement was accompanied by one suspect sounding stat from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Today the average teenager in this country has 50% of the sperm count, 50% of the testosterone as a 65-year-old man,' he said.

We speak to Professor Allan Pacey, Professor of Andrology at the University of Manchester, and Adith Arun, a researcher at Yale University to find out whether this statement is accurate.

Producer/Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Mix: James Beard

Do US teens have 50% lower sperm and testosterone counts than 65 year old men?

[LISTEN NOW]

Every two years, the UN release their predictions for the future population of humanity – currently expected to peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion people.

One of the things they use to work this out is the fertility rate, the number of children the average woman is expected to have in her lifetime. When this number falls below 2, the overall population eventually falls.

In this episode of More or Less, we look at the fertility estimates for one country – Argentina. The graph of the real and predicted fertility rate for that country looks quite strange.

The collected data – that covers up to the present day – shows a fertility rate that's falling fast. But the predicted rate for the future immediately levels out.

The strangeness has led some people to think that the UN might be underestimating the current fall in global fertility.

To explain what's going on we speak to Patrick Gerland, who runs the population estimates team in the United Nations Population Division.

Presenter / producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Sue Maillot

Editor: Richard Vadon

How one graph shows the conservative side of the United Nations' population estimates

[LISTEN NOW]

When you follow the news, particularly in countries like the UK and the US, it sometimes feels like people are less optimistic about their lives than they were in the past.

But a new piece of analysis from polling company Gallup suggests this might just be the local view, not the global one.

Using data from the Gallup World Poll, it suggests that “people in more countries are living better lives and expressing more hope for the future ? than at any point in the last decade.

Tim Harford speaks to Gallup's Benedict Vigers, who wrote the report, to understand what improvements in the “global median for thriving ? really means.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford

Series producer: Tom Colls

Sound mix: Bob Nettles

Editor: Richard Vadon

Exploring global polling data that suggests people in more countries are 'thriving

Exploring global polling data from Gallup that suggests people in more countries are 'thriving

[LISTEN NOW]

Exactly how many people live on our planet is one of those difficult-to-answer questions. The UN estimates is 8.2 billion, but that's largely based on census data, which is certainly not a perfect measure.

So when a recent study from Finland found that rural populations around the world had been underestimated by 50 to over 80%, the media got quite excited. This would be a big error - a 50% underestimate would mean the actual number of people in an area is double the number they thought there were.

One newspaper in Spain - El Mundo - did its own sums and said this meant there were potentially 2 billion more people in the world than we currently think there are.

But is it what the researchers in Finland actually meant?

“Absolutely not, ? says Josias Lang-Ritter, a researcher from University in Finland and a co-author of the study.

Tim Harford speaks to Josias to figure out the right way of understanding the study.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Caroline Bayley

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Nigel Appleton

Editor: Richard Vadon

Investigating if the global population is really 2 billion higher than previously thought

[LISTEN NOW]

For months, the share prices of tech companies have marched seemingly-ever upward, driven by fevered excitement about the potential of Artificial Intelligence. But many are now voicing fears that this surge might turn out to be a bubble, which could burst with damaging effects.

So do we have to rely on vibes? Or can we use data to tell us about the risk that AI might go pop?

Nathan Gower discovers what the numbers tell us about the health of the stock market.

Guests:

Katie Martin, markets columnist at the Financial Times

Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment company Panmure Liberum

Presenter and Producer: Nathan Gower

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Engineer: Andy Mills

Can data tell us if a stock market crash is coming?

[LISTEN NOW]

As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine's rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground?

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer and Editor: Richard Vadon

Studio Manager: James Beard

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Trump wants access to Ukraine's Rare Earth deposits.

Trump wants access to Ukraine's Rare Earth deposits after highlighting all the aid the US has supplied to Ukraine's war effort.

[LISTEN NOW]

Chelsea striker Liam Delap has recently stunned fans on Instagram by apparently doing incredibly complicated calculations in his head, finding what's known as the cube root of some very large numbers.

But is he really a human calculator? Or is there something else going on? Tim Harford speaks to Rob Eastaway, mathematician and author of ‘Maths on the Back of an Envelope' to learn about the trick you can use to pull this off - and while he's here we also ask him about the trend of more goals being scored in the Premier League.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producers: Nathan Gower

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Engineer: James Beard

Credit: Video of Liam Delap from Chelsea's Instagram account, chelseafc

Is Chelsea's Liam Delap a maths genius? Or has he got a trick up his sleeve?

[LISTEN NOW]

On the campaign trail for the US presidency, former president Donald Trump has been saying that the US is becoming a more dangerous than Venezuela.

He also claims that the crime data for the US that the FBI collects is missing the most violent cities.

Is he right? Tim Harford investigates, with the help of Bastian Herre from Our World in Data and Jay Albanese from Virginia Commonwealth University.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner

Editor: Richard Vadon

Donald Trump says Venezuela is becoming safer than the US. Is he right?

[LISTEN NOW]

Do you ever have fights with your partner about who does more of the housework and whether it's fair? Well data might have the answer.

Corinne Low is an associate professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She analyses surveys of how people spend their time, particularly in terms of “home production ? - that is things like cooking and cleaning, and “market work ?, that is, paid work. She has written two books on the subject - Femonomics in the UK, and Having It All in the US.

If you are the male half of a heterosexual couple, then she has got some stats you should hear.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Series producer: Tom Colls

Sound engineer: Giles Aspen

Production co-ordinator: Janet Staples

Editor: Richard Vadon

Corinne Low explains the economics of women, men and housework

Femonomics author Corinne Low explains the economics of women, men and housework.

[LISTEN NOW]

In his new book, On The Edge, he makes the case that people willing to take massive calculated risks are winning in the modern economy.

Tim Harford talks to Nate about the mindset that's driving hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and silicon valley investors.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham

Series producer: Tom Colls

Sound mix: Nigel Appleton

Poker player and polling analyst Nate Silver on his new book

Poker player and polling superstar Nate Silver on his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

[LISTEN NOW]

Tim Harford talks to data scientist Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, author of Who Makes the NBA?: Data-Driven Answers to Basketball's Biggest Questions.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Debbie Richford

Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: David Crackles

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Image: Charlotte Hornets v New York Knicks. Credit: Focus on Sport/Getty Images)

How much does a man's height affect his chances of becoming an NBA basketball player?

How much does a man's height affect his chances of becoming a professional basketball player in the NBA? Tim Harford talks to Seth Stephens-Davidowitz to slam dunk the numbers.

In Autumn 2025 a paper in South Korea was published that excited many a vaccine sceptic online. The paper claimed that receiving a vaccination against Covid19 was linked to a 27% increase in cancer risk.

However, when you dig into the data there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the cancer. We spoke to Professor Justin Fendos to explain why we cannot take this type of statistical analysis at face value.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: James Beard

Why a study from South Korea does not show that vaccines cause cancer

[LISTEN NOW]

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have been awarded this year's Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.

The three are sharing 11 million Swedish kronor, over a million dollars, after being recognised for their work in the area of “innovation-driven economic growth ?. But why does this area matter and what did the three economists actually do? Presenter Tim Harford explains it all.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Reporter: Tim Harford

Series producer: Tom Colls

Sound engineer: Donald MacDonald

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Image credit: Johan Jarnestad/The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences)

Tim Harford explains the ideas behind the winners of the economics Nobel Prize

Tim Harford explains the ideas behind the winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.

[LISTEN NOW]

The question of why some countries are rich and some poor has been described as the most important question in economics.

Perhaps that is why the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on the importance of institutions in the economic fortunes of nation states.

Tim Harford explains the economic theory that underpins their award.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Reporter: Tim Harford

Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: Giles Aspen

Editor: Richard Vadon

Image: The door to the Swedish Academy is pictured ahead of the announcement of the laureate of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Literature in Stockholm, Sweden (Photo by JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP via Getty Images)

Why Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics

[LISTEN NOW]

We asked and you responded, this edition of ‘numbers of the year' are from you. our loyal listeners. We scoured the inboxes to find three fascinating numbers that say something about the world we live in now and put them to our experts.

Tune if you want to hear about rising global temperatures, what Taylor Swift has in common with 65 years olds and facts about fax (machines).

Contributors:

Amanda Maycock, University of Leeds

Jennifer Dowd, University of Oxford

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Reporter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar.

Our listeners favourite numbers of 2024.

Did we break the Paris agreement and is the German economy run by fax?

[LISTEN NOW]

Here they are - from the population of India to the results of a first division football match.

Contributors:

Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University

Rob Eastaway, maths author

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Picture: Colourful numbers on blue background

Credit: Tanja Ivanova / Getty Images)

Hand-picked stats that tell you something interesting about the world

Hand-picked stats on energy, population and first division football that tell you something interesting about the world.

It's that time of year again, the time when we ask some of our favourite statistically-inclined people for their numbers of the year.

We present them to you - from falling birth rates in India to children saved by vaccines.

Contributors:

RukminiS, Data for India

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University,

Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Vicky Baker

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Engineer: Donald McDonald and Rod Farquhar

We ask experts about their favourite stats from 2024.

What rate does the number 2 describe in India?

[LISTEN NOW]

We look back at some stand out numbers of 2025. How significant were Trump's import tariffs? China sets the pace for solar power installation across the globe. We also look upwards to a particularly speedy comet - 3i Atlas.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld

Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele

Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar

Editor: Richard Vadon

From tariffs to comets, we look back at the numbers of 2025 across the world

[LISTEN NOW]

From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men's football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026 might have in store for us - numerically of course.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld

Production Co-ordinator: Sabine Schereck

Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar

Editor: Richard Vadon

From passenger numbers to world cup travel, we cast our eye forwards into 2026

[LISTEN NOW]

We asked and you responded. This edition of ‘numbers of the year' are from you, our loyal listeners. We scoured the inboxes to find three fascinating numbers that say something about the world we live in now and put them to our experts.

Tune if you want to hear about rising global temperatures, what Taylor Swift has in common with 65 years olds and facts about fax (machines).

Contributors:

Amanda Maycock, University of Leeds

Jennifer Dowd, University of Oxford

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Reporter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound engineer: Rod Farquhar

Our listeners' favourite numbers of 2024

Our listeners' favourite numbers of 2024. Did we break the Paris agreement, and is the German economy run by fax?

[LISTEN NOW]

Paul Ehrlich's bestselling book The Population Bomb opens with an apocalyptic paragraph.

“The battle to feed all of humanity is over, ? it states. “In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate. ?

Professor Ehrlich, who died last week, made a simple argument. The global population was outrunning our capacity to produce enough food to feed everyone. Famine, disease and nuclear Armageddon would follow if the population was not controlled.

The book made him a celebrity, and he regularly spoke in public, warning of the imminent threat to humanity.

Sometimes his warnings were quite vague in terms of the timescale, but other times not - he was reported as saying in 1968 that if current trends continued, by the year 2000, the UK would be a “small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people'.

If I were a gambler,' he was quoted as saying, 'I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000'.

But the UK did not collapse, the global death rate did not increase, and we have more food per person now than when he wrote the book.

So, what went wrong with Paul Ehrlich's predictions of a population apocalypse?

If you've seen a number or claim that you think More or Less should look at, email moreorless@BBC.co.uk

CONTRIBUTORS

Vincent Geloso, Assistant Professor of economics at George Mason University

Darrell Bricker, global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs and co-author of Empty Planet, the Shock of Global Population Decline

Peter Alexander, Professor of Global Food Systems at the University of Edinburgh

CREDITS:

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Dave O'Neil

Editor: Richard Vadon

Why Paul Ehrlich's dire predictions about a population collapse failed to materialise

[LISTEN NOW]

Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it's going to go up more, because the atmosphere is already full of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and we're continuing to add to that stock. Quite how much it will increase by is a very important question for all of us.

Until relatively recently, during much of the 2010s and into the 2020s, many scientists claimed that if we kept on going down the path we were on, if we just kept on with business as usual, then by the end of the century global temperatures would increase by almost five degrees centigrade.

This projection was based on something called RCP 8.5, a statistical scenario used by scientists to model the future of the climate.

You can still find scientific papers published in 2025 that make the same claim. However, there's a good case that RCP 8.5 should never have been used as the business-as-usual scenario. And in hindsight it doesn't look like an accurate vision of the future at all.

So what's going on?

Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and the climate research lead at Stripe, explains the argument.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Series producer: Tom Colls

Sound mix: Donald MacDonald

Editor: Richard Vadon

How an important climate model was too pessimistic about the future

[LISTEN NOW]

Tim Harford explains his ideas and influence.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Series producer: Tom Colls

Sound mix: Hal Haines

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford on the great social scientist, who has died at the age of 90

Tim Harford on the Nobel prize-winning behavioural economist, who has died at the age of 90.

In the later part of the 20th century, a pioneering group of economists started shaking up their academic field. These “behavioural economists ? used findings from experimental psychology and everyday life to challenge the prevailing view that human beings were rational decision makers – acting in predictable ways to maximize their wealth.

One of those pioneers was Richard Thaler, who noted down some of these “anomalies ? in a column in the 1980s, which was turned into a book - The Winner's Curse - first published in 1992. His work also won him the Nobel memorial prize in economics in 2017.

More than 30 years on, he has returned to that book, publishing a new, updated version with co-author Alex Imas, which looks at whether those anomalies in rational thinking have stood the test of time.

Tim asks him to set out two of his most famous ideas – the winner's curse itself, and the idea of “mental accounting ?.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: Donald MacDonald

Editor: Richard Vadon

Richard Thaler on two of his most famous observations in behavioural economics

Richard Thaler, winner of the Nobel memorial prize in economics, on two of his most famous observations in behavioural economics

[LISTEN NOW]

Rob Eastaway, author of Much Ado about Numbers, tells Tim Harford about the simple maths that brings Shakespeare's work to life.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Readings: Stella Harford and Jordan Dunbar

Producer: Beth Ashmead-Latham

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: James Beard

Editor: Richard Vadon

Author Rob Eastaway on the numbers in Shakespeare's writing

Author Rob Eastaway on the numbers in William Shakespeare's plays and sonnets

In Autumn 2025 a paper in South Korea was published that excited many a vaccine sceptic online. The paper claimed that receiving a vaccination against Covid19 was linked to a 27% increase in cancer risk.

However, when you dig into the data there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the cancer. We spoke to Professor Justin Fendos to explain why we cannot take this type of statistical analysis at face value.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound engineer: James Beard

Influencers claim that this study shows that covid jabs cause cancer. That is not true

Influencers claim that a study from South Korea shows that covid jabs cause cancer. That is not true.

[LISTEN NOW]

But how faithful is the Netflix show - and original novel - to the actual physics?

Dr Anna Lisa Varri from the University of Edinburgh explains what we can and can't say about the complex and beautiful motions of planets, stars and moons, and brings a dose of scientific facts to science fiction.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

Producer: Nathan Gower

Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

Editor: Richard Vadon

(UIG/Science Photo Library/ Credit: Getty images)

Is the physics in Netflix's new show accurate?

Explaining the real life physics problem at the heart of Netflix's new show.

In early February 2025, something strange started happening across US government websites. Decades of data began disappearing from webpages for agencies such as the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health and the Census Bureau. In many cases the entire website went dark.

Within a few days some 8,000 government pages and 3,000 datasets had been taken down. Since then, many have been reinstated - but some have not.

We speak to Professors Maggie Levenstein and John Kubale to find out why this data was taken away, and why any of it matters.

If you spot any numbers or statistical claims that you think we should check out contact: moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Sound engineer: Neil Churchill

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge

Editor: Richard Vadon

Why does it matter that US government datasets are being deleted and discontinued?

[LISTEN NOW]

A system called OpenSAFELY has been designed to solve this problem, with the help of a computer code “robot ?.

Professor Ben Goldacre, director of the Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science at the University of Oxford, explains how it works.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Janet Staples

Sound mix: Hal Haines

Editor: Charlotte McDonald

Ben Goldacre on OpenSAFELY, protecting patient privacy while analysing health data

Professor Ben Goldacre on OpenSAFELY, a system to let researchers investigate medical data while keeping its secrets safe

How does economics help us understand conflicts through history?

That's the question that economist and journalist Duncan Weldon tries to answer in his new book, Blood and Treasure.

Tim talks to Duncan about the economic perspective on Viking raiders, Spanish conquest and the Vietnam war.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

Economist and author Duncan Weldon on his new book Blood and Treasure

[LISTEN NOW]

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Debbie Richford

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Picture: A couple with their back to each other busy with their mobile phones

Credit: Martin DM / Getty)

Tim Harford investigates the growing political divergence between young men and women.

Tim Harford investigates the growing political divergence between young men and women around the world.

The ‘Love Triangle' author talks to Tim Harford about the maths used in GPS, architecture and special effects.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Debbie Richford

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Nigel Appleton

Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford interviews Matt Parker on his latest book 'Love Triangle

Tim Harford speaks to Dr Kate Kitagawa, co-author of The Secret Lives of Numbers, to explore the long history of mathematical advances and innovation across civilisations and centuries, from the female mathematician at court in imperial China to the pioneers in the mathematical powerhouses of the Middle East in the first millennium AD.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Jon Bithrey

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound engineer: James Beard

(Photo: Statue of Al Khwarizmi, a ninth century mathematician. Credit: Mel Longhurst/Getty Images)

A global history of mathematics, from ancient China to the Middle East

A global history of mathematics, from ancient China to the mathematical powerhouse of the Middle East

Here at More or Less we'll all about the facts. Every day we use a toolkit of known proofs to try and answer our listeners' questions. But who do we have to thank for this toolkit and how did they set about proving the unknown?

Luckily for us mathematician Adam Kucharski has just written a book about this very topic called ‘Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty'.

Join us to hear more about some of the proof pioneers included in his book, from estimating the number of German tanks during WW2 to an unsung heroine of statistics.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner

Professor Adam Kucharski on his new book, Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

[LISTEN NOW]

Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion?

That's the subject of Alex Bellos' new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive.

Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison and Janet Staples

Sound mix: Donald MacDonald

Editor: Richard Vadon

Alex Bellos sets Tim Harford logical conundrums designed to deceive

[LISTEN NOW]

A loyal listener wrote in to question this claim made by neuroscientist Dr Daniel Levitin: 'Here in the US valium in a pharmacy might be $3 that same pill in a hospital setting might be $750.

Our listener was shocked at how one pill can cost 250 x more in a hospital setting than in a pharmacy. But can it? Sort of.

We turned to Elisabeth Rosenthal to take us on a dive into the frankly shocking world of US Health costs.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele

Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Can the same pill cost $3 in a pharmacy and $750 in a hospital?

[LISTEN NOW]

In most sports, men compete against men and women compete against women. That is generally considered fair, because men are faster, more powerful and have greater endurance.

But there is an ongoing controversy about transgender women - people who were born male and now identify as women. Is it fair for them to compete in the women's sport category or do they have an advantage?

A study in the British Journal of Sports Medicine recently added to the debate with an analysis that found the strength and fitness of transgender women is “comparable ? with that of women.

More or Less looks into the research to explain what it does, and does not, say.

Contributors:

Professor Alun Williams, Manchester Metropolitan University

Credits:

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Reporter: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Gareth Jones

Editor: Richard Vadon

Investigating a scientific paper analysing the strength and fitness of transgender women

[LISTEN NOW]

US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on global trade, adding taxes of as much as 50% to imports from some countries.

The tariffs, he says, are “reciprocal ? – calculated to address currency manipulation and trade barriers that other countries place on the US.

However, when you look at how the new tariffs were actually calculated, that claim does not add up.

Tim Harford speaks to Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, to understand what is going on.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

Explaining the maths and economics of the US 'Liberation Day' tariffs

[LISTEN NOW]

Presenter: Tim Harford

Reporter: Lucy Proctor

Producers: Nathan Gower and Debbie Richford

Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Image: Male and female running together up a mountain trail credit: nattrass via getty)

Is it really true that in extremely long races, women run faster than men?

Tim Harford and Lucy Proctor investigate the claim that when a running race is 195 miles long, women are faster than men.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is one of the great communicators of probability and uncertainty.

His new book, The Art of Uncertainty, explains how to approach uncertainty, luck, probability and ignorance.

Tim Harford talks to Sir David about double yoked eggs, the Bay of Pigs, and his top tips for politicians who want to communicate evidence and uncertainty.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: John Scott

Editor: Richard Vadon

Image: Portrait of mathematician and Risk guru, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter (Photo by In Pictures Ltd./Corbis via Getty Images)

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter on his new book, The Art of Uncertainty

[LISTEN NOW]

On Saturday 28th February, the US and Israel launched a military attack on Iran, targeting the country's missile infrastructure, military sites and leadership.

In response, Iran launched a wave of strikes across the region, including on Israel and the Gulf states.

Iran has a stockpile of ballistic missiles, which it's firing at neighbouring countries. These countries in turn are using interceptor missiles to try and shoot them down.

But is it clear who will run out of missiles first?

Contributor:

Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center

Credits:

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Tom Brignell

Editor: Richard Vadon

What we know about missile stockpiles following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran

[LISTEN NOW]

Warren Buffett has announced he is stepping down as CEO of his company, Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett is one of the richest people in the world, and is widely held up as the greatest investor who ever lived. He's also been remarkably critical of other masters of the financial universe.

Tim Harford talks to Financial Times journalist Robin Wigglesworth, author of the book Trillions, about Buffett's money making method, and how he used a massive bet to make a point about hedge funds.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Giles Aspen

Editor: Richard Vadon

How retiring Berkshire Hathaway boss Warren Buffett made his money and made a point

[LISTEN NOW]

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth.

Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.

The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero.

Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Hal Haines

Editor: Richard Vadon

Why the likelihood of planetary impact changed as asteroid 2024 YR4 approached.

[LISTEN NOW]

The great theories of economics seem to have great explanatory power, but the actual world is often far too complicated and messy to fully test them out.

Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at the London School of Economics has an answer – sport. In the contained setting of competitive sport, he says, the rules are clear and you know who is doing what. This means, with some analysis, you can see vibrant illustrations of well-known economic theories playing out before your eyes.

Ignacio talks to Tim Harford about some of his favourite economic theories, demonstrated in action in sporting competition.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Natasha Fernandes

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: John Scott

Editor: Richard Vadon

From loss aversion to game theory, how sports provide evidence for economic theories

[LISTEN NOW]

Presenter: Ben Carter

Reporter/Producer: Perisha Kudhail

Series Producer: Jon Bithrey

Editor: Richard Vadon

Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

(Photo: Dead insects on a windshield

Credit: shanecotee / Getty)

We ask whether the 'windscreen phenomenon' suggests falling numbers of insects

You may have seen a map circulated on social media that claims to show the average IQ of different nations.

If you look closely these numbers vary dramatically, with incredibly low scores in developing countries, including many in Africa.

Unsurprisingly the map is often used as a way to bolster arguments about racial or national superiority.

However, when you look at the data behind the claims the whole thing falls apart. We dive into the methods behind the map and ask whether it's even possible to accurately put a number on intelligence.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Studio Manager: James Beard

Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown

We investigate maps that suggest extremely low average IQs in developing countries

[LISTEN NOW]

We speak to polar climate scientist Professor Julienne Stroeve to better understand how to read the ice data.

Presenter / producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

Arctic ice has been in long decline. Do recent fluctuations change the story?

Arctic sea ice has been in decline for decades. Do recent fluctuations change the story?

Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours, and since the end of the Second World War that's exactly what the US and Canada have been. They've enjoyed free trade agreements, close knit economic ties - and not so friendly ice hockey matches.

But recently this relationship has soured, with President Trump calling them “one of the nastiest countries to deal with ?. It looks like the era of mostly free trade is over, with a raft of tariffs set to come into force on April the 2nd, or “liberation day ? a Donald Trump calls it.

But is President Trump right about the trading relationship between the two countries? What does he mean when he claims that “the US subsidises Canada $200 billion a year ??

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Studio manager: Andrew Mills

Does the US subsidise Canada $200 billion a year and why does Trump call them nasty?

With tariffs on the horizon, we look at the economic data on the US trade deficit with Canada

[LISTEN NOW]

But which is the right number, and why are so many people leaving?

We speak to Dr Emily Morris from University College London and Dr Jorge Duany from the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: Sue Maillot

Editor: Richard Vadon

We investigate the collapse in the Caribbean island's population.

We talk to Erica York from the Tax Foundation about how tariffs work and who ends up paying for them.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producers: Kate Lamble and Beth Ashmead Latham

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

Sound mix: Steve Greenwood

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Image: U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Xi Jinping, China's president, shake hands during a news conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Thursday, Nov. 9, 2017.Credit Qilai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

We look at Donald Trump's claim that tariffs are a tax on other countries

On Friday 1st August the US Bureau of Labor Statistics put out their job report data for August. It included revisions to their estimates for the jobs created in May and June which stated there were 258,000 fewer jobs than they had previously estimated.

This news was not received well by the White House. President Trump fired the head of the bureau, Erika McEntarfer, calling the numbers ‘phony, rigged, a scam' and spreading conspiracy theories that McEntarfer had fudged the data.

We speak to economist Michael Strain from the American Enterprise Institute, to understand why the revisions happened and the potential consequences of throwing doubt on one of the US's most important statistical agencies.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Sam Bonham

The US president fired Erika McEntarfer over job numbers. What's the potential fallout?

The US president fired Erika McEntarfer, head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over job numbers. What's the potential fallout?

[LISTEN NOW]

Manchester United are terrible, even according to their own manager. Last season saw their worst ever performance in Premier League history.

But at the same time, according to Forbes magazine, they're still the second most valuable football club in the world.

How is that possible?

Tim talks to Kieran Maguire, a football finance expert and the author of The Price of Football, to find out the secret of Manchester United's financial success.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Nicholas Barrett

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Neil Churchill

Editor: Richard Vadon

How a successful football club doesn't always require a winning team

Why a truly global football club doesn't need to win trophies to stay on top.

[LISTEN NOW]

This would mean that only heart disease and cancer killed more people than the very people trying to treat these diseases.

But there are good reasons to be suspicious about the claim.

Professor Mary Dixon-Woods, director of The Healthcare Improvement Studies Institute, or THIS Institute, at Cambridge University, explains what's going on.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Nigel Appleton

Editor: Richard Vadon

Investigating how many deaths are caused by mistakes by doctors and nurses

Investigating how many deaths are caused by mistakes by doctors and nurses in the US.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the world faces a severe labour shortage – 50 million workers by the end of the decade.

The boss of the world's most valuable company thinks humanoid robots will be needed to fill the gap.

But is this prediction based on solid evidence?

Tim Harford looks at the calculations behind the claim with Rajiv Gupta, a technology expert at Boston Consulting Group, who is the likely source of the 50 million figure.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@BBC.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford

Producer: Nicholas Barrett

Series producer: Tom Colls

Sound mix: Hal Haines

Editor: Richard Vadon

Is Nvidia boss Jensen Huang right about a looming labour shortfall?

[LISTEN NOW]

But where do these predictions come from and are they realistic?

We investigate the idea that floods, droughts, storms and sea level rise will cause a mass migration of people across borders.

Reporter and Producer: Tom Colls

Sound Mix: James Beard

Editor: Richard Vadon

(Photo: Floods in central Somalia

Credit: Said Yusuf - WARSAME/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

We investigate if floods, droughts and storms will cause mass international migration